Bit late on this stuff, but I haven’t killed off this thing yet.

First, old first round stuff from nearly three weeks ago.

UMP 28.64
PS 28.05
Falala 20.94
MoDem 7.62
PCF 4.41
LCR 3.84
FN 3.05
Greenies 2.93
DVG 0.51
UMP+DVD: 49.58%
Abstention: 78.21%

The “UMP” etiquette helped Robinet quite a bit, especially considering the guy had no name recognition whatsoever or almost. Falala increased a bit from 2007, but not as much as I would’ve predicted in the first place.

Runoff stuff. Robinet wins 52.49 vs. 47.51 for Quenard. Abstention was 75.84. Seems like some good transfers from Falala to Robinet, seems a bit better than the Falala-Dutreil transfers in 2007.

Some stuff on local by-elections mentioned in my other post

Mézières Centre-Ouest (Ardennes)

DVG: 52.81
Indie-DVD-MoDem: 21.35
UMP: 18.62
Greenie: 4.74
FN: 2.47

DVG 65.88
Indie 34.12

Cagnes-sur-Mer Centre (Alpes-Maritimes)

UMP: 43.04%
PCF: 24.92%
DVD: 13.50%
DVD: 8.65%
FN: 9.89%

UMP 60.9
PCF 39.1

Grasse-Nord (Alpes-Maritimes)

UMP 52.88
DVG 22.10
PS 20.9
NC/Ecolo 4.12
UMP 58.4
DVG 41.6

Saint-Martin-Vésubie (Alpes-Maritimes)

UMP 78.46
PS 12.20
PCF 4.5
FN 2.68
Fascist (Idenditaires, a politically correct way to refer to white supremacists and racist xenophobes) 2.16

Allauch (Bouches-du-Rhone)

PS 59.87
UMP 16.82
PCF 6.57
DVD 5.26
FN 4.36
Greenie 3.21

PS 77
UMP 23

Berre L’Etang (Bouches-du-Rhone)

Mario Martinet (PS): 56.56%
Gérald Autechaud (PCF): 19.12%
Ange Venterelli (UMP): 15.55%
Gérald Gérin (FN): 8.76%

PS 100.0% in runoff. PCF dropped out.

Chateauroux-Centre (Indre)

UMP 30.02
PS 20.20
DVD 11.77
Indie 9.62
DVD 7
NPA 6.27
PCF 6.07
Greens 4.78
MoDem 4.28

UMP 53.47
PS 46.53

Aurillac-4 (Cantal)

DVD 53.60 / 57.10
PS 46.40 / 42.90

PRG incumbent, became surprise Senator in September.

Saint-Flour-Sud (Cantal)

DVG 50.54 / 53.18
UMP 49.46 / 46.82

Massively (70+) UMP in 2004.

The Cantal results are interesting. Aurillac is an industrial and secular area, as opposed to a conservative and Catholic department. In the middle of old RadSoc land, all Aurillac cantons were held by the left since 1994, and a few of those never elected a rightie. Saint-Flour-Sud is composed of part of Saint-Flour but also very conservative agricultural areas to the south of the canton. Saint-Flour itself remains a relatively conservative city, though there is a sizable left-wing electorate, as in every urban core. So, to say the least, surprising stuff here. A few explanations could be attempted. The PS winner in Saint-Flour is not a nobody in the canton - he’s the mayor of a rural commune, Villedieu. He was “running mate” to the PS Senatorial candidate in September. Rural voters are known to be close to their elected officials. Also, the dynamics of a by-election in rural land. Rural electorates are known to be volatile in by-elections (see Eure-et-Loir). In Aurillac-4, it is highly possible that Jacques Mezard, the PRG incumbent, had a personal vote and the by-election is the logical effect of his departure. We will have to wait until 2010 for Saint-Flour-Sud to confirm that it is a swing canton, and 2014 for Aurillac-4. In the meantime.