Mid-Pyrenees (PS +9)

Ariège: In the Radical-Socialist stronghold of Ariège, which was already quite left-wing before the elections, the situation changed very little. In Pamiers (northern city in the 2nd constituency, the most right-wing one), held by a UDF-MoDem incumbent, the left was unsuccessful in their attempts to gain; possibly because of vote splitting (a Greenie qualified for the runoff and maintained themselves). Trigano, the incumbent, narrowly squeaked by with a bit over 50%. In Foix, the department’s prefecture, the Socialist incumbent faced a tough battle, not against the right of course, but against the left! He was nonetheless re-elected, with 44.5% to 37.1% for a DVG list and 9.2% to a PCF list. The right got last and 9.1%. In the general council, only one seat changed hands- from PS to DVG. The Socialists hold 18 of 22 seats (+1 DVG), the right has a total of 3 (2 UMP, 1 DVD).

Aveyron: The only department that is not of Radical tradition and still strongly Catholic, the Aveyron is also the most right-wing department in the region. However, the left has been making important progress as of late, and continued this in the locals. In Millau, Jacques Godfrain was defeated, with the left taking 54% in the runoff to his mere 38.1% (a DVD list took an additional 7.9%) . In Rodez, the department’s main city, it was the same scenario. With the UMP incumbent Marc Censi stepping down and the right divided between two lists, the scene was perfect for the Socialist Christian Teyssedre, who won by the first round with 52.5%. In third, the UMP took 15.5%. The city has never had a Socialist mayor since the 1960s. Only in Villefrance-de-Rouergue, the right slipped back for another term by the first round with 51.5%. Two left-wing lists and a MoDem list took the rest. The general council stayed with the UMP, but with the long-time President (since 1976) Jean Puech being replaced. Total PS +2

Haute-Garonne: Voters in Toulouse voted to end an inconsistency. Despite voting strongly for the left in national elections (57.6% for Royal in the runoff), the right had held the city since 1971. Even in the left-wing landslide of 1977, the Socialist hadn’t won the city back. Well, they did in 2008, albeit narrowly. In the first round, the UMP incumbent Jean-Luc Moudenc pulled ahead with 42% to the Socialist Pierre Cohen’s 39%. The MoDem took a mere 5.9%, but enough to merge (with the UMP) and a Alternatifs (far-left, but not entirely Trot) list led by the former Socialist Francois Simon took 5.42% and the real Trot-list took 5.1%. However, Simon mobilized abstentionists and took 50.42% in the runoff, narrowly defeating Moudenc. The scenario was the same in Saint-Gaudens, the left gained the city with 51.8%; and the same in Muret, where the PS gained the city with 52.07%. The right narrowly held Castanet-Tolosan, a Toulouse suburb. Total PS +3

Gers: Another department generally strong for the left, the PS did relatively well. As expected, it held Auch with over 60% in the runoff and got lucky in Condom, where they defeated the UMP incumbent by 14 votes. Total PS +1

Lot: Another Radical stronghold, the left did extremely well in the locals. In Cahors, the 35-year old PS candidate defeated the UMP incumbent with a whooping 67.1%. In Gourdon, considered favourable for the right, the left took 59.5% against the UMP incumbent. With this, the re-election of the left in Figeac was a formality, and indeed it was. The PS incumbent won re-election by the first round with over 66% of the votes. Total PS +2

Hautes-Pyrenees:  Despite being very left-wing (and another Radical territory), the right in the Hautes-Pyrenees won the local elections. Threatened in Tarbes by the PS deputy and former minister Jean Glavany, the UMP held the city with 54%. In Lourdes, the former city of the centrist Philippe Douste-Blazy, the UMP held it narrowly, with 51%. On the cantonales scene, the Radicals lost the presidency to the PS, who now holds more cantons than the PRG. From 6 presidencies in 2001, the PRG now has a mere 2.

Tarn: A split department, with a Socialist north and a more conservative south, a general status-quo prevailed, with one exception. In Albi, although located in the north, the right won a new term, with 54% in the runoff. However, in Graulhet, the left defeated the right and won with 50.07% in a three-way runoff against 2 right-wing lists. In the two southern conservative cities of Castres and Mazamet, the right won, with 50.32% (+17.5% to a DVD) in Castres and 62.4% in Mazamet. Total PS +1

Tarn-et-Garonne: In the last truly Radical department of the region, with the Radical leadership assumed by the PRG leader and Senator Jean-Michel Baylet, the left was not able to win back its big 2001 loss- Montauban. In Montauban, Brigitte Bareges, elected in 2001 in a PS-RPR-FN runoff on a campaign based on security, she narrowly won a second term with 50.3%. In Moissac, the PS held the city with 54%. However, the left’s division in Castelsarrasin helped re-elect the MoDem Bernard Dagen, with 50.5%. Jean-Michel Baylet was re-elected, for his part, as the department’s head of government.

Next:Languedoc-Rousillon

Aquitaine (PS +2)

Dordogne: A complete political renewal, or almost, took place in Dordogne. Firstly, the most interesting result, the Education Minister, Xavier Darcos, was narrowly defeated by the Socialist Michel Moyrand in his re-election bid in Perigueux. Trailing by the first round (45.25 to 45.7 for Moyrand), despite the MoDem’s support, Darcos lost with 49.58 in the runoff. In Bergerac, the same thing happened- the DVD incumbent was defeated by a Socialist. The right, formerly controlling all 3 major cities, now controls one, Sarlat-la-Caneda. Total PS +2

Gironde: Despite being defeated in June 2007 (in a climate favourable to the right), Juppe was easily re-elected in Bordeaux, with the support of the MoDem, against the regional president Alain Rousset. He was re-elected by the first round, trouncing Rousset 56.62-34.14. The FN lost its only seat on the city council, not passing the 5% threshold (it took 2.6% and fourth). In the suburbs of Libourne (where the son of Mitterrand was re-elected), Merignac, and Pessac; all 3 PS-DVG incumbents were easily re-elected. The left, however, did not hold onto La-Teste, where the UMP gained the city. Total UMP +1

Landes: Despite a status-quo prediction by most, the results in the left-wing stronghold of the Landes was not status-quo, far from it. Dax, projected to remain in UMP hands, was lost to the PS. However, the PS lost Mont-de-Marsan to a MoDem list supported by the UMP. In the general council, Henri Emanuelli (PS) was re-elected, the left (PS-PCF) controls 26 of the department’s 30 seats!

Lot-et-Garonne: After conquering Agen and Villeneuve-sur-Lot in 2001, the Socialists were defeated in Agen by the NC deputy Jean-Dionis du Sejour, who took 52.25% in the runoff. In Villeneuve-sur-Lot however, the Socialists were given another term, with almost 60% in the runoff. The left also held Marmande by the first round. In the general council, the left was able to gain the control of the department with Pierre Camani becoming President. Total NC +1

Pyrenees-Atlantiques: The results in the Pyrenees-Atlantiques were a mixed bag for 3 parties. In Pau, the city where the MoDem leader and 2007 presidential candidate (winning 18.6%) Francois Bayrou had hoped to win, was defeated by a relatively unknown local Socialist leader. She also defeated the Gauche Moderne (ex-PS, supported by the UMP) incumbent, Yves Urieta, in office since the death of the Socialist ‘king’ of Pau, André Labarrère, in 2006. She took 39.76 to 38.81 to Bayrou, Urieta took only 21.42. However, if Urieta had stayed out of the runoff, Bayrou could have been elected. In Orthez, the PS defeated the incumbent with over 60% in the runoff. Same result, but closer in Oloron-Sainte-Marie, where the PS was able to gain with 50.92 in the runoff. On the right-wing cities along the coast, a status-quo more or less prevailed. In Bayonne, the DVD incumbent won in a three-way runoff against a PS candidate and another DVD. In Biarritz, the MoDem incumbent prevailed in a four-way runoff (MoDem, DVD, PS, DVG). In the city of the Interior Minister, Michele Alliot-Marie, she was of course easily re-elected with 55.6 in the first round. The Basque nationalists, though, took nearly 20% of the vote. Finally, in the only major left-wing city on the coast, Hendaye, the right was able to pull off an upset in a three-way with the Basque nationalists (who took nearly 10% in the runoff). The Basque nationalists, however, lost their only seat in the general council to the UMP. In the general council, led by the MoDem, the PS obtained a near-majority of seats, but when it came down to elect the President, a non-breakable tie happened and the UMP Jean Castaings was elected, being the oldest candidate. Total PS +2

Next: Midi

Limousin (PS +2)

Correze: Chiracquia has fallen. In Tulle, the first secretary of the PS, Francois Hollande was re-elected with over 72% by the first round (compared to only 51% in 2001). The pink tsunami in the department also made two other right-wing cities, Brive-la-Gaillarde and Ussel fall to the left. Ussel is in fact located in the 3rd constituency, the only remaining UMP constituency and Chirac’s stronghold. The tsunami also made the general council of Correze finally switch to the left. The most right-wing department in the Limousin is now left-wing. Total PS +2

Creuse: The re-election of the 3 major city Socialist mayors in the Creuse was a simple formality, the left took 73% in Gueret, 60% in La Souterraine, and “only” 59.75% in Aubusson. All this, of course, by the first round.

Haute-Vienne: In the Limousin’s most left-wing department, where division does not result in a right-wing gain, the left was of course easily re-elected in Limoges and Saint-Junien. Alain Rodet, the PS mayor of Limoges took 56% and the left took 73% in Saint-Junien. All this, of course, by the first round.

Auvergne (=)

Allier: Despite the general council switching to the left, the left didn’t do so good in the communes. In Montlucon, the UMP incumbent was barely re-elected with 50 some percent, with the PS far behind with 24% and the PCF with 21.6%. In Moulins, the UMP incumbent squeaked by, with 46% to 44.4% to the PS. However, there was a dissident DVD list. In Vichy, the UMP incumbent was re-elected with 51.2% in the runoff. The general council, however, gave the left a majority over the right. To compensate for them losing the Seine-Saint-Denis to the PS, the PS gave the Communists the presidency of the Allier department. The PCF had held the department until 2001.

Cantal: In the first constituency, less conservative and more urban than the second, the left, already holding Aurillac, was easily re-elected, with over 63% in the runoff. In the rural second constituency, the right was re-elected with 66% in Saint-Flour, a stronghold for the right.

Haute-Loire: In the stronghold of the catholic right, the right did well, better than in 2001 in fact. Despite the department being a stronghold for the right, Le-Puy-en-Velay is an exception. In 2001, the left gained Le-Puy-en-Velay to the general surprise. However, in 2008, the UMP, led by then-government spokesperson Laurent Wauquiez gained the city by the first round with around 56%. In Yssingeaux, the right-wing incumbent was re-elected with 69%. Total UMP +1

Puy-de-Dome: The bastion of Giscardie, the Puy-de-Dome is still the base of the Auvergne left. Indeed, in Issoire, the left benefited from the presence of two DVD lists to defeat, with a plurality, the incumbent DVD mayor. The total of the right, however, was larger than that of the left. In Riom, the PS took 53.64% by the first round, defeating the UMP and a MoDem at 20%. In Thiers, there was no right-wing list, leaving the battle between the DVG incumbent and the PS candidate. The DVG incumbent took 56%. In Clermont-Ferrand, where the far left is often over to 10% threshold, 2008 was no different. After Brice Hortefeux declined to run in Clermont for the UMP, the competitiveness of the city ended and Serge Godard (PS) was likely to win. He did win, in a four-way runoff. He took 51.7% in the runoff, compared to 22.34% for the UMP and a non-negligible 15.34% for the far-left. The MoDem took 10.6%. In Chamalieres, Giscard’s city now held by his son, his son was re-elected with 57%. Total PS +1

Basse-Normandie (PS +2)

Calvados: After the defeat of the two incumbent UMP/NC deputies last June in Caen, the right was in a comfortable position to take Caen from the hands of Brigitte Le Brethon, the UMP incumbent. The right and before that the centrists had ruled Caen since 1959. However, the pink wave of 2008 benefited the left, which won 56.3% in the runoff, largely defeating the incumbent. In the more conservatives cities of Vire, Bayeux, and Lisieux, right-wing incumbents were easily defeated, despite the fact that Vire and Bayeux were starting to trend towards the left. Total PS +1

Manche: The Manche confirmed its friendliness to incumbents again in 2008, giving the right another term in St-Lo, despite many saying that the right was about to lose it. In the working-class region of Cherbourg-Octeville, the PS incumbent was, of course, easily re-elected. The constituency of Cherbourg-Octeville, the 5th constituency, is in fact the only constituency in the right-wing department to have elected Socialist deputies.

Orne: Despite still being largely dominated by the right in the general council, the Orne’s 2 largest municipalities are now Socialist. The PS successfully held Argentan, with over 60% and the PS gained Alencon by the first round, largely defeating the UMP incumbent. In Flers, the race was not stressful for the DVG incumbent, who won no less than 100%. Total PS +1

Haute-Normandie (PS-PCF-DVG +3)

Eure: The left-wing wave in Seine-Maritime (see below) also spilled into Eure and its prefecture of Evreux. Evreux, formerly held by the UMP Jean-Louis Debre (now president of the Constitutional Council), decided to dump his UMP successor, Jean-Pierre Nicolas in favour of a new DVG mayor, Michel Champredon. Elsewhere, however, no notable change took place, with the right holding onto Bernay and Vernon and the left holding onto Louviers and Val-de-Reuil. Total DVG +1

Seine-Maritime: The left wave really stands out in Seine-Maritime. The largest result for the left was in Rouen, where the PS candidate defeated, by the first round, the centrist-UDF incumbent Pierre Albertini. Rouen, had elected centrist mayors since 1945 (except for one PS between 1995 and 2001), the most notable of whom was Jean Lecanuet. In Dieppe, despite the fact that the CNIP incumbent was not standing again, the left, led by a young Communist, won by the first round. In Le Havre, however, the PCF failed to win this other communist area from the hands of the UMP Antoine Rufenacht. After merging lists with the PS, the PCF candidate and deputy Daniel Paul lost, with the UMP taking about 54.7%. In two other cities held by the left, such as Elbeuf and Fecamp, the left largely won. Total PS +1 PCF +1

Next: Limousin, Auvergne

Centre (PS-PCF +2)

Cher: The results in the Cher were not that surprising taken as a whole. The Radical-UMP mayor of Bourges, Serge Lepeltier, was re-elected to his office by the first round, defeating a PS and far-left list. The west of the Cher, meaning the 2nd constituency, is still a Communist “stronghold”, still held by the PCF in the National Assembly. It confirmed its alliegance to the PCF by largely dumping the DVD mayor in Vierzon in favour of a Communist. This all happened by the first round, with Sansu (PCF) defeating the DVD incumbent with over 57.6% of the votes. In the rural southern conservative city of Saint-Amand-Montrond, the right kept its hand on the city, easily, defeating the MoDem and PS in the runoff. The right, which had hopes to win the department back, failed to do so. Total PCF +1

Eure-et-Loir: To the general surprise, stability prevailed in the major cities of Eure-et-Loir. The most surprising result was the UMP mayor Jean-Pierre Gorges holding Chartres, even more surprising considering that a month before that, the Socialists had won his seat in a by-election. In fact, the race was a re-match between the same candidates (the UMP, PS, and MoDem list leaders had all stood in the by-election). Gorges was re-elected, when polls gave him defeated and pundits had signed off Chartres as an easy PS gain. Also noteworthy is the MoDem collapse in Chartres, falling to just 13.7% compared to over 18% in the by-election and June general election. Stability also prevailed elsewhere, the left held Nogent-le-Rotrou and the right held Dreux (a former FN stronghold under the Stirbois family inc.). In Chateaudun, a UMP dissident defeated the UMP mayor. For an unrelated lighter note, the UMP president of the general council, Albéric de Montgolfier is related to the Mongolfier brothers…

Indre: The largest city of the Indre department, Chateauroux, in PS hands until 2001, failed to switch to the left and the UMP incumbent was re-elected with 50.23% by the first round. The left held Le Blanc and Issoudun, the department’s left-wing bastion.

Indre-et-Loire: On the municipal level, the left, already controlling the two major cities of Tours and Amboise, held both of them easily. In Tours, the former stronghold of the christian conservative Jean Royer (until 1995, type Jean Royer on ina.fr for fun) the Socialist Jean Germain defeated the UMP sacrificial lamb, former Minister of Culture Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres (already defeated in June 2007). The MPF candidate and the rising star of the party, Guillaume Peltier won 8% in the city and won 21% in the canton of Tours-Val de Cher. The left also held Amboise with 58.9%, despite it having given Sarkozy 55% in May 2007. On the cantonales scene, the left gained the general council for the first time ever. The right had controlled the department since… 1958.

Loir-et-Cher: The left scored an important victory in the department, taking the prefecture of Blois from the NC incumbent. In addition, they held Vendome narrowly against a right which had hoped to cancel out Blois with a gain in Vendome. In the leftist city of Romorantin-Lanthenay, the PS incumbent was re-elected with about 63% by the first round. Total PS +1

Loiret: Serge Grouard, the UMP incumbent, held Orleans narrowly, with 51.37%. In Montargis and Gien, the two other cities of the department, the right easily won, as expected, but with the independent PCF lists doing well, with over 20% in Montargis and 14.6% in Gien.

Next: Normandie

Bretagne (UMP&DVD +4)

Ille-et-Vilaine: The result in Ille-et-Vilaine was status quo, as it had been expected to some extent. Daniel Delaveau, Edmond Herve’s chosen successor, was easily elected in the socialist city of Rennes in a three-way runoff against the UMP and the MoDem. In fact Delaveau increased his mentor’s 2001 score. In Saint-Malo, the UMP incumbent was re-elected in a three-way runoff with the MoDem. In Vitre, the long time stronghold of Pierre Mehaignerie, the figure of the UDF and later UMP in the department, Mehaignerie was re-elected by the first round with 62.4%. The race in Fougères could have been interesting if Thierry Benoit, the centrist MP for the Fougères constituency, had thrown his hat into the race. That was not to be, and the Socialist incumbent was re-elected with over 60%. Redon, which is slowly trending Socialist, was a Socialist target, but the DVD incumbent was re-elected. In Dinard, the most solid right-wing city in the department, the right took the leisure of going into the election divided (as they do in everyone of their strongholds) between 2 DVD lists. The DVD list led by the incumbent mayor was re-elected with 47.28 against 43.69 for the other DVD candidate. However, the canton of Dinard flipped to the Left Radicals in the cantonales elections!

Cotes d’Armor: In the left-wing bastion that is Cotes d’Armor, the left has reason to be deceived. In Saint-Brieuc, a Socialist stronghold gained by the UDF in 2001 and now held by the MoDem, the MoDem incumbent, supported by the UMP, was re-elected, and even increased his score over 2001, winning 54.3% agaist 51.7% in 2001. In Dinan, another Socialist target, the right was re-elected. Unsurprisingly, the left sweeped re-election in Lannion and Guingamp while the right was re-elected in Loudeac, the department’s most right-wing city.

Morbihan: As in Ille-et-Vilaine, the status-quo prevailed in the right-leaning Morbihan. The UMP incumbent, a notable anti-Sarkozy, was re-elected in Vannes with 51.6 and the Socialists won by the first round, as expected, in Lorient with 64%. The left also held Auray, a right-wing target, and Pontivy.

Finistere: The left’s only major gain regionwide was in Quimper, Finistere where the MEP Bernard Poignant and mayor of the city from 1998 to 2001 retrieved his seat, lost to the right in 2001, in a three-way runoff against the UMP and the MoDem. The UMP incumbent was not standing for re-election. In Brest, the PS incumbent was re-elected with over 60%. However, the rest of the department was extremely favourable to the right! Right-wing candidates defeated left-wing incumbents in Morlaix, Landerneau, Douarnenez, Quimperle, and Concarneau; all cities which vote for the left in other elections. Total UMP&DVD +4.

Loire-Atlantique: Another department that ended up entirely status-quo. Ayrault was easily re-elected in Nantes with 55.7% by the first round, like in 2001. In Saint-Nazaire, the Socialist incumbent needed to wait until the runoff to be elected, but his seat was never in jeopardy anyways. The right held on successfully to its strongholds in La Baule-Escoublac and Guerande, and squeaked through in Orvault.

Pays de la Loire (=)

Vendee: Guess what happened here? Status-quo! The left swept through in La Roche-sur-Yon by the first round and held Fontenay-le-Comte by a whisker. The right had hoped to win Fontenay-le-Comte, but they did what they’re best at: run divided in the runoff and lose! The right did hold Les Herbiers, Challans, and Les Sables-d’Olonne. Philippe de Villiers, the MPF leader and the Führer of Vendee since 1988 was given another term in office.

Maine-et-Loire: The right had hoped to win Angers, and the UMP candidate did come first in the first round. However, with good vote reserves from the far-left and the PCF, the Socialist incumbent squeaked back into office by a whisker. In the southwest the UMP held Cholet by the first round and gained Saumur from the Greenies. Total UMP +1

Mayenne: In Mayenne, the left gained Laval, a city it had lost in 1995 to the right,  by the first round. The left was easily returned in Mayenne (city, not department!) and the right was easily re-elected in Château-Gontier. The MoDem president of the department Jean Arthuis was re-elected. Total PS +1

Sarthe: Guess what happened here? Status-quo! As expected, the Socialists easily held onto Le Mans by the first round and the PS incumbent in La Flèche. The right, on its side, held on to Sable-sur-Sarthe very easily and as expected. I don’t go off into small villages, but in the village of Solesmes the Prime Minister, Francois Fillon, held onto his seat in the city council.

Poitou-Charentes (PS +3)

Charente-Maritime: The only gain in the major cities of Charente-Maritime was the PS victory in Saintes. The PS mayor Maxime Bono held La Rochelle by the first, as expected, and retained Rochefort 52-48 in the runoff. The right, on its side, held Royan. In the general council, the UMP majority was returned, but the department is now led by the former UMP minister of Transports Dominique Bussereau. Total PS +1

Charente: The Charente department confirmed its alliegance to the left by dumping two right-wing incumbents in Angoulême (the department’s prefecture) and Cognac while retaining the PS majority in the general council. Total PS +2

Deux-Sevres: The home department of Segolene Royal, the PS leader of the region, continued trending to the left. In Niort, the department’s main city, the left was returned (but the incumbent himself was defeated in favour of another Socialist) very easily. The left also gained Thouars, located in the north of the department while the right held onto its cities of Bressuire and Parthenay. The department swinged to the left, with the Socialists ending the right-wing domination of the department in effect since the 1970s. Total PS +1

Vienne: In Poitiers, the Socialist incumbent was returned by the first round. In Loudun, the right held the city, despite the incumbent retiring. The New Centre gained Châtellerault, the department’s second largest city, with the election of NC deputy Jean-Pierre Abelin. Total NC +1

Next: Centre, Normandie

PS: It is incontestable that there was a sharp swing to the left, specifically the Socialists, in the first round. The PS gained Rouen and Laval by the first round, Delanoe won over 40% in Paris, Collomb was re-elected in Lyon by the first round, and the PS is threateningly close to the UMP in Marseille. In Strasbourg, Caen, Amiens, Reims, Colombes and other cities, the PS came first, beating the UMP or centrist incumbent. Finally, in Toulouse, the left seems to have the upper hand in the runoff against the UMP incumbent. Also, numerous Socialist mayors were re-elected by the first round, such as Francois Hollande who took 72.25% in Tulle.

UMP: While some predicted a 1977-like rout for the majority, the right resisted generally well. Unexpectedly, they came first in Angers against the PS incumbent and first in Toulouse (where polls predicted a second-place finish). While they did horribly in Lyon and badly in Paris, in smaller cities the right resisted well against a pink wave. In fact, Laurent Wauquiez gained Le Puy-en-Velay in Haute-Loire from the PS and Luc Chatel did likewise in Chaumont, Haute-Loire. The UMP also has a chance to pick up cities like Calais, Saumur, or Belfort. Internal divisions prevented the UMP from first round victories in cities like Nice, Boulogne-Billancourt, Versailles, or Neuilly.

MoDem: The results of the MoDem are a mixed bag. While they did well in cities like Rennes, Quimper, Arras, Saint-Etienne, Saint-Brieuc, or Paris the MoDem came second in its leader’s hometown, Pau and got mediocre results in Lyon, Marseille, Strasbourg, Nice, or Toulouse. In Paris the MoDem can maintain itself in only 3 runoffs (5, 7, 14). Incumbent MoDem mayors did well, Vanlerenberghe was re-elected with over 55%, even though some had predicted his defeat. In Saint-Brieuc, the capital of the Cotes-d’Armor and a very left-wing city, Bruno Joncour took with 44.7% and improved his score over 2001!

Communist Party: The Communists resisted, in most cases, formidably well to both its perennial decline and PS-prompted primaries. In the “9-3 primaries” where PCF mayor also faced PS candidates, the Communists resisted well and are favoured, in most cases, to hold the towns in the runoffs. In La Courneuve, the Communist mayor led the Socialists by about 10%; in Saint-Denis or Bagnolet it led by 20%. It was closer in Aubervilliers where the runoff is between the PCF-PS-MoDem-UMP. The Communists, with their 36-year old candidate, Sébastien Jumel, gained Diepp, a city lost in 2001. The Communists also gained Vierzon. However, the Communists are also facing difficulties, in cities like Calais, or in the general council of Seine-Saint-Denis, where the Socialist Claude Bartolone is poised to replace the Communist leadership of the department.

Greens: The Greens, which were counting on the elections to revive their chances did OK. While they saw their vote in Paris halved compared to their 12% in 2001; the party got 19% in Valence, 11.6% in Lille, 11.1% in Montpellier, and 16.8% in Quimper. In most of these cases, or all of these cases, the Greens are likely to merge with the Socialist list as they already did in Paris. In Saumur, however, where the Green mayor was re-elected by the first round in 2001, the right has a definite chance at a pickup.

FN: After a disastrous year in 2007, March 2008 was not much better for the FN. His daughter was far behind the unpopular PS incumbent in Henin-Beaumont and the party did horribly in its former strongholds (such as Nice, where they got only 4.2%). The FN score rose a bit in Marseille, where it is qualified for the runoff in the Marseille-7 sector against the UMP and the PS. In Toulon, a city in FN/MNR hands until 2001, the FN candidate polled 6.55%; in Megret’s Vitrolles, the FN was eliminated with its 9.74%. In some regions, the FN did not even run candidates, such as in Brittany. It was eligible for 40 runoffs in cities with 30,000+ population in 2001, the FN is eligible for only 7 in 2008. The FN is in the runoff in Calais (where it may merge with the UMP to defeat the PCF), Mulhouse (against Bockel and the PS), and Perpignan (a four-way runoff, UMP-PS-DVG-FN).

Reims: Firstly, I am retracting my Safe UMP prediction for Reims. Over the past few weeks, the race there changed a lot, to the point where the Socialists are favoured to win! The UMP and the DVD-MoDem candidate would be tied with 26% each and 10% behind the Socialists. The left, according to the same poll, would win in 3 runoff scenarios- with 42% in a three-way runoff (PS, UMP, DVD); with 54% against the UMP; and with 51% against the DVD-MD candidate. I am skeptic about polls, and I am not changing my prediction to lean PS. I will keep it as tossup and will make a call on March 10th.

Marseille: The left has taken a boost in polls these past few days; Guerini (PS) took the lead with in a TNS-Sofres first round poll, with the FN a strong third at 9%. The poll’s credibility is destroyed by the fact they did a runoff poll. Any pollster doing a runoff poll in PLM deserve that have their polls trashed (good pollsters like Ipsos don’t do runoff polling in PLM). Back to the situation. The winner in France’s third largest city will be decided by the 3rd sector currently held by a UMP incumbent. Guerini himself is the PS leader in the 3rd sector. Renaud Muselier leads the UMP list. As said before, I now have serious issues with TNS-Sofres, but they did a poll with the PS leading the first round 40-37.5 and tied 50-50 in the runoff. Local sector runoff polls make a little more sense, but I remain very skeptic as to TNS-Sofres now.

If the PS wins the sector, they will control 4 sectors, as will the UMP, not counting any other UMP or PS gains (which are unlikely).

The prediction for Marseille is now tossup.

A bit of history now with a look at the results in the locals since 1945.

29 April and 13 May 1945: As voters went to the polls in the first round, France was still at war, Germany surrendered on May 7. For the first time ever in France, women were allowed to vote, resulting in 50% more voters than pre-war. In the first round, the Communists are favoured, while the radicals and moderates were trounced. The christian democrats of the MRP realized an unexpected breakthrough. In the runoff however, the MRP collapsed while the moderates, radicals, SFIO, and PCF were able to win numerous cities.

19 and 26 October 1947: The election of 1947 was the first local election held under the 4th Republic. While the MRP was severely defeated, the Gaullist RPF realized excellent results (winning Bordeaux, Rennes, Strasbourg, Paris etc). The Communists, who had been excluded from the government in the spring, were isolated in working-class cities primarily.

26 April and 3 May 1953: After the very favourable 1947 election, but a less favourable time in the National Assembly, the RPF collapsed to 10%, but the centre and the CNIP limited the right’s defeat. The Communists lost over 10%.

8 and 15 March 1959: After coming to power in 1958 under the 5th Republic, the 1959 locals were the first municipal elections under the new republic. After exceptional scores in 1958, the Gaullist UDR realized mediocre scores. The MRP, radicals, SFIO, and Communists held their positions.

14 and 21 March 1965: Like in 1959, the UDR realized deceiving results (although they did moderately gain). The Communists gained, but they also came out of their isolation and started co-operating with other parties of the parliamentary left.

14 and 21 March 1971: Georges Pompidou had been in power since 1969 by 1971. The UDR gained in the radical south-west while the PCF gained in the north and east. On the left, the socialists, although still administering numerous cities with the “moderates”, the strategy of unions with the PCF developed, marked mostly by the withdrawal of candidates in runoff to profit one party.

13 and 20 March 1977: By 1977, Valery Giscard d’Estaing had been in power since 1974. The Communists and PS, united under a “government program” swept the elections. Out of 221 cities with over 30,000 inhabitants, the left won 155. The Socialists gained Rennes, Angers, Brest, Nantes, Villeurbanne, Pau, and Cannes. The Communists gained Le Mans, Reims, and Saint-Etienne. For the first time, green parties realized their first breakthroughs.

For the first time since 1789, elections were held to the mayorship of Paris. The former Prime Minister and RPR candidate Jacques Chirac was elected, defeating notably the Giscardian Michel d’Ornano.

6 and 13 March 1983: The left, in power since only two years, was defeated in the 1983 locals by the RPR-UDF. The Communists lost Saint-Etienne and Reims, while the PS lost Tourcoing, Grenoble, and Roubaix. They narrowly held Marseille (with Gaston Defferre) against Jean-Claude Gaudin (UDF). In Paris, Chirac was easily re-elected, sweeping all arrondissements.

12 and 19 March 1989: After the 1983 disaster, the left did relatively good in 1989. They gained Nantes, Strasbourg, Brest, Orleans, Mulhouse, Avignon, Chambery, and Blois while losing Amiens, Saint-Malo, and Laon. The Communists continued their decline. Chirac repeated his 1983 sweep in Paris, but the PS did the same in Marseille. The FN won their first city, Saint-Gilles in the Gard. The Greens and ecologists did well, winning over 600 seats and around 15 cities.

11 and 18 June 1995: Held only a month after Chirac’s election as President, the 1995 locals presented contrasted results for both parties. The right gained Marseille, Le Havre (a Communist stronghold), Laval, and held Paris and Lyon. The PS, however, gained in both Paris and Lyon and took back Grenoble, and Tours. The Communists re-took Nimes. The far-right did well, with the FN winning in Toulon, Orange, and Marignane.

11 and 18 March 2001: The 2001 elections were generally favourable for the right, who was now in the parliamentary opposition. However, the right’s division in Paris and Lyon led to the PS gaining those two cities. They did, however, take Strasbourg, Aix-en-Provence, Argenteuil (a PCF stronghold since 1934), Blois (Jack Lang defeated), Chartres, Drancy (a PCF stronghold since 1935), Nimes, Orleans, and Saint-Brieuc. The left gained Ajaccio (from the bonapartists of Charles Napoleon), Dijon, and Tulle. The Greens did well, winning 16% in Besancon and winning Saumur by the first round. The far-right, divided between FN and MNR lost Toulon but held Orange, Vitrolles, and Marignane. By 2008, however, none of these three cities are still held by the FN or MNR.

Now for some detailed city analysis of 2008. Please note in the cases of races that are more primaries than actual elections, no prediction of the “primary” result is made.

Aix-en-Provence (UMP): The right won this city from the PS in 2001. The incumbent, Marysse Joissains has seen her base divided, with two of her deputies supporting the MoDem list. The left, however is also divided between two candidates. The city, however, voted at 57% for Sarkozy in May 2007. Tossup

Amiens (New Centre): Gilles de Robien, former UDF Minister of Education and former MP remains mayor of Amiens, with very high favorables. While the city barely re-elected its NC deputy (as well as Gremetz, a Communist) in June, it voted for Royal in May 2007. The left is, after all, united; Maxime Gremetz having finally declined interest in running. A poll mentioned in this blog earlier showed Robien with a wide lead. While things have most certainly changed, such as the entry of the MoDem into the race, Robien certainly has an advantage. Lean NC-PSLE

Angers (PS): The right has its eyes on this city, which has been Socialist since 1977. Antonini, the PS mayor faces Christophe Béchu, who has received the support of two of the mayor’s deputies and a part of the MoDem. In addition, the left is divided, with the PCF forming a list with the far-left. Lean PS

Argenteuil (UMP): Argenteuil, city of former Communist leader Robert Hue and in the hands of the right since 2001, is one of the cities the left wants to reconquer. The Socialists, however, are split between 2 candidates (one receiving PCF and LO support, the other receiving Green, Radical, and PT support). The right will try to exploit the lefts’ division to hold this city, which voted for Royal in both rounds of the 2007 election. Tossup

Besancon (PS): The left has maintained its control over the capital of the Doubs since 1953, and the right hopes to end that. However, once again, the right is split, with the UMP divided between its official candidates and the former president of Franche-Comte. Lean PS

Bordeaux (UMP): Alain Juppé, former Prime Minister and defeated for re-election in 2007, is running for re-election in Bordeaux. The Socialist candidate, the regional president Alain Rousset hopes to repeat the victory of Royal in the city in 2007. Juppé, however, has the support of Bayrou’s MoDem, leaving the race. Both have high favorables, although Juppé’s is a bit higher. A poll by TNS-Sofres in January showed him leading 52-39. Safe UMP

Boulogne-Billancourt (UMP): As is common in other safe UMP cities, this race is more of UMP primary election between the official candidate (an ex-UDF) and the mayor until 2007 (who resigned in favour of his protegé, who declined to run against the official candidate). The former mayor has the support of the right-wing majority in this city, where Sarkozy took 66%. I do not predict party primaries, so. Safe UMP

Brest (PS): The incumbent Socialist mayor of a safe Socialist city has received the support of the united left (PCF, UDB, Greens etc.) against a divided right. In 2007, Royal easily won, with 56%. Safe PS

Caen (UMP): Defeated in June 2007, Brigitte Le Brethon (by regional president Philippe Duron), faces the same competitor in March. Caen, traditionally right-wing, voted for Royal with 55.6% in May 2007. Tossup

Clermont-Ferrand (PS): This race could have been heated between the incumbent Serge Godard and Immigration Minister Brice Hortefeux, but Hortefeux finally declined to run (looking instead to run in the 2010 regionals). The left is united, as is the right. Safe PS

Dijon (PS): A look at 2007 results would hint at the competitiveness of the race (Sarkozy won with 52%), but the Socialist Rebsamen (who has MoDem support) is very safe. A poll by TNS-Sofres indicated that he led 56-35 and that he had a 72% favorable rating. Safe PS

Grenoble (PS): The Socialist incumbent Michel Destot is safe in Grenoble against the leader of the “young UMP” Fabien de Sans Nicolas. Destot would dominate in a runoff against the right 60-40, with a good transfer of votes from a Green list (credited of 12% support). Safe PS

Le Havre (UMP): Le Havre is bizarre- in 2007, the Communists actually gained a seat in the city when nationwide they lost seats. The left, however, is divided, with no union between the PCF and the Socialists, both of which are running independent lists. Daniel Paul, a Communist deputy could narrowly defeat the Socialist list (which, however, would still have enough votes to maintain itself in a runoff) in the first round. The total of 3 left-wing candidates in the first round would be 44%, to 47% for the UMP incumbent Antoine Rufenacht. In a runoff, Paul is tied with Rufenacht but Rufenacht would defeat the Socialist list. Le Havre could very well fall to the Communists in 2008. Tossup

Le Mans (PS): In this city, in the hands of the left since 1977, the Socialist incumbent Jean-Claude Boulard faces the UMP councillor Veronique Rivron. The MoDem has been joined by the Left Radicals, traditional allies of the Socialists. Boulard is safe in a city where Royal scored 56% in the runoff. Safe PS

Lille (PS): Martine Aubry, first elected in 2001 but defeated in the 2002 legislative elections is hoping to be re-elected easily. While she personally is safe, the right could potentially pick up neighboring cities (such as Turcoing) which would tip the “greater Lille” to the right. Safe PS

Lyon (PS): The division of the right in 2001 (between the Millonists and Michel Mercier, UDF) led to the left’s capture of the capital of Gaul and the “capital of the UDF” with Gerard Collomb (PS). The UMP candidate, Dominique Perben hopes to regain this “accidental loss”, but he faces a very popular mayor (when he himself has low favorable ratings). While Perben has been able to rally a part of the MoDem (with pressure from Michel Mercier) and the Millonists, his electorate is weaker. The transfer of votes from the “official” MoDem list would benefit Collomb 53-42. There is a realistic chance, that if the MoDem is weak (divisions are very apparent), Collomb could win over 50% of votes cast citywide. Safe PS

Marseille (UMP): The UMP incumbent, Jean-Claude Gaudin hopes to win a third term against a left that is united, for the first time since Gaston Defferre’s death. The race will be a tight one, but with relatively high favorable ratings, Gaudin has a narrow advantage in both rounds. Lean UMP

Metz (DVD): While the city of Metz is right-wing country, with the UMP controlling 3 of the 3 seats in the National Assembly, the municipal election is more of a right-wing primary between Jean-Marie Rausch, the 78 year old Divers Droite incumbent and the UMP candidate, Marie-Jo Zimmerman. Rausch has opened his list to a defeated Socialist primary candidate, but his former deputy, the MEP Nathalie Griesbeck leads the centrist MoDem. Lean DVD

Montpellier (PS): The Socialist incumbent, H. Mandroux is faced by a confident right, based on the scores obtained by Sarkozy in 2007 in the city. However, Mandroux remains popular and has Communist support. While the Greens are running an independent list, they will likely fusion with the incumbent’s list. Lean PS

Montreuil (CAP/PCF): The race in Montreuil is a left-wing primary, without the Socialists. The CAP (party close to the Communists) mayor Jean-Pierre Brard faces Dominique Voynet, Green candidate in 2007 and local Senator. The Socialist has renewed its support to Brard, but local Socialists have also rallied the Green candidacy. Lean CAP/PCF

Mulhouse (GM): The former Socialist and Secretary of State for Co-operation and Francophonie Jean-Marie Bockel is running for re-election… as a “Modern Left” candidate supported by the UMP. He is faced by an “official” Socialist candidate, who represents a local party divided by Bockel’s floor crossing but decries Bockel’s “traitorious” move. Bockel hopes that his support by most of the UMP will result in his re-election in this very right-wing Alsatian city. Safe GM

Nancy (PR/UMP): The right Radical A. Rossinot, re-elected since 1983, hopes to win a fifth term. However, the left is confident based on the left’s good scores in 2007. The MoDem too is confident, with Francoise Herve, who had obtained 17% in 2001. Lean Radical

Nantes (PS): The leader of the Socialist group, Jean-Marc Ayrault is running for a fourth term, with the support of the Greens, PCF, Radicals, and the UDB. Nantes, which voted for Royal in 2007, is a traditionally left-wing city. The UMP candidate, Sophie Jozan, has, however, obtained the support of one of Ayrault’s deputy. As for the MoDem, it counts on the 21% that voted for Bayrou in April 2007. Safe PS

Nice (UMP): The battle in Nice, a right-wing stronghold, is another right-wing primary. The UMP candidate, Christian Estrosi must face the unhappy ex-FN incumbent, Jacques Peyrat, who leads a dissident list. The left is also divided between an official PS candidate and its 2001 candidate, both of which are running. In a poll by TNS-Sofres, Estrosi had 51% by the first round, compared to 18% for the PS and 14% for Peyrat. He would also defeat the Socialist and Peyrat in a three-way runoff (57-28-15) and would trounce the Socialists 70-30 in a two-way runoff. Safe UMP

Nimes (UMP): Although his term has been marked by scandals, Jean-Paul Fournier (UMP) remains popular in this former Communist city. The right, however seems safe. Sarkozy and the UMP dominated the city in the 2007 election. The left is divided between Alain Clary, the former PCF mayor, a Socialist list, a Green list, and a LCR list. Fournier would defeat Clary 57 to 43 in a runoff and would defeat the Socialist candidate 60 to 40. Safe UMP

Orleans (UMP): This UMP pickup in 2001 is vulnerable to the left, who is running united under the former PS mayor and Senator. The MoDem supports the incumbent, Serge Grouard. While the UMP swept the department in 2007, UMP and PS candidates were neck-to-neck in the city, which voted for Sarkozy (51%). Lean UMP

Paris (PS): The left, under Bertrand Delanoë, picked up the capital from a divided right in 2001. As in Lyon, the right is hoping to compensate for the “accidental loss” of the city in 2001. The UMP candidate, Françoise de Panafieu has been able to rally (for the most part) the Parisian right, used to division. The MoDem, led by MEP Marielle de Sarnez hopes to repeat the party’s good scores (especially in de Sarnez’s arrondissement, 18.5% in June) and act as kingmaker between the two rounds. The Greens are running an independent list, as they did with great success in 2001; however it is likely they will fusion with Delanoë’s lists, as in 2001. The Socialist success in the city in June (such as the pickup of the 12^th arrondissement’s constituency) makes the left optimist, but Panafieu counts on the support of the right and of certain MoDems (such as Jean-Marie Cavada). However, Delanoë is highly popular in the city and the left seems in a good position to keep the city. Safe PS

Perpignan (UMP): Jean-Paul Alduy is leading the UMP in a traditionally right-wing city, that also has a strong FN presence. The left enters divided between two candidates, a PS-PCF list and a DVG list. According to an IFOP poll, Alduy has a large lead in the first round, 44-21 over the Socialist. The FN candidate, Louis Alliot would have enough support (13%) to remain in the runoff, as would the DVG candidate (11%). In a four-way runoff, Alduy would win 52-24, with 13% for the FN and 11% for the DVG. Alduy would also win 54-31-15 in a three-way runoff with the FN. Safe UMP

Reims (DVD): With the incumbent stepping down, the UMP must hold this city for the right in another primary battle. Renaud Dutreuil, former Minister and a deputy from Reims is the official UMP candidate, facing another Reims deputy and former Minister, Catherine Vautrin. In this right-wing city, the Socialists have little chance at picking up the city. Safe UMP

Rennes (PS): Edmond Hervé, mayor of the capital of the Bretagne region since 1977, is retiring in favour of Daniel Delaveau, mayor of neighboring Saint-Jacques-de-la-Lande. This city, where Royal obtained 63% in the runoff in 2007, is a solid left-wing city. However, the UMP hopes to gain votes with Karim Boudjema, an independent supported by the UMP. Boudjema calls himself a “half-Sarkozyste”. The MoDem candidate hopes to win back some of Bayrou’s 22% in the city in April. Safe PS

Rouen (UDF): Pierre Albertini, an independent centrist supported by the UMP, MoDem, and NC is extremely vulnerable in a left trending city, especially with mediocre favorable ratings. With the deputy Valérie Fourneyron, the united left hopes to gain this city. According to a TNS-Sofres poll, the left seems quite sure of picking up Rouen, dominating 54-41 by the first round. Safe PS

Saint-Etienne (UMP): Michel Thollière, UMP mayor since 1995 is faced with two strong candidates, Gilles Artigues (MoDem) and Maurice Vincent (PS-united left). Royal won the city on both rounds in 2007 and the Socialist hopes are high. Tossup

Strasbourg (UMP): Strasbourg, in Socialist hands until 2001, is the still the most left-wing city in very conservative Alsace. Fabienne Keller, the UMP incumbent must defeat the former Socialist mayor Roland Ries (from 1997 to 2000), who is in a relatively good position, the Socialists having won 50.9% in the city in June. The Greens are also running an independent list. The MoDem list has received the support of the former Green (now suspended) Yann Wehrling. Two polls showed Ries either narrowly leading or the race tied. Tossup

Toulon (UMP): The UMP under Hubert Falco picked up the right-wing bastion of Toulon from the far-right MNR incumbent Jean-Marie Le Chevallier in 2001. The department’s deputies are all UMP, but the FN remains relatively strong. Safe UMP

Toulouse (app. UMP): Jean-Luc Moudenc, the UMP mayor of Toulouse faces a tough battle in a city which gave Royal 57% of the vote and elected only Socialist deputies (Moudenc himself was defeated in June 2007). However, Moudenc is popular (more so than his predecessor, Philippe Douste-Blazy). While polls indicate a narrow lead for Moudenc in the first round (mainly due to the presence of a anti-liberal list led by a Socialist), the runoff is very tight. The latest poll shows him defeated 52-48 in the runoff. Tossup

Tours (PS): The left is confident of its chances to give Jean Germain a third term. As in 2001, he will face former Culture Minister Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres, who must deal with a divided right. Guillaume Peltier, young deputy of the MPF, who had obtained almost 6% in the June legislative elections, is also running. Safe PS

Villeurbanne (PS): The right is confident of its chances to pickup the Lyon suburb of Villeurbanne from the Socialist incumbent. Royal narrowly won the city, with only 50.9%. Henry Chabert, former deputy of the ex-mayor of Lyon Michel Noir, is leading a tough campaign against the PS incumbent. Lean PS