Around three polls have come out for the EU elections, including one public release (IFOP for ParisMatch), as well as other polls that have not been officially published.

It remains a bit early for these polls to have any real value, and neither the lists are finalized nor are we even close to the elections. In fact, around 55% say their voting intentions are not set in stone.

• The UMP is at around 22-25% according to those polls; with the PS trailing with around 20%.
• The MoDem seems to be maintaining itself at the UDF’s 2004 levels (12%). It is at around 12-13%, and that number goes up to 14.5% in the absence of NC lists (it seems unlikely that the NC wishes to commit political suicide by running a list- it’s polling around 2-3%. The NC will likely get spots on UMP lists).
• The far-left (Besancenot’s new NPA and Laguiller’s LO) seems to be in prime position to win its best EU election results ever (its previous best was in 1999, 5.2% a common LO-LCR list) and also a result similar to 2002. The NPA would be at an historic 8-10%, while the LO is also performing decently (considering how bad they have polled in past elections) with around 3-4%. The combined far-left could very well break 10%, possibly even 13%.
• The new ecologist union around Cohn-Bendit (Greenies and so forth) is polling around 11-10% (around their best results in EU elections, 1989 and 1999).
• The FN is also polling decently and is above 5%, with around 6-7%. It would still represent a drop since 2004, where it won nearly 10%. However, the presence of FN dissident lists (led by the faction that hates Marine Le Pen) in a few regions, including the Nord-Ouest could hurt the FN by splitting the far-right vote and preventing one or another to win a seat (5% threshold).
• The MPF’s numbers seem to be fluctuating from poll to poll. Some polls have them as low as 3% (they won 6.8% in 2004), while others have them as high as 8%. It seems to have trouble polling over 5%, with an average of 4-5%. However, it still trounces the other national-conservative list in this election, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan’s DLR (Arise the Republic. What a tinpot name) which is polling around 1%.
• The PCF-PG “noniste” coalition has progressed since last year, when the PCF alone polled 2.5% and the PCF-PG now polls around 5%.

In terms of voter demographics, the breakdowns are quite interesting

• 62 to 63% of Sarkozy’s first round voters in 2007 are intending to vote for a UMP list. 52-54% of Royal’s voters will do likewise with a PS list, but only 48% of Bayrou’s first round voters will vote for a MoDem list, the rest splitting for the UMP/PS/Greenies.
• The PS is stuck in a weird position with Europe. Around 22-23% of the no voters in 2005 will vote PS, while a similar number of oui voters (20ish) will vote PS. The PS will need to be careful defining its position on Europe, though knowing them they’ll probably make empty statements along the lines of “Social Europe” or “Europe with social justice”.
• The no voters are split this way: PS (22-23%), UMP (17-20%), NPA (15-17%), PCF-PG (9-10%), MoDem (7-10%), Greenies (6-9%), MPF (6-9%), FN (6%), etc.
• Yes voters : UMP (34%), PS (20%), MoDem (17-20%), Greenies (8%), etc.
  

Here are the major lists that will run no matter what: The UMP-NC, PS (now supported by the LeftRads), MoDem, Greenies/ecologist front, MPF (which will likely run under the Irish Libertas thingee), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan’s outfit (supported by small groups with tinpot names and the lol Bonapartists lol), PCF-PG, FN, NPA/the Trots/LO.

Other possible lists include the relatively new Alternative libérale  (the classical liberal party run in, ironically, an authoritarian manner); a possible ecologist front (MEI, France en action, and what remains of GE); Paul-Marie Coûteaux, an MEP elected with the MPF in 2004 but leader of a small outfit called the RIF might run alone (rofl. political suicide); the “We Hate Marine Le Pen” FN dissidents (Carl Lang and Jean-Claude Martinez); an annoying Esperanto thingee; the royalists; a ROFL Maoist party; the old CNIP (which is now out of the UMP’s circle of friends) will run independent lists in a few regions; the Parti Breton; and finally the LaRouchites, again.

In other news, the UMP has nominated most of its top candidates by constituency. Incumbent MEPs are bolded.

• Sud-Est: F. Grossetête
• Nord-Ouest: D. Riquet / T. Saïfi (2nd)
• Île-de-France: M. Barnier / R. Dati (2nd)
• Ouest: C. Béchu / É. Morin (2nd)
• Sud-Ouest: D. Baudis
• Est: J. Daul
• Massif central-Centre: J.-P. Audy

They went for some big names in Paris (very big names in this case) and the Sud-Ouest (never say that the Baudis dynasty is dead). An interesting choice in Christophe Béchu, the young UMP President of the Maine-et-Loire general council. Élisabeth Morin, former UMP President of Poitou-Charentes (she was defeated by the drug addict in 2004), is an MEP since Roselyne Bachelot resigned. In the Nord-Ouest, Borloo and the Rads were able to get the Mayor of Valenciennes, Dominique Riquet to be top candidate. Valérie Létard, a NC cabinet member, was offered that post, but she prefers to try her hand at running in the regionals next year. Tokia Saïfi, a former GE member and now a Rad, will need to live with a second spot, after getting the top spot in 2004. In the Sud-Ouest, incumbent MEP Alain Lamassoure will either need to live with a third spot (he was #1 in 2004) or there is some talk of carpetbagging him to IdF. Only Grossetête and Daul led UMP lists in their respective constituencies in 2004.

Meanwhile, in the world of the Greenies.

Here are the top candidates for Europe Ecologie, a rally of Greenies, antiglobalization people, regionalists (the sell-out UDB and Partit Occitan) and so forth.

• Nord-Ouest: Hélène Flautre, MEP / François Dufour, antiglobalization thingee leader
• Nord-Est: Sandrine Bélier, ecologist jurist / Jacques Muller, Green Senator for the Haut-Rhin
• Ouest: Yannick Jadot, leader of a ecologist organization / Nicole Kiil-Nielsen, Green candidate in Rennes (2008)
• Île de France: Daniel Cohn-Bendit, MEP / Eva Joly, former magistrate
• Massif central-Centre: Jean-Paul Besset, close to Nicolas Hulot
• Sud-Ouest : José Bové, Astérix / Catherine Grèze
• Sud-Est : Michèle Rivasi, former Green MP and deputy-mayor of Valence / François Alfonsi, Corsican regionalist

More cantonal by-election fun!

There was also a by-election in Avallon, Yonne to replace a PS councillor who passed away. Avallon is located in the southeast of the department and is almost entirely classified as urban/commuter belt, centred around Avallon (pop 06: 7,874), the fourth city in the department.

First Round, January 11

I : 8.745 ; V : 3.408 ; Exp : 3.333 ; Abs: 61,03 %

Isabelle Huberdeau (DVG) : 1.644 (49,32%)
Pascal Germain (DVD) : 1.435 (43,05%)
Claude Moreau (SE) : 174 (5,22%)
Marie-Solange Mansard (FN) : 80 (2,40%)

The PS candidate won 42% in 2004, and 52% in the runoff. The UMP incumbent (who had won narrowly in 1998) won 38% and 48% in the runoff. The FN won 13% back then.

Runoff, January 18

I : 8.745 ; V :: 4.027 ; Exp :: 3.934 ; Abst : 53,95%

Mme Isabelle Huberdeau (DVG) : 2.107 (53.56%)
M Pascal Germain (DVD) : 1.827 (46.44%)

In Douarnenez, the by-election which I’ve been following rather closely, right-wing voters turned out way more in the runoff, and Le Floch defied expectations and won (by a rather impressive margin, considering the odds were all against him).

Runoff, January 18

I : 19.101 ; V : 6.662 ; Rxp : 6.435 ; Abs: 65,12%

M Hugues Tupin (PCF) : 2.993 (46.51%)
M Erwan Le Floch (UMP) 3.442 (53.49%)

Tupin’s result is close to that of all the non-nationalist left-wing forces in the first round, but abstention changed in the UMP’s favour.

In the Ain, there were two by-election first rounds today.

Miribel (Ain)

I : 13.817 ; V : 2.870 ; Exp : 2.846 ; Abs : 79,23%

M Joël Aubernon (DVD) : 1.026 (36.05%)
M Pierre Goubet (DVG) : 869 (30.53%)
Mme Josiane Bouvier (PS) : 513 (18.03%)
M Georges Baulmont (DVG) : 237 (8.33%)
M Jacques Darves (PCF) : 76 (2.67%)
M Patrick Bouchard (FN) : 125 (4.39%)

Miribel is a suburb of Lyon. According to Insee stats, less than 30% of the population work in the canton. As it often is with urban cantons, abstention was sky-high.

The incumbent is a leftie, elected with over 51% by the first round in 2004. The FN won almost 17% in 2004. Combined leftie forces here are 59.6%, and unless the four lefties hate each other to death, Goubet should win relatively easily (however… remember Pouilly-en-Auxois last year…)

Saint-Trivier-de-Courtes (Ain)

I : 4.153 ; V : 1.727 ; Exp :: 1.673 ; Abs : 58,42%

M Armel Morel (DVD) : 1.106 (66.11%)
M Gilles Peisson (PS) : 449 (26.84%)
M Gilbert Chossat (PCF) : 118 (7.05%)

Primarily rural canton of northern Ain, though the south of the canton is now in Bourg-en-Bresse’ commuter belt. Around +10% for the PS since 2004, and minor gains for the PCF too.

Upcoming cantonal by-elections include Valenton (Val-de-Marne) and Villecresnes (Val-de-Marne) in one week. The first one is held by a retiring PCF mayor and councillor, who won 100% in a 2004 runoff. Villecresnes is held by a UMP general councillor who won 57% in March last year whose election was voided because envelopes were sent to voters and these did not contain the profession de foi (program) of a DVD candidate. There will also be a by-election in Privas (Ardeche), since the PS incumbent was forced to step down following his election to the Senate. He had won over 60% in the 2004 runoff. I don’t know the date of that by-election. Privas is the fifth largest city in the department.

The first round of a cantonal election to replace outgoing Douarnenez UMP councillor Philippe Paul (elected as Senator in September) was held today. The canton is composed of the city of Douarnenez itself, as well as surrounding commuter belt communes. Douarnenez, once the stronghold of sardine factories, and the first city to elect a Communist mayor in the early 20s, was gained by the UMP (from the PS, which had won it from the UDF in 2001, which had defeated the PCF administration in 1995) in March last year. The sardine industry is reduced to little if anything at all, and the harbour has turned into your usual leisure port.

A map of the canton is available here.

The candidates were:

Hugues Tupin, Douarnenez municipal councillor (PCF)
Hervé Fourn,  Douarnenez municipal councillor (PS)
Bernard Conan (MoDem)
Jean Cathala, 2008 candidate (Greenies)
Erwan Le Floch, deputy mayor of Douarnenez (DVD)
Arnaud Vannier (Breizhistance). Left-wing Breton nat movement.

The MoDem didn’t run a candidate against Paul, an ex-UDF himself, in March last year, but is doing so this time.

The results are

I : 19 101 ; V : 5 589 ; Exp : 5 478 ; Abs: 71,32 %

Hugues Tupin (PCF, though apparently counted as DVG) : 1 028 (18.77%)
Hervé Fourn (PS) : 981 (17.91%)
Bernard Conan (Modem) : 613 (11.19%)
Jean Cathala (Verts) : 510 (9.31%)
Erwan Le Floch (DVD, though apparently counted as SE) : 2 112 (38.55%)
Arnaud Vannier (Breizhistance) : 234 (4.27%)

Some random scenarios now.

Firstly, the state of the various forces

Tupin (PCF+PS+Greenies+Nats) 50.26
Le Floch 38.55
Centrists 11.19

The Nats might not turn out en masse in the runoff, giving Tupin 45.99% then. Splitting the MoDem is more tricky. Breton MoDem voters generally split for the left by a quite important margin. According to my quick, unreliable, and very sketchy calculations, around 58% of Bayrou’s 22.5% in the canton of Douarnenez voted for Royal in the runoff (Royal won 54.6%). According to even sketchier and even more unreliable calculations, 61% of MoDem voters (12.2%) voted for the PS candidate in the general election (who won 50.6%). Assuming 61% of the MoDem voters this time voted for the leftie, and not counting Nats, Tupin wins 51%. And nearly 55% if the all the Nats turn out for Tupin. Hard to see a scenario where Le Floch wins this one, unless the dynamics of abstention change dramatically, or MoDem voters don’t turn out en masse for a Communist.

I’m therefore predicting a PCF pickup, which would return them to the general council, from which they are shut out of since they lost Huelgoat, their last canton, in March last year.