Before anything else, here is a brief overview of how the Socialist Party works. It’s intricate and complex.

Hierarchy

• 161,404 militants (members)
• about 4,000 sections (uniting militants in cities, factory, neighborhood. Atleast 5 members with an elected leader).
• 102 Federations (One for each department and one for French citizens abroad. Led by an elected first secretary). A lot of the sections are led by influential party bosses (Guerini comes to mind in the very powerful Bouches-du-Rhone federation).
• 306 councillors in the National Council (the party’s Parliament that meets 4 times a year. Composed of 102 federal first secretaries and 204 members designated during party congresses)
• Bureau etc. (57 members in the bureau, between 20-30 in the secretariat) are designated by the Nat. Council on the advice of the first secretary
• First Secretary elected by militants in the sections.

Dates

• September 23, 2008: Limit date for deposing motions to the National Council.
• November 6, 2008: Sections vote on motions. The federal congresses then designate delegates to go to the Congress, based proportionally on the motions results.
• November 14-16, 2008: Congress in Reims. In 2005, there were 614 delegates plus 849 members by right (council and bureau members, MNAs, Senators).That figure is slightly higher based on PS gains in the Nat Assembly and Senate.
• November 20-21, 2008: Leadership election by militants in sections.
• November 22, 2008: Bureau and Secretariat designated by the National Council on the advice of the leader.

So, the 102 federations voted on Thursday for motions, there were six motions in the running:

• Royal’s motion (led by Gerard Collomb, Mayor of Lyon). Basically a personality cult with no ideology.
• Delanoe’s motion. Reformist, moderate, and social liberal (the L-word which is like the F-word in the PS). Also, the establishment’s motion (Hollande, Rocard, Ayrault, Jospin).
• Aubry’s motion. Unholy alliance of Fabiusists and Aubry lefties.
• Hamon’s motion. Quasi-Trot, eurosceptic, and left-wing motion. Comparable to the NPS motion in 2005.
• Utopia motion (which got 1.02% in 2005). Trots, alterglobalization and other kooks.
• a miscellaneous “ecologist pole”. Eco-socialists.

The results were very surprising: Royal 29.1%, Aubry 24.41%, Delanoë 24.91%, Hamon 18.66%. Greenies and Utopia below 2%. Firstly, polls indicated that Delanoë had a strong lead and Royal and Aubry were in battle for second position. They had Hamon between 1% and 6%. Firstly, Royal obviously still holds sway over the party base, perhaps due to her status as the rebel and anti-establishment rebel. Hamon was obviously helped by the financial crisis, during which he opposed the government’s bailout. Shows that the NPS left of the PS is still a strong force, even though his result is below the 23.5% polled by the NPS motion in Le Mans. The PS has not yet published results, and will likely wait until Monday to do so. There appears to be a 700 vote margin separating Aubry and Delanoë. And around 1000 votes from the DOM Guadeloupe fed have not yet reported. Leaks have said that Delanoë won Paris with around 38-37 over 25-26 for Royal. Aubry won Lille with around 75. Not sure if that is Lille or the Nord as a whole. Strenghtened by the Guérini endorsement, Royal won the Bouches-du-Rhône with 71 and won the large Hérault fed by 54 (a smaller margin than originally expected). Ouest-France reported results for the west, and would have Royal leading in the Orne, Mayenne, and Vendée. Delanoë would be leading in all 5 Breton departments + the Maine-et-Loire and the Sarthe. Hamon would be ahead in the Calvados and Manche. Leaks suggest he would also be leading in Ardèche.

Aubry has done well, but she basically got the votes of the Fabiusists base (20% of the PS) and little apart from that. Hamon will not let her take the leadership of the left-wing of the party. Hamon’s success is bad for her.

The Reims Congress seems to have the smells of the infamous 1990 Rennes Congress. Royal is celebrated as the winner by the media and pundits and for many, she is now the party leader automatically. It doesn’t work that way. On November 20, the feds will vote again for the leader (and choose between candidates, not motions/lists). Ideally, the party finds one candidate for all motions. However, the race is personal this time.

Here is how it could break down:

• Anti-establishment (Royal-Hamon; 47.76%): No majority, and Royal and Hamon are too ideologically different to work together, unless Royal is desperate.
• Establishment (Delanoë-Aubry; 49.32%): Falls just short of a majority, and Delanoë and Aubry have large egos and a combination between two strong contenders wouldn’t work out well and one ego would be crushed.
• Lefties (Aubry-Hamon; 43.07%): No majority. Hamon wouldn’t let Aubry take over the left-wing of the PS and the PS isn’t that left-wing to elect a leader from the NPS/leftie faction.
• We Hate Royal majority (Delanoë-Aubry-Hamon; 67.98%): The most plausible coalition, but doesn’t solve long-term problems. Firstly, the problem of ego comes back and the gnomes would have a hard time agreeing on a common candidate for the leadership. Secondly, the moderate-reformist establishment (Hollande and Rocard) would likely disapprove of the quasi-Trot Hamon in the majority and could switch to Royal, who would be the more moderate of the two coalitions. Feuds, feuds, feuds.
• Moderate majority (Royal-Delanoë; 54.01%): Would make sense on paper, but Delanoë hates Royal.
• Aubry-Royal would never work, because Aubry would rather join the UMP than work with Royal, whom she absolutely hates. In addition, Fabius and Royal are enemies.

Of course, these coalitions could totally fail on November 20 when the party base votes again. A candidate put forward by a plethora of motions who represent 50% of the votes or more could lose. Also, don’t underestimate the popularity of the anti-establishment and especially Royal with the base.
To make things worse, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Senator, Essonne) and Marc Dolez (Deputy, Nord-17) have left the PS and want to create a party like the German Die Linke and wish to lead the “true left” in the 2009 EU elections. Good luck with that, guys.

Mélenchon and Dolez had endorsed the Hamon motion, btw.

Continue reading for Breton results. Of course, a map will be made when all the results by fed come out and are official.

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