Bretagne (UMP&DVD +4)

Ille-et-Vilaine: The result in Ille-et-Vilaine was status quo, as it had been expected to some extent. Daniel Delaveau, Edmond Herve’s chosen successor, was easily elected in the socialist city of Rennes in a three-way runoff against the UMP and the MoDem. In fact Delaveau increased his mentor’s 2001 score. In Saint-Malo, the UMP incumbent was re-elected in a three-way runoff with the MoDem. In Vitre, the long time stronghold of Pierre Mehaignerie, the figure of the UDF and later UMP in the department, Mehaignerie was re-elected by the first round with 62.4%. The race in Fougères could have been interesting if Thierry Benoit, the centrist MP for the Fougères constituency, had thrown his hat into the race. That was not to be, and the Socialist incumbent was re-elected with over 60%. Redon, which is slowly trending Socialist, was a Socialist target, but the DVD incumbent was re-elected. In Dinard, the most solid right-wing city in the department, the right took the leisure of going into the election divided (as they do in everyone of their strongholds) between 2 DVD lists. The DVD list led by the incumbent mayor was re-elected with 47.28 against 43.69 for the other DVD candidate. However, the canton of Dinard flipped to the Left Radicals in the cantonales elections!

Cotes d’Armor: In the left-wing bastion that is Cotes d’Armor, the left has reason to be deceived. In Saint-Brieuc, a Socialist stronghold gained by the UDF in 2001 and now held by the MoDem, the MoDem incumbent, supported by the UMP, was re-elected, and even increased his score over 2001, winning 54.3% agaist 51.7% in 2001. In Dinan, another Socialist target, the right was re-elected. Unsurprisingly, the left sweeped re-election in Lannion and Guingamp while the right was re-elected in Loudeac, the department’s most right-wing city.

Morbihan: As in Ille-et-Vilaine, the status-quo prevailed in the right-leaning Morbihan. The UMP incumbent, a notable anti-Sarkozy, was re-elected in Vannes with 51.6 and the Socialists won by the first round, as expected, in Lorient with 64%. The left also held Auray, a right-wing target, and Pontivy.

Finistere: The left’s only major gain regionwide was in Quimper, Finistere where the MEP Bernard Poignant and mayor of the city from 1998 to 2001 retrieved his seat, lost to the right in 2001, in a three-way runoff against the UMP and the MoDem. The UMP incumbent was not standing for re-election. In Brest, the PS incumbent was re-elected with over 60%. However, the rest of the department was extremely favourable to the right! Right-wing candidates defeated left-wing incumbents in Morlaix, Landerneau, Douarnenez, Quimperle, and Concarneau; all cities which vote for the left in other elections. Total UMP&DVD +4.

Loire-Atlantique: Another department that ended up entirely status-quo. Ayrault was easily re-elected in Nantes with 55.7% by the first round, like in 2001. In Saint-Nazaire, the Socialist incumbent needed to wait until the runoff to be elected, but his seat was never in jeopardy anyways. The right held on successfully to its strongholds in La Baule-Escoublac and Guerande, and squeaked through in Orvault.

Pays de la Loire (=)

Vendee: Guess what happened here? Status-quo! The left swept through in La Roche-sur-Yon by the first round and held Fontenay-le-Comte by a whisker. The right had hoped to win Fontenay-le-Comte, but they did what they’re best at: run divided in the runoff and lose! The right did hold Les Herbiers, Challans, and Les Sables-d’Olonne. Philippe de Villiers, the MPF leader and the Führer of Vendee since 1988 was given another term in office.

Maine-et-Loire: The right had hoped to win Angers, and the UMP candidate did come first in the first round. However, with good vote reserves from the far-left and the PCF, the Socialist incumbent squeaked back into office by a whisker. In the southwest the UMP held Cholet by the first round and gained Saumur from the Greenies. Total UMP +1

Mayenne: In Mayenne, the left gained Laval, a city it had lost in 1995 to the right,  by the first round. The left was easily returned in Mayenne (city, not department!) and the right was easily re-elected in Château-Gontier. The MoDem president of the department Jean Arthuis was re-elected. Total PS +1

Sarthe: Guess what happened here? Status-quo! As expected, the Socialists easily held onto Le Mans by the first round and the PS incumbent in La Flèche. The right, on its side, held on to Sable-sur-Sarthe very easily and as expected. I don’t go off into small villages, but in the village of Solesmes the Prime Minister, Francois Fillon, held onto his seat in the city council.

Poitou-Charentes (PS +3)

Charente-Maritime: The only gain in the major cities of Charente-Maritime was the PS victory in Saintes. The PS mayor Maxime Bono held La Rochelle by the first, as expected, and retained Rochefort 52-48 in the runoff. The right, on its side, held Royan. In the general council, the UMP majority was returned, but the department is now led by the former UMP minister of Transports Dominique Bussereau. Total PS +1

Charente: The Charente department confirmed its alliegance to the left by dumping two right-wing incumbents in Angoulême (the department’s prefecture) and Cognac while retaining the PS majority in the general council. Total PS +2

Deux-Sevres: The home department of Segolene Royal, the PS leader of the region, continued trending to the left. In Niort, the department’s main city, the left was returned (but the incumbent himself was defeated in favour of another Socialist) very easily. The left also gained Thouars, located in the north of the department while the right held onto its cities of Bressuire and Parthenay. The department swinged to the left, with the Socialists ending the right-wing domination of the department in effect since the 1970s. Total PS +1

Vienne: In Poitiers, the Socialist incumbent was returned by the first round. In Loudun, the right held the city, despite the incumbent retiring. The New Centre gained Châtellerault, the department’s second largest city, with the election of NC deputy Jean-Pierre Abelin. Total NC +1

Next: Centre, Normandie

PS: It is incontestable that there was a sharp swing to the left, specifically the Socialists, in the first round. The PS gained Rouen and Laval by the first round, Delanoe won over 40% in Paris, Collomb was re-elected in Lyon by the first round, and the PS is threateningly close to the UMP in Marseille. In Strasbourg, Caen, Amiens, Reims, Colombes and other cities, the PS came first, beating the UMP or centrist incumbent. Finally, in Toulouse, the left seems to have the upper hand in the runoff against the UMP incumbent. Also, numerous Socialist mayors were re-elected by the first round, such as Francois Hollande who took 72.25% in Tulle.

UMP: While some predicted a 1977-like rout for the majority, the right resisted generally well. Unexpectedly, they came first in Angers against the PS incumbent and first in Toulouse (where polls predicted a second-place finish). While they did horribly in Lyon and badly in Paris, in smaller cities the right resisted well against a pink wave. In fact, Laurent Wauquiez gained Le Puy-en-Velay in Haute-Loire from the PS and Luc Chatel did likewise in Chaumont, Haute-Loire. The UMP also has a chance to pick up cities like Calais, Saumur, or Belfort. Internal divisions prevented the UMP from first round victories in cities like Nice, Boulogne-Billancourt, Versailles, or Neuilly.

MoDem: The results of the MoDem are a mixed bag. While they did well in cities like Rennes, Quimper, Arras, Saint-Etienne, Saint-Brieuc, or Paris the MoDem came second in its leader’s hometown, Pau and got mediocre results in Lyon, Marseille, Strasbourg, Nice, or Toulouse. In Paris the MoDem can maintain itself in only 3 runoffs (5, 7, 14). Incumbent MoDem mayors did well, Vanlerenberghe was re-elected with over 55%, even though some had predicted his defeat. In Saint-Brieuc, the capital of the Cotes-d’Armor and a very left-wing city, Bruno Joncour took with 44.7% and improved his score over 2001!

Communist Party: The Communists resisted, in most cases, formidably well to both its perennial decline and PS-prompted primaries. In the “9-3 primaries” where PCF mayor also faced PS candidates, the Communists resisted well and are favoured, in most cases, to hold the towns in the runoffs. In La Courneuve, the Communist mayor led the Socialists by about 10%; in Saint-Denis or Bagnolet it led by 20%. It was closer in Aubervilliers where the runoff is between the PCF-PS-MoDem-UMP. The Communists, with their 36-year old candidate, Sébastien Jumel, gained Diepp, a city lost in 2001. The Communists also gained Vierzon. However, the Communists are also facing difficulties, in cities like Calais, or in the general council of Seine-Saint-Denis, where the Socialist Claude Bartolone is poised to replace the Communist leadership of the department.

Greens: The Greens, which were counting on the elections to revive their chances did OK. While they saw their vote in Paris halved compared to their 12% in 2001; the party got 19% in Valence, 11.6% in Lille, 11.1% in Montpellier, and 16.8% in Quimper. In most of these cases, or all of these cases, the Greens are likely to merge with the Socialist list as they already did in Paris. In Saumur, however, where the Green mayor was re-elected by the first round in 2001, the right has a definite chance at a pickup.

FN: After a disastrous year in 2007, March 2008 was not much better for the FN. His daughter was far behind the unpopular PS incumbent in Henin-Beaumont and the party did horribly in its former strongholds (such as Nice, where they got only 4.2%). The FN score rose a bit in Marseille, where it is qualified for the runoff in the Marseille-7 sector against the UMP and the PS. In Toulon, a city in FN/MNR hands until 2001, the FN candidate polled 6.55%; in Megret’s Vitrolles, the FN was eliminated with its 9.74%. In some regions, the FN did not even run candidates, such as in Brittany. It was eligible for 40 runoffs in cities with 30,000+ population in 2001, the FN is eligible for only 7 in 2008. The FN is in the runoff in Calais (where it may merge with the UMP to defeat the PCF), Mulhouse (against Bockel and the PS), and Perpignan (a four-way runoff, UMP-PS-DVG-FN).

A bit of history now with a look at the results in the locals since 1945.

29 April and 13 May 1945: As voters went to the polls in the first round, France was still at war, Germany surrendered on May 7. For the first time ever in France, women were allowed to vote, resulting in 50% more voters than pre-war. In the first round, the Communists are favoured, while the radicals and moderates were trounced. The christian democrats of the MRP realized an unexpected breakthrough. In the runoff however, the MRP collapsed while the moderates, radicals, SFIO, and PCF were able to win numerous cities.

19 and 26 October 1947: The election of 1947 was the first local election held under the 4th Republic. While the MRP was severely defeated, the Gaullist RPF realized excellent results (winning Bordeaux, Rennes, Strasbourg, Paris etc). The Communists, who had been excluded from the government in the spring, were isolated in working-class cities primarily.

26 April and 3 May 1953: After the very favourable 1947 election, but a less favourable time in the National Assembly, the RPF collapsed to 10%, but the centre and the CNIP limited the right’s defeat. The Communists lost over 10%.

8 and 15 March 1959: After coming to power in 1958 under the 5th Republic, the 1959 locals were the first municipal elections under the new republic. After exceptional scores in 1958, the Gaullist UDR realized mediocre scores. The MRP, radicals, SFIO, and Communists held their positions.

14 and 21 March 1965: Like in 1959, the UDR realized deceiving results (although they did moderately gain). The Communists gained, but they also came out of their isolation and started co-operating with other parties of the parliamentary left.

14 and 21 March 1971: Georges Pompidou had been in power since 1969 by 1971. The UDR gained in the radical south-west while the PCF gained in the north and east. On the left, the socialists, although still administering numerous cities with the “moderates”, the strategy of unions with the PCF developed, marked mostly by the withdrawal of candidates in runoff to profit one party.

13 and 20 March 1977: By 1977, Valery Giscard d’Estaing had been in power since 1974. The Communists and PS, united under a “government program” swept the elections. Out of 221 cities with over 30,000 inhabitants, the left won 155. The Socialists gained Rennes, Angers, Brest, Nantes, Villeurbanne, Pau, and Cannes. The Communists gained Le Mans, Reims, and Saint-Etienne. For the first time, green parties realized their first breakthroughs.

For the first time since 1789, elections were held to the mayorship of Paris. The former Prime Minister and RPR candidate Jacques Chirac was elected, defeating notably the Giscardian Michel d’Ornano.

6 and 13 March 1983: The left, in power since only two years, was defeated in the 1983 locals by the RPR-UDF. The Communists lost Saint-Etienne and Reims, while the PS lost Tourcoing, Grenoble, and Roubaix. They narrowly held Marseille (with Gaston Defferre) against Jean-Claude Gaudin (UDF). In Paris, Chirac was easily re-elected, sweeping all arrondissements.

12 and 19 March 1989: After the 1983 disaster, the left did relatively good in 1989. They gained Nantes, Strasbourg, Brest, Orleans, Mulhouse, Avignon, Chambery, and Blois while losing Amiens, Saint-Malo, and Laon. The Communists continued their decline. Chirac repeated his 1983 sweep in Paris, but the PS did the same in Marseille. The FN won their first city, Saint-Gilles in the Gard. The Greens and ecologists did well, winning over 600 seats and around 15 cities.

11 and 18 June 1995: Held only a month after Chirac’s election as President, the 1995 locals presented contrasted results for both parties. The right gained Marseille, Le Havre (a Communist stronghold), Laval, and held Paris and Lyon. The PS, however, gained in both Paris and Lyon and took back Grenoble, and Tours. The Communists re-took Nimes. The far-right did well, with the FN winning in Toulon, Orange, and Marignane.

11 and 18 March 2001: The 2001 elections were generally favourable for the right, who was now in the parliamentary opposition. However, the right’s division in Paris and Lyon led to the PS gaining those two cities. They did, however, take Strasbourg, Aix-en-Provence, Argenteuil (a PCF stronghold since 1934), Blois (Jack Lang defeated), Chartres, Drancy (a PCF stronghold since 1935), Nimes, Orleans, and Saint-Brieuc. The left gained Ajaccio (from the bonapartists of Charles Napoleon), Dijon, and Tulle. The Greens did well, winning 16% in Besancon and winning Saumur by the first round. The far-right, divided between FN and MNR lost Toulon but held Orange, Vitrolles, and Marignane. By 2008, however, none of these three cities are still held by the FN or MNR.

After the previous post on the results of the far-right in France since 1946 and a quick analysis of the history of it, time for a shorter but nonetheless important and interesting post on the geographic distribution of the far-right vote since 1956 up to 2007.

Although I said in part 1 how the UFF and the FN were similar, their geographies were entirely different. The vote for the Poujadists in 1956 is similar to the MPF vote in 2007, the UFF received most of its high scores in the Pays de la Loire region, which is a traditionalist and highly Catholic region. The UFF also performed strongly in various departments in the south west and south east of France. Apart from the Vaucluse and a few other departments, the UFF map is different from that of the FN today.

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Although I said in part 1 how the UFF and the FN were similar, their geographies were entirely different. The vote for the Poujadists in 1956 is similar to the MPF vote in 2007, the UFF received most of its high scores in the Pays de la Loire region, which is a traditionalist and highly Catholic region. The UFF also performed strongly in various departments in the south west and south east of France. Apart from the Vaucluse and a few other departments, the UFF map is different from that of the FN today.

Continuing on to 1965, some patterns can be seen and the map is comparable to 2007

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The vote for Tixier-Vignancour was based in the southeast and southwest. There is a bit of a favorite son factor affecting the vote in the southwest, Tixier-Vignancour was a deputy from the Basse Pyrenees. The Mediterranean coastline departments were still relatively left-leaning in 1965, but the arrival of Pieds-Noirs from Algeria following the end of the Algerian conflict in the 1960s transformed the region, most notably the Bouches-du-Rhone department into FN-Right wing territory.

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Jean-Marie Le Pen is originally from the Morbihan department in Brittany even though he represented Paris-area constituencies most of his life. In 1974, he received 0.74% of vote the vote, and was above his national average in Morbihan department, benefiting from a “strong” favorite son factor, although when working with under-one percent numbers its hard to make any trend out of it. He did however break 1% in the Bouches-du-Rhone, the Var, and Alpes Maritimes.

It would be useless of course to look at the FN’s results up until 1986. Starting in 1986 one can see the strengthening of the FN in the east of France, especially in Alsace and Lorraine and at a lesser extent in the Nord-Pas de Calais.

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The list below shows the departments in which a FN-CNIP list obtained seats and its % score there.

• Alpes Maritimes (20.88%) ;
• Bouches du Rhône (22.53%) ;
• Gard (14.12%) ;
• Gironde (7.94%) ;
• Hérault (15.55%) ;
• Isère (10.14%) ;
• Loire (12.87%) ;
• Moselle (13.29%) ;
• Nord (11.35%.) ;
• Oise (10.75%.) ;
• Pas de Calais (7.83%) ;
• Pyrénées-Orientales (1908%) ;
• Bas-Rhin (13.05%) ;
• Haut-Rhin (14.46%) ;
• Rhône (13.24%) ;
• Paris (10.99%) ;
• Seine-Maritime (6.72%. ;
• Seine-et-Marne (11.90%.) ;
• Yvelines (10.40%) ;
• Var (17.11%) ;
• Vaucluse (18.08%) ;
• Essonne (9.45%);
• Hauts-de-Seine (11.29%) ;
• Seine Saint Denis (14.52%) ;
• Val-de-Marne (11.61%) ;
• Val d’Oise (12.51%)

Since 1986-1988, the patterns in the FN vote have remained more or less the same: the highest scores in the east, south east, and to a lesser extent the north.

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Now we jump to 2002, where Le Pen came out on top in nine out of 22 regions and 35 departments; and as all remember qualified for the runoff. Le Pen won in Alsace, PACA, Lorraine, Bourgogne, and the former Communist stronghold and industrial region of Nord-Pas de Calais. He also won in the Languedoc-Roussillon, Picardie, Champagne-Ardenne, Franche-Comte.

The FN has never broken through in the Catholic regions of Pays de la Loire and Brittany, which has remained a stronghold for the MPF. At the same time, the MPF has never broken through in the frontiste territories. While the FN had regional representation from 1998 to 2004 in the regional councils of these regions, the FN scores there are mostly below national average.

In 2007, Le Pen won no departments and his vote collapsed, most notably in Alsace. while he kept his score at FN average in the Nord-Pas de Calais, where his daughter was the only FN candidate to pass the 12.5% threshold to participate in the second round in the June 2007 legislative elections.

This is meant to be a statistical analysis of the far-right, not a socio political analysis. Therefore, if your eyes can’t stand the sight of percentages, you better run away before its too late. For those still here, no better way to start off than with a neat little Excel graphic. The codes should be straightforward (L for legislative, P for presidential… you get it now). EU, regional, and local elections are not included either for lack of nationwide data or the fact that their inclusion would mess up any trend. Those elections, however, are referenced in the analysis below when they are necessary for the explanation. Lastly, you’ll probably notice that the text involves into a history of the FN, that’s because they’re the only major party of the far-right since its creation.

The above chart shows the evolution of the vote of the far-right from 1956 to 2007 (now).

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In 1956, the first major post-war far-right party/group was formed- the Poujadists, formally known as Union et fraternité française (Union and French Fraternity). The UFF’s message was radically populist, with the introduction of law projects such as the re-establishment of the States-General (abolished following the Revolution) as a third house in Parliament (to add a social representation to geographical representation). Most of the UFF’s populist, Euro-sceptic, and nationalist ideas are today part of the main ideals of the FN, not surprising considering Le Pen was elected in 1956 as a UFF deputy. Anyways, back to statistics- the UFF realized a breakthrough taking over 2,4 million votes (11.6%) and 52 seats. As other anti-establishment (in this case meaning anti-Fourth Republic) parties in France (PCF, RPF) the UFF was penalized through the complex “apparentées” laws, which was in place to favor the Third Force (Socialists, RGR, MRP, Moderate right). It could have theoretically obtained around 75 seats in a purely proportional system. The UFF was laminated two years later with the birth of the the 5th Republic, only 2 UFF incumbents were re-elected under different banners (including as Le Pen under the CNIP etiquette). The far-right won 3.29% in 1958 and declined to 0.87% in 1962. In the 1965 presidential election, the candidate of the far-right, Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour obtained 5.2% but his candidacy failed to rally many voters not traditionally of the nationalist right. In 1966, the “Tixier Committees” (various far-right parties) were dissolved, which led to the division of the far-right into various short-lived parties. In the 1967 election the far-right fell to only 0.85%. Tixier-Vignancour was defeated in Toulon. In 1968, the far-right obtained its lowest score ever: 0.13%.

In 1972, the nationalist movement Ordre Nouveau, a neo-fascist movement similar to the Italian MSI or German NPD decided to contest the 1973 legislative elections as a larger movement- the National Front. The 1973 FN, similar to the UFF in terms of ideology, obtained 1.32% in the 1973 elections. Le Pen obtained 5.22% in Paris, the best score by a FN candidate that year. Ordre Nouveau was later dissolved by Raymond Marcellin, the Minister of the Interior in June 1973 following a violent anti-immigration rally. Led in an authoritarian fashion by Le Pen, the FN split with Ordre Nouveau, whose few supporters formed the PFN (Party of New Forces) in 1974.

Le Pen, the FN candidate in the 1974 election ran under a ultra-nationalist and populist platform, but obtained only 0.75% and supported VGE in the runoff. In the following 1978 and 1981 legislative elections, the FN obtained less than 1% in both years. In fact, the FN had only 270 members in 1980! Due to three right-wing (RPR) candidates and the pressure of the PFN, Le Pen was not able to obtain his 500 signatures mandatory to run in the 1981 presidential election. In the 1982 cantonale elections (locals), the FN began its non-stop rise, obtaining scores over 12% in various cantons in the Nord-Pas de Calais region. In the 1983 municipal elections, the far-right, even though it had obtained only 0.11% on a national level, obtained scores such as 11.3% for Le Pen in Paris’ 20th arrondissement. However, the first true success for the party came in the 1984 Euro elections where it obtained 10.95% nationally and 10 MEPs. With the rise of the FN, the PFN was dissolved in 1984- the FN had occupied the area of the French far-right.

In the 1986 election, held under proportional representation, the FN surged from 0.36% in 1981 to 9.85% that year. It elected 35 deputies, including Le Pen, Megret, Gollnisch, Peyrat (now UMP mayor of Nice), and Stirbois. The party’s top score in a department was 22.53% in the Bouches-du-Rhone, which became a long-time bastion of the far-right. In the simultaneous regional elections, the FN took 9.56% and elected 137 frontiste councillors. The support of the FN to the RPR/UDF allowed the right to gain the presidency of 7 regions, furthermore, the FN was represented in four, later six regional executives.

In 1987, Le Pen announced his candidacy in the 1988 election under a program not very different from his original 1974 program. Le Pen obtained 14.38%, much higher than 0.74% 14 years prior. In the subsequent legislative elections (held under the old two-round system, not PR) after a dissolution by newly re-elected President Mitterand, the FN and the far-right took “only” 9.79% but nonetheless placed ahead of the right (RPR/UDF) in 9 constituencies (8 in the Bouches-du-Rhone and 1 in the Var) . However, due to the end of PR, the FN lost all of its 35 seats except one in the Var, where Yann Piat was elected in that department’s 3rd constituency (she was excluded/left the FN to join the UDF before being killed in 1994). In the 1992 regional elections, the FN obtained 239 councillors in 22 metro regions.

In the 1993 elections, the FN and the far-right (mostly the smaller Alliance Nationale) obtained a total of 12.72%, and the presence of FN candidates in various runoffs could be held responsible for the defeat of the right and the re-election of Socialist incumbents in the weird constituencies, “marginal constituencies” using the British term. In the 1995 presidential election, Le Pen went up to 15% and in the subsequent June municipal elections, the FN elected mayors in three major cities (Marignane, Toulon, and Orange; later Vitrolles in 1996).

In the 1997 legislative elections, the FN obtained its best result ever in a legislative election- a total of 15.05% for the FN and other far-right parties. The FN mayor of Toulon Jean-Marie Le Chevallier was elected with 53.16% in the runoff, but his election was invalidated in 1998 and his wife, FN candidate in the subsequent by-election, was defeated.

In the March 1998 regional elections, the FN obtained 275 councillors in total, but in late 1998 and early 1999, the FN split with Bruno Megret leaving the FN to form the MNR. It is good to add that the Le Pen-Megret confrontation was long-lasting and not born in 1998 as many wrongly assume. With Megret and the new MNR went 140 FN regional councillors (131 stayed with the FN and 4 went other ways, including to a far-right Alsace regionalist movement). Le Chevallier, mayor of Toulon also left the FN to the MNR (he was defeated for re-election by the first round in 2001).

When people think of the French far-right they automatically think of 2002, not without reason. Although Le Pen increased his score of only 1.86% compared to his 1995 candidacy, the division of the left caused the defeat by the first round of Jospin and the qualification of Le Pen for the runoff. Surprisingly, the total left (PRG, PS, MDC etc) obtained more votes that the right and the far-right! The chart above (if you remember it after all this text) also counts the often-forgotten candidacy of Bruno Megret, who obtained 2.34% giving the FN-MNR a total of 19.20% of the votes nationally. Le Pen was of course defeated in the runoff taking only 18% to Chirac’s 82%. In the subsequent legislative election, the FN and MNR ran separate candidates and the far-right obtained only 12.67% in total, and all its candidates qualified for runoffs were defeated, including Jacques Bompard, mayor of Orange (re-elected in 2001 as FN, but now with de Villier’s MPF).

Contrary to what many thought would be the far-right’s first foray into 20% territory, Le Pen obtained only 10.44% in the 2007 presidential election, a poll afterwards showed that around 30% of his electors voted for the UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy. If those 32% had not voted for the UMP, Le Pen would have taken 21% of the vote and Sarkozy would have come second, not first, behind the PS candidate Segolene Royal. The FN disaster continued after the April presidential election- the far-right took only 4.68% in the first round of the June legislative election. The FN itself tied with the Communists, a party the FN had surpassed for the first time in 1986, with 4.29% each. Only one FN candidate reached the runoff, in the Pas de Calais department (constituency of Henin-Beaumont), Le Pen’s daughter who surprisingly increased the score of the far-right compared to June 2002. Apparently, the FN is hoping to win Henin-Beaumont in the 2008 local elections.

Is it the end of the non-stop rise for the FN? Maybe. Is it, however, the end of the far-right in France? Probably not. In fact, in a by-election in November of 2007, the FN candidate increased his party’s score from a mere 3-4% to 8%. The FN is polling at 8% for the March 2008 local elections.

Although not related to the crazy percentages here at all, it is interesting to note that numerous personalities of what is today the UMP or the UDF began their political careers in the far-right, as many PS personalities began theirs in the far-left PSU. Patrick Devedjian, Gérard Longuet, Alain Madelin were all members of Occident, a neo-fascist group that existed in the 1960s. Funnily, all three above are now pro-European and the latter two are liberals. Jacques Peyrat, UMP mayor of Nice as of now, was also a FN deputy elected in 1986.

Lastly, another thing to think about- as said above about the 1993 election, the presence of FN candidates in legislative runoffs could be blamed for the defeat of the candidates of the parliamentary right (RPR, UDF, DL, UMP) and the election of the left. In fact, in 1997, some RPR and UDF candidates were defeated by the left and the FN in three-way races, called triangulaires. Supporters of the right call these (in)famous races the triangulaires de la mort (transliterated into the triangular races of death).

Part 2- the geographic base of the FN

The Cotes d’Armor has for a long time been the left’s stronghold in Brittany. If one looks through old electoral statistics, the left has always achieved stronger results in Cotes d’Armor than elsewhere in Brittany. In 2007, Segolene Royal took 30% by the first round and 55% on the second round, compared to 28% in Ille-et-Vilaine and 29% in Finistère. The Communists have also performed above average here, for example Buffet took 2.32% in the department, compared to around 1.9% nationally. Geographically, Socialist support is concentrated heavily in the west of the department, in the constituencies of Guingamp and Lannion while also acheiving high results in Saint Brieuc. The eastern regions, Dinan and Loudeac trend minimally more towards the right, and of those two only Loudeac and the south of the department are more right-wing than its neighboring regions. In the first round of the 2007 presidential election, Dinan and Loudeac voted for Sarkozy, the three other constituencies voted for Royal, with her scores in these three constituencies above her departmental average. Royal won all constituencies in the second round, including Loudeac and Dinan. Once again, a clear east-west divide is seen- she took 52% in Loudeac and Dinan but from 55 to 61% in the three other constituencies.

The results of the first round of the legislative election in Cotes d’Armor illustrated excellently the blue wave of the first round. UMP candidates took the lead in 3 constituencies, with Socialists leading in 2 constituencies. One could have believed the left’s lock on the department was crumbling, though that was not the case.

In the first constituency, Saint Brieuc, seat held by the Socialiste Danielle Bousquet, and a generally safe seat for the PS, the result showed a blue wave too, the UMP was up from 25% in 2002 to around 36%! Also, the Socialist vote was up too, from 34% to 39%. However, in 2002, a UDF candidate had taken 12% here, and in 2007 the MoDem ran no candidate in this constituency, the only constituency where they didn’t do so. To explain the increase in Socialist vote, there was less of a division in left-wing votes than in 2002, the idea of vote utile being shown here. Both the Communist and Green vote was down, the PCF had won 7.6% in 2002, the Greens 4.6%, and the Pole Republicain had 1.5%. In 2007, the Communists collapsed to 5.4%, and the Greens were down to 4.5%. Bousquet was of course re-elected, with over 57.7%, higher than her 55% score in 2002 and only a few points higher than Royal’s 57.2%.

The second constituency, formed by Dinan, Cap Frehel, Plancoet voted for Sarkozy in the first round and the seat itself is a marginal. In the first round, Michel Vaspart, UMP candidate on his second try, led the Socialist incumbent Jean Gaubert by two votes! The surge of the left nationwide in the second round provided Gaubert with the power to trounce Vaspart 54.7% to 45.3%. In 2002, the result had been much more marginal, Gaubert had defeated Vaspart with only 50.12%.

The third constituency, dominated by Loudéac and Lamballe, the first one being a city of the right, the other being a city of the left. The constituency is the only one held by the right. The first round of 2007 was easily dominated by the UMP incumbent Marc Le Fur, who was only 2% away from being elected by the first round. He took 48.02%, the Socialists over 10 points behind with 34.7%. Equally surprising is the scale of the centre’s collapse from Bayrou’s 21% in April to the MoDem’s mere 2.9% in June. In the south, Loudéac and surrouding villages all voted at over 50% for Le Fur, while Lamballe voted, in scores much closer than in the south, primarily for the Socialist candidate. In the second round, Le Fur was re-elected taking 52%, down only a few points from 52.7% in 2002.

Guingamp and its constituency is the most solid Socialist constituency in the department, Royal took over 61% in the second round here. This seat is also part of western Brittany’s red belt, the belt that extends into Morbihan where Communists achieve high scores. In fact, in 1997, a Communist was elected in a race including a Socialist candidate. In 2002, the Communists lost half their 1997 vote and fell to 15.8%. In 2007, the Socialist incumbent Marie-Renée Oget easily won the first round taking 32.6% to the UMP’s 26.16%. The Communists achieved their best score region wide, with over 12% and coming first in 5 towns. The MoDem also won 3 towns and took 10.2% in the constituency as a whole. The UDB, a left-wing autonomist party, leader and regional councillor Mona Bras won 4.9%. In the second round, Oget, with a strong reserve from the Communists and UDB easily won, trouncing the UMP with her 63%.

The fifth constituency, whose main city is Lannion votes, more or less, like the department as a whole. With the “blue wave” of the first round, the UMP candidate came out on top with 34% to the Socialist’s 33%. The MoDem was also strong, with 10.9%, the centre’s best score in the department, although far from Bayrou’s 21% in April. Continuing it’s local bellwether tradition, the Socialists carried the seat with 56%, increasing the party’s marginal 50.92% in 2002. The right came out on top, although most times by almost nothing, in the richer seaside resorts, for example Perros Guirec.

As for summing up a general trend in the department, the west is safe Socialist, the east is more marginal, with the south of the department being more rightwards leaning. Without forgetting of course the red belt in the west. Ahead of the 2008 municipal elections, the Socialists will be trying to take back Saint Brieuc from the right, after the left had lost it in 2001. Another target within the left’s reach is Dinan, which voted Socialist in the second round of the legislative elections and whose town hall is currently held by the right.

This map showing the vote received by candidates of CPNT (Hunting, Fishing, Nature, and Traditions) reflects an interesting pattern seen in all others CPNT maps, the lands of “hunters”. It sounds silly as we’re used to “centrist lands”, “socialist lands”, but there is also “hunters land”. The Somme has always been where CPNT achieved their best results, in 1999 they won the department in the European elections. Jean Saint-Josse took over 10% in the department in the 2002 presidential elections. Nihous won only over 2.5% here in 2007, but even as the CPNT vote is in quick regression, it remains the best department for the party. In the 4th constituency, located around Abbeville, CPNT achieved it’s best result taking 8.9%, better than Nihous’ 5.38%. In the 3rd constituency, CPNT took over 6%, once again better than Nihous’ score here. Other hunter lands are in the Manche department, in Gironde and a few other spots here and there. The east of France, the urban areas all remain hostile to the rural party.

Since the second round of 1974 Ille-et-Vilaine is the French department that has trended the most towards the left. Mitterand took only 38.22% in 1974’s second round compared to over 60% for the centrist Giscard d’Estaing. In 2007, Segolene Royal, the socialist candidate sweeped all Breton departments except right-wing Morbihan. She took 52.39% in Illr-et-Vilaine.

The first constituency, centered around Rennes is a solid seat for the Socialists, having held it since 1997. Royal took over 60% in this constituency in the second round and the incumbent Jean-Michel Boucheron easily dominated the first round taking 42.88% to the UMP’s 21.50% and the MoDem’s 11.44%, which was over 10 points lower than Bayrou’s score in the constituency. In the second round, Boucheron took 65%

The second constituency, equally reliable for the Socialists, Philippe Tourtelier was able to lead his UMP rival and perennial candidate of the right to the Rennes mayorship Loïck Le Brun by only 1%, in a constituency where Royal took over 56%. However, in a more favorable day for the PS, Tourtelier easily won re-election taking 56.43%, a few points over Royal’s score in the second round on May 6.

In the third constituency, which elected UMP Philippe Rouault in 2002 but placed Royal in front on the first and second rounds, the left emerged split on the first round, with the 2002 PS candidate Marcel Rogemont leading a dissident candidacy over the official PS candidate Laurence Duffaud. On the first round, Rouault led Rogemont 40% to 25%, with Duffaud taking 12.57% narrowly beating a low MoDem at 8.93% (Bayrou had taken 24.44% here). With a nationwide trend favoring the left on June 17, Rogemont was elected taking 52.75%, and winning by 5.5%, but not matching Royal’s 55% in the constituency.

The fourth constituency, left open by the retirement of long time incumbent and 2002 presidential contender Alain Madelin, voted for Royal in both rounds. Jean-Rene Marsac, the Socialist candidate trailed UMP Loic Aubin on the first round 38-32, but the “pink revival” of the second round led to his election and the end of a UDF-DL-UMP hold on the seat, that had been severely reduced even by 2002, with Madelin only taking 50.62% (compared to 55% in 1997 and 58% in 1993 by the first round). From a mere 15% in 1993, the socialists were able to pick up this seat 14 years later.

In Vitre and the fifth constituency, a stronghold of the Mehaignerie “dynasty”, long time incumbent Pierre Mehaignerie was the only Ille-et-Vilaine incumbent to win re-election by the first round taking 52% to 23% for the Socialist candidate. Vitre was also Bayrou’s best I-et-V constituency, where he took 26.24%, only 4% from 30%. However, the MoDem candidate received only 13.16%.

The surprise on the election came in Fougeres and the surrouding 6th constituency where UMP incumbent Marie-Thérèse Boisseau faced general councillor Thierry Benoit of the MoDem and a Green candidate, Marie-Pierre Rouger, the same Green she had defeated in 2002, by taking 64% to Rouger’s mere 35.9%. Once again, no Socialist candidate was present (there was a Left Radical present however). While Boisseau led the first round with 37.3%, Benoit took 20.2% and qualified for the runoff. The Greens actually increased their share of votes to 18.92% but were shut out of the runoff, because they had scored only 11.67% of registered voters (French electoral law states that a runoff occurs between the candidates receiving over 12.5% of registered voters and not voting voters). Benoit found the votes, most likely from the 19% of Green and 9% of Left Radical voters to defeat Boisseau 55-45.

In the seventh constituency centered around Saint-Malo, the city’s mayor and incumbent Rene Couanau faced 2002 candidate Isabelle Thomas. Unlike in 2002 however, Couanau failed to win re-election by the first round, he did lead the first round heavily with 47% to 24.7% to Thomas and 15% to the MoDem. He was easily re-elected by the second round, Thomas’ local presence not enough for her to take the seat. What is of interest however is the MoDem candidate’s support, with 15% he had the second best MD score in the department. The candidate, mayor of Saint-Pere, a neighboring village actually won his village and surrounding villages but also the canton, likely benefiting from a favorite son factor in the election.

The chart belows compares Bayrou’s score to the actual MD scor, all showing the same pattern of above-average vote for each Bayrou and his party, but the MoDem much lower than Bayrou’s score, trend also seen nationwide, obviously.