This is meant to be a statistical analysis of the far-right, not a socio political analysis. Therefore, if your eyes can’t stand the sight of percentages, you better run away before its too late. For those still here, no better way to start off than with a neat little Excel graphic. The codes should be straightforward (L for legislative, P for presidential… you get it now). EU, regional, and local elections are not included either for lack of nationwide data or the fact that their inclusion would mess up any trend. Those elections, however, are referenced in the analysis below when they are necessary for the explanation. Lastly, you’ll probably notice that the text involves into a history of the FN, that’s because they’re the only major party of the far-right since its creation.

The above chart shows the evolution of the vote of the far-right from 1956 to 2007 (now).

Larger version

In 1956, the first major post-war far-right party/group was formed- the Poujadists, formally known as Union et fraternité française (Union and French Fraternity). The UFF’s message was radically populist, with the introduction of law projects such as the re-establishment of the States-General (abolished following the Revolution) as a third house in Parliament (to add a social representation to geographical representation). Most of the UFF’s populist, Euro-sceptic, and nationalist ideas are today part of the main ideals of the FN, not surprising considering Le Pen was elected in 1956 as a UFF deputy. Anyways, back to statistics- the UFF realized a breakthrough taking over 2,4 million votes (11.6%) and 52 seats. As other anti-establishment (in this case meaning anti-Fourth Republic) parties in France (PCF, RPF) the UFF was penalized through the complex “apparentées” laws, which was in place to favor the Third Force (Socialists, RGR, MRP, Moderate right). It could have theoretically obtained around 75 seats in a purely proportional system. The UFF was laminated two years later with the birth of the the 5th Republic, only 2 UFF incumbents were re-elected under different banners (including as Le Pen under the CNIP etiquette). The far-right won 3.29% in 1958 and declined to 0.87% in 1962. In the 1965 presidential election, the candidate of the far-right, Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour obtained 5.2% but his candidacy failed to rally many voters not traditionally of the nationalist right. In 1966, the “Tixier Committees” (various far-right parties) were dissolved, which led to the division of the far-right into various short-lived parties. In the 1967 election the far-right fell to only 0.85%. Tixier-Vignancour was defeated in Toulon. In 1968, the far-right obtained its lowest score ever: 0.13%.

In 1972, the nationalist movement Ordre Nouveau, a neo-fascist movement similar to the Italian MSI or German NPD decided to contest the 1973 legislative elections as a larger movement- the National Front. The 1973 FN, similar to the UFF in terms of ideology, obtained 1.32% in the 1973 elections. Le Pen obtained 5.22% in Paris, the best score by a FN candidate that year. Ordre Nouveau was later dissolved by Raymond Marcellin, the Minister of the Interior in June 1973 following a violent anti-immigration rally. Led in an authoritarian fashion by Le Pen, the FN split with Ordre Nouveau, whose few supporters formed the PFN (Party of New Forces) in 1974.

Le Pen, the FN candidate in the 1974 election ran under a ultra-nationalist and populist platform, but obtained only 0.75% and supported VGE in the runoff. In the following 1978 and 1981 legislative elections, the FN obtained less than 1% in both years. In fact, the FN had only 270 members in 1980! Due to three right-wing (RPR) candidates and the pressure of the PFN, Le Pen was not able to obtain his 500 signatures mandatory to run in the 1981 presidential election. In the 1982 cantonale elections (locals), the FN began its non-stop rise, obtaining scores over 12% in various cantons in the Nord-Pas de Calais region. In the 1983 municipal elections, the far-right, even though it had obtained only 0.11% on a national level, obtained scores such as 11.3% for Le Pen in Paris’ 20th arrondissement. However, the first true success for the party came in the 1984 Euro elections where it obtained 10.95% nationally and 10 MEPs. With the rise of the FN, the PFN was dissolved in 1984- the FN had occupied the area of the French far-right.

In the 1986 election, held under proportional representation, the FN surged from 0.36% in 1981 to 9.85% that year. It elected 35 deputies, including Le Pen, Megret, Gollnisch, Peyrat (now UMP mayor of Nice), and Stirbois. The party’s top score in a department was 22.53% in the Bouches-du-Rhone, which became a long-time bastion of the far-right. In the simultaneous regional elections, the FN took 9.56% and elected 137 frontiste councillors. The support of the FN to the RPR/UDF allowed the right to gain the presidency of 7 regions, furthermore, the FN was represented in four, later six regional executives.

In 1987, Le Pen announced his candidacy in the 1988 election under a program not very different from his original 1974 program. Le Pen obtained 14.38%, much higher than 0.74% 14 years prior. In the subsequent legislative elections (held under the old two-round system, not PR) after a dissolution by newly re-elected President Mitterand, the FN and the far-right took “only” 9.79% but nonetheless placed ahead of the right (RPR/UDF) in 9 constituencies (8 in the Bouches-du-Rhone and 1 in the Var) . However, due to the end of PR, the FN lost all of its 35 seats except one in the Var, where Yann Piat was elected in that department’s 3rd constituency (she was excluded/left the FN to join the UDF before being killed in 1994). In the 1992 regional elections, the FN obtained 239 councillors in 22 metro regions.

In the 1993 elections, the FN and the far-right (mostly the smaller Alliance Nationale) obtained a total of 12.72%, and the presence of FN candidates in various runoffs could be held responsible for the defeat of the right and the re-election of Socialist incumbents in the weird constituencies, “marginal constituencies” using the British term. In the 1995 presidential election, Le Pen went up to 15% and in the subsequent June municipal elections, the FN elected mayors in three major cities (Marignane, Toulon, and Orange; later Vitrolles in 1996).

In the 1997 legislative elections, the FN obtained its best result ever in a legislative election- a total of 15.05% for the FN and other far-right parties. The FN mayor of Toulon Jean-Marie Le Chevallier was elected with 53.16% in the runoff, but his election was invalidated in 1998 and his wife, FN candidate in the subsequent by-election, was defeated.

In the March 1998 regional elections, the FN obtained 275 councillors in total, but in late 1998 and early 1999, the FN split with Bruno Megret leaving the FN to form the MNR. It is good to add that the Le Pen-Megret confrontation was long-lasting and not born in 1998 as many wrongly assume. With Megret and the new MNR went 140 FN regional councillors (131 stayed with the FN and 4 went other ways, including to a far-right Alsace regionalist movement). Le Chevallier, mayor of Toulon also left the FN to the MNR (he was defeated for re-election by the first round in 2001).

When people think of the French far-right they automatically think of 2002, not without reason. Although Le Pen increased his score of only 1.86% compared to his 1995 candidacy, the division of the left caused the defeat by the first round of Jospin and the qualification of Le Pen for the runoff. Surprisingly, the total left (PRG, PS, MDC etc) obtained more votes that the right and the far-right! The chart above (if you remember it after all this text) also counts the often-forgotten candidacy of Bruno Megret, who obtained 2.34% giving the FN-MNR a total of 19.20% of the votes nationally. Le Pen was of course defeated in the runoff taking only 18% to Chirac’s 82%. In the subsequent legislative election, the FN and MNR ran separate candidates and the far-right obtained only 12.67% in total, and all its candidates qualified for runoffs were defeated, including Jacques Bompard, mayor of Orange (re-elected in 2001 as FN, but now with de Villier’s MPF).

Contrary to what many thought would be the far-right’s first foray into 20% territory, Le Pen obtained only 10.44% in the 2007 presidential election, a poll afterwards showed that around 30% of his electors voted for the UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy. If those 32% had not voted for the UMP, Le Pen would have taken 21% of the vote and Sarkozy would have come second, not first, behind the PS candidate Segolene Royal. The FN disaster continued after the April presidential election- the far-right took only 4.68% in the first round of the June legislative election. The FN itself tied with the Communists, a party the FN had surpassed for the first time in 1986, with 4.29% each. Only one FN candidate reached the runoff, in the Pas de Calais department (constituency of Henin-Beaumont), Le Pen’s daughter who surprisingly increased the score of the far-right compared to June 2002. Apparently, the FN is hoping to win Henin-Beaumont in the 2008 local elections.

Is it the end of the non-stop rise for the FN? Maybe. Is it, however, the end of the far-right in France? Probably not. In fact, in a by-election in November of 2007, the FN candidate increased his party’s score from a mere 3-4% to 8%. The FN is polling at 8% for the March 2008 local elections.

Although not related to the crazy percentages here at all, it is interesting to note that numerous personalities of what is today the UMP or the UDF began their political careers in the far-right, as many PS personalities began theirs in the far-left PSU. Patrick Devedjian, Gérard Longuet, Alain Madelin were all members of Occident, a neo-fascist group that existed in the 1960s. Funnily, all three above are now pro-European and the latter two are liberals. Jacques Peyrat, UMP mayor of Nice as of now, was also a FN deputy elected in 1986.

Lastly, another thing to think about- as said above about the 1993 election, the presence of FN candidates in legislative runoffs could be blamed for the defeat of the candidates of the parliamentary right (RPR, UDF, DL, UMP) and the election of the left. In fact, in 1997, some RPR and UDF candidates were defeated by the left and the FN in three-way races, called triangulaires. Supporters of the right call these (in)famous races the triangulaires de la mort (transliterated into the triangular races of death).

Part 2- the geographic base of the FN

The Cotes d’Armor has for a long time been the left’s stronghold in Brittany. If one looks through old electoral statistics, the left has always achieved stronger results in Cotes d’Armor than elsewhere in Brittany. In 2007, Segolene Royal took 30% by the first round and 55% on the second round, compared to 28% in Ille-et-Vilaine and 29% in Finistère. The Communists have also performed above average here, for example Buffet took 2.32% in the department, compared to around 1.9% nationally. Geographically, Socialist support is concentrated heavily in the west of the department, in the constituencies of Guingamp and Lannion while also acheiving high results in Saint Brieuc. The eastern regions, Dinan and Loudeac trend minimally more towards the right, and of those two only Loudeac and the south of the department are more right-wing than its neighboring regions. In the first round of the 2007 presidential election, Dinan and Loudeac voted for Sarkozy, the three other constituencies voted for Royal, with her scores in these three constituencies above her departmental average. Royal won all constituencies in the second round, including Loudeac and Dinan. Once again, a clear east-west divide is seen- she took 52% in Loudeac and Dinan but from 55 to 61% in the three other constituencies.

The results of the first round of the legislative election in Cotes d’Armor illustrated excellently the blue wave of the first round. UMP candidates took the lead in 3 constituencies, with Socialists leading in 2 constituencies. One could have believed the left’s lock on the department was crumbling, though that was not the case.

In the first constituency, Saint Brieuc, seat held by the Socialiste Danielle Bousquet, and a generally safe seat for the PS, the result showed a blue wave too, the UMP was up from 25% in 2002 to around 36%! Also, the Socialist vote was up too, from 34% to 39%. However, in 2002, a UDF candidate had taken 12% here, and in 2007 the MoDem ran no candidate in this constituency, the only constituency where they didn’t do so. To explain the increase in Socialist vote, there was less of a division in left-wing votes than in 2002, the idea of vote utile being shown here. Both the Communist and Green vote was down, the PCF had won 7.6% in 2002, the Greens 4.6%, and the Pole Republicain had 1.5%. In 2007, the Communists collapsed to 5.4%, and the Greens were down to 4.5%. Bousquet was of course re-elected, with over 57.7%, higher than her 55% score in 2002 and only a few points higher than Royal’s 57.2%.

The second constituency, formed by Dinan, Cap Frehel, Plancoet voted for Sarkozy in the first round and the seat itself is a marginal. In the first round, Michel Vaspart, UMP candidate on his second try, led the Socialist incumbent Jean Gaubert by two votes! The surge of the left nationwide in the second round provided Gaubert with the power to trounce Vaspart 54.7% to 45.3%. In 2002, the result had been much more marginal, Gaubert had defeated Vaspart with only 50.12%.

The third constituency, dominated by Loudéac and Lamballe, the first one being a city of the right, the other being a city of the left. The constituency is the only one held by the right. The first round of 2007 was easily dominated by the UMP incumbent Marc Le Fur, who was only 2% away from being elected by the first round. He took 48.02%, the Socialists over 10 points behind with 34.7%. Equally surprising is the scale of the centre’s collapse from Bayrou’s 21% in April to the MoDem’s mere 2.9% in June. In the south, Loudéac and surrouding villages all voted at over 50% for Le Fur, while Lamballe voted, in scores much closer than in the south, primarily for the Socialist candidate. In the second round, Le Fur was re-elected taking 52%, down only a few points from 52.7% in 2002.

Guingamp and its constituency is the most solid Socialist constituency in the department, Royal took over 61% in the second round here. This seat is also part of western Brittany’s red belt, the belt that extends into Morbihan where Communists achieve high scores. In fact, in 1997, a Communist was elected in a race including a Socialist candidate. In 2002, the Communists lost half their 1997 vote and fell to 15.8%. In 2007, the Socialist incumbent Marie-Renée Oget easily won the first round taking 32.6% to the UMP’s 26.16%. The Communists achieved their best score region wide, with over 12% and coming first in 5 towns. The MoDem also won 3 towns and took 10.2% in the constituency as a whole. The UDB, a left-wing autonomist party, leader and regional councillor Mona Bras won 4.9%. In the second round, Oget, with a strong reserve from the Communists and UDB easily won, trouncing the UMP with her 63%.

The fifth constituency, whose main city is Lannion votes, more or less, like the department as a whole. With the “blue wave” of the first round, the UMP candidate came out on top with 34% to the Socialist’s 33%. The MoDem was also strong, with 10.9%, the centre’s best score in the department, although far from Bayrou’s 21% in April. Continuing it’s local bellwether tradition, the Socialists carried the seat with 56%, increasing the party’s marginal 50.92% in 2002. The right came out on top, although most times by almost nothing, in the richer seaside resorts, for example Perros Guirec.

As for summing up a general trend in the department, the west is safe Socialist, the east is more marginal, with the south of the department being more rightwards leaning. Without forgetting of course the red belt in the west. Ahead of the 2008 municipal elections, the Socialists will be trying to take back Saint Brieuc from the right, after the left had lost it in 2001. Another target within the left’s reach is Dinan, which voted Socialist in the second round of the legislative elections and whose town hall is currently held by the right.

This map showing the vote received by candidates of CPNT (Hunting, Fishing, Nature, and Traditions) reflects an interesting pattern seen in all others CPNT maps, the lands of “hunters”. It sounds silly as we’re used to “centrist lands”, “socialist lands”, but there is also “hunters land”. The Somme has always been where CPNT achieved their best results, in 1999 they won the department in the European elections. Jean Saint-Josse took over 10% in the department in the 2002 presidential elections. Nihous won only over 2.5% here in 2007, but even as the CPNT vote is in quick regression, it remains the best department for the party. In the 4th constituency, located around Abbeville, CPNT achieved it’s best result taking 8.9%, better than Nihous’ 5.38%. In the 3rd constituency, CPNT took over 6%, once again better than Nihous’ score here. Other hunter lands are in the Manche department, in Gironde and a few other spots here and there. The east of France, the urban areas all remain hostile to the rural party.

Since the second round of 1974 Ille-et-Vilaine is the French department that has trended the most towards the left. Mitterand took only 38.22% in 1974’s second round compared to over 60% for the centrist Giscard d’Estaing. In 2007, Segolene Royal, the socialist candidate sweeped all Breton departments except right-wing Morbihan. She took 52.39% in Illr-et-Vilaine.

The first constituency, centered around Rennes is a solid seat for the Socialists, having held it since 1997. Royal took over 60% in this constituency in the second round and the incumbent Jean-Michel Boucheron easily dominated the first round taking 42.88% to the UMP’s 21.50% and the MoDem’s 11.44%, which was over 10 points lower than Bayrou’s score in the constituency. In the second round, Boucheron took 65%

The second constituency, equally reliable for the Socialists, Philippe Tourtelier was able to lead his UMP rival and perennial candidate of the right to the Rennes mayorship Loïck Le Brun by only 1%, in a constituency where Royal took over 56%. However, in a more favorable day for the PS, Tourtelier easily won re-election taking 56.43%, a few points over Royal’s score in the second round on May 6.

In the third constituency, which elected UMP Philippe Rouault in 2002 but placed Royal in front on the first and second rounds, the left emerged split on the first round, with the 2002 PS candidate Marcel Rogemont leading a dissident candidacy over the official PS candidate Laurence Duffaud. On the first round, Rouault led Rogemont 40% to 25%, with Duffaud taking 12.57% narrowly beating a low MoDem at 8.93% (Bayrou had taken 24.44% here). With a nationwide trend favoring the left on June 17, Rogemont was elected taking 52.75%, and winning by 5.5%, but not matching Royal’s 55% in the constituency.

The fourth constituency, left open by the retirement of long time incumbent and 2002 presidential contender Alain Madelin, voted for Royal in both rounds. Jean-Rene Marsac, the Socialist candidate trailed UMP Loic Aubin on the first round 38-32, but the “pink revival” of the second round led to his election and the end of a UDF-DL-UMP hold on the seat, that had been severely reduced even by 2002, with Madelin only taking 50.62% (compared to 55% in 1997 and 58% in 1993 by the first round). From a mere 15% in 1993, the socialists were able to pick up this seat 14 years later.

In Vitre and the fifth constituency, a stronghold of the Mehaignerie “dynasty”, long time incumbent Pierre Mehaignerie was the only Ille-et-Vilaine incumbent to win re-election by the first round taking 52% to 23% for the Socialist candidate. Vitre was also Bayrou’s best I-et-V constituency, where he took 26.24%, only 4% from 30%. However, the MoDem candidate received only 13.16%.

The surprise on the election came in Fougeres and the surrouding 6th constituency where UMP incumbent Marie-Thérèse Boisseau faced general councillor Thierry Benoit of the MoDem and a Green candidate, Marie-Pierre Rouger, the same Green she had defeated in 2002, by taking 64% to Rouger’s mere 35.9%. Once again, no Socialist candidate was present (there was a Left Radical present however). While Boisseau led the first round with 37.3%, Benoit took 20.2% and qualified for the runoff. The Greens actually increased their share of votes to 18.92% but were shut out of the runoff, because they had scored only 11.67% of registered voters (French electoral law states that a runoff occurs between the candidates receiving over 12.5% of registered voters and not voting voters). Benoit found the votes, most likely from the 19% of Green and 9% of Left Radical voters to defeat Boisseau 55-45.

In the seventh constituency centered around Saint-Malo, the city’s mayor and incumbent Rene Couanau faced 2002 candidate Isabelle Thomas. Unlike in 2002 however, Couanau failed to win re-election by the first round, he did lead the first round heavily with 47% to 24.7% to Thomas and 15% to the MoDem. He was easily re-elected by the second round, Thomas’ local presence not enough for her to take the seat. What is of interest however is the MoDem candidate’s support, with 15% he had the second best MD score in the department. The candidate, mayor of Saint-Pere, a neighboring village actually won his village and surrounding villages but also the canton, likely benefiting from a favorite son factor in the election.

The chart belows compares Bayrou’s score to the actual MD scor, all showing the same pattern of above-average vote for each Bayrou and his party, but the MoDem much lower than Bayrou’s score, trend also seen nationwide, obviously.