The constituency is a bellwether constituency: in 1988 and 1997 it elected PS deputies, in 1993, 2002, and June 2007 it elected a RPR or UMP deputy. However, the June 2007 election was very close, with Gorges (UMP) defeating Vallet (PS) by a handful of votes. By the time of the 1st by-election in January 2008, the government’s popularity had dipped and the PS won with 55.3% in the runoff, probably taking most of the MoDem’s 18.5%. The March 2008 Chartres local election was a replay of the by-election, with the top three candidates in the by-election standing as candidates of their respective parties. Vallet was heavily favoured to win and the MoDem, which polled only 13.5% merged with Vallet’s list. Mathematically, it was quite hard for Gorges to win. But he did. And not by a handful of votes, more like 55-45. MoDem voters probably voted against their party’s line. Based on the 55-45 result in the last election, the race definitely leans to the Socialists, but the defeat of Vallet in Chartres in March makes this more competitive. The PS needs to hold this seat, and the UMP needs to regain this seat. The MoDem, which polled 18.5% in the by-election but only 13.5% in Chartres (the MoDem took over 18% in the city in June and the by-election) must try to keep its result up at 18%. The FN, which polled 12% in 2002 but 5% in June and 4.2% in January will probably try to get back atleast to its 5% result.

PSU

Mollet’s hard-line platform in government to the Algerian crisis was far from popular within his own party. In fact, Mollet was elected in 1956 on a platform to end the war, which he called stupid, and give Algeria its independence. That is, until he received tomatoes in his face in Algers from pieds-noir and until the Assembly couldn’t provide him a majority on a liberal line of action. He adopted a hard-line and pro-war platform in government. In 1958, the SFIO under his leadership supported the return to power of Charles de Gaulle and the new Republic. Those to the left of the SFIO formed the Autonomous Socialist Party (PSA) in 1958 and then the Unified Socialist Party (PSU) in 1960. By the early ’60s, the SFIO had lost 80% of its 1945 members, and under the Mollet leadership, the SFIO was reduced to a minor party.

The PSU was neither a social democratic party nor a far-left Trot party. It sought to occupy the middle ground between socialism (SFIO) and communism (PCF). The party, composed mostly of anti-colonialist socialists, was split into two factions: revolutionaries and reformists. The party was joined by Pierre Mendès France, member of the Radical Party who rejected the Fifth Republic. During the 1968 crisis, the PSU supported the student movement, unlike the SFIO and PCF. From there, the PSU turned into an anti-establishment and autogestionary party, and it refused to sign the Common Programme. Ironically, the PSU had always proned the Union of the Left. With Epinay, the PSU became a fringe party next to the united left, and numerous left to join the PS, such as Michel Rocard, who was formerly the leader of the PSU. The Trot faction joined the LCR or ultra-fringe Maoist and Marxist parties (PCMLF). The PSU participated in the Mauroy government with Huguette Bouchardeau. This participation was unpopular in PSU ranks and the reformists became a minority at the 1984 Bourges Congress. The party dissolved in 1989, with members joining various red-green parties (AREV), anti-globalization thingees (CAP), or even the Greenies.

Electorally, the party polled an average of 2 or 3% of the votes. In 1962, it won 2.33% and 2 seats (Finistere, Seine); in 1967 it won 2.26% and 4 seats (Ardennes, Cotes-du-Nord, Finistere, and Isere [with Mendes-France]). In 1968, despite polling its highest vote share ever, 3.94%, it lost all seats. One must note, however, that the PSU ran much more candidates in 1968 than it did in 1967 (321 in 1968 vs. 117 in 1967). In fact, PSU candidates won an average of 4,234 votes in 1967, but only 2,723 votes in 1968. In the 32 constituencies where the party had obtained over 10% in 1967, the PSU lost in 24 of those and gained in only 8 of those. In 1973, it won 3.3% and Yves Le Foll (Cotes-du-Nord) was the only PSU to retrieve his seat. Le Foll also served for numerous years, until 1983, as Mayor of Saint-Brieuc. In 1978 and 1981, the PSU was grouped with the far-left in vote totals.

In the 1965 presidential election, the PSU, like the SFIO and PCF, supported the candidacy of Francois Mitterrand, who was independent of all parties and member of the Convention of Republican Institutions (CIR). Mitterrand won 45% in the runoff against Charles de Gaulle. With the explosion of the FGDS in 1969 (see below), the left ran divided in 1969. Michel Rocard ran for the PSU, and obtained 3.61%, only a few percentage points behind the Gaston Defferre-Mendes “ticket” of the SFIO (in the American President-Veep style). In 1981, the PSU candidate Huguette Bouchardeau won only 1.11% of the vote, a result of the decline of the PSU that started with Epinay in 1973. In 1988, the PSU supported the Communist dissident candidate Pierre Juquin, who won 2.09%. Juquin was also supported by the LCR and SOS Racisme and had the ambition to build a coalition of Trots, red greenies, PCF dissidents, and other revolutionary crazies.

Despite its chaotic history, and marginalization over the years, the PSU was the first party for numerous present-day PS members. From the PSU ranks came Jack Lang, Michel Rocard, Marylise Lebranchu, Jean-Paul Huchon (all PS), Alain Lipietz, Gilles Lemaire (Greenies), and Arlette Laguiller (LO).

UFD

The Union of Democratic Forces, or UFD, was a little known anti-Gaullist left-wing party that had a brief existance at the birth of the Fifth Republic. It was composed of union members, and other non-Communist candidates opposed to de Gaulle. In the 1958, it won only two seats, but its candidate in the 1958 indirect presidential election, Albert Chatelet, won 79,416 electoral “votes”, or 8.46%. Its members later joined the PSU.

FGDS

The Federation of the Democratic and Socialist Left, FGDS, was formed after the sucess of the Mitterrand candidacy in 1965 (45% in the runoff against de Gaulle). Mitterrand, who had been the candidate of the SFIO, PCF, CIR, and PSU, united the SFIO, Radicals, CIR, and UDSR under the FGDS banne. In the 1967 election, the united FGDS, which had signed electoral deals with the PCF, came very close to defeating the Gaullist majority. In fact, the UNR won only 233 seats in metro France, while the PCF+FGDS+PDM (all opposition parties) won 237. The UNR formed a majority government with its success in overseas seats (12 of 15 seats to the UNR). The FGDS group, formed of 116 FGDS MPs and 5 (4 PSU and 1 DVG) caucusing members, numbered 121 in all, making it the second largest party. The SFIO group had only 66 seats in 1962. However, the question of deals with the PCF divided the party. During the May 1968 crisis, Mitterrand was certain that de Gaulle would resign in the wake of the protests, and announced his candidacy to the “presidential election of 1968″. de Gaulle did not resign, and dissolved the National Assembly. The FGDS won only 16.5% and was reduced to 57 seats, lower than 1962. In terms of seats, Giscard’s Independent Republicans formed a numerically larger parliamentary group (61 MPs). The UDR won a majority of seats on its own, and with the CD and RI, it had nearly 400 of the 485 seats. In the wake of the electoral rout, the FGDS blew up, with the SFIO leading its own candidacy in 1969. Gaston Defferre, for the SFIO, won barely 5% of the votes, far behind the third-placed PCF candidate, who won over 20%.

NC-UMP 51.36%
PS 48.64%

So, my prediction of 51-49 was quite spot on, and what I had seen happening happened. Turnout remained horrid (29%) and the PS candidate took almost all of the PCF, Greenies, PRG etc. voters but didn’t get the key to all this, the MoDem, which likely broke narrowly for Durand (NC). This result is very much like Fenech’s 2002 result, where the UMP gained the seat from the PS with 52% of the vote.

The Prefecture of the Rhone still has communal data for the runoff, so…

The PS did extremely well in the Givors area and also in the bellwether canton of Condrieu (which probably broke narrowly for Durand, still). The PS also won a few communes in the north of Mornant canton. Save for the Lyon suburb of Mions, which went PS, Durand won Saint-Symphorien quite heavily, probably a mix of both it being very right-wing and him being the general councillor for the canton.

So, that’s that. Let’s wait eagerly for the next by-election, now.

Before anything else, the results.

NC-UMP 41.78%
PS 23.29%
PCF 15.32%
Greenies 6.25%
MoDem 5.09%
FN 4.04%
LCR 3.32%
PRG 0.48%
ARC 0.45%

Basically the pattern to be expected for the NC-UMP, they lost 6.31% over June 2007, a result of bad turnout (27.03%) and the UMP’s current unpopularity. The Socialists lost 0.35%, but considering how strong the PCF ran, it’s still a good result for the PS. The PCF obtained an excellent result, better than its 1993 or 1997 results by far and only a bit below its 1988 level (16.1%). Can be explained by two things: the PCF candidate had excellent name recognition- he’s the mayor of Givors, the constituency’s largest city and the PCF always does relatively well in the constituency (provided they run a candidate, they didn’t in 2002 or 2007). The Greenies also got a good result, better than their 2007 result by 1.86%, but below their 12% record in 1993 (obviously). The FN actually lost votes, their voters not turning out well, and they lost 1.1% over their already dreadful June 2007 result. The MoDem, who won 9.6% in June lost 4.55% and is left behind the Greenies with 5.09%. They still hold the key to the runoff (more on that later).

In addition, due the excellent Prefecture of the Rhone, we have data by commune and a map is possible!

The pattern to be expected in a constituency like this one. The NC candidate, who is the general councillor for Saint-Symphorien did well in that area (which is generally the best area for any UMP candidate too) but less so in Mornant and Condrieu. The left won the belt between Condrieu and the north (where Givors is) and the PCF candidate broke 40% in his city of Givors (he’s the mayor) and took over 30% in a suburb. The same urban vs. rural trend seen in 2007 continues.

For the runoff now, you ask? Well, Durand (NC) has a small advantage, but it should be quite narrow (probably the 2002 results, in fact, 51-49 for Durand or something similar). The MoDem will probably be the key in this, assuming the left has a full turnout of all PCF, Green, PRG voters, which gives it around 48% and about 49% if the Trots turn out well (which they don’t, they’re an unreliable lot).

If you’re interested in the data by commune, the source is here. (needs PDF).

(more…)

The 11th constituency includes the Lyon suburban cantons of Givors, Mornant, Condrieu, and Saint-Symphorien d’Ozon. Givors, the largest city, is a long-time Communist stronghold, and still detained by a PCF mayor. The left dominates in the city and its suburbs in most national elections. The right, however, has a lock on votes in the rural areas, predominantly those in the cantons of Mornant and Saint-Symphorien, but also in Condrieu (which is a bellwether, close county)

Fenech was re-elected to a second term in 2007 with 56.54% in the runoff against the Socialist candidate, who took 43.46%. Fenech had almost won by the first round, where he took 48.9% against 23.64% for the Socialist. The MoDem obtained 9.64%, the FN won 5.14%, the Greens 4.39%, the LCR candidate took 3.52%. 6 other candidates split the few remaining votes.

The map below shows how the communes part of the constituency voted:

The constituency has had a net shift to the right since 2002.

In the 1993 Socialist disaster, the constituency booted out its PS incumbent- by the first round- and chose a RPR-FN runoff. To be fair, the PS wasn’t help by a strong PCF (11.51%) and the Greenies (12.41%). The RPR candidate took 38.49%, the FN won 17.99% and the PS was closely behind with 16.88%. Bahu, RPR, won with 68.6%. The 1988-1993 PS deputy had a second run in 1997, where he won, profiting from a three-way PS-RPR-FN runoff. The RPR incumbent, who had led the first round, had trouble rallying voters, while the Socialists rallied about 10,000 more voters, mostly Communists and Greens. The FN, with 22.32% in the first round, won just 15.77%, but possibly denied Bahu (RPR) a second term. Fenech was elected in 2002, defeating the PS incumbent, which had led the first round. Fenech was able to get the UDF’s 15.1% and possibly most of the FN’s 15.3% and DL’s 7.4%. He won narrowly, with 51.98%. His 2007 score was thus much superior to his 2002 score, a rarity in the 2007 runoff climate.

Looking at other elections, Sarkozy took 57.88% in the constituency in 2007. Up in 2004, the canton of Givors re-elected a PCF councillor. In 2008, Candrieu re-elected its PS councillor, who took advantage of the divisions of the right. In Saint-Symphorien, the most right-wing canton, the NC councillor won 62% by the first round. Mornant re-elected a MoDem councillor.

The UMP will likely win the by-election, possibly with a reduced margin in both rounds. The FN might gain back a few votes lost in 2007, while the MoDem should hold relatively stable.

Total Gains: Left +48 over the right. Total for all cities talked about in all regions. It doesn’t include changes within the same majority (such as PCF > Greenie, PCF > PS etc). The PS lost cities in only 2 regions, Bretagne (limited to one department, the 29) and Champagne-Ardenne.

Personal Votes: Looking at the vote totals in some cities that are normally close in national races, the incumbents usually carried their races with a much larger MoV than their party did in 2007. Doesn’t apply in general to one party, but to generally everybody.

Revenge: Two major revenges happened. Firstly, Juppe held Bordeaux after losing his constituency in 2007. In Chartres, the UMP incumbent defeated the Socialist who had taken his seat in a by-election earlier this year (even though he was supposed to get trounced).

Polls: They predicted the PS gains in Strasbourg, Toulouse, Reims and others; and were quite good in Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Rennes, Lille, Bordeaux so forth. They didn’t have the PS winning Saint-Etienne or most importantly Amiens (which was really a huge surprise result, both rounds). They had Tourcoing staying PS, but didn’t see the first round victory there.

Corse-du-Sud: Elected in 2001 by gaining the city from a dynasty of Bonapartist mayors (yes, they do exist), Simon Renucci (DVG-CSD) was easily re-elected. Of course, one might foolishly that the fact that Sarkozy broke 60% means that the UMP would win, but politics in Corsica are very, very strange and predictions by experts are usually disastrous. Anyways, Renucci took 66.4% in the runoff. The UMP held Porto-Vecchio narrowly, defeating the nationalists. The UMP took a bit over 48%, while the nationalists took over 44%.

Haute-Corse: Relating to my first point on foolish predictions, here is a good example. After his defeat in the 2007 legislative elections (mostly due to the work of the nationalists allying with the UMP), the Radical mayor of Bastia, Emile Zuccarelli was supposed to lose. He almost won by the first round, with 49.7% against 15.9% for a nationalist (2 nationalist candidates took over 22% combined). The UMP trailed in fourth (behind a DVG list) with 11.6%. Zuccarelli won with 56.9% against 25% for the nationalist. The UMP and DVG lost votes and fell under 10%.

DOM-TOM (PS/PCR +2)

Guadeloupe: Defeated in 2004, the UMP Senator Lucette Michaux-Chevry made a comeback in Basse-Terre, by winning the city with 50.1% in the runoff, defeating a DVD and Indie list. The left held Pointe-a-Pitre, with 39.9% for the winning DVG list, the other DVG list took 37.4% and the Greenies took 22.8%.

Guyane: One leftie replaced another in Cayenne, with a DVG candidate defeating the PSG (Socialist) incumbent by the first round, with 50.9%.

Martinique: After succeeding his mentor Aime Cesaire (RIP) in 2001, Serge Letchimy (PPM) was easily re-elected with 82.6%, the DVD and MIM lists below 10%.

Mayotte: No word on the municipals, because I don’t know anything about Mayotte, but instead a word on the cantonales. The UMP has gained Mayotte from an Indie.

Nouvelle-Caledonie: The UMP held Noumea.

Polynesie: The UMP incumbent Michel Buillard held his seat, defeating nationalists and a DVD list by the first round in Papeete.

Reunion: The left re-gained Saint-Denis from the UMP after having lost it in 2001. The PS took 53.8% in the runoff, defeating the UMP incumbent. Another gain for the left, from the UMP, by the PCR (Communist) deputy Hugette Bello. The PCR narrowly won, with 50.15% and 72% turnout. The UMP did hold Saint-Pierre and Le Tampon. The UMP also ‘held’ the general council, though weirdly. The incumbent UMP president was re-elected with the votes of the PS, PCR, MoDem, and a part of the UMP against an official UMP candidate. Total PS/PCR +2

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon: The PS/Ensemble pour Construire mayor of Saint-Pierre was re-elected defeating the PRG deputy Annick Girardin. The UMP/Archipel Demain held the general council.

Aisne: The left-wing gain didn’t come from Laon, which stayed on the right with 54.2% by the first round for the UMP, but instead from Soissons (2nd largest city), where the PS prevailed with 56.9%. The largest city, Saint-Quentin, a UMP stronghold, was easily held by the UMP, which took 60.8% in the first round. In a entirely left-wing race in Tergnier between the DVG (GDR member) deputy Jacques Desallangre and the PS, Desallangre won with 67.8% by the first round. The real race in Chateau-Thierry was also left-left, with a DVG candidate defeating the PS mayor by the first round. Total PS +1

Oise: Generally right-wing, the right held all but one of its positions in the department. In Compiegne, the UMP was re-elected with 65.8% by the first round. In Beauvais, Caroline Cayeux (UMP) held her seat with over 58% in the runoff. A DVD candidate won the race in Senlis to replace the retiring right-wing incumbent. He defeated the UMP by about 4%, and the left trailed far behind with about 15%. For the PS, they held Creil, and gained Noyon (where the incumbent, UMP, was retiring) in a close DVG-UMP-FN runoff. Total DVG +1

Somme: Unknown by about 50% of the city a month before, Gilles Demailly came from behind in Amiens and won a stunning upset over the NC incumbent, former Education Minister Gilles de Robien. Pollsters got it dead wrong, even in their last poll. Demailly came out on top of the (small) gang in the first round, with 41.4% against 38.9% for de Robien. The LCR provided him with a formidable vote reservoir, the LCR candidate had taken 6.4%. The MoDem took 5.8%. The LCR and LO likely went massively for Demailly and MoDem voters also preferred the Socialist to the former UDF mayor- Demailly took a surprisingly large 56.2% in the runoff. In addition to Amiens, the left gained Abbeville with almost 60% against the UMP, which had trouble taking the votes from two strong DVD lists in the first round. The UMP is left with Albert, which it held with about 66%. To add to the rout of the NC-UMP in the municipal election, the left gained the departmental presidency from the NC. Total PS +2

Nord-Pas-de-Calais (=)

Nord: A cruel blow to the Nord UMP came in Tourcoing, where the UMP had believed in its good chance to gain the Lille suburb and take the Lille area council with it. It didn’t, and by a lot. Firstly, the candidate didn’t exactly held. Christian Vanneste, an homophobic CNIP (UMP associate) deputy had won the UMP’s endorsement, but not without controversy. The PS won the city by the first round, a first in Tourcoing. The Socialists took 53.6% against a mere 30.7% for Vanneste. The MoDem came in third, surprisingly, with 8.5%, while the FN took 7.3%. In Lille, the PS incumbent Martine Aubry was comfortably re-elected, with over 66% in the runoff. She had previously rallied the Greenies (11.6%) and the centrists (7.8%). In the other Lille suburb, Roubaix, a solid leftist city, the PS mayor René Vandierendonck dominated the runoff, with over 55%. The UMP took a little 26.5%, with the Greenies not far behind on 18.1%. In Dunkerque, the Socialist Michel Delebarre won by the first round, with 57.5% largely defeating the UMP candidate. The FN, the MoDem, and the Trots also qualified for seats. The other major leftist city, Maubeuge, stayed with the PS by the first round. The UMP held its 3 major cities. In Valenciennes, where the UMP-NC list had the originality of having two cabinet ministers (Letard and Borloo), the UMP won by the first round, with 55.5%. The PS and PCF were in the same percentile ranges, far behind the right. Even larger margin in Cambrai, with 66.2% for the right by the first round. It was closer in Douai, but still to the advantage of the UMP, which took 53.5% in the runoff.

Pas-de-Calais: No cigar for the PS in Arras, where the MoDem held the city by the first round, with 51.24% against 33.9% for the PS. The Greenies also did well. The left held Lens, with 48.4% in a confusing 5-way PS-UMP-DVG-DVG-LCR runoff. The PS incumbent in Bethune lost the runoff narrowly to a DVG candidate. The PS trounced opposition in Boulogne-sur-Mer, once again, with over 71% for the PS by the first round there. In Saint-Omer, the right was defeated by the left, which took 57.8% in the runoff. However, the right avenged the loss by a more impressive gain, from the PCF, in Calais. Natacha Bouchart, UMP, defeated the PCF, in power for 37 years, with 54.02%. She likely took many FN votes from the first round. Talking of the FN, Le Pen’s carpetbagging daughter, Marine, running in Henin-Beaumont under the FN list, was trounced. The UMP was eliminated by the first round, its little 5% not allowing its qualification. The unpopular Socialist incumbent faced a runoff against not only Le Pen & company but a former Socialist, running as the “Republican Alliance”. The PS took 51.9% in the runoff, the FN far behind with 28.83% (up only 0.3% since the first round). The DVG-AR took 19.23%.

Essonne: Manuel Valls, the PS incumbent in Evry, was re-elected as expected. He swept back for another term with 70.3% by the first round, his UMP competitor far behind with 13.9%. No cigar, however, for the PS in Massy, where it had hoped to gain the city from the right. The right won with 57% in the runoff. The left held Viry-Chatillon (53.7%, R1) and Athis-Mons (54.1%, R1) while the right held Savigny-sur-Orge (50.1%, runoff). In Corbeil-Essonnes, where the race had attracted attention because of the UMP Senator and billionaire incumbent Serge Dassault (also involved in some judicial affairs) was at risk to lose his seat to the Communists, who had held the city until 2001. Dassault won narrowly, with 50.7% in the runoff against his PCF rival.

Hauts-de-Seine: Few changes took place in Sarkoland, apart from the usual right-wing civil wars. The PCF held Nanterre by the first round with 56.4%, the MoDem taking a distant second. The UMP ’star candidate’, Rachid Kaci (leader of the UMP La Droite Libre faction- a DL like thingee). A few minutes away, in Sarkozy’s Neuilly-sur-Seine, the succession of the retiring UMP incumbent attracted tons of coverage. Firstly, Sarkozy imposed his spokesman David Martinon as the UMP candidate, to the discontent of the local UMP, which ran its own candidate, Jean-Christophe Fromantin (DVD). Then a poll came out showing Fromantin defeating Martinon, and the shit started to hit the fan. Martinon’s ‘colleagues’, including Jean Sarkozy and Arnaud Teulle abandoned him and finally Martinon stepped down. The UMP replaced him with none other than the dissident, Fromantin, but then the official candidate, Arnaud Teulle, became a dissident. Fromantin led the first round with 47.9%, Teulle trailed with 32.1%. The PS candidate took a mere 7.9%. Fromantin won the runoff with 61.7%. In other news, the PS lost the seat(s) it had held since 1947. In Levallois-Perret, Patrick Balkany and his wife (number 2 on his list) were re-elected with 51.5% in the first round. In Boulogne-Billancourt, the UMP candidate came out victorious of the right-wing civil war with 44.3% in the runoff. Another civil war in Puteaux, this time a bit… uhm… different. The incumbent, Joelle Ceccaldi-Raynaud was re-elected with 53% in the runoff, defeating an Indie, a Socialist and a DVD list led by none other than her dad, Charles, former mayor, who took only 7.8% in the runoff. Daddy refused to talk to her daughter in the runup to the runoff. The Hauts-de-Seine UMP takes the award for most bizarre. In Colombes, gained by the RPF Nicole Goueta in 2001, and joined in 2008 by Rama Yade, the left defeated the duo, taking 53.6% in a mediatized runoff. The UMP won Chaville from the PS in a UMP-PS-MoDem runoff. In the cantonales elections, Jean Sarkozy was elected with ‘only’ 51% in Neuilly-Sud by the first round, the MoDem taking an honourable second.

Ville de Paris: Very polarized between left and right, Paris continued this polarization and the ’swing sectors’ didn’t swing much at all. Overall, Delanoe was easily re-elected, his lists doing well enough to win Paris-3, 11, and 19 by the first round. The swing sector of Paris-1 did not fall to the PS, the UMP was re-elected with 52.8%. Held by the Greens, the Green list led by the incumbent took second with 29.9% in the first round, behind the PS. The union of the PS with the Greenies meant that the Green incumbent took the top spot, and won with 68.3% in the runoff. In Paris-3, the PS took 55.9% by the first round, and 61% in the runoff in Paris-4. In Paris-5, the former RPR mayor Jean Tiberi, defeated in 2001, was threatened, and polls, like they had in 2001, showed him defeated by the PS Lynne Cohen-Solal (a sort of rival, she opposes him in every election he’s in). The MoDem’s qualification for the runoff changed the cards a bit, but polls still had him defeated even with the MoDem. The first exit polls showed him defeated 46-44. But they had undersampled dead voters. As the night progressed, the pollsters changed their polls first to 45-45 then to 45-44 for Tiberi. He won with 45% against 44.1% for the PS. The MoDem lost votes and fell to 10.9%. He must’ve taken 100% of the dead vote again perhaps? In Paris-6, the UMP incumbent took 56% in the runoff. Led by Rachida Dati, the UMP won Paris-7 easily, taking 57.7% in a three-way UMP-PS-MoDem runoff. The right was divided in Paris-8, with the outgoing mayor Francis Lebel leading a DVD-UMPd list against the official UMP candidate, Pierre Lellouche. Lebel won with 48.6% in the runoff. In the 9th, the PS took 63% in the runoff, 75% in the 10th, and 55.1% in the first round in Paris-11. Paris-12, a swing sector (the PS had narrowly gained the seat representing the 12th in 2007), the UMP candidate was the ex-MoDem Jean-Marie Cavada and his number 2 was Christine Lagarde, Minister of Finances. The PS did excellently in the runoff, taking 64.8% in the runoff. The 12th sector is now almost in line with its other left-wing neighbors. In Paris-13, the PS took 69.9% in the runoff and 57.4% in a three-way (PS-UMP-MoDem) Paris-14 runoff. Another swing sector that would’ve given the left a huge majority if they had won it, Paris-15, stayed with the UMP. The PS led the first round with 35.9% and the UMP trailed with 33.9%. A DVD list took 13.5%. Smart enough to understand that staying in meant defeat, the DVD merged with the UMP list and they won with 52.7%. In Paris-16, the most right-wing sector of the capital, the UMP narrowly won by the first round with 51.7% against 17.1% for the PS. Two DVD list took in total 16.5% and the MoDem had 8.6%. Paris-17, the base of the UMP candidate Francoise de Panafieu, stayed on the right narrowly with 52.8% for Panafieu in the runoff. Next door in the 18th, the PS sweeped the runoff with 72.5%. It won Paris-19 by the first round, with 52.1%. Paris-20, easily the most left-wing sector saw a battle between the outgoing DVG mayor and the PS candidate in the runoff. The UMP took only 7.24% here, behind the Greenies, DVD, and the MoDem. The PS won with 69.5% against 30.5% for the DVG incumbent. Status-quo prevailed overall, with the swing sectors staying with their masters. Jean Tiberi called his victory a “defeat for Delanoe”. Perhaps Cohen-Solal will have to wait until Tiberi retires and/or dies to win Paris-5 for the PS.

Seine-et-Marne: The leader of the parliamentary UMP, J-F Cope was re-elected in Meaux with 67.7% by the first round, an excellent score for the UMP. It was narrower in Melun, but the UMP won with 48.1%. No cookie for the UMP in the swing city of Chelles, where the PS won with 51.4% by the first round. The PCF held Champs-sur-Marne with 63.5% in the first round while the PS held Pontault-Combault (69.5%, R1) and Savigny-le-Temple (53.9%, runoff). The PS held the general council and the right failed to pick it up, after losing it in 2004.

Seine-Saint-Denis: Most of the changes in the 93 took place between the left-wing majorities, for the most part. In Montreuil, Dominique Voynet, the 2007 Green candidate for President picked up the city from the CAP-PCF mayor Jean-Pierre Brard with 54.2%. She perhaps picked up most of the UMP voters, eliminated in the first round and perhaps a few Trots (6.3% in the first round). The PCF held Bobigny by the first round, with 54.8% in the runoff. Same thing in Le Blanc-Mesnil, with the PCF winning 43.9% in a very close runoff with the UMP. In Saint-Denis, the Communists came out on top of the PCF-PS primary, with 51.12% in the first round, against 30.6% for the PS. Talking of primaries, the only gain PCF > PS at the municipal level was in Aubervilliers, where the PS won with 41.5% in the runoff against 38.5% for the incumbent PCF mayor. The Modem took 12.2% and the UMP won barely 7.8%. The NC held Drancy with 69.5% in the first round, increasing its score on 2001. Only notable PS gain from the right was in Aulnay-sous-Bois, where the PS defeated the deputy-mayor (and also unemployed, as he touches unemployment cash) with 50.4%. The PS ended up with 16 seats against 13 for the PCF in the general council, and the Socialists gained the department, in Communist hands since the creation of departmental government. Total PS +1 (does not include 1 Green gain and 1 PS gain from the PCF)

Val-de-Marne: No major changes here. The PS held Creteil by the first round with 54.2% and the reds held Vitry-sur-Seine with 100% (the PS, qualified for the runoff, merged with the reds). The reds also held Champigny-sur-Marne by the first round. The UMP gained Saint-Maur from a retiring DVD mayor in a UMP-DVD-PS runoff. The UMP also held Maisons-Alforts with over 63% by the first round. The PCF held the general council.
Val-d’Oise: A former Communist city, Argenteuil fell to the right in 2001. The PS won it back in 2008, with 50.6% in the runoff, defeating the incumbent. The UMP, however, held Goussainville with 50.08% in the runoff and a few votes difference. The UMP held Franconville (54.58%, R1) and Pontoise (52.2%, R1). The PS held neighboring Cergy with 51.8%. In the east of the department, the PS held Sarcelles with 68.9% in the first round. The PS gained the general council from the UMP. Total PS +1

Ardennes: No luck for the right in Charleville-Mézières, up there on the UMP targets list. The PS incumbent Claudine Ledoux took a large 55.8% in the runoff. Relatively easy re-election for the Socialists in Sedan (where the Franco-Prussian battle of Sedan took place) too, with the PS taking 51.12% in the runoff, in addition to a DVD list and a DVG list. Exact same lists in Revin for the runoff, and exact same victor- the PS, with 51%. The right held the southwestern city of Rethel, taking 57.5% against 25.8% for the left and 16.8% for another DVD list.

Aube: A clear first round victory in Troyes for the UMP Francois Baroin with 50.42% against the PS’s 23.22% and the MoDem’s 11.92%. The FN won 8.74% and the Greenies took 5.7%. A weirder situation in Romilly-sur-Seine with the retirement of the Left Radical mayor (who had governed with strange bedfellows- centrists and the right). For the left, the Communist Joë Triché (Romilly was a PCF city until the PRG gain in 1989) and the Left Radical Sarah Auzols fought it out, with Joë Triché taking 39.9% in the first round against 33.7% for the UMP. Auzols took 26.5%. The Communists, confident of a gain, lost the runoff against the UMP with 45.9% against 54.1% for the UMP. Total UMP +1

Marne: Defeated narrowly in 2001 by the then-UDF incumbent (retiring in 08), Adeline Hazan MEP got a second try. And a good one. The right left divided between two strong candidates- two former ministers- Renaud Dutreil (UMP) and Catherine Vautrin (UMPd-MoDem). Hazan picked up on the division, like in 2001 (she had led the first round then) but more convincingly. She took 42.1% against 25.2% for Vautrin. Dutreil took a mere 23% and merged with Vautrin’s list. However, Dutreil’s apparent reluctance of merging with Vautrin cost the right the city. Hazan took 56.1% in a relatively right-wing city. The right was successful in Châlons, capitalizing on the left’s division. The UMP took 52.8% in the runoff. The right also held Epernay (53.1%) but lost Vitry-le-Francois in a landslide. The PS took 51.23% by the first round against a divided right. Total PS +2

Haute-Marne: A small wooded department, the Haute-Marne is very conservative despite the existence of now-declining industrial and working-class areas. In Chaumont, held by a DVG mayor since 1989, Luc Chatel, a Secretary of State in the Fillon government (UMP) won the city by the first round, taking 56.2%. The right also gained Langres from another DVG by the first round with 52.32%. The UMP held Saint-Dizier easily with 66.34% by the first round. Total UMP/DVD +2

Bourgogne (PS/DVG +3)

Cote d’Or: Rebsamen held Dijon marvelously by the first round, with 56.2% against 36.44% for the UMP. Rebsamen had gained the city from the RPR in 2001, but much more narrowly. Ironically, one of the songs played at his victory had an artist none other than Carla Bruni-Sarkozy! The right held its stronghold of Beaune with over 66.7% in the first round. In the general council, a deadlock between left and right led to the election of Francois Sauvadet (NC) as President.

Nievre: A stronghold for the left in a region that leans to the right (overall), the Nievre is more importantly Mitterrandie. While the left’s domination of the department is still close to total, it’s hold has lessened a bit since the end of the Mitterrand era and dynasty in the 1990s. In fact, the PS won Nevers again, but lost a bit over 1% over 2001, taking 52.33%. The left, however, took Cosne-Cours-sur-Loire, the most right-wing city, from the right with 49.7% in a three-way runoff. Total PS +1

Saone-et-Loire: Talk of a double disaster for Perben! Trounced in Lyon (see below), his party lost Chalon, the city he had left to run in Lyon. The PS took 54.5% by the first round, largely defeating the right’s candidate. The right did hold Macon, with 50.5% in the first round. No success for the right in Montceau-les-Mines (PS 53.31%, R1), Autun (DVG 47.12%, R1) and Le Creusot (DVG, 66.67%, R1). In the general council, gained by the PS in 2004, the President Christophe Sirugue preferred leaving the department’s presidency to become mayor of Chalon. Instead, the Socialist ‘leader’ in Saone-et-Loire, Arnaud Montebourg, ran in the canton of Montret in order to solidify his local implantations after a close call in the 2007 elections. [rant]Despite being strongly opposed to dual office-holding and currently in a crusade for a 6th Republic, Montebourg needed to turn on his word to save his reputation as the PS leader. And he did. Sadly. He won in Montret and became President of the General Council. I guess he’s not against triple offices?[/rant]. Total PS +1

Yonne: Two big deceptions for the right in its Yonne stronghold: firstly, the PS holding Auxerre with 52.4% by the first round, and secondly the loss of Sens to the left (51.77% for the DVG list). Total DVG +1

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