More cantonal by-election fun!

There was also a by-election in Avallon, Yonne to replace a PS councillor who passed away. Avallon is located in the southeast of the department and is almost entirely classified as urban/commuter belt, centred around Avallon (pop 06: 7,874), the fourth city in the department.

First Round, January 11

I : 8.745 ; V : 3.408 ; Exp : 3.333 ; Abs: 61,03 %

Isabelle Huberdeau (DVG) : 1.644 (49,32%)
Pascal Germain (DVD) : 1.435 (43,05%)
Claude Moreau (SE) : 174 (5,22%)
Marie-Solange Mansard (FN) : 80 (2,40%)

The PS candidate won 42% in 2004, and 52% in the runoff. The UMP incumbent (who had won narrowly in 1998) won 38% and 48% in the runoff. The FN won 13% back then.

Runoff, January 18

I : 8.745 ; V :: 4.027 ; Exp :: 3.934 ; Abst : 53,95%

Mme Isabelle Huberdeau (DVG) : 2.107 (53.56%)
M Pascal Germain (DVD) : 1.827 (46.44%)

In Douarnenez, the by-election which I’ve been following rather closely, right-wing voters turned out way more in the runoff, and Le Floch defied expectations and won (by a rather impressive margin, considering the odds were all against him).

Runoff, January 18

I : 19.101 ; V : 6.662 ; Rxp : 6.435 ; Abs: 65,12%

M Hugues Tupin (PCF) : 2.993 (46.51%)
M Erwan Le Floch (UMP) 3.442 (53.49%)

Tupin’s result is close to that of all the non-nationalist left-wing forces in the first round, but abstention changed in the UMP’s favour.

In the Ain, there were two by-election first rounds today.

Miribel (Ain)

I : 13.817 ; V : 2.870 ; Exp : 2.846 ; Abs : 79,23%

M Joël Aubernon (DVD) : 1.026 (36.05%)
M Pierre Goubet (DVG) : 869 (30.53%)
Mme Josiane Bouvier (PS) : 513 (18.03%)
M Georges Baulmont (DVG) : 237 (8.33%)
M Jacques Darves (PCF) : 76 (2.67%)
M Patrick Bouchard (FN) : 125 (4.39%)

Miribel is a suburb of Lyon. According to Insee stats, less than 30% of the population work in the canton. As it often is with urban cantons, abstention was sky-high.

The incumbent is a leftie, elected with over 51% by the first round in 2004. The FN won almost 17% in 2004. Combined leftie forces here are 59.6%, and unless the four lefties hate each other to death, Goubet should win relatively easily (however… remember Pouilly-en-Auxois last year…)

Saint-Trivier-de-Courtes (Ain)

I : 4.153 ; V : 1.727 ; Exp :: 1.673 ; Abs : 58,42%

M Armel Morel (DVD) : 1.106 (66.11%)
M Gilles Peisson (PS) : 449 (26.84%)
M Gilbert Chossat (PCF) : 118 (7.05%)

Primarily rural canton of northern Ain, though the south of the canton is now in Bourg-en-Bresse’ commuter belt. Around +10% for the PS since 2004, and minor gains for the PCF too.

Upcoming cantonal by-elections include Valenton (Val-de-Marne) and Villecresnes (Val-de-Marne) in one week. The first one is held by a retiring PCF mayor and councillor, who won 100% in a 2004 runoff. Villecresnes is held by a UMP general councillor who won 57% in March last year whose election was voided because envelopes were sent to voters and these did not contain the profession de foi (program) of a DVD candidate. There will also be a by-election in Privas (Ardeche), since the PS incumbent was forced to step down following his election to the Senate. He had won over 60% in the 2004 runoff. I don’t know the date of that by-election. Privas is the fifth largest city in the department.

The first round of a cantonal election to replace outgoing Douarnenez UMP councillor Philippe Paul (elected as Senator in September) was held today. The canton is composed of the city of Douarnenez itself, as well as surrounding commuter belt communes. Douarnenez, once the stronghold of sardine factories, and the first city to elect a Communist mayor in the early 20s, was gained by the UMP (from the PS, which had won it from the UDF in 2001, which had defeated the PCF administration in 1995) in March last year. The sardine industry is reduced to little if anything at all, and the harbour has turned into your usual leisure port.

A map of the canton is available here.

The candidates were:

Hugues Tupin, Douarnenez municipal councillor (PCF)
Hervé Fourn,  Douarnenez municipal councillor (PS)
Bernard Conan (MoDem)
Jean Cathala, 2008 candidate (Greenies)
Erwan Le Floch, deputy mayor of Douarnenez (DVD)
Arnaud Vannier (Breizhistance). Left-wing Breton nat movement.

The MoDem didn’t run a candidate against Paul, an ex-UDF himself, in March last year, but is doing so this time.

The results are

I : 19 101 ; V : 5 589 ; Exp : 5 478 ; Abs: 71,32 %

Hugues Tupin (PCF, though apparently counted as DVG) : 1 028 (18.77%)
Hervé Fourn (PS) : 981 (17.91%)
Bernard Conan (Modem) : 613 (11.19%)
Jean Cathala (Verts) : 510 (9.31%)
Erwan Le Floch (DVD, though apparently counted as SE) : 2 112 (38.55%)
Arnaud Vannier (Breizhistance) : 234 (4.27%)

Some random scenarios now.

Firstly, the state of the various forces

Tupin (PCF+PS+Greenies+Nats) 50.26
Le Floch 38.55
Centrists 11.19

The Nats might not turn out en masse in the runoff, giving Tupin 45.99% then. Splitting the MoDem is more tricky. Breton MoDem voters generally split for the left by a quite important margin. According to my quick, unreliable, and very sketchy calculations, around 58% of Bayrou’s 22.5% in the canton of Douarnenez voted for Royal in the runoff (Royal won 54.6%). According to even sketchier and even more unreliable calculations, 61% of MoDem voters (12.2%) voted for the PS candidate in the general election (who won 50.6%). Assuming 61% of the MoDem voters this time voted for the leftie, and not counting Nats, Tupin wins 51%. And nearly 55% if the all the Nats turn out for Tupin. Hard to see a scenario where Le Floch wins this one, unless the dynamics of abstention change dramatically, or MoDem voters don’t turn out en masse for a Communist.

I’m therefore predicting a PCF pickup, which would return them to the general council, from which they are shut out of since they lost Huelgoat, their last canton, in March last year.

Bit late on this stuff, but I haven’t killed off this thing yet.

First, old first round stuff from nearly three weeks ago.

UMP 28.64
PS 28.05
Falala 20.94
MoDem 7.62
PCF 4.41
LCR 3.84
FN 3.05
Greenies 2.93
DVG 0.51
UMP+DVD: 49.58%
Abstention: 78.21%

The “UMP” etiquette helped Robinet quite a bit, especially considering the guy had no name recognition whatsoever or almost. Falala increased a bit from 2007, but not as much as I would’ve predicted in the first place.

Runoff stuff. Robinet wins 52.49 vs. 47.51 for Quenard. Abstention was 75.84. Seems like some good transfers from Falala to Robinet, seems a bit better than the Falala-Dutreil transfers in 2007.

Some stuff on local by-elections mentioned in my other post

Mézières Centre-Ouest (Ardennes)

DVG: 52.81
Indie-DVD-MoDem: 21.35
UMP: 18.62
Greenie: 4.74
FN: 2.47

DVG 65.88
Indie 34.12

Cagnes-sur-Mer Centre (Alpes-Maritimes)

UMP: 43.04%
PCF: 24.92%
DVD: 13.50%
DVD: 8.65%
FN: 9.89%

UMP 60.9
PCF 39.1

Grasse-Nord (Alpes-Maritimes)

UMP 52.88
DVG 22.10
PS 20.9
NC/Ecolo 4.12
UMP 58.4
DVG 41.6

Saint-Martin-Vésubie (Alpes-Maritimes)

UMP 78.46
PS 12.20
PCF 4.5
FN 2.68
Fascist (Idenditaires, a politically correct way to refer to white supremacists and racist xenophobes) 2.16

Allauch (Bouches-du-Rhone)

PS 59.87
UMP 16.82
PCF 6.57
DVD 5.26
FN 4.36
Greenie 3.21

PS 77
UMP 23

Berre L’Etang (Bouches-du-Rhone)

Mario Martinet (PS): 56.56%
Gérald Autechaud (PCF): 19.12%
Ange Venterelli (UMP): 15.55%
Gérald Gérin (FN): 8.76%

PS 100.0% in runoff. PCF dropped out.

Chateauroux-Centre (Indre)

UMP 30.02
PS 20.20
DVD 11.77
Indie 9.62
DVD 7
NPA 6.27
PCF 6.07
Greens 4.78
MoDem 4.28

UMP 53.47
PS 46.53

Aurillac-4 (Cantal)

DVD 53.60 / 57.10
PS 46.40 / 42.90

PRG incumbent, became surprise Senator in September.

Saint-Flour-Sud (Cantal)

DVG 50.54 / 53.18
UMP 49.46 / 46.82

Massively (70+) UMP in 2004.

The Cantal results are interesting. Aurillac is an industrial and secular area, as opposed to a conservative and Catholic department. In the middle of old RadSoc land, all Aurillac cantons were held by the left since 1994, and a few of those never elected a rightie. Saint-Flour-Sud is composed of part of Saint-Flour but also very conservative agricultural areas to the south of the canton. Saint-Flour itself remains a relatively conservative city, though there is a sizable left-wing electorate, as in every urban core. So, to say the least, surprising stuff here. A few explanations could be attempted. The PS winner in Saint-Flour is not a nobody in the canton - he’s the mayor of a rural commune, Villedieu. He was “running mate” to the PS Senatorial candidate in September. Rural voters are known to be close to their elected officials. Also, the dynamics of a by-election in rural land. Rural electorates are known to be volatile in by-elections (see Eure-et-Loir). In Aurillac-4, it is highly possible that Jacques Mezard, the PRG incumbent, had a personal vote and the by-election is the logical effect of his departure. We will have to wait until 2010 for Saint-Flour-Sud to confirm that it is a swing canton, and 2014 for Aurillac-4. In the meantime.

Renaud Dutreil, initially a rising star in the UMP and since March 2008 an epic failure in politics, has resigned to move to the United States to work for LVMH. At first elected in the Aisne, he carpetbagged to the Marne (in Reims) in 2007 with the city of Reims in mind. But in March 2008, he was defeated by the first round in Reims by the local UMP dissident Catherine Vautrin and the subsequent Socialist winner, Adeline Hazan. He has thus decided to leave politics and leaves his new constituency, Marne-1, which is entirely composed of a fraction of the city of Reims, vacant. A by-election will be held December 7 and 14.

In 2007, he defeated the UMP incumbent Francis Falala for the UMP nomination and ended a very, very long family dynasty control on the constituency. Francis Falala had suceeded his father, deputy and former Mayor of Reims, in 2002. His father had held the seat under the various Gaullist party names since ‘67. Falala tried in vain to stage a dissident candidacy against Dutreil but lost by the first round. He has since fallen out with the local UMP machine and they even ran a candidate against him in his canton in March (though that UMP paper candidate was trounced by Falala).

The 2007 results:
UMP 38.84
PS 23.93
Falala 17.34
MoDem 7.77
PCF 3.17
Greenies 2.93
FN 2.48
LCR 2.11
LO 0.65, Div 0.54, MNR 0.24

Dutreil beat the PS 54-46. Falala’s voters did not split massively for Dutreil. Do note that abstention was nearly 50% in both rounds.

Falala is running again, and the UMP has decided on a paper candidate. The 2007 PS candidate, who has since become a high-ranking member of the PS administration in Reims, is running again, as is a PS dissident. Apart from those four, there is a Greenie, a Commie, a Trot, a MoDem, and a FN.

Should be interesting, definitely. Falala is the one with the best name recognition on the right, since Robinet seems like a random name taken out of a hat by the local UMP (which, btw, loves to lose elections. Kinda like the Illinois GOP). A Falala/PS runoff is definitely a possibility, and I think in that scenario, the right’s victory would be quite comfortable, moreso than a Robinet/PS. If the UMP candidate (Robinet) loses, then the Vautrin leadership in the local UMP machine will need to face serious scrutiny.

Also being held tomorrow are a few cantonal by-elections.

Mézières Centre-Ouest (Ardennes): December 7-14, 2008

2008 Results
DVG 24.39
UMP 20.30
Indie 17.35
Greens 15.92
PCF 8.48
MoDem 5.69
FN 5.60
MRC 2.27

DVG 60.47
UMP 39.53

Cagnes-sur-Mer Centre (Alpes-Maritimes): December 7-14, 2008

2004 Results
UMP 45.26
FN 22.40
PS 15.71
Ecologist 4.66
DVD 4.19
DVD 2.53
PCF 2.82
MNR 1.33

UMP 70.70
FN 29.30

Grasse-Nord (Alpes-Maritimes): December 7-14, 2008

2004 Results
UMP 36.05
PS 31.03
FN 19.29
PCF 4.56
Ecologist 3.70
EXG 2.51
DVD 1.49
EXG 1.36

UMP 43.20
PS 40.81
FN 15.98

Saint-Martin-Vésubie (Alpes-Maritimes): December 7-14, 2008

2004 Results
UMP 60.02
DVD 30.14
FN 7.05
PCF 2.80
Epic fail.

Grasse-Nord is probably the only one that will be remotely interesting, though Mézières Centre-Ouest could be fun too, especially because that left-wing Indie is running again. Saint-Martin-Vésubie will be hilarious just to watch the ownage of the opposition.

After all, I did look like a fool with my stupid UMP prediction in Gironde, and a very big foolish hack at that too. I should have read more into the leftie leaning of MoDem voters in this part of the world.

Anyways. Deluga won, and by a quite impressive margin (much larger than the last time he won, in ‘97), but it remains a by-election with sub-5o turnout and it’s wise not to go all crazy over these results. Turnout was slightly up from 38% in the first round to 43% this time, and those new voters went heavily for the Socialist. Deluga won with 54.3%, against 45.7% for Foulon. The MoDem voters likely split heavily for Deluga. I assume he also won MoDem voters in the 2007 runoff, or at worst lost them narrowly.

The Gironde prefecture remains a total joke, so there’s obviously little chance that communal data will ever be known.

The first round of the parliamentary by-election the 8th constituency of Gironde was held a week ago. The seat, which claims the “largest seat in France” status (around with 5 other constituencies, of which all are bogus), stretches from the wealthy and rightie Arcachon to the more blue-collar and leftie areas in the rest of the constituency. The seat has been held since 2002 by Marie-Hélène des Esgaulx (UMP), who was elected Senator in September and prompted this by-election. The seat was held from 1997 to 2002 by the Socialist François Deluga. The UDF won the seat in 1988 and 1993. The media didn’t say anything about this election, or else I would have posted a more complete profile of the constituency. Deluga is running in a third attempt to regain his seat lost in 2002. Yves Foulon, Mayor of Arcachon, ran as a DVD dissident candidate against des Esgaulx in 2002. This constituency is also one of the top CPNT constituencies: Saint-Josse polled over 11% here in 2002. The FN used to poll double digits in its good days here, over 12% in 1997 and Le Pen won nearly 15% in 2002.

François Deluga (PS) 43.77 (+12.27)
Yves Foulon (UMP) 40.95 (-6.6)
Emmanuel Perrin (CPNT) 3.78 (+1.18)
Jacques Courmontagne (MoDem) 3.57 (-3.29)
Monique Nicolas (LCR) 3.22 (+1.22)
André-Christian Darriet (PCF) 2.31 (+0.59)
Lydie Croizier (FN) 2.30 (-0.46)
Sébastien Jacques (DVD) 0.07 (new)

Parliamentary Left (PS, PCF) 46.08
Right (UMP, CPNT, DVD) 44.8

The race will be tight, and very tough it seems for Foulon. Adding the LCR’s 3% in its entirety to Deluga/PCF, he has 49.3% (be careful doing that. Trot voters are unreliable in runoffs). Adding the FN’s 2.3% to Foulon/CPNT he has 47.1%. Once again, the MoDem’s weak but important 3.57% will likely decide the runoff. I’ll either look like a total fool and hack or a great predictor in a few hours, but I’m going to predict a narrow UMP victory. After all, I did very well predicting the last two by-elections (Rhone-11 and Eure-et-Loir-1), so jamais deux sans trois I hope!

Here is a map of 2007. The Gironde prefecture is a total joke, and has only posted the generic percentages without communal data. If only everybody was like the Rhone prefecture…

I didn’t follow the race as I should’ve, and was caught by surprise this Monday morning with a snippet on Le Monde about the by-election. The first round was held on Sunday the 7th, and the runoff is this Sunday. I didn’t keep tabs on the candidate, so I didn’t spot the MoDem not running a candidate.

Despite what the media said, the results are actually pretty close. On paper and strictly speaking, not really, but when you analyse them, they are. Gorges (UMP) won 47.76% of the vote. Most of that vote is UMP, of course, but a big part of the traditional MoDem vote went with him. The PS candidate won 28.09%, and a dissident took 14.51. The UMP is up 11.5% from the first by-election, so it corresponds to a chunk of the MoDem vote (which represented 18.5% last time). The PS is statistically down nearly 10 points, but the PS+PSd vote is actually up 4.6%. The rest of the MoDem vote went with one of the two PS candidates. The FN won 3.79, which is down from both the 2007 and the first by-election result (-0.39). Jamais deux sans trois. The LCR ran a candidate this time ’round, and he won 3.41%, up from 2.47 in 2007 (probably took most of the 2007 LO vote, which was about 1.2% IIRC). The Commies lost 1.4% of their by-election result and fell to 2.44. The POI (the new name for the Workers’ Party, a tiny joke Trot sect) won only one vote.

All this nice stuff gives up Right 47.76% vs. Mainstream Left and Trots 48.45% vs. FN 4.18%. Which corresponds to a very tight result. Tighter than the Rhone-11 by-election also covered here. I’m predicting a narrow UMP victory for now, and I’m eyeing a replay of the June 2007 results, where Gorges won by a handful of votes (50ish IIRC). A PS win is also a very realistic possibility, though.

A UMP re-gain would certainly be a bit of good news for the party, which of course hasn’t had the best fortunes lately. That could also be some bad news for the PS, although they might not notice it since they seem busy fighting each other this moment.

For anyone interested, the prefecture has detailed cantonal and communal data here. In PDF format.

For those of you who have followed recent French by-elections you’ll probably ask why the 1st Eure-et-Loir constituency comes up a second time. The reason is hilarious. In December 2007, the UMP deputy for the constituency, Jean-Pierre Gorges saw his election invalidated. In January, he was defeated by the Socialist Francoise Vallet. Just now, she has been invalidated for a reason that is a little silly: a supermarket campaigned for her and she accepted the endorsement. In addition to the silly reason, she is ineligible for any elected office for a period of one year. So, for the third (in some cases, fourth) the voters will need to elect another deputy hoping he or she isn’t invalidated in August or September.

The constituency is a bellwether constituency: in 1988 and 1997 it elected PS deputies, in 1993, 2002, and June 2007 it elected a RPR or UMP deputy. However, the June 2007 election was very close, with Gorges (UMP) defeating Vallet (PS) by a handful of votes. By the time of the 1st by-election in January 2008, the government’s popularity had dipped and the PS won with 55.3% in the runoff, probably taking most of the MoDem’s 18.5%. The March 2008 Chartres local election was a replay of the by-election, with the top three candidates in the by-election standing as candidates of their respective parties. Vallet was heavily favoured to win and the MoDem, which polled only 13.5% merged with Vallet’s list. Mathematically, it was quite hard for Gorges to win. But he did. And not by a handful of votes, more like 55-45. MoDem voters probably voted against their party’s line. Based on the 55-45 result in the last election, the race definitely leans to the Socialists, but the defeat of Vallet in Chartres in March makes this more competitive. The PS needs to hold this seat, and the UMP needs to regain this seat. The MoDem, which polled 18.5% in the by-election but only 13.5% in Chartres (the MoDem took over 18% in the city in June and the by-election) must try to keep its result up at 18%. The FN, which polled 12% in 2002 but 5% in June and 4.2% in January will probably try to get back atleast to its 5% result.

Firstly, the results before anything else

NC-UMP 51.36%
PS 48.64%

So, my prediction of 51-49 was quite spot on, and what I had seen happening happened. Turnout remained horrid (29%) and the PS candidate took almost all of the PCF, Greenies, PRG etc. voters but didn’t get the key to all this, the MoDem, which likely broke narrowly for Durand (NC). This result is very much like Fenech’s 2002 result, where the UMP gained the seat from the PS with 52% of the vote.

The Prefecture of the Rhone still has communal data for the runoff, so…

The PS did extremely well in the Givors area and also in the bellwether canton of Condrieu (which probably broke narrowly for Durand, still). The PS also won a few communes in the north of Mornant canton. Save for the Lyon suburb of Mions, which went PS, Durand won Saint-Symphorien quite heavily, probably a mix of both it being very right-wing and him being the general councillor for the canton.

So, that’s that. Let’s wait eagerly for the next by-election, now.

The first round of the by-election in the 11th constituency of the Rhone was held today after the election of Georges Fenech (UMP) was invalidated by the Constitutional Council. 9 candidates were standing.

Before anything else, the results.

NC-UMP 41.78%
PS 23.29%
PCF 15.32%
Greenies 6.25%
MoDem 5.09%
FN 4.04%
LCR 3.32%
PRG 0.48%
ARC 0.45%

Basically the pattern to be expected for the NC-UMP, they lost 6.31% over June 2007, a result of bad turnout (27.03%) and the UMP’s current unpopularity. The Socialists lost 0.35%, but considering how strong the PCF ran, it’s still a good result for the PS. The PCF obtained an excellent result, better than its 1993 or 1997 results by far and only a bit below its 1988 level (16.1%). Can be explained by two things: the PCF candidate had excellent name recognition- he’s the mayor of Givors, the constituency’s largest city and the PCF always does relatively well in the constituency (provided they run a candidate, they didn’t in 2002 or 2007). The Greenies also got a good result, better than their 2007 result by 1.86%, but below their 12% record in 1993 (obviously). The FN actually lost votes, their voters not turning out well, and they lost 1.1% over their already dreadful June 2007 result. The MoDem, who won 9.6% in June lost 4.55% and is left behind the Greenies with 5.09%. They still hold the key to the runoff (more on that later).

In addition, due the excellent Prefecture of the Rhone, we have data by commune and a map is possible!

The pattern to be expected in a constituency like this one. The NC candidate, who is the general councillor for Saint-Symphorien did well in that area (which is generally the best area for any UMP candidate too) but less so in Mornant and Condrieu. The left won the belt between Condrieu and the north (where Givors is) and the PCF candidate broke 40% in his city of Givors (he’s the mayor) and took over 30% in a suburb. The same urban vs. rural trend seen in 2007 continues.

For the runoff now, you ask? Well, Durand (NC) has a small advantage, but it should be quite narrow (probably the 2002 results, in fact, 51-49 for Durand or something similar). The MoDem will probably be the key in this, assuming the left has a full turnout of all PCF, Green, PRG voters, which gives it around 48% and about 49% if the Trots turn out well (which they don’t, they’re an unreliable lot).

If you’re interested in the data by commune, the source is here. (needs PDF).

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