Europe 2009!
The hunter’s party, CPNT has decided that it will not run independent lists, instead it will run common lists with the MPF. These MPF-CPNT lists are under the banner of the new European political party, Libertas. Not really a surprise, because CPNT is similar to the MPF when it comes to Europe. The idea of MPF-CPNT lists had already floated around a bit in, until Saint-Josse rejected the deal. In 2004, both parties combined won 8.4% (6.67% for the MPF, 1.73% for CPNT). Frédéric Nihous will lead the MPF-CPNT in the North-West, and Jean Saint-Josse in the South-West.
IFOP has just released a new poll, which is their second poll since November 2008, not counting that poll the PG commissioned for their wet dream. The change is compared to November 2008, but the UMP change is compared to the total UMP+NC polled separately, and the MPF-CPNT change is compared to the the total MPF+CPNT polled separately.
UMP 26% (+2)
PS 23% (+1)
MoDem 14.5% (+2.5)
Greens 7% (-4)
NPA 9% (+1)
FN 6% (-1)
PCF-PG 4% (n/c)
LO 3% (-1)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 5% (-2)
DLR 2% (+1)
FNd 0.5% (+0.5) (only polled in NW and SW)
Demographic and political breakdowns are interesting.
- Left-wingers and Trots break 46 PS, 17 NPA, 14 Greenie, 9 PCF, 6 LO. The LO breakdown is interesting, but to take with a grain of salt: Half would vote for an LO list, 21 PS, 13 Greens, a surprising 8% for Libertas, and only 5% for their fellow Trots at the NPA. Shows how the LO and NPA hate each other. Not a lot of other interesting stuff there, except that 12% of Greenies vote MoDem.
- Right-wingers (IFOP isn’t clear if this includes far-right or not, though their “no partisan preference” sample seems heavily far-right to me) are less divided: 63% UMP, 14% FN, 12% Libertas.
- Royal voters in April 2007 break 69 PS, 10 NPA, 9 Greenies.
- Sarkozy voters in April 2007 break 62 UMP, 8 Libertas, 8 MoDem, 6 FN.
- Bayrou voters in April 2007 break 61 MoDem, 18 UMP, 12 PS, 6 Greenies.
- OUI voters in 2005 break heavily UMP: 41 UMP, 23 MoDem, 21 PS. NON voters in 2005 are more divided: 24 PS, 16 UMP, 14 NPA, 11 MoDem, 11 Libertas, 8 PCF.
- The PS keeps 70% of its 2004 EU voters, with 10% voting NPA, 6% PCF, and 6% MoDem. The Greens keep only 59% of its 2004 voters, bleeding equally to the PS and the MoDem. The UMP keeps a full 84% of its 2004 voters, with 10% of those voting MoDem. Interestingly, only 54% of the UDF voters in 2004 plan on voting MoDem, with 34% going UMP.
- Manual Workers (Ouvriers) go 23% PS, 19% NPA, 17% UMP, 16% FN.
On a funny side note, the FN lists will be named Listes d’Entente Populaire Et Nationale, abbreviated LEPEN…Yes, the FN isn’t much of a personalist party.