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Archive for the ‘Election results analysis’ Category

A look at Alsatian local politics

Thursday, February 19th, 2009

The above is a map of the current composition of the Bas-Rhin and Haut-Rhin general councils, as of 2009. Since 1992, the changes to the Alsatian local political landscape hasn’t seen major reversals, unlike Bretagne. Both departments were strongholds of the various Christiandem parties at a local level, and the MRP-UDF controlled an overall majority of seats on its own for quite a long time in Bas-Rhin. The creation of a common party of the right, the UMP, has destroyed the remnants of the UDF in Alsace, even though there is still a sizeable non-UMP centrist voting bloc. The MoDem finished a (very) distant second in a large number of rural Alsatian constituencies in 2007.

The UMP has an overall majority in the Bas-Rhin general council, with 30 seats. The PS has 7 seats, and there are 3 DVD councillors. 3 of the 4 MoDem councillors sit with the UMP majority, and one (a former independent ecologist) sits with the opposition. All 7 Socialists are elected in the city of Strasbourg, where they hold a majority of the seats. Since 1994, where they held only Strasbourg-9, a poor canton including a large number of Strasbourg’s ZUS (Zone urbaine sensible: inner city area with high unemployment and so forth), they have made important gains in richer downtown Strasbourg, a trend also seen nationally. The PS is becoming more and more popular in downtown wealthy areas. Ironically, the PS does not hold Strasbourg-10, the large canton in the southeast of the city, which includes industrial areas along the Rhine as well as a ZUS. The current Modem councillor was elected in 2004 defeating the FN (Strasbourg-10 is an ideal setting for the FN). If the PS had made the runoff, they could have won. There is some left-wing strength in some suburbs of Strasbourg, such as Schiltigheim and Illkirch-Graffenstaden. Alfred Muller, PS then MDA (a local centre-left GM-like personalist party) Mayor of Schiltigheim held the canton of Schiltigheim until he was defeated by an independent ecologist in 2004. The UMP has huge majorities in the wealthy western suburban cantons. In rural areas, the UMP wins most elections by the first round.

The Haut-Rhin, more industrialized and slightly poorer than the Bas-Rhin, is more left-wing in its general orientation, even though it is still heavily left-leaning. In addition, contrarily to the Bas-Rhin, the Christian democrats’ decline in the department is not a recent event. More industrial, it was an early base of Gaullism. In fact, the UNR held the general council from 1958 to 1973, when the centrist Jean-Jacques Weber took over and held it until 1998. Lastly, the FN is strong in urban and industrial areas in the Haut-Rhin, while it is stronger in rural areas in the Bas-Rhin. Currently, there are 10 UMP councillors, 9 DVD, 6 PS, 4 DVG, 2 Greenies, and 1 far-right regionalist (Alsace d’Abord). The Socialists are strong in Mulhouse, which is much poorer than Strasbourg and has an important number of quartiers populaires (poorer and disadvantaged inner city areas). The PS holds the Nord and Ouest cantons. The FN often comes second in Mulhouse-Nord, and they won it in a by-election in 1995. The right holds the two other cantons, Est and Sud. IIRC, Mulhouse-Est includes wealthier downtown areas, and Mulhouse-Sud includes very wealthy suburbs. The fomer potash minining areas northwest of Mulhouse and the working-class city of Cernay are quite left-wing. The PS also holds Neuf-Brisach, which I know little about except that it’s major city, Neuf-Brisach, was built by Vauban and includes the harbour of Colmar. The Greenies hold two marginal cantons: Colmar-Sud, quite wealthy, which they narrowly won from Colmar’s quasi-perpetual election loser, Roland Wagner in 2008. The Greenies can thank the right’s divisions for their lucky win in Kayersberg, Alsatian wine country, in 2004. They won with only 31% in a four-way runoff which pitted the eventual Greenie winner with a UDF candidate, an Indie, and a DVD. The far-right regionalist Alsace d’Abord hold Sainte-Marie-aux-Mines, which they won with 34% in a three-way in 2004. Amusingly, the vote there split 34-33-32.

More cantonal by-elections

Sunday, January 18th, 2009

More cantonal by-election fun!

There was also a by-election in Avallon, Yonne to replace a PS councillor who passed away. Avallon is located in the southeast of the department and is almost entirely classified as urban/commuter belt, centred around Avallon (pop 06: 7,874), the fourth city in the department.

First Round, January 11

I : 8.745 ; V : 3.408 ; Exp : 3.333 ; Abs: 61,03 %

Isabelle Huberdeau (DVG) : 1.644 (49,32%)
Pascal Germain (DVD) : 1.435 (43,05%)
Claude Moreau (SE) : 174 (5,22%)
Marie-Solange Mansard (FN) : 80 (2,40%)

The PS candidate won 42% in 2004, and 52% in the runoff. The UMP incumbent (who had won narrowly in 1998) won 38% and 48% in the runoff. The FN won 13% back then.

Runoff, January 18

I : 8.745 ; V :: 4.027 ; Exp :: 3.934 ; Abst : 53,95%

Mme Isabelle Huberdeau (DVG) : 2.107 (53.56%)
M Pascal Germain (DVD) : 1.827 (46.44%)

In Douarnenez, the by-election which I’ve been following rather closely, right-wing voters turned out way more in the runoff, and Le Floch defied expectations and won (by a rather impressive margin, considering the odds were all against him).

Runoff, January 18

I : 19.101 ; V : 6.662 ; Rxp : 6.435 ; Abs: 65,12%

M Hugues Tupin (PCF) : 2.993 (46.51%)
M Erwan Le Floch (UMP) 3.442 (53.49%)

Tupin’s result is close to that of all the non-nationalist left-wing forces in the first round, but abstention changed in the UMP’s favour.

In the Ain, there were two by-election first rounds today.

Miribel (Ain)

I : 13.817 ; V : 2.870 ; Exp : 2.846 ; Abs : 79,23%

M Joël Aubernon (DVD) : 1.026 (36.05%)
M Pierre Goubet (DVG) : 869 (30.53%)
Mme Josiane Bouvier (PS) : 513 (18.03%)
M Georges Baulmont (DVG) : 237 (8.33%)
M Jacques Darves (PCF) : 76 (2.67%)
M Patrick Bouchard (FN) : 125 (4.39%)

Miribel is a suburb of Lyon. According to Insee stats, less than 30% of the population work in the canton. As it often is with urban cantons, abstention was sky-high.

The incumbent is a leftie, elected with over 51% by the first round in 2004. The FN won almost 17% in 2004. Combined leftie forces here are 59.6%, and unless the four lefties hate each other to death, Goubet should win relatively easily (however… remember Pouilly-en-Auxois last year…)

Saint-Trivier-de-Courtes (Ain)

I : 4.153 ; V : 1.727 ; Exp :: 1.673 ; Abs : 58,42%

M Armel Morel (DVD) : 1.106 (66.11%)
M Gilles Peisson (PS) : 449 (26.84%)
M Gilbert Chossat (PCF) : 118 (7.05%)

Primarily rural canton of northern Ain, though the south of the canton is now in Bourg-en-Bresse’ commuter belt. Around +10% for the PS since 2004, and minor gains for the PCF too.

Upcoming cantonal by-elections include Valenton (Val-de-Marne) and Villecresnes (Val-de-Marne) in one week. The first one is held by a retiring PCF mayor and councillor, who won 100% in a 2004 runoff. Villecresnes is held by a UMP general councillor who won 57% in March last year whose election was voided because envelopes were sent to voters and these did not contain the profession de foi (program) of a DVD candidate. There will also be a by-election in Privas (Ardeche), since the PS incumbent was forced to step down following his election to the Senate. He had won over 60% in the 2004 runoff. I don’t know the date of that by-election. Privas is the fifth largest city in the department.

Douarnenez cantonal by-election

Sunday, January 11th, 2009

The first round of a cantonal election to replace outgoing Douarnenez UMP councillor Philippe Paul (elected as Senator in September) was held today. The canton is composed of the city of Douarnenez itself, as well as surrounding commuter belt communes. Douarnenez, once the stronghold of sardine factories, and the first city to elect a Communist mayor in the early 20s, was gained by the UMP (from the PS, which had won it from the UDF in 2001, which had defeated the PCF administration in 1995) in March last year. The sardine industry is reduced to little if anything at all, and the harbour has turned into your usual leisure port.

A map of the canton is available here.

The candidates were:

Hugues Tupin, Douarnenez municipal councillor (PCF)
Hervé Fourn,  Douarnenez municipal councillor (PS)
Bernard Conan (MoDem)
Jean Cathala, 2008 candidate (Greenies)
Erwan Le Floch, deputy mayor of Douarnenez (DVD)
Arnaud Vannier (Breizhistance). Left-wing Breton nat movement.

The MoDem didn’t run a candidate against Paul, an ex-UDF himself, in March last year, but is doing so this time.

The results are

I : 19 101 ; V : 5 589 ; Exp : 5 478 ; Abs: 71,32 %

Hugues Tupin (PCF, though apparently counted as DVG) : 1 028 (18.77%)
Hervé Fourn (PS) : 981 (17.91%)
Bernard Conan (Modem) : 613 (11.19%)
Jean Cathala (Verts) : 510 (9.31%)
Erwan Le Floch (DVD, though apparently counted as SE) : 2 112 (38.55%)
Arnaud Vannier (Breizhistance) : 234 (4.27%)

Some random scenarios now.

Firstly, the state of the various forces

Tupin (PCF+PS+Greenies+Nats) 50.26
Le Floch 38.55
Centrists 11.19

The Nats might not turn out en masse in the runoff, giving Tupin 45.99% then. Splitting the MoDem is more tricky. Breton MoDem voters generally split for the left by a quite important margin. According to my quick, unreliable, and very sketchy calculations, around 58% of Bayrou’s 22.5% in the canton of Douarnenez voted for Royal in the runoff (Royal won 54.6%). According to even sketchier and even more unreliable calculations, 61% of MoDem voters (12.2%) voted for the PS candidate in the general election (who won 50.6%). Assuming 61% of the MoDem voters this time voted for the leftie, and not counting Nats, Tupin wins 51%. And nearly 55% if the all the Nats turn out for Tupin. Hard to see a scenario where Le Floch wins this one, unless the dynamics of abstention change dramatically, or MoDem voters don’t turn out en masse for a Communist.

I’m therefore predicting a PCF pickup, which would return them to the general council, from which they are shut out of since they lost Huelgoat, their last canton, in March last year.

Marne-1st and other local by-elections

Friday, December 19th, 2008

Bit late on this stuff, but I haven’t killed off this thing yet.

First, old first round stuff from nearly three weeks ago.

UMP 28.64
PS 28.05
Falala 20.94
MoDem 7.62
PCF 4.41
LCR 3.84
FN 3.05
Greenies 2.93
DVG 0.51
UMP+DVD: 49.58%
Abstention: 78.21%

The “UMP” etiquette helped Robinet quite a bit, especially considering the guy had no name recognition whatsoever or almost. Falala increased a bit from 2007, but not as much as I would’ve predicted in the first place.

Runoff stuff. Robinet wins 52.49 vs. 47.51 for Quenard. Abstention was 75.84. Seems like some good transfers from Falala to Robinet, seems a bit better than the Falala-Dutreil transfers in 2007.

Some stuff on local by-elections mentioned in my other post

Mézières Centre-Ouest (Ardennes)

DVG: 52.81
Indie-DVD-MoDem: 21.35
UMP: 18.62
Greenie: 4.74
FN: 2.47

DVG 65.88
Indie 34.12

Cagnes-sur-Mer Centre (Alpes-Maritimes)

UMP: 43.04%
PCF: 24.92%
DVD: 13.50%
DVD: 8.65%
FN: 9.89%

UMP 60.9
PCF 39.1

Grasse-Nord (Alpes-Maritimes)

UMP 52.88
DVG 22.10
PS 20.9
NC/Ecolo 4.12
UMP 58.4
DVG 41.6

Saint-Martin-Vésubie (Alpes-Maritimes)

UMP 78.46
PS 12.20
PCF 4.5

FN 2.68
Fascist (Idenditaires, a politically correct way to refer to white supremacists and racist xenophobes) 2.16

Allauch (Bouches-du-Rhone)

PS 59.87
UMP 16.82
PCF 6.57
DVD 5.26
FN 4.36
Greenie 3.21

PS 77
UMP 23

Berre L’Etang (Bouches-du-Rhone)

Mario Martinet (PS): 56.56%
Gérald Autechaud (PCF): 19.12%
Ange Venterelli (UMP): 15.55%
Gérald Gérin (FN): 8.76%

PS 100.0% in runoff. PCF dropped out.

Chateauroux-Centre (Indre)

UMP 30.02
PS 20.20
DVD 11.77
Indie 9.62
DVD 7
NPA 6.27
PCF 6.07
Greens 4.78
MoDem 4.28

UMP 53.47
PS 46.53

Aurillac-4 (Cantal)

DVD 53.60 / 57.10
PS 46.40 / 42.90

PRG incumbent, became surprise Senator in September.

Saint-Flour-Sud (Cantal)

DVG 50.54 / 53.18
UMP 49.46 / 46.82

    Massively (70+) UMP in 2004.

    The Cantal results are interesting. Aurillac is an industrial and secular area, as opposed to a conservative and Catholic department. In the middle of old RadSoc land, all Aurillac cantons were held by the left since 1994, and a few of those never elected a rightie. Saint-Flour-Sud is composed of part of Saint-Flour but also very conservative agricultural areas to the south of the canton. Saint-Flour itself remains a relatively conservative city, though there is a sizable left-wing electorate, as in every urban core. So, to say the least, surprising stuff here. A few explanations could be attempted. The PS winner in Saint-Flour is not a nobody in the canton – he’s the mayor of a rural commune, Villedieu. He was “running mate” to the PS Senatorial candidate in September. Rural voters are known to be close to their elected officials. Also, the dynamics of a by-election in rural land. Rural electorates are known to be volatile in by-elections (see Eure-et-Loir). In Aurillac-4, it is highly possible that Jacques Mezard, the PRG incumbent, had a personal vote and the by-election is the logical effect of his departure. We will have to wait until 2010 for Saint-Flour-Sud to confirm that it is a swing canton, and 2014 for Aurillac-4. In the meantime.

    By-election watch: Gironde-8th

    Sunday, November 30th, 2008

    The first round of the parliamentary by-election the 8th constituency of Gironde was held a week ago. The seat, which claims the “largest seat in France” status (around with 5 other constituencies, of which all are bogus), stretches from the wealthy and rightie Arcachon to the more blue-collar and leftie areas in the rest of the constituency. The seat has been held since 2002 by Marie-Hélène des Esgaulx (UMP), who was elected Senator in September and prompted this by-election. The seat was held from 1997 to 2002 by the Socialist François Deluga. The UDF won the seat in 1988 and 1993. The media didn’t say anything about this election, or else I would have posted a more complete profile of the constituency. Deluga is running in a third attempt to regain his seat lost in 2002. Yves Foulon, Mayor of Arcachon, ran as a DVD dissident candidate against des Esgaulx in 2002. This constituency is also one of the top CPNT constituencies: Saint-Josse polled over 11% here in 2002. The FN used to poll double digits in its good days here, over 12% in 1997 and Le Pen won nearly 15% in 2002.

    François Deluga (PS) 43.77 (+12.27)
    Yves Foulon (UMP) 40.95 (-6.6)

    Emmanuel Perrin (CPNT) 3.78 (+1.18)
    Jacques Courmontagne (MoDem) 3.57 (-3.29)
    Monique Nicolas (LCR) 3.22 (+1.22)
    André-Christian Darriet (PCF) 2.31 (+0.59)
    Lydie Croizier (FN) 2.30 (-0.46)
    Sébastien Jacques (DVD) 0.07 (new)

    Parliamentary Left (PS, PCF) 46.08
    Right (UMP, CPNT, DVD) 44.8

    The race will be tight, and very tough it seems for Foulon. Adding the LCR’s 3% in its entirety to Deluga/PCF, he has 49.3% (be careful doing that. Trot voters are unreliable in runoffs). Adding the FN’s 2.3% to Foulon/CPNT he has 47.1%. Once again, the MoDem’s weak but important 3.57% will likely decide the runoff. I’ll either look like a total fool and hack or a great predictor in a few hours, but I’m going to predict a narrow UMP victory. After all, I did very well predicting the last two by-elections (Rhone-11 and Eure-et-Loir-1), so jamais deux sans trois I hope!

    Here is a map of 2007. The Gironde prefecture is a total joke, and has only posted the generic percentages without communal data. If only everybody was like the Rhone prefecture…

    Florida 2000! Recount!

    Saturday, November 22nd, 2008

    The PS leadership saga, which was supposed to end early last night with a clear winner in the runoff, is still not over.

    In Thursday’s first round, Royal won 42.4% with Aubry taking 34.7% and Hamon at 24%. The Delanoe voters didn’t go massively for Aubry, and it seems like only one-third of them did vote for Aubry, with the rest split between Royal and abstention (although I doubt a third of them abstained. Turnout went from 56 to 59). Hamon endorsed Aubry, both of which are from the left-wing of the PS.

    The runoff was held last evening (17:00 to 22:00) between Royal and Aubry. The first results showed that Royal seemed to have run away with it, quite clearly, with something like 52-53. However, the ones saying that were all Royalists. As more votes got counted from the big feds, Aubry narrowed Royal’s margin by a significant margi. Then the Aubry camp claimed victory by about 100 votes, and the Royalists shut up. Early this morning, the PS leadership confirmed these results:

    Aubry 67,413 (50.02%)
    Royal 67,371 (49.98%)

    Turnout was down slightly from 59% on Thursday, but not by much. It was probably helped by the fact that a few feds had runoffs for the local party leadership.

    So, Aubry won by around 42 votes nationally. A recount will probably take place, and nobody is actually celebrating Aubry as the “winner” just yet. The Royalists haven’t given up hope and Royal has adopted the “let’s vote again until you give the right answer” strategy and called for a third round (Ukraine 2004 anybody?). Whoever wins (it’ll probably be Aubry), the PS couldn’t have a worse result (though Royal ahead by 42 votes would’ve been bad. The old guard would probably have committed mass suicide). However, once again, I can make a projection. The UMP has won the PS leadership race overwhelmingly. The Besancenot Trots have won too. And maybe even the MoDem (though probably not. Too busy losing members to notice).

    The PS hasn’t released results by fed yet (understandably), but some departmental feds have done so.

    Reims Congress: The results

    Wednesday, November 12th, 2008

    The Figaro leaked the full results with 99% or so counted last night, and LeMonde.fr released an interactive map this morning, so it appears to be official now. With further adu, the map.

    A map of party rivalries, local party bosses and barons, and not at all sociological.

    And, don’t trust the leaks that had Hamon ahead in Ardeche. Not as bad as the “SNP will win Glenrothes” rumours and leaks, but still rumours. Yeah, don’t trust them.

    Firstly, Royal:

    Royal is herself (Poitou-Charentes), the Mayor of Dijon Francois Rebsamen (Côte d’Or), former NPS Vincent Peillon (Somme), Bouches-du-Rhône General Council president and very influental PS boss Guérini (from the Bouches-du-Rhône to the Alpes Maritimes), the Mayor of Lyon and actual leader of her motion Gerard Collomb (Rhône), Bianco (Alpes de Haute Provence), and even the new Mayor of Laval (Mayenne), Guillaume Garot, who probably influenced the small Orne fed. The Hérault fed has some problems of its own with the whole Frèche fiasco thingee, but voted for Royal. The Aude is a bit weird. They too seem to be in a bit of problems right now and it lacks leadership.

    Delanoë is the establishment. His major strenghts come from Hollande (Corrèze, Haute-Vienne, Cantal), Jospin (Ariège, though he underperformed in Jospin’s home turn of Haute-Garonne), what remains of DSK (Vaucluse, Val-de-Marne, Val-d’Oise), and Rocard strongholds (Bretagne, Bas-Rhin, Franche-Comté). He got only 38% in Paris, and massively underperformed in the Paris suburbia. Delanoë has little real support all in all, apart from Hollande’s base in the Limousin and Cantal and other areas influenced by old party bosses. His support outside of those area is low. But then, so is Aubry’s.

    This map shows how much Fabius contributed to Aubry’s 24ish percent. She got, on her own, only her home turn of Nord-Pas de Calais. Fabiusist control of the feds or Fabius influence made her win the Seine-Maritime, Eure, Calvados, Oise, Indre, Cher, Vosges, Haute-Corse, Pyrénées Orientales, and Seine-Saint-Denis. Saône et Loire? Arnaud Montebourg. However, I am surprised at the “evaporation” of Fabiusist support in the Eure. Fabius’ motion got over 50% in 2005 and Fabius managed to get over 40% in the humiliating 2006 primary. Aubry only won that with a bit over 30%.

    Hamon is the left of the party. The eternal party leftist Henri Emmanuelli (Landes, Pyrénées Atlantiques) in addition to the Manche Aube, Creuse and Essonne (Mélenchon, the one who is pissed off).

    Full results by fed are available online on LeFigaro here. A is Delanoe, B is the ecologist motion, C is Hamon, D is Aubry, E is Royal and E is Utopia.

    A few stats:

    • Total registered militants 232,912
    • Voting 131,930 (56.64%, of which 98.99% were valid)
    • Biggest feds: Paris (19,801), Pas-de-Calais (15,040), Nord (11,632), Bouches-du-Rhône (10,995)
    • Smallest fed: Wallis-et-Futuna (2, none of which voted), Lozere (258)

    Feuds, feuds, feuds: Reims Congress

    Saturday, November 8th, 2008

    Before anything else, here is a brief overview of how the Socialist Party works. It’s intricate and complex.

    Hierarchy

    • 161,404 militants (members)
    • about 4,000 sections (uniting militants in cities, factory, neighborhood. Atleast 5 members with an elected leader).
    • 102 Federations (One for each department and one for French citizens abroad. Led by an elected first secretary). A lot of the sections are led by influential party bosses (Guerini comes to mind in the very powerful Bouches-du-Rhone federation).
    • 306 councillors in the National Council (the party’s Parliament that meets 4 times a year. Composed of 102 federal first secretaries and 204 members designated during party congresses)
    • Bureau etc. (57 members in the bureau, between 20-30 in the secretariat) are designated by the Nat. Council on the advice of the first secretary
    • First Secretary elected by militants in the sections.

    Dates

    • September 23, 2008: Limit date for deposing motions to the National Council.
    • November 6, 2008: Sections vote on motions. The federal congresses then designate delegates to go to the Congress, based proportionally on the motions results.
    • November 14-16, 2008: Congress in Reims. In 2005, there were 614 delegates plus 849 members by right (council and bureau members, MNAs, Senators).That figure is slightly higher based on PS gains in the Nat Assembly and Senate.
    • November 20-21, 2008: Leadership election by militants in sections.
    • November 22, 2008: Bureau and Secretariat designated by the National Council on the advice of the leader.

    So, the 102 federations voted on Thursday for motions, there were six motions in the running:

    • Royal’s motion (led by Gerard Collomb, Mayor of Lyon). Basically a personality cult with no ideology.
    • Delanoe’s motion. Reformist, moderate, and social liberal (the L-word which is like the F-word in the PS). Also, the establishment’s motion (Hollande, Rocard, Ayrault, Jospin).
    • Aubry’s motion. Unholy alliance of Fabiusists and Aubry lefties.
    • Hamon’s motion. Quasi-Trot, eurosceptic, and left-wing motion. Comparable to the NPS motion in 2005.
    • Utopia motion (which got 1.02% in 2005). Trots, alterglobalization and other kooks.
    • a miscellaneous “ecologist pole”. Eco-socialists.

    The results were very surprising: Royal 29.1%, Aubry 24.41%, Delanoë 24.91%, Hamon 18.66%. Greenies and Utopia below 2%. Firstly, polls indicated that Delanoë had a strong lead and Royal and Aubry were in battle for second position. They had Hamon between 1% and 6%. Firstly, Royal obviously still holds sway over the party base, perhaps due to her status as the rebel and anti-establishment rebel. Hamon was obviously helped by the financial crisis, during which he opposed the government’s bailout. Shows that the NPS left of the PS is still a strong force, even though his result is below the 23.5% polled by the NPS motion in Le Mans. The PS has not yet published results, and will likely wait until Monday to do so. There appears to be a 700 vote margin separating Aubry and Delanoë. And around 1000 votes from the DOM Guadeloupe fed have not yet reported. Leaks have said that Delanoë won Paris with around 38-37 over 25-26 for Royal. Aubry won Lille with around 75. Not sure if that is Lille or the Nord as a whole. Strenghtened by the Guérini endorsement, Royal won the Bouches-du-Rhône with 71 and won the large Hérault fed by 54 (a smaller margin than originally expected). Ouest-France reported results for the west, and would have Royal leading in the Orne, Mayenne, and Vendée. Delanoë would be leading in all 5 Breton departments + the Maine-et-Loire and the Sarthe. Hamon would be ahead in the Calvados and Manche. Leaks suggest he would also be leading in Ardèche.

    Aubry has done well, but she basically got the votes of the Fabiusists base (20% of the PS) and little apart from that. Hamon will not let her take the leadership of the left-wing of the party. Hamon’s success is bad for her.

    The Reims Congress seems to have the smells of the infamous 1990 Rennes Congress. Royal is celebrated as the winner by the media and pundits and for many, she is now the party leader automatically. It doesn’t work that way. On November 20, the feds will vote again for the leader (and choose between candidates, not motions/lists). Ideally, the party finds one candidate for all motions. However, the race is personal this time.

    Here is how it could break down:

    • Anti-establishment (Royal-Hamon; 47.76%): No majority, and Royal and Hamon are too ideologically different to work together, unless Royal is desperate.
    • Establishment (Delanoë-Aubry; 49.32%): Falls just short of a majority, and Delanoë and Aubry have large egos and a combination between two strong contenders wouldn’t work out well and one ego would be crushed.
    • Lefties (Aubry-Hamon; 43.07%): No majority. Hamon wouldn’t let Aubry take over the left-wing of the PS and the PS isn’t that left-wing to elect a leader from the NPS/leftie faction.
    • We Hate Royal majority (Delanoë-Aubry-Hamon; 67.98%): The most plausible coalition, but doesn’t solve long-term problems. Firstly, the problem of ego comes back and the gnomes would have a hard time agreeing on a common candidate for the leadership. Secondly, the moderate-reformist establishment (Hollande and Rocard) would likely disapprove of the quasi-Trot Hamon in the majority and could switch to Royal, who would be the more moderate of the two coalitions. Feuds, feuds, feuds.
    • Moderate majority (Royal-Delanoë; 54.01%): Would make sense on paper, but Delanoë hates Royal.
    • Aubry-Royal would never work, because Aubry would rather join the UMP than work with Royal, whom she absolutely hates. In addition, Fabius and Royal are enemies.

    Of course, these coalitions could totally fail on November 20 when the party base votes again. A candidate put forward by a plethora of motions who represent 50% of the votes or more could lose. Also, don’t underestimate the popularity of the anti-establishment and especially Royal with the base.
    To make things worse, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Senator, Essonne) and Marc Dolez (Deputy, Nord-17) have left the PS and want to create a party like the German Die Linke and wish to lead the “true left” in the 2009 EU elections. Good luck with that, guys.

    Mélenchon and Dolez had endorsed the Hamon motion, btw.

    Continue reading for Breton results. Of course, a map will be made when all the results by fed come out and are official.

    (more…)

    By-election watch: Chartres

    Thursday, September 11th, 2008

    I didn’t follow the race as I should’ve, and was caught by surprise this Monday morning with a snippet on Le Monde about the by-election. The first round was held on Sunday the 7th, and the runoff is this Sunday. I didn’t keep tabs on the candidate, so I didn’t spot the MoDem not running a candidate.

    Despite what the media said, the results are actually pretty close. On paper and strictly speaking, not really, but when you analyse them, they are. Gorges (UMP) won 47.76% of the vote. Most of that vote is UMP, of course, but a big part of the traditional MoDem vote went with him. The PS candidate won 28.09%, and a dissident took 14.51. The UMP is up 11.5% from the first by-election, so it corresponds to a chunk of the MoDem vote (which represented 18.5% last time). The PS is statistically down nearly 10 points, but the PS+PSd vote is actually up 4.6%. The rest of the MoDem vote went with one of the two PS candidates. The FN won 3.79, which is down from both the 2007 and the first by-election result (-0.39). Jamais deux sans trois. The LCR ran a candidate this time ’round, and he won 3.41%, up from 2.47 in 2007 (probably took most of the 2007 LO vote, which was about 1.2% IIRC). The Commies lost 1.4% of their by-election result and fell to 2.44. The POI (the new name for the Workers’ Party, a tiny joke Trot sect) won only one vote.

    All this nice stuff gives up Right 47.76% vs. Mainstream Left and Trots 48.45% vs. FN 4.18%. Which corresponds to a very tight result. Tighter than the Rhone-11 by-election also covered here. I’m predicting a narrow UMP victory for now, and I’m eyeing a replay of the June 2007 results, where Gorges won by a handful of votes (50ish IIRC). A PS win is also a very realistic possibility, though.

    A UMP re-gain would certainly be a bit of good news for the party, which of course hasn’t had the best fortunes lately. That could also be some bad news for the PS, although they might not notice it since they seem busy fighting each other this moment.

    For anyone interested, the prefecture has detailed cantonal and communal data here. In PDF format.

    By-election watch: Rhone-11th

    Sunday, June 1st, 2008

    Firstly, the results before anything else

    NC-UMP 51.36%
    PS 48.64%

    So, my prediction of 51-49 was quite spot on, and what I had seen happening happened. Turnout remained horrid (29%) and the PS candidate took almost all of the PCF, Greenies, PRG etc. voters but didn’t get the key to all this, the MoDem, which likely broke narrowly for Durand (NC). This result is very much like Fenech’s 2002 result, where the UMP gained the seat from the PS with 52% of the vote.

    The Prefecture of the Rhone still has communal data for the runoff, so…

    The PS did extremely well in the Givors area and also in the bellwether canton of Condrieu (which probably broke narrowly for Durand, still). The PS also won a few communes in the north of Mornant canton. Save for the Lyon suburb of Mions, which went PS, Durand won Saint-Symphorien quite heavily, probably a mix of both it being very right-wing and him being the general councillor for the canton.

    So, that’s that. Let’s wait eagerly for the next by-election, now.