Around three polls have come out for the EU elections, including one public release (IFOP for ParisMatch), as well as other polls that have not been officially published.

It remains a bit early for these polls to have any real value, and neither the lists are finalized nor are we even close to the elections. In fact, around 55% say their voting intentions are not set in stone.

• The UMP is at around 22-25% according to those polls; with the PS trailing with around 20%.
• The MoDem seems to be maintaining itself at the UDF’s 2004 levels (12%). It is at around 12-13%, and that number goes up to 14.5% in the absence of NC lists (it seems unlikely that the NC wishes to commit political suicide by running a list- it’s polling around 2-3%. The NC will likely get spots on UMP lists).
• The far-left (Besancenot’s new NPA and Laguiller’s LO) seems to be in prime position to win its best EU election results ever (its previous best was in 1999, 5.2% a common LO-LCR list) and also a result similar to 2002. The NPA would be at an historic 8-10%, while the LO is also performing decently (considering how bad they have polled in past elections) with around 3-4%. The combined far-left could very well break 10%, possibly even 13%.
• The new ecologist union around Cohn-Bendit (Greenies and so forth) is polling around 11-10% (around their best results in EU elections, 1989 and 1999).
• The FN is also polling decently and is above 5%, with around 6-7%. It would still represent a drop since 2004, where it won nearly 10%. However, the presence of FN dissident lists (led by the faction that hates Marine Le Pen) in a few regions, including the Nord-Ouest could hurt the FN by splitting the far-right vote and preventing one or another to win a seat (5% threshold).
• The MPF’s numbers seem to be fluctuating from poll to poll. Some polls have them as low as 3% (they won 6.8% in 2004), while others have them as high as 8%. It seems to have trouble polling over 5%, with an average of 4-5%. However, it still trounces the other national-conservative list in this election, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan’s DLR (Arise the Republic. What a tinpot name) which is polling around 1%.
• The PCF-PG “noniste” coalition has progressed since last year, when the PCF alone polled 2.5% and the PCF-PG now polls around 5%.

In terms of voter demographics, the breakdowns are quite interesting

• 62 to 63% of Sarkozy’s first round voters in 2007 are intending to vote for a UMP list. 52-54% of Royal’s voters will do likewise with a PS list, but only 48% of Bayrou’s first round voters will vote for a MoDem list, the rest splitting for the UMP/PS/Greenies.
• The PS is stuck in a weird position with Europe. Around 22-23% of the no voters in 2005 will vote PS, while a similar number of oui voters (20ish) will vote PS. The PS will need to be careful defining its position on Europe, though knowing them they’ll probably make empty statements along the lines of “Social Europe” or “Europe with social justice”.
• The no voters are split this way: PS (22-23%), UMP (17-20%), NPA (15-17%), PCF-PG (9-10%), MoDem (7-10%), Greenies (6-9%), MPF (6-9%), FN (6%), etc.
• Yes voters : UMP (34%), PS (20%), MoDem (17-20%), Greenies (8%), etc.
  

Here are the major lists that will run no matter what: The UMP-NC, PS (now supported by the LeftRads), MoDem, Greenies/ecologist front, MPF (which will likely run under the Irish Libertas thingee), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan’s outfit (supported by small groups with tinpot names and the lol Bonapartists lol), PCF-PG, FN, NPA/the Trots/LO.

Other possible lists include the relatively new Alternative libérale  (the classical liberal party run in, ironically, an authoritarian manner); a possible ecologist front (MEI, France en action, and what remains of GE); Paul-Marie Coûteaux, an MEP elected with the MPF in 2004 but leader of a small outfit called the RIF might run alone (rofl. political suicide); the “We Hate Marine Le Pen” FN dissidents (Carl Lang and Jean-Claude Martinez); an annoying Esperanto thingee; the royalists; a ROFL Maoist party; the old CNIP (which is now out of the UMP’s circle of friends) will run independent lists in a few regions; the Parti Breton; and finally the LaRouchites, again.

In other news, the UMP has nominated most of its top candidates by constituency. Incumbent MEPs are bolded.

• Sud-Est: F. Grossetête
• Nord-Ouest: D. Riquet / T. Saïfi (2nd)
• Île-de-France: M. Barnier / R. Dati (2nd)
• Ouest: C. Béchu / É. Morin (2nd)
• Sud-Ouest: D. Baudis
• Est: J. Daul
• Massif central-Centre: J.-P. Audy

They went for some big names in Paris (very big names in this case) and the Sud-Ouest (never say that the Baudis dynasty is dead). An interesting choice in Christophe Béchu, the young UMP President of the Maine-et-Loire general council. Élisabeth Morin, former UMP President of Poitou-Charentes (she was defeated by the drug addict in 2004), is an MEP since Roselyne Bachelot resigned. In the Nord-Ouest, Borloo and the Rads were able to get the Mayor of Valenciennes, Dominique Riquet to be top candidate. Valérie Létard, a NC cabinet member, was offered that post, but she prefers to try her hand at running in the regionals next year. Tokia Saïfi, a former GE member and now a Rad, will need to live with a second spot, after getting the top spot in 2004. In the Sud-Ouest, incumbent MEP Alain Lamassoure will either need to live with a third spot (he was #1 in 2004) or there is some talk of carpetbagging him to IdF. Only Grossetête and Daul led UMP lists in their respective constituencies in 2004.

Meanwhile, in the world of the Greenies.

Here are the top candidates for Europe Ecologie, a rally of Greenies, antiglobalization people, regionalists (the sell-out UDB and Partit Occitan) and so forth.

• Nord-Ouest: Hélène Flautre, MEP / François Dufour, antiglobalization thingee leader
• Nord-Est: Sandrine Bélier, ecologist jurist / Jacques Muller, Green Senator for the Haut-Rhin
• Ouest: Yannick Jadot, leader of a ecologist organization / Nicole Kiil-Nielsen, Green candidate in Rennes (2008)
• Île de France: Daniel Cohn-Bendit, MEP / Eva Joly, former magistrate
• Massif central-Centre: Jean-Paul Besset, close to Nicolas Hulot
• Sud-Ouest : José Bové, Astérix / Catherine Grèze
• Sud-Est : Michèle Rivasi, former Green MP and deputy-mayor of Valence / François Alfonsi, Corsican regionalist

Renaud Dutreil, initially a rising star in the UMP and since March 2008 an epic failure in politics, has resigned to move to the United States to work for LVMH. At first elected in the Aisne, he carpetbagged to the Marne (in Reims) in 2007 with the city of Reims in mind. But in March 2008, he was defeated by the first round in Reims by the local UMP dissident Catherine Vautrin and the subsequent Socialist winner, Adeline Hazan. He has thus decided to leave politics and leaves his new constituency, Marne-1, which is entirely composed of a fraction of the city of Reims, vacant. A by-election will be held December 7 and 14.

In 2007, he defeated the UMP incumbent Francis Falala for the UMP nomination and ended a very, very long family dynasty control on the constituency. Francis Falala had suceeded his father, deputy and former Mayor of Reims, in 2002. His father had held the seat under the various Gaullist party names since ‘67. Falala tried in vain to stage a dissident candidacy against Dutreil but lost by the first round. He has since fallen out with the local UMP machine and they even ran a candidate against him in his canton in March (though that UMP paper candidate was trounced by Falala).

The 2007 results:
UMP 38.84
PS 23.93
Falala 17.34
MoDem 7.77
PCF 3.17
Greenies 2.93
FN 2.48
LCR 2.11
LO 0.65, Div 0.54, MNR 0.24

Dutreil beat the PS 54-46. Falala’s voters did not split massively for Dutreil. Do note that abstention was nearly 50% in both rounds.

Falala is running again, and the UMP has decided on a paper candidate. The 2007 PS candidate, who has since become a high-ranking member of the PS administration in Reims, is running again, as is a PS dissident. Apart from those four, there is a Greenie, a Commie, a Trot, a MoDem, and a FN.

Should be interesting, definitely. Falala is the one with the best name recognition on the right, since Robinet seems like a random name taken out of a hat by the local UMP (which, btw, loves to lose elections. Kinda like the Illinois GOP). A Falala/PS runoff is definitely a possibility, and I think in that scenario, the right’s victory would be quite comfortable, moreso than a Robinet/PS. If the UMP candidate (Robinet) loses, then the Vautrin leadership in the local UMP machine will need to face serious scrutiny.

Also being held tomorrow are a few cantonal by-elections.

Mézières Centre-Ouest (Ardennes): December 7-14, 2008

2008 Results
DVG 24.39
UMP 20.30
Indie 17.35
Greens 15.92
PCF 8.48
MoDem 5.69
FN 5.60
MRC 2.27

DVG 60.47
UMP 39.53

Cagnes-sur-Mer Centre (Alpes-Maritimes): December 7-14, 2008

2004 Results
UMP 45.26
FN 22.40
PS 15.71
Ecologist 4.66
DVD 4.19
DVD 2.53
PCF 2.82
MNR 1.33

UMP 70.70
FN 29.30

Grasse-Nord (Alpes-Maritimes): December 7-14, 2008

2004 Results
UMP 36.05
PS 31.03
FN 19.29
PCF 4.56
Ecologist 3.70
EXG 2.51
DVD 1.49
EXG 1.36

UMP 43.20
PS 40.81
FN 15.98

Saint-Martin-Vésubie (Alpes-Maritimes): December 7-14, 2008

2004 Results
UMP 60.02
DVD 30.14
FN 7.05
PCF 2.80
Epic fail.

Grasse-Nord is probably the only one that will be remotely interesting, though Mézières Centre-Ouest could be fun too, especially because that left-wing Indie is running again. Saint-Martin-Vésubie will be hilarious just to watch the ownage of the opposition.

The Congress of Reims itself ended last night, after three (useless) days. Everybody urged unity, but nobody wanted to create it themselves. Royal was even booed by members when taking up the touchy issue of alliances with the MoDem. The Reims Congress made the 1990 Rennes Congress (which was dominated by a similar battle and division) look like an example in party unity. The PS shouldn’t hold a Congress in a city starting with “R” or the “Rein” sound anytime soon.

Of course, this is far from over. Now that everybody wasted three days of their life in Reims, it continues. Members will vote on Thursday (first round) to elect a leader. In past years, like 2005, every motion made peace at the Congress and came back together around one candidate. This time, nobody made peace (or almost) and there are three candidates. Martine Aubry, third place in the motions faces her enemy Ségolène Royal, first place in the motions, in this close election. Benoit Hamon, fourth place with 19% in the motions has made peace with nobody (except with the kooky “Utopia” motion, 2%) and is running again. Delanoë, by far the biggest loser in this whole thing, will not run and endorsed Martine Aubry this morning, confirming that he too wants Royal to go away. A majority of his 25% will probably go for Aubry, now the establishment candidate, but the more moderate Delanoë voters might prefer Royal. Anyways, it is hard to predict this thing as the motions vote showed us very well. Members might say “screw the two women” and elected Hamon, the dark horse. Or they might prefer the rebel and fresher-face Royal and elect her. Whichever way they vote, the party is divided and the next leader will face a divided party. There is, however, one winner in all this. Nicolas Sarkozy and the UMP.

If no candidate wins 50% of votes on Thursday, the voters will vote again in a runoff. I’m predicting a runoff will be held. But, who knows?

The Figaro leaked the full results with 99% or so counted last night, and LeMonde.fr released an interactive map this morning, so it appears to be official now. With further adu, the map.

A map of party rivalries, local party bosses and barons, and not at all sociological.

And, don’t trust the leaks that had Hamon ahead in Ardeche. Not as bad as the “SNP will win Glenrothes” rumours and leaks, but still rumours. Yeah, don’t trust them.

Firstly, Royal:

Royal is herself (Poitou-Charentes), the Mayor of Dijon Francois Rebsamen (Côte d’Or), former NPS Vincent Peillon (Somme), Bouches-du-Rhône General Council president and very influental PS boss Guérini (from the Bouches-du-Rhône to the Alpes Maritimes), the Mayor of Lyon and actual leader of her motion Gerard Collomb (Rhône), Bianco (Alpes de Haute Provence), and even the new Mayor of Laval (Mayenne), Guillaume Garot, who probably influenced the small Orne fed. The Hérault fed has some problems of its own with the whole Frèche fiasco thingee, but voted for Royal. The Aude is a bit weird. They too seem to be in a bit of problems right now and it lacks leadership.

Delanoë is the establishment. His major strenghts come from Hollande (Corrèze, Haute-Vienne, Cantal), Jospin (Ariège, though he underperformed in Jospin’s home turn of Haute-Garonne), what remains of DSK (Vaucluse, Val-de-Marne, Val-d’Oise), and Rocard strongholds (Bretagne, Bas-Rhin, Franche-Comté). He got only 38% in Paris, and massively underperformed in the Paris suburbia. Delanoë has little real support all in all, apart from Hollande’s base in the Limousin and Cantal and other areas influenced by old party bosses. His support outside of those area is low. But then, so is Aubry’s.

This map shows how much Fabius contributed to Aubry’s 24ish percent. She got, on her own, only her home turn of Nord-Pas de Calais. Fabiusist control of the feds or Fabius influence made her win the Seine-Maritime, Eure, Calvados, Oise, Indre, Cher, Vosges, Haute-Corse, Pyrénées Orientales, and Seine-Saint-Denis. Saône et Loire? Arnaud Montebourg. However, I am surprised at the “evaporation” of Fabiusist support in the Eure. Fabius’ motion got over 50% in 2005 and Fabius managed to get over 40% in the humiliating 2006 primary. Aubry only won that with a bit over 30%.

Hamon is the left of the party. The eternal party leftist Henri Emmanuelli (Landes, Pyrénées Atlantiques) in addition to the Manche Aube, Creuse and Essonne (Mélenchon, the one who is pissed off).

Full results by fed are available online on LeFigaro here. A is Delanoe, B is the ecologist motion, C is Hamon, D is Aubry, E is Royal and E is Utopia.

A few stats:

• Total registered militants 232,912
• Voting 131,930 (56.64%, of which 98.99% were valid)
• Biggest feds: Paris (19,801), Pas-de-Calais (15,040), Nord (11,632), Bouches-du-Rhône (10,995)
• Smallest fed: Wallis-et-Futuna (2, none of which voted), Lozere (258)

Before anything else, here is a brief overview of how the Socialist Party works. It’s intricate and complex.

Hierarchy

• 161,404 militants (members)
• about 4,000 sections (uniting militants in cities, factory, neighborhood. Atleast 5 members with an elected leader).
• 102 Federations (One for each department and one for French citizens abroad. Led by an elected first secretary). A lot of the sections are led by influential party bosses (Guerini comes to mind in the very powerful Bouches-du-Rhone federation).
• 306 councillors in the National Council (the party’s Parliament that meets 4 times a year. Composed of 102 federal first secretaries and 204 members designated during party congresses)
• Bureau etc. (57 members in the bureau, between 20-30 in the secretariat) are designated by the Nat. Council on the advice of the first secretary
• First Secretary elected by militants in the sections.

Dates

• September 23, 2008: Limit date for deposing motions to the National Council.
• November 6, 2008: Sections vote on motions. The federal congresses then designate delegates to go to the Congress, based proportionally on the motions results.
• November 14-16, 2008: Congress in Reims. In 2005, there were 614 delegates plus 849 members by right (council and bureau members, MNAs, Senators).That figure is slightly higher based on PS gains in the Nat Assembly and Senate.
• November 20-21, 2008: Leadership election by militants in sections.
• November 22, 2008: Bureau and Secretariat designated by the National Council on the advice of the leader.

So, the 102 federations voted on Thursday for motions, there were six motions in the running:

• Royal’s motion (led by Gerard Collomb, Mayor of Lyon). Basically a personality cult with no ideology.
• Delanoe’s motion. Reformist, moderate, and social liberal (the L-word which is like the F-word in the PS). Also, the establishment’s motion (Hollande, Rocard, Ayrault, Jospin).
• Aubry’s motion. Unholy alliance of Fabiusists and Aubry lefties.
• Hamon’s motion. Quasi-Trot, eurosceptic, and left-wing motion. Comparable to the NPS motion in 2005.
• Utopia motion (which got 1.02% in 2005). Trots, alterglobalization and other kooks.
• a miscellaneous “ecologist pole”. Eco-socialists.

The results were very surprising: Royal 29.1%, Aubry 24.41%, Delanoë 24.91%, Hamon 18.66%. Greenies and Utopia below 2%. Firstly, polls indicated that Delanoë had a strong lead and Royal and Aubry were in battle for second position. They had Hamon between 1% and 6%. Firstly, Royal obviously still holds sway over the party base, perhaps due to her status as the rebel and anti-establishment rebel. Hamon was obviously helped by the financial crisis, during which he opposed the government’s bailout. Shows that the NPS left of the PS is still a strong force, even though his result is below the 23.5% polled by the NPS motion in Le Mans. The PS has not yet published results, and will likely wait until Monday to do so. There appears to be a 700 vote margin separating Aubry and Delanoë. And around 1000 votes from the DOM Guadeloupe fed have not yet reported. Leaks have said that Delanoë won Paris with around 38-37 over 25-26 for Royal. Aubry won Lille with around 75. Not sure if that is Lille or the Nord as a whole. Strenghtened by the Guérini endorsement, Royal won the Bouches-du-Rhône with 71 and won the large Hérault fed by 54 (a smaller margin than originally expected). Ouest-France reported results for the west, and would have Royal leading in the Orne, Mayenne, and Vendée. Delanoë would be leading in all 5 Breton departments + the Maine-et-Loire and the Sarthe. Hamon would be ahead in the Calvados and Manche. Leaks suggest he would also be leading in Ardèche.

Aubry has done well, but she basically got the votes of the Fabiusists base (20% of the PS) and little apart from that. Hamon will not let her take the leadership of the left-wing of the party. Hamon’s success is bad for her.

The Reims Congress seems to have the smells of the infamous 1990 Rennes Congress. Royal is celebrated as the winner by the media and pundits and for many, she is now the party leader automatically. It doesn’t work that way. On November 20, the feds will vote again for the leader (and choose between candidates, not motions/lists). Ideally, the party finds one candidate for all motions. However, the race is personal this time.

Here is how it could break down:

• Anti-establishment (Royal-Hamon; 47.76%): No majority, and Royal and Hamon are too ideologically different to work together, unless Royal is desperate.
• Establishment (Delanoë-Aubry; 49.32%): Falls just short of a majority, and Delanoë and Aubry have large egos and a combination between two strong contenders wouldn’t work out well and one ego would be crushed.
• Lefties (Aubry-Hamon; 43.07%): No majority. Hamon wouldn’t let Aubry take over the left-wing of the PS and the PS isn’t that left-wing to elect a leader from the NPS/leftie faction.
• We Hate Royal majority (Delanoë-Aubry-Hamon; 67.98%): The most plausible coalition, but doesn’t solve long-term problems. Firstly, the problem of ego comes back and the gnomes would have a hard time agreeing on a common candidate for the leadership. Secondly, the moderate-reformist establishment (Hollande and Rocard) would likely disapprove of the quasi-Trot Hamon in the majority and could switch to Royal, who would be the more moderate of the two coalitions. Feuds, feuds, feuds.
• Moderate majority (Royal-Delanoë; 54.01%): Would make sense on paper, but Delanoë hates Royal.
• Aubry-Royal would never work, because Aubry would rather join the UMP than work with Royal, whom she absolutely hates. In addition, Fabius and Royal are enemies.

Of course, these coalitions could totally fail on November 20 when the party base votes again. A candidate put forward by a plethora of motions who represent 50% of the votes or more could lose. Also, don’t underestimate the popularity of the anti-establishment and especially Royal with the base.
To make things worse, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Senator, Essonne) and Marc Dolez (Deputy, Nord-17) have left the PS and want to create a party like the German Die Linke and wish to lead the “true left” in the 2009 EU elections. Good luck with that, guys.

Mélenchon and Dolez had endorsed the Hamon motion, btw.

Continue reading for Breton results. Of course, a map will be made when all the results by fed come out and are official.

(more…)

Elections for Class A Senators will be held on September 21 (Sunday). This will concern a third of deparments, and the term will be 6 years instead of the hilariously long 9 years. Starting in 2011, Senate elections will concern half of the departments each election.

The composition on June 30, 2008 was:
23 PCF, 95 Soc, 17 Rads, 30 centrists, 159 UMP, 6 NI.
and those up for election
3 PCF, 29 Soc, 8 Rads, 4 centrists, 56 UMP, 1 NI.

New seats: 12 new seats: 1 each for the Ain, Alpes-Maritimes, Bouches-du-Rhône, Drôme, Eure-et-Loir, Haute-Garonne, Gironde, Hérault, Guyane, Polynesia. 2 new seats each for the new DOMs of Saint-Barth and Saint-Martin. In 2011, there will be 5 new seats (in Class B seats).

Electors:

Electoral college of 50,720 elected officials (49,602 in metro France). 48,453 are local councillors, 178 are MPs, 765 are regional councillors, and 1,504 are general councillors.

Elector rules:

(Commune size : Delegates)

• 1 to 499 people: 1 delegate
• 500 to 1499 people: 3 delegates
• 1500 to 2499 people: 5 delegates
• 2500 to 3499 people: 7 delegates
• 3500 to 8999 people: 15 delegates
• 9000 to 30000 people: All councillors (either 29, 33, 35, or 39 delegates depending on pop.)
• 30000 and over: All councillors + one other delegate for each 1000 inhabitants.
• Overseas seats: Elected by the Assembly of French Abroad (AFE). So, elected by a bunch of nobodies that nobody knows or bothers to vote for. Mostly a bunch of old French ladies that are bored at home.

Elections:

• Departments with 1 to 3 senators: two-round voting. Same system as legislative elections. Vendee 2004 election
• Departments with more than 4 senators: Proportional representation with highest average, no Panachage or preferential voting. See explanation below.

1. determination of the number of candidates elected in each list:
ex: 5 seats
1532 votes expressing a view
1532/5= 306.4 (quotient)
a. seat attribution using the quotient
List A: 1023 votes/306.4 (quotient)= 3.34 or 3 seats
List B: 258/306.4=0.84 or 0 seats
List C: 251/306.4=0.82 or 0 seats
b. attribution of remaining seats using highest averages
4th seat
List A: 1023 votes/(3 seats + 1 simulated seat)= 255.75
List B: 258/(0+1)=258
List C: 251/(0+1)=251
List B gets the 4th seat
5th seat
List A: 1023 votes/(3 seats + 1 simulated seat)= 255.75
List B: 258/(1+1)=129
List C: 251/(0+1)=251
List A gets the last seat
Real-life example (Jesus, I’m sounding like a math textbook): Seine-Saint-Denis 2004 election
Overseas seats use this method too.

2008 election:
Department (number of electors): Composition by group.

Ain (1563)
2 UMP
1 new seat

Aisne (1778)
2 UMP
1 vacant (RDSE)

Allier (970)
2 UMP

Alpes de Haute-Provences (459)
1 PS

Hautes-Alpes (400)
1 UMP

Alpes-Maritimes (1814)
3 UMP
1 RDSE
1 new seat

Ardèche (979)
1 PS
1 UMP

Ardennes (957)
2 UMP

Ariège (611)
1 PS

Aube (958)
1 UMP
1 NI (liberal one-man party, DVD)

Aude (1063)
2 PS

Aveyron (859)
1 UMP
1 idiot (a MPF member in the RDSE group, the most pro-European group there is)

Bouches-du-Rhône (3262)
3 PS
2 UMP
1 UC-UDF
1 PCF

Calvados (1978)
2 UMP
1 UC-UDF

Cantal (524)
2 UMP

Charente (1093)
1 UMP
1 UC-UDF

Charente-Maritime (1626)
3 UMP

Cher (871)
2 UMP

Corrèze (748)
1 UMP
1 RDSE

Corse-du-Sud (366)
1 RDSE

Haute-Corse (536)
1 RDSE

Côte-d’Or (1566)
3 UMP

Côtes-d’Armor (1628)
2 PS
1 PCF

Creuse (500)
2 PS

Dordogne (1301)
1 PS
1 UMP

Doubs (1514)
3 UMP

Drôme (1280)
2 PS
1 new seat

Eure (1721)
3 UMP

Eure-et-Loir (1229)
2 UMP
1 new seat

Finistère (2096)
3 PS
1 UMP

Gard (1688)
3 PS

Haute-Garonne (2452)
4 PS
1 new seat

Gers (755)
1 RDSE
1 UMP

Gironde (3006)
3 UMP
2 PS
1 new seat

Hérault (2094)
1 UMP
1 RDSE
1 PS
1 new seat

Ille-et-Vilaine (2317)
3 UMP
1 UC-UDF

Indre (684)
2 UMP

Belfort (356)
1 PS

Guyane (358)
1 RDSE
1 new seat

Polynesia (697)
1 UMP
1 new seat

Saint-Martin (23)
1 new seat

Saint-Barthélemy (19)
1 new seat

Wallis-et-Futuna (21)
1 UMP

French Citizens Abroad (?) This concerns only 5 of the 12 seats
4 UMP
1 PCF

The electoral system prevents a large-scale pink wave in this election and there is little chance that the PS will gain control of the Senate. In addition, some seats are decided by a small amount of votes, so division on the left or right doesn’t help.

See:

http://www.senat.fr/senateurs/elections/2008/
http://www.senat.fr/senateurs/elections//2008/brochure.pdf
http://www.senat.fr/senateurs/elections/2008/senatoriales2008/ar/liste_composition_par_groupe_politique_serie.pdf

For those of you who have followed recent French by-elections you’ll probably ask why the 1st Eure-et-Loir constituency comes up a second time. The reason is hilarious. In December 2007, the UMP deputy for the constituency, Jean-Pierre Gorges saw his election invalidated. In January, he was defeated by the Socialist Francoise Vallet. Just now, she has been invalidated for a reason that is a little silly: a supermarket campaigned for her and she accepted the endorsement. In addition to the silly reason, she is ineligible for any elected office for a period of one year. So, for the third (in some cases, fourth) the voters will need to elect another deputy hoping he or she isn’t invalidated in August or September.

The constituency is a bellwether constituency: in 1988 and 1997 it elected PS deputies, in 1993, 2002, and June 2007 it elected a RPR or UMP deputy. However, the June 2007 election was very close, with Gorges (UMP) defeating Vallet (PS) by a handful of votes. By the time of the 1st by-election in January 2008, the government’s popularity had dipped and the PS won with 55.3% in the runoff, probably taking most of the MoDem’s 18.5%. The March 2008 Chartres local election was a replay of the by-election, with the top three candidates in the by-election standing as candidates of their respective parties. Vallet was heavily favoured to win and the MoDem, which polled only 13.5% merged with Vallet’s list. Mathematically, it was quite hard for Gorges to win. But he did. And not by a handful of votes, more like 55-45. MoDem voters probably voted against their party’s line. Based on the 55-45 result in the last election, the race definitely leans to the Socialists, but the defeat of Vallet in Chartres in March makes this more competitive. The PS needs to hold this seat, and the UMP needs to regain this seat. The MoDem, which polled 18.5% in the by-election but only 13.5% in Chartres (the MoDem took over 18% in the city in June and the by-election) must try to keep its result up at 18%. The FN, which polled 12% in 2002 but 5% in June and 4.2% in January will probably try to get back atleast to its 5% result.

The present-day Socialist Party was born in Epinay in 1971 (or, arguably, Issy in 1969), and the PS’s ancestor, the SFIO, a socialist party with a penchant for Marxism, was born in 1905. The SFIO was the biggest party of the socialist left for most of the Third Republic and then the largest left-wing party in the Fourth Republic’s Troisieme Force, but still weaker electorally than the independent PCF. The SFIO actually didn’t form many governments during the Fourth Republic: most governments were MRP, CNIP, or Radical- more moderate parties that could win confidence votes. It did, however, form the government from 1956 to 1957 under Guy Mollet (SFIO), making it the longest Fourth Republic government, just over 400 days in power. That was in the midst of the Algerian conflict.

PSU

Mollet’s hard-line platform in government to the Algerian crisis was far from popular within his own party. In fact, Mollet was elected in 1956 on a platform to end the war, which he called stupid, and give Algeria its independence. That is, until he received tomatoes in his face in Algers from pieds-noir and until the Assembly couldn’t provide him a majority on a liberal line of action. He adopted a hard-line and pro-war platform in government. In 1958, the SFIO under his leadership supported the return to power of Charles de Gaulle and the new Republic. Those to the left of the SFIO formed the Autonomous Socialist Party (PSA) in 1958 and then the Unified Socialist Party (PSU) in 1960. By the early ’60s, the SFIO had lost 80% of its 1945 members, and under the Mollet leadership, the SFIO was reduced to a minor party.

The PSU was neither a social democratic party nor a far-left Trot party. It sought to occupy the middle ground between socialism (SFIO) and communism (PCF). The party, composed mostly of anti-colonialist socialists, was split into two factions: revolutionaries and reformists. The party was joined by Pierre Mendès France, member of the Radical Party who rejected the Fifth Republic. During the 1968 crisis, the PSU supported the student movement, unlike the SFIO and PCF. From there, the PSU turned into an anti-establishment and autogestionary party, and it refused to sign the Common Programme. Ironically, the PSU had always proned the Union of the Left. With Epinay, the PSU became a fringe party next to the united left, and numerous left to join the PS, such as Michel Rocard, who was formerly the leader of the PSU. The Trot faction joined the LCR or ultra-fringe Maoist and Marxist parties (PCMLF). The PSU participated in the Mauroy government with Huguette Bouchardeau. This participation was unpopular in PSU ranks and the reformists became a minority at the 1984 Bourges Congress. The party dissolved in 1989, with members joining various red-green parties (AREV), anti-globalization thingees (CAP), or even the Greenies.

Electorally, the party polled an average of 2 or 3% of the votes. In 1962, it won 2.33% and 2 seats (Finistere, Seine); in 1967 it won 2.26% and 4 seats (Ardennes, Cotes-du-Nord, Finistere, and Isere [with Mendes-France]). In 1968, despite polling its highest vote share ever, 3.94%, it lost all seats. One must note, however, that the PSU ran much more candidates in 1968 than it did in 1967 (321 in 1968 vs. 117 in 1967). In fact, PSU candidates won an average of 4,234 votes in 1967, but only 2,723 votes in 1968. In the 32 constituencies where the party had obtained over 10% in 1967, the PSU lost in 24 of those and gained in only 8 of those. In 1973, it won 3.3% and Yves Le Foll (Cotes-du-Nord) was the only PSU to retrieve his seat. Le Foll also served for numerous years, until 1983, as Mayor of Saint-Brieuc. In 1978 and 1981, the PSU was grouped with the far-left in vote totals.

In the 1965 presidential election, the PSU, like the SFIO and PCF, supported the candidacy of Francois Mitterrand, who was independent of all parties and member of the Convention of Republican Institutions (CIR). Mitterrand won 45% in the runoff against Charles de Gaulle. With the explosion of the FGDS in 1969 (see below), the left ran divided in 1969. Michel Rocard ran for the PSU, and obtained 3.61%, only a few percentage points behind the Gaston Defferre-Mendes “ticket” of the SFIO (in the American President-Veep style). In 1981, the PSU candidate Huguette Bouchardeau won only 1.11% of the vote, a result of the decline of the PSU that started with Epinay in 1973. In 1988, the PSU supported the Communist dissident candidate Pierre Juquin, who won 2.09%. Juquin was also supported by the LCR and SOS Racisme and had the ambition to build a coalition of Trots, red greenies, PCF dissidents, and other revolutionary crazies.

Despite its chaotic history, and marginalization over the years, the PSU was the first party for numerous present-day PS members. From the PSU ranks came Jack Lang, Michel Rocard, Marylise Lebranchu, Jean-Paul Huchon (all PS), Alain Lipietz, Gilles Lemaire (Greenies), and Arlette Laguiller (LO).

UFD

The Union of Democratic Forces, or UFD, was a little known anti-Gaullist left-wing party that had a brief existance at the birth of the Fifth Republic. It was composed of union members, and other non-Communist candidates opposed to de Gaulle. In the 1958, it won only two seats, but its candidate in the 1958 indirect presidential election, Albert Chatelet, won 79,416 electoral “votes”, or 8.46%. Its members later joined the PSU.

FGDS

The Federation of the Democratic and Socialist Left, FGDS, was formed after the sucess of the Mitterrand candidacy in 1965 (45% in the runoff against de Gaulle). Mitterrand, who had been the candidate of the SFIO, PCF, CIR, and PSU, united the SFIO, Radicals, CIR, and UDSR under the FGDS banne. In the 1967 election, the united FGDS, which had signed electoral deals with the PCF, came very close to defeating the Gaullist majority. In fact, the UNR won only 233 seats in metro France, while the PCF+FGDS+PDM (all opposition parties) won 237. The UNR formed a majority government with its success in overseas seats (12 of 15 seats to the UNR). The FGDS group, formed of 116 FGDS MPs and 5 (4 PSU and 1 DVG) caucusing members, numbered 121 in all, making it the second largest party. The SFIO group had only 66 seats in 1962. However, the question of deals with the PCF divided the party. During the May 1968 crisis, Mitterrand was certain that de Gaulle would resign in the wake of the protests, and announced his candidacy to the “presidential election of 1968″. de Gaulle did not resign, and dissolved the National Assembly. The FGDS won only 16.5% and was reduced to 57 seats, lower than 1962. In terms of seats, Giscard’s Independent Republicans formed a numerically larger parliamentary group (61 MPs). The UDR won a majority of seats on its own, and with the CD and RI, it had nearly 400 of the 485 seats. In the wake of the electoral rout, the FGDS blew up, with the SFIO leading its own candidacy in 1969. Gaston Defferre, for the SFIO, won barely 5% of the votes, far behind the third-placed PCF candidate, who won over 20%.

A by-election will be held in the 11th constituency of the Rhône departement in the near future after the invalidation of the election of the UMP deputy Georges Fenech in 2007. Fenech was also condemned to a one-year ban on public office.

The 11th constituency includes the Lyon suburban cantons of Givors, Mornant, Condrieu, and Saint-Symphorien d’Ozon. Givors, the largest city, is a long-time Communist stronghold, and still detained by a PCF mayor. The left dominates in the city and its suburbs in most national elections. The right, however, has a lock on votes in the rural areas, predominantly those in the cantons of Mornant and Saint-Symphorien, but also in Condrieu (which is a bellwether, close county)

Fenech was re-elected to a second term in 2007 with 56.54% in the runoff against the Socialist candidate, who took 43.46%. Fenech had almost won by the first round, where he took 48.9% against 23.64% for the Socialist. The MoDem obtained 9.64%, the FN won 5.14%, the Greens 4.39%, the LCR candidate took 3.52%. 6 other candidates split the few remaining votes.

The map below shows how the communes part of the constituency voted:

The constituency has had a net shift to the right since 2002.

In the 1993 Socialist disaster, the constituency booted out its PS incumbent- by the first round- and chose a RPR-FN runoff. To be fair, the PS wasn’t help by a strong PCF (11.51%) and the Greenies (12.41%). The RPR candidate took 38.49%, the FN won 17.99% and the PS was closely behind with 16.88%. Bahu, RPR, won with 68.6%. The 1988-1993 PS deputy had a second run in 1997, where he won, profiting from a three-way PS-RPR-FN runoff. The RPR incumbent, who had led the first round, had trouble rallying voters, while the Socialists rallied about 10,000 more voters, mostly Communists and Greens. The FN, with 22.32% in the first round, won just 15.77%, but possibly denied Bahu (RPR) a second term. Fenech was elected in 2002, defeating the PS incumbent, which had led the first round. Fenech was able to get the UDF’s 15.1% and possibly most of the FN’s 15.3% and DL’s 7.4%. He won narrowly, with 51.98%. His 2007 score was thus much superior to his 2002 score, a rarity in the 2007 runoff climate.

Looking at other elections, Sarkozy took 57.88% in the constituency in 2007. Up in 2004, the canton of Givors re-elected a PCF councillor. In 2008, Candrieu re-elected its PS councillor, who took advantage of the divisions of the right. In Saint-Symphorien, the most right-wing canton, the NC councillor won 62% by the first round. Mornant re-elected a MoDem councillor.

The UMP will likely win the by-election, possibly with a reduced margin in both rounds. The FN might gain back a few votes lost in 2007, while the MoDem should hold relatively stable.

Corse (=)

Corse-du-Sud: Elected in 2001 by gaining the city from a dynasty of Bonapartist mayors (yes, they do exist), Simon Renucci (DVG-CSD) was easily re-elected. Of course, one might foolishly that the fact that Sarkozy broke 60% means that the UMP would win, but politics in Corsica are very, very strange and predictions by experts are usually disastrous. Anyways, Renucci took 66.4% in the runoff. The UMP held Porto-Vecchio narrowly, defeating the nationalists. The UMP took a bit over 48%, while the nationalists took over 44%.

Haute-Corse: Relating to my first point on foolish predictions, here is a good example. After his defeat in the 2007 legislative elections (mostly due to the work of the nationalists allying with the UMP), the Radical mayor of Bastia, Emile Zuccarelli was supposed to lose. He almost won by the first round, with 49.7% against 15.9% for a nationalist (2 nationalist candidates took over 22% combined). The UMP trailed in fourth (behind a DVG list) with 11.6%. Zuccarelli won with 56.9% against 25% for the nationalist. The UMP and DVG lost votes and fell under 10%.

DOM-TOM (PS/PCR +2)

Guadeloupe: Defeated in 2004, the UMP Senator Lucette Michaux-Chevry made a comeback in Basse-Terre, by winning the city with 50.1% in the runoff, defeating a DVD and Indie list. The left held Pointe-a-Pitre, with 39.9% for the winning DVG list, the other DVG list took 37.4% and the Greenies took 22.8%.

Guyane: One leftie replaced another in Cayenne, with a DVG candidate defeating the PSG (Socialist) incumbent by the first round, with 50.9%.

Martinique: After succeeding his mentor Aime Cesaire (RIP) in 2001, Serge Letchimy (PPM) was easily re-elected with 82.6%, the DVD and MIM lists below 10%.

Mayotte: No word on the municipals, because I don’t know anything about Mayotte, but instead a word on the cantonales. The UMP has gained Mayotte from an Indie.

Nouvelle-Caledonie: The UMP held Noumea.

Polynesie: The UMP incumbent Michel Buillard held his seat, defeating nationalists and a DVD list by the first round in Papeete.

Reunion: The left re-gained Saint-Denis from the UMP after having lost it in 2001. The PS took 53.8% in the runoff, defeating the UMP incumbent. Another gain for the left, from the UMP, by the PCR (Communist) deputy Hugette Bello. The PCR narrowly won, with 50.15% and 72% turnout. The UMP did hold Saint-Pierre and Le Tampon. The UMP also ‘held’ the general council, though weirdly. The incumbent UMP president was re-elected with the votes of the PS, PCR, MoDem, and a part of the UMP against an official UMP candidate. Total PS/PCR +2

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon: The PS/Ensemble pour Construire mayor of Saint-Pierre was re-elected defeating the PRG deputy Annick Girardin. The UMP/Archipel Demain held the general council.