Renaud Dutreil, initially a rising star in the UMP and since March 2008 an epic failure in politics, has resigned to move to the United States to work for LVMH. At first elected in the Aisne, he carpetbagged to the Marne (in Reims) in 2007 with the city of Reims in mind. But in March 2008, he was defeated by the first round in Reims by the local UMP dissident Catherine Vautrin and the subsequent Socialist winner, Adeline Hazan. He has thus decided to leave politics and leaves his new constituency, Marne-1, which is entirely composed of a fraction of the city of Reims, vacant. A by-election will be held December 7 and 14.

In 2007, he defeated the UMP incumbent Francis Falala for the UMP nomination and ended a very, very long family dynasty control on the constituency. Francis Falala had suceeded his father, deputy and former Mayor of Reims, in 2002. His father had held the seat under the various Gaullist party names since ‘67. Falala tried in vain to stage a dissident candidacy against Dutreil but lost by the first round. He has since fallen out with the local UMP machine and they even ran a candidate against him in his canton in March (though that UMP paper candidate was trounced by Falala).

The 2007 results:
UMP 38.84
PS 23.93
Falala 17.34
MoDem 7.77
PCF 3.17
Greenies 2.93
FN 2.48
LCR 2.11
LO 0.65, Div 0.54, MNR 0.24

Dutreil beat the PS 54-46. Falala’s voters did not split massively for Dutreil. Do note that abstention was nearly 50% in both rounds.

Falala is running again, and the UMP has decided on a paper candidate. The 2007 PS candidate, who has since become a high-ranking member of the PS administration in Reims, is running again, as is a PS dissident. Apart from those four, there is a Greenie, a Commie, a Trot, a MoDem, and a FN.

Should be interesting, definitely. Falala is the one with the best name recognition on the right, since Robinet seems like a random name taken out of a hat by the local UMP (which, btw, loves to lose elections. Kinda like the Illinois GOP). A Falala/PS runoff is definitely a possibility, and I think in that scenario, the right’s victory would be quite comfortable, moreso than a Robinet/PS. If the UMP candidate (Robinet) loses, then the Vautrin leadership in the local UMP machine will need to face serious scrutiny.

Also being held tomorrow are a few cantonal by-elections.

Mézières Centre-Ouest (Ardennes): December 7-14, 2008

2008 Results
DVG 24.39
UMP 20.30
Indie 17.35
Greens 15.92
PCF 8.48
MoDem 5.69
FN 5.60
MRC 2.27

DVG 60.47
UMP 39.53

Cagnes-sur-Mer Centre (Alpes-Maritimes): December 7-14, 2008

2004 Results
UMP 45.26
FN 22.40
PS 15.71
Ecologist 4.66
DVD 4.19
DVD 2.53
PCF 2.82
MNR 1.33

UMP 70.70
FN 29.30

Grasse-Nord (Alpes-Maritimes): December 7-14, 2008

2004 Results
UMP 36.05
PS 31.03
FN 19.29
PCF 4.56
Ecologist 3.70
EXG 2.51
DVD 1.49
EXG 1.36

UMP 43.20
PS 40.81
FN 15.98

Saint-Martin-Vésubie (Alpes-Maritimes): December 7-14, 2008

2004 Results
UMP 60.02
DVD 30.14
FN 7.05
PCF 2.80
Epic fail.

Grasse-Nord is probably the only one that will be remotely interesting, though Mézières Centre-Ouest could be fun too, especially because that left-wing Indie is running again. Saint-Martin-Vésubie will be hilarious just to watch the ownage of the opposition.

After all, I did look like a fool with my stupid UMP prediction in Gironde, and a very big foolish hack at that too. I should have read more into the leftie leaning of MoDem voters in this part of the world.

Anyways. Deluga won, and by a quite impressive margin (much larger than the last time he won, in ‘97), but it remains a by-election with sub-5o turnout and it’s wise not to go all crazy over these results. Turnout was slightly up from 38% in the first round to 43% this time, and those new voters went heavily for the Socialist. Deluga won with 54.3%, against 45.7% for Foulon. The MoDem voters likely split heavily for Deluga. I assume he also won MoDem voters in the 2007 runoff, or at worst lost them narrowly.

The Gironde prefecture remains a total joke, so there’s obviously little chance that communal data will ever be known.