The Congress of Reims itself ended last night, after three (useless) days. Everybody urged unity, but nobody wanted to create it themselves. Royal was even booed by members when taking up the touchy issue of alliances with the MoDem. The Reims Congress made the 1990 Rennes Congress (which was dominated by a similar battle and division) look like an example in party unity. The PS shouldn’t hold a Congress in a city starting with “R” or the “Rein” sound anytime soon.

Of course, this is far from over. Now that everybody wasted three days of their life in Reims, it continues. Members will vote on Thursday (first round) to elect a leader. In past years, like 2005, every motion made peace at the Congress and came back together around one candidate. This time, nobody made peace (or almost) and there are three candidates. Martine Aubry, third place in the motions faces her enemy Ségolène Royal, first place in the motions, in this close election. Benoit Hamon, fourth place with 19% in the motions has made peace with nobody (except with the kooky “Utopia” motion, 2%) and is running again. Delanoë, by far the biggest loser in this whole thing, will not run and endorsed Martine Aubry this morning, confirming that he too wants Royal to go away. A majority of his 25% will probably go for Aubry, now the establishment candidate, but the more moderate Delanoë voters might prefer Royal. Anyways, it is hard to predict this thing as the motions vote showed us very well. Members might say “screw the two women” and elected Hamon, the dark horse. Or they might prefer the rebel and fresher-face Royal and elect her. Whichever way they vote, the party is divided and the next leader will face a divided party. There is, however, one winner in all this. Nicolas Sarkozy and the UMP.

If no candidate wins 50% of votes on Thursday, the voters will vote again in a runoff. I’m predicting a runoff will be held. But, who knows?