Predictions News Endorse Atlas Weblogs Results Forum Polls

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Franco-Canadian Politics Blog

French Locals 2008: Lorraine

April 20th, 2008 by hashemite

Lorraine (PS +3)

Meurthe-et-Moselle: An industrial region, Meurthe-et-Moselle is split between the right and the left quite evenly. In Nancy, the Radical-UMP mayor Andre Rossinot, in office since 1983, kept his post with 50.74% in the runoff, the PS candidate took 40.56% and a DVG-PSd list took 8.71%. In the suburban area of Nancy, the left gained Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy with 51.87% in the runoff and held Villers-les-Nancy with 55.36%, despite right-wing hopes at a pickup.  Nadine Morano, now a Secretary of State in the Fillon government, was defeated in Toul, coming third behind the PS incumbent (43.7%) and a DVD list taking just 26.26%.  The right, however, gained Luneville from the left with 51.12%, despite a  strong DVD list with about 12% of the votes.  In the right-wing city of Pont-a-Mousson, the UMP Henry Lemoine kept his spot with over 55% in the runoff.  In Longwy, a city located along the Belgian and Luxembourg border, and also traditionally left-wing, the UMP scored an upset over a divided left, and took 43.73% and defeated the PS, which had 42.76%. Total UMP +1

Meuse: In Bar-le-Duc, the left scored an upset victory over the incumbent UMP mayor, taking 51.9% of the votes in a close runoff. In addition, the left held Commercy very easily, with over 74% in the first round. The right, however, did hold Verdun with nearly 53% in the runoff. The left also made important gains in the cantons, but the DVD president held his seat, with the support a large group of Independent councillors. Total PS +1

Moselle: In office since 1971, the elderly DVD mayor of Metz, Jean-Marie Rausch faced three strong opposition candidates. Marie-Jo Zimmermann (UMP), Nathalie Griesbeck (MoDem), and Dominique Gros (PS). Gros led the first round, with 34.04%, Rausch was in second with 24.16%. Zimmermann took 16.68% and Griesbeck took 14.69%. Griesbeck and Zimmermann merged their lists, leading to the UMP switching its support to Rausch. Gros won the runoff with 48.28%, Rausch far behind with 27.41% and Zimmermann with 24.31%. Gros is thus the first left-wing mayor of Metz since 1848! The left also gained Thionville, with 51.5%, and Forbach, with 60.05%. The UMP held Saint-Avold (54.3%) and Sarreguemines (56.41%, first round). Total PS +3

Vosges: Polarized between left and right, the situation remained the same. On the left, the PS held Saint-Die with 50.83% and Gerardmer with 68.74%. On the right, the UMP held Epinal with 55.7% by the first round and 45.6% in Remiremont (in a UMP-DVD-PCF runoff).

French Locals 2008: Franche-Comté, Alsace

April 19th, 2008 by hashemite

Franche-Comté (PS +2)

Doubs: After a big loss for the PS in Montbeliard in 2001, the Socialists have taken their revenge. They narrowly defeated the UMP incumbent 44.2-43.7. In Besancon, a solid city for the left (in Radical, SFIO, or PS hands since 1940 except 1950-1953), the PS incumbent, supported by the PCF but most importantly the Greenies (they had taken over 16% in 2001) won a first-round re-election with over 56%; the UMP far behind and the MoDem a bit below 10%. The right held on to Pontarlier, by the first round, the incumbent taking 60% to the left’s 25% and the Greenie’s 14%. Total PS +1

Jura: Despite a crisis in the local toy industry, the UMP incumbent in Lons-le-Saunier won a large re-election, much larger than expected. He took 55.5% to 35.4% for the PS, a DVD list taking 9.1%. In Saint-Claude, the right-wing incumbent lost his seat by a mere 5 votes (50.07-49.93). He better not find 6 UMP voters who abstained in the runoff! In Dole, where Dominique Voynet was trounced as the Green candidate in 2001, the UMP held onto its seat, with 46.92% to 40.71% for the PS. In the general council, which could have swung to the PS, it finally came down to a DVD to replace the UMP president. Total PS +1

Haute-Saone: The fronts remained stable, with no net gains in the 3 major cities. In Vesoul, the UMP incumbent took over 60% in the first round while the left held Lure (72.15% in first round) and Hericourt (75.6% in first round) and the presidency of the general council.

Belfort: After losing the seat in 2002 and failing to win it back in 2007, the MRC incumbent in Belfort (not Chevenement, he had stepped down a year prior) was at risk. In addition, the MRC-PS relations were not perfect. However, the climate was favourable, and the right was divided. Butzbach (MRC) won with 48.3%, the UMP had 38.1% and the DVD with 13.7%.

Alsace (PS +2)

Bas-Rhin: After losing the city in 2001, the Socialists had hopes to win Strasbourg back in 2008, and they did. With Roland Ries, the Socialists led both rounds by many points. In the first round, Ries took 43.9% against 33.9% for Fabienne Keller (UMP). The Greens came third, with 6.4% and the MoDem took only 5.7%. The FN collapsed to 2.84% and the far-right Alsatian regionalist party Alsace d’abord took 2.2%. Ries scored a big victory in the runoff, taking the lot of the Green and MoDem voters. He won with 58.33%, Keller far behind with barely 41.67%. In the Strasbourg suburbs, the left was able to hold its ground or gain. In Schiltigheim, the Socialists gained the city from the local centrist social-democratic party Mouvement démocratie alsacienne of Alfred Muller (in office since 1977, but retiring). In Illkirch-Graffenstaden, the PS incumbent Jacques Bigot almost broke 70% by the first round, surprising when the city gave Sarkozy over 60% of the vote in May. In the conservative strongholds outside of Strasbourg, the right held its ground well, as expected. In Haguenau, no surprise, a DVD emerged the winner of a four-way runoff to succeed a retiring incumbent. In Selestat, the UMP incumbent won with 54% (exactly!). Total PS +2

Haut-Rhin: Elected in 2001 as a Socialist, Jean-Marie Bockel (member of the Fillon government) won re-election narrowly as a Gauche Moderne incumbent, with the support of the UMP. The city of Mulhouse, used to centrist social democratic mayors - the Social Democratic Party, or PSD, was a member of the UDF - such as Emile Muller decided to keep Bockel, who fits the qualities of centrist social democracy. Leading the first round with 40.35%, Bockel was trailed by his former PS colleagues who took 32.34% and Patrick Binder of the FN, with 10.31%. A MPF candidate took 7.75%, most likely traditional UMP voters not fond of voting for a former Socialist. The runoff proved tighter, with Bockel taking 43.2% and the PS closely trailing with 42.6%. The FN took 14.3%. At first announced as a DVD gain from UMP on election night, Colmar kept its UMP mayor in a close UMP-DVD runoff, the UMP incumbent taking 50.35%. The UMP was re-elected in Saint-Louis with 45.1% in a four-way runoff (2 right, 2 left).

French Locals 2008: Rhone-Alpes

April 18th, 2008 by hashemite

Rhone-Alpes (PS +8)

Ain: Bourg-en-Bresse loves change. In 1988, it elected a UDF mayor. In 1995, it elected a Socialist. In 2001, it elected a RPR mayor who died shortly before the 2008 election (he wasn’t running for re-election though). Naturally, the Socialists gained the city in 2008. Debat, the PS candidate won with 55.37% by the first round, the UMP far behind with 34.8%. The left also won Amberieu-en-Bugey, the winning Union of the Left list taking a bit over 42% in a 4-way runoff (2 left, 2 right). No cigar, however, for the left in Oyonnax or Bellegarde-sur-Valserine. The right succeeded a retiring rightist incumbent, with 46.06% in a 3-way runoff; and the UMP incumbent took 58.22% in Bellegarde, despite leaning left-wing in national elections. Another unexpected change happened in the cantonales, where the left won a majority of seats and picked up the department, despite the Ain being strong right-wing. Total PS +2

Ardeche: Generally left-wing, the left obtained mixed results. In Privas, the PS incumbent took over 60% in the first round (only 2 candidates there though). In Annonay, with the UMP incumbent, the left scored a huge pickup with over 68% in the first round. In a 4-way runoff in Aubenas, which opposed the united right (UMP incumbent) to three lefties- a DVG, a PS, and a Commie. The UMP won with 52%, the DVG taking 21%. In Guilherand, the UMP won 62% in the first round. The right gained Tournon-sur-Rhone from the PRG (retiring) taking 52.8% in the runoff.

Drome: In Valence, the chef-lieu of the Drome, where the UMP incumbent was retiring. Valence, a good city for the Greenies (they held the seat in the 1997-2002 legislature), the Greenies won 19.3% in the first round, providing an excellent reserve for the Socialist candidate who opposed the UMP candidate, first in the first round. Alain Maurice, PS, took 51.7% in the runoff, obviously dominating the Green vote. The right held Montelimar with 52%, and over 64% in Pierrelatte. A closer runoff for the PS in Romans, where the left won by less than 100 votes in a 4-way PS-UMP-MoDem-FN runoff. Total PS +1

Isere: Despite their hopes for a good season, the left failed to gain many of its targets. In Grenoble, Michel Destot (PS) faced an easy runoff against a young UMP candidate and a Greenie (deciding to stay in, seeing that Destot’s place wasn’t at risk). Destot won 48%, the UMP far behind with only 29.5% (Destot had rallied the MoDem, but also some Sarkozy-supporters). The Greens did exceptionally well, with 22.5%. In Voiron, the left gained the city as predicted, with over 58%. Success for the left in Bourgoin-Jallieu, holding with 56.6%. Threatened in Villefontaine, the right stood its ground by less than 20 votes, holding the city with 2,554 votes against 2,536 for the left. Very narrow in Vienne too, with the right holding its ground with 46.34% against 45.66% for the left. Total PS +1

Loire: A working-class department, the left reversed its recent loses by some big gains. Firstly, Saint-Etienne, with the defeat of the Radical-UMP mayor Michel Tholliere by the PS Maurice Vincent. Leading the first round, Tholliere (37.86%) needed to get the votes of the MoDem Gilles Artigues (20.23%) to beat Vincent (33.68%). Artigues stayed in, but many voters voted utile (useful) and went for Vincent, who won convincingly 46.11-41.63. Artigues was left with crumbs, 12.27%. The right also suffered in Roanne, suffering defeat to the left, who won with 52.08%. Disaster for the right also in Montbrison, where the left won with 51.4% by the first round, capitalizing on the right-wing division. Total PS +3

Rhone: Dominique Perben lost his gamble to win Lyon, a city which had voted for Sarkozy, but had elected a left-wing mayor, Gerard Collomb in 2001 (the right blamed a road accident, aka division, for the loss). Perben was able to rally the moderate UMP right with the local DLC/Milloniste right of Charles Millon (divided in 2001); but accusations of carpetbagging did no good. Collomb was also very popular and had rallied some centrists. The first polls in 2007 showed a 52-48 runoff in favour of Collomb, but Collomb ended up with over 50% in the first round and a truly historic first round re-election. He humiliated the right (already humiliated in 2001) and defeated Perben himself in Lyon-3 (by the first round) where the left won 52.82% to Perben’s 30.02%. Of 9 arrondissements, there were only 3 runoffs, in which the right nonetheless held its 2 incumbent sector mayors. In the suburb of Villeurbanne, the left easily won despite tough UMP opposition. The Communists held their stronghold of Venissieux. In the more right-wing north part of the Rhone, in Villefranche-sur-Saone, the UMP won despite being faced with a tough battle with a DVD candidate. In the general council, Michel Mercier (ex-MoDem) held his seat with the support from the UMP.

Savoie: Bernadette Laclais, the PS incumbent in Chambery, benefited from the general climate to hold her seat with a bit over 50% by the first round. Same scenario, but more surprising in Albertville, the host of the 1992 winter games, where the PS gained the city by a bit more than 100 votes. The UMP held Aix-les-Bains with over 62% in the first round, in addition to 9.6% going to a DVD list. In the general council, the former minister Herve Gaymard (UMP), who had resigned a few years ago because of a housing scandal, succeeded another right-wing incumbent. Total PS +1

Haute-Savoie: The UMP wanted to put its hand on Annecy, an historic centrist city, but failed horribly. Jean-Luc Rigaut, a Nouveau Centre incumbent, won re-election by the first round with 52.44%, the UMP far behind in second with 17.7%. The PS won only 15.9%. The left held Annemasse, with a bit over 52 and the UMP held Thonon-les-Bains. In Cluses, in a UMP-DVD-FN runoff, the UMP prevailed with 40.9%. The DVD took 38.7% and the FN won 20.5%.

French Locals 2008: PACA

April 16th, 2008 by hashemite

PACA (PS +1)

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence: Still relatively close to the Socialists, the left held their position(s) well. In Digne-les-Bains, the incumbent DVG mayor was easily re-elected, with over 60%. In Manosque, a bit closer race for the UMP incumbent, who ended up winning 52-48. The Socialists held the general council, under the leadership of Jean-Louis Bianco, a top official in the 2007 Royal campaign.

Hautes-Alpes: In office since 2007 only, the PRG mayor of Gap, was supported for re-election by the UMP. He defeated a Socialist and DVD list in the runoff, taking 44.7% to the PS 43%. The NC mayor of Embrun was re-elected by the first round, barely, taking 50.5% against 30.6% to the PS, 14.4% to a DVD list and 4.5% to the MoDem. In the eastern city of Briancon, generally favourable to the right (despite the constituency having a PRG MP), the UMP incumbent Alain Bayrou was re-elected with 52%. After losing it in 2004 to the elderly DVG Auguste Treupheme, the UMP gained (outright) the department.

Alpes-Maritimes: In Nice, one of the country’s largest cities, and also a right-wing/far-right place, the battle involved two generations of UMP candidates. Firstly, the incumbent, the former FN deputy Jacques Peyrat, running again against the official UMP candidate; and the long-time Sarkozyste and official UMP candidate Christian Estrosi. Other candidates included Patrick Allemand (PS), Patrick Mottard (DVG), Lydia Schenardi (FN) and Herve Cael (MoDem-PRG-MEI). Estrosi passed the first round with 35.8% to 23.1% to Peyrat; Allemand took 22.3%. After obtaining nearly 12% in the 2001 locals, the FN collapsed to 4.2%, despite the department having the reputation of being strong for the FN. Estrosi was elected, with 41.33% to Allemand’s 33.2% (the left took 41.3% in 2001). Peyrat ended up with 25.5%. In the department’s other cities, all held by the right, the only real trouble was a plethora of DVD dissident lists here and there. In Cagnes-sur-Mer, the UMP won by the first round with 56%; the FN took 11.8% and won 2 seats. The Socialists, who came in second, and the MoDem list also won seats. Same scenario in Antibes, where the UMP took 59.3% by the first round. A DVD list came second with 15.9%, the PCF in third with 13.1% and the PS with a mere 11.7%. The presence of 4 right-wing lists in the first round and 3 in the runoff gave the race attention it would’ve never got otherwise. They even did a poll! The UMP incumbent topped the first round with 37%, followed by two DVD lists (one at 23.7%, a second at 20.8%). The PS took 10.43%. Brochand won the runoff with 40.7%, a DVD list followed with 37.1%. The PS took 11.7% and the other DVD list collapsed to 10.5%. The UMP won Grasse with 51% in the first round.

Bouches-du-Rhone: Originally considered a shoo-in for re-election, Jean-Claude Gaudin, the UMP mayor of Marseille saw his race tighten to the point that his seat was in jeopardy. The election came down to one sector, Marseille-3. The PS list leader, Jean-Noel Guerini was standing here, no doubt understanding the importance of the sector. However, the UMP’s Renaud Muselier won the sector, and the election, with 51.4%. The left, with Patrick Menucci gained Marseille-1 with 50.7%. No other sectors changed hands. The right held onto its strongholds in the south of the city, with Gaudin winning his 4th sector with 52.1% in the first round. The right won 58.7% in the 5th, and 54.4% in the 6th. In the left-wing sectors of the north, the Socialist held on well, as expected. It won Marseille-2 with 55% in the first round, and won 54.1% in Marseille-7 in a runoff with the UMP and the FN. With the Communist incumbent standing down in Marseille-8, the Socialists ran one of their own, and she won 52.3% by the first round. The seat representing that sector, in PCF hands since 1936, was lost to the PS in 2007. The FN, who had hoped to be kingmakers in Marseille failed to do so, being left in only one runoff already solid for the PS (Marseille-7). The race, of course, was close, the new council is now 51 UMP, 49 PS, 1 FN. In the grand Marseille, the parties held their ground. In La Ciotat, the UMP won with 53.8% by the first round, the PCF in a very far second. In Aubagne, the PCF incumbent, after receiving the support of the MoDem, fought off tough UMP opposition to win the runoff with 53.2%. In Marignane, held by Daniel Simonpieri (UMP, elected as MNR in 2001), the right-wing majority changed faces, with Simonpieri being defeated by a DVD candidate and a Socialist. The DVD list took over 51% in the runoff. In Bruno Megret’s city of Vitrolles, held by his equally-corrupt wife Catherine until 2002, and then won by the Socialists in a by-election in 2002 (Mrs. Megret’s re-election having been declared invalid), the left held the town. Guy Obino won 61.3% in the runoff. The FN was eliminated by the first round with 9.7%. The left held Martigues, with 57.6% in the first round largely trouncing the right, who had hoped to win the city. In Istres, a DVG list replaced the outgoing DVG mayor. In Arles, the Communist incumbent crushed the right by the first round, taking 57.7% against 18.5% for the UMP. In Salon-de-Provence, a top UMP target, the PS narrowly held the city with 53% in the runoff. In Aix-en-Provence, the UMP incumbent Maryse Joissains-Masini saw her seat threatened. She narrowly passed the first round with 33.8%, the PS taking nearly 30% and a MoDem list led by her former councillor took 20%. A poll saw her defeated in the runoff, but she passed. 44.28% against 42.94% for the PS. The MoDem’s supporter abandoned the MoDem, leaving it with 12.8%. Overall, a bad result for the right, which would’ve been disastrous if they had lost Marseille and/or Aix. But they failed to win in cities where Sarkozy had won, sometimes won big.

Var: Totally locked up for the right, the right held generally good. In Toulon, which had elected a FN (later MNR) mayor in 1995 and booted him out in 2001 by the first round in favour of Hubert Falco (DL, now UMP), the city renewed Falco easily. He won by the first round with 65.2% against 14.1% for the PS. The FN took 6.55% and one seat. A bit closer for the UMP in La Garde, where is nonetheless won 52.4-42.62 by the first round. An Indie took the rest. Division within the right in Hyeres, where the incumbent was standing down, resulted in the election of a DVD mayor with only 34.22% in the runoff, the UMP taking 30.6% and another DVD taking 19.41. Easy re-election for the UMP in Frejus, with 62.7% against 24.81% for the PS and 12.5% for the FN. Same thing in neighboring Saint-Raphael, with 62.9% for the UMP in the first round, the PS and MoDem far behind. After a very narrow gain by the UMP in 2001, the right held Draguignan with 44.13% in the runoff, despite the presence of a DVD dissident list. In Six-Fours-les-Plages, the UMP incumbent held his seat with 53.7% in the first round, the MoDem beating the PS for third place. The only really disputed city in the whole department of the Var, La-Seyne-sur-Mer (in PCF hands until recently) was gained by the PS narrowly: 50.65% against 49.13% for the incumbent. Total PS +1

Vaucluse: After defeating PS star-candidate Elisabeth Guigou in a landslide in 2001, the race in 2008 was much, much closer in Avignon for Marie-Josee Roig. She won with 51.9% overall. In Orange, where the FN mayor Jacques Bompard had won by the first round in 2001, but later switched to the MPF (to possibly play the role of FN-lite), the UMP thought they could defeat him. So they ran a candidate. Who got eaten alive. Only 12.05% against 60.97% for Bompard (superior to his 2001 score in fact). It doesn’t seem like voters in Orange want to return to democracy yet. In Carpentras, the third city of the Vaucluse, division proved fatal to the right, who ran 2 lists in the runoff. The PS got 38.97%, the UMP incumbent took 35.91%. A killer list, DVD, took 17.46% and defeated the right. The FN took 7.65%. In Apt, another gain for the left, taking a whooping 60.8% against the incumbent in the runoff. The right took one city, Pertuis, to cancel out one of the other gains. 47.44% for the UMP, the left taking 35.25%. A DVD list took the rest. Another victory for the right in Bollene, for a gain from the left by the MPF Marie-Claude Bompard, the wife of Jacques. She took 47.95%, taking many votes from the electorate of the official UMP candidate.

French Locals 2008: Languedoc-Roussillon

April 15th, 2008 by hashemite

Languedoc-Roussillon (PS +3)

Aude: Despite being one of France’s most solid Socialist departments, the right nevertheless controls Carcassone, the department’s major city. And they held it despite the Socialist hopes to score an upset. It was close, with 50.22% of the runoff vote favouring the UMP incumbent. However, in the 37-year old right-wing city of Narbonne, the Socialists scored a large upset win, taking 57% to the DVD incumbent’s 43%. In Limoux, the task of holding the city was quite easy for the PS, who took 100%. In Castelnaudary, the Socialists crushed right-wing hopes at a pickup, and won 67% in the first round. In the general council, the Socialists barely extended their already enormous majority. Former presidential candidate Gerard Schivardi (PT) kept his seat in the general council and his seat as Mayor of Mailhac. Total PS +1

Gard: Formerly a Communist region, with the PCF bases in the Cevennes and Petite Camargue, the Gard is slowly shifting to the right. In Nimes, the UMP mayor Jean-Paul Fournier handily defeated the former PCF mayor Alain Clary 54-46. Same scenario in Ales, where Max Roustan (UMP) won by the first round, taking 54% to 23.8% to the PCF, 16.7% to the PS and 5.7% to the FN (the FN used to be relatively big in the Gard, up till 2007 etc). The right held Villeneuve-les-Avignons (58%, R1), Beaucaire (DVD gain from UMP, 41%, R2), Saint-Gilles (42.3%, R2) and Vauvert (50.1%, runoff). The only gain for the left came in Bagnols-sur-Ceze, where the PS took 53.6% in a runoff against a divided right. Total PS +1

Herault: In Montpellier, where some had hoped for a right-wing upset, the left was easily re-elected, so easily that the Greenies declined to support the PS in the runoff because the seat was not in jeopardy. In fact, Helene Mandroux took 51.9% (despite strong Greenies, 18.7%) to 29.5% to the UMP deputy Jacques Domergue. In the suburb of Mauguio, a city where Sarkozy had taken 60% of the vote, the UMP was eliminated by the first round to finish the runoff with a DVG (incumbent)-PS runoff. The right held Luniel, the Communist Sete (despite some saying it was fragile for them), Agde, and Beziers.

Lozere: Despite being administratively part of the Languedoc-Roussillon, Lozere has a political behaviour closer to that of the Cantal or other southern and Catholic regions of the Massif Central. Nevertheless, the left has a small foothold in Mende and the 1st constituency (usually not enough to win). It capitalized on the retirement of the MoDem incumbent there to gain the city for the first time since World War II. Alain Bertrand (PS) took 51.5% in the runoff, defeating the UMP candidate. The right held Marvejols with 44.8% in a runoff against the PS and the MoDem, and held Saint-Chely-d’Apcher in a DVD (inc)-PS-UMP runoff. Total PS +1

Pyrenees-Orientales: Despite the indications by polls that the election in Perpignan would not be close and that the UMP incumbent Jean-Paul Alduy would have no difficulties for re-election, he did have difficulties… and they continue today. In the first round, Alduy won 38.9% to 20.2% to the PS (plus another 15.1% to a DVG list). The FN took 12.3% and qualified for the runoff (they had not done so in 2001 due to a MNR winning 3.7% to the FN’s 9.3%). With the DVG candidate resigning in order to support the Socialist candidate, the race got closer. Alduy ended up winning with 45.48% to 44.11% to the PS, the FN losing votes to be left with 10.4%. Then the stories started. They caught a returning officer with ballots stuffed in his socks. The Socialists called the vote rigged and a symbolic manifestation with socks took place outside the town hall. Alduy was elected mayor by the council (not without some arguments), but the affair is with the courts now. The Socialists want to hold a re-vote. Apart from that, the UMP mayor in Canet-en-Roussillon was easily re-elected, but the UMP attempts to win back the general council failed.

Next: PACA

French Locals 2008: Midi-Pyrenees

April 14th, 2008 by hashemite

Mid-Pyrenees (PS +9)

Ariège: In the Radical-Socialist stronghold of Ariège, which was already quite left-wing before the elections, the situation changed very little. In Pamiers (northern city in the 2nd constituency, the most right-wing one), held by a UDF-MoDem incumbent, the left was unsuccessful in their attempts to gain; possibly because of vote splitting (a Greenie qualified for the runoff and maintained themselves). Trigano, the incumbent, narrowly squeaked by with a bit over 50%. In Foix, the department’s prefecture, the Socialist incumbent faced a tough battle, not against the right of course, but against the left! He was nonetheless re-elected, with 44.5% to 37.1% for a DVG list and 9.2% to a PCF list. The right got last and 9.1%. In the general council, only one seat changed hands- from PS to DVG. The Socialists hold 18 of 22 seats (+1 DVG), the right has a total of 3 (2 UMP, 1 DVD).

Aveyron: The only department that is not of Radical tradition and still strongly Catholic, the Aveyron is also the most right-wing department in the region. However, the left has been making important progress as of late, and continued this in the locals. In Millau, Jacques Godfrain was defeated, with the left taking 54% in the runoff to his mere 38.1% (a DVD list took an additional 7.9%) . In Rodez, the department’s main city, it was the same scenario. With the UMP incumbent Marc Censi stepping down and the right divided between two lists, the scene was perfect for the Socialist Christian Teyssedre, who won by the first round with 52.5%. In third, the UMP took 15.5%. The city has never had a Socialist mayor since the 1960s. Only in Villefrance-de-Rouergue, the right slipped back for another term by the first round with 51.5%. Two left-wing lists and a MoDem list took the rest. The general council stayed with the UMP, but with the long-time President (since 1976) Jean Puech being replaced. Total PS +2

Haute-Garonne: Voters in Toulouse voted to end an inconsistency. Despite voting strongly for the left in national elections (57.6% for Royal in the runoff), the right had held the city since 1971. Even in the left-wing landslide of 1977, the Socialist hadn’t won the city back. Well, they did in 2008, albeit narrowly. In the first round, the UMP incumbent Jean-Luc Moudenc pulled ahead with 42% to the Socialist Pierre Cohen’s 39%. The MoDem took a mere 5.9%, but enough to merge (with the UMP) and a Alternatifs (far-left, but not entirely Trot) list led by the former Socialist Francois Simon took 5.42% and the real Trot-list took 5.1%. However, Simon mobilized abstentionists and took 50.42% in the runoff, narrowly defeating Moudenc. The scenario was the same in Saint-Gaudens, the left gained the city with 51.8%; and the same in Muret, where the PS gained the city with 52.07%. The right narrowly held Castanet-Tolosan, a Toulouse suburb. Total PS +3

Gers: Another department generally strong for the left, the PS did relatively well. As expected, it held Auch with over 60% in the runoff and got lucky in Condom, where they defeated the UMP incumbent by 14 votes. Total PS +1

Lot: Another Radical stronghold, the left did extremely well in the locals. In Cahors, the 35-year old PS candidate defeated the UMP incumbent with a whooping 67.1%. In Gourdon, considered favourable for the right, the left took 59.5% against the UMP incumbent. With this, the re-election of the left in Figeac was a formality, and indeed it was. The PS incumbent won re-election by the first round with over 66% of the votes. Total PS +2

Hautes-Pyrenees:  Despite being very left-wing (and another Radical territory), the right in the Hautes-Pyrenees won the local elections. Threatened in Tarbes by the PS deputy and former minister Jean Glavany, the UMP held the city with 54%. In Lourdes, the former city of the centrist Philippe Douste-Blazy, the UMP held it narrowly, with 51%. On the cantonales scene, the Radicals lost the presidency to the PS, who now holds more cantons than the PRG. From 6 presidencies in 2001, the PRG now has a mere 2.

Tarn: A split department, with a Socialist north and a more conservative south, a general status-quo prevailed, with one exception. In Albi, although located in the north, the right won a new term, with 54% in the runoff. However, in Graulhet, the left defeated the right and won with 50.07% in a three-way runoff against 2 right-wing lists. In the two southern conservative cities of Castres and Mazamet, the right won, with 50.32% (+17.5% to a DVD) in Castres and 62.4% in Mazamet. Total PS +1

Tarn-et-Garonne: In the last truly Radical department of the region, with the Radical leadership assumed by the PRG leader and Senator Jean-Michel Baylet, the left was not able to win back its big 2001 loss- Montauban. In Montauban, Brigitte Bareges, elected in 2001 in a PS-RPR-FN runoff on a campaign based on security, she narrowly won a second term with 50.3%. In Moissac, the PS held the city with 54%. However, the left’s division in Castelsarrasin helped re-elect the MoDem Bernard Dagen, with 50.5%. Jean-Michel Baylet was re-elected, for his part, as the department’s head of government.

Next:Languedoc-Rousillon

French Locals 2008: Aquitaine

April 13th, 2008 by hashemite

Aquitaine (PS +2)

Dordogne: A complete political renewal, or almost, took place in Dordogne. Firstly, the most interesting result, the Education Minister, Xavier Darcos, was narrowly defeated by the Socialist Michel Moyrand in his re-election bid in Perigueux. Trailing by the first round (45.25 to 45.7 for Moyrand), despite the MoDem’s support, Darcos lost with 49.58 in the runoff. In Bergerac, the same thing happened- the DVD incumbent was defeated by a Socialist. The right, formerly controlling all 3 major cities, now controls one, Sarlat-la-Caneda. Total PS +2

Gironde: Despite being defeated in June 2007 (in a climate favourable to the right), Juppe was easily re-elected in Bordeaux, with the support of the MoDem, against the regional president Alain Rousset. He was re-elected by the first round, trouncing Rousset 56.62-34.14. The FN lost its only seat on the city council, not passing the 5% threshold (it took 2.6% and fourth). In the suburbs of Libourne (where the son of Mitterrand was re-elected), Merignac, and Pessac; all 3 PS-DVG incumbents were easily re-elected. The left, however, did not hold onto La-Teste, where the UMP gained the city. Total UMP +1

Landes: Despite a status-quo prediction by most, the results in the left-wing stronghold of the Landes was not status-quo, far from it. Dax, projected to remain in UMP hands, was lost to the PS. However, the PS lost Mont-de-Marsan to a MoDem list supported by the UMP. In the general council, Henri Emanuelli (PS) was re-elected, the left (PS-PCF) controls 26 of the department’s 30 seats!

Lot-et-Garonne: After conquering Agen and Villeneuve-sur-Lot in 2001, the Socialists were defeated in Agen by the NC deputy Jean-Dionis du Sejour, who took 52.25% in the runoff. In Villeneuve-sur-Lot however, the Socialists were given another term, with almost 60% in the runoff. The left also held Marmande by the first round. In the general council, the left was able to gain the control of the department with Pierre Camani becoming President. Total NC +1

Pyrenees-Atlantiques: The results in the Pyrenees-Atlantiques were a mixed bag for 3 parties. In Pau, the city where the MoDem leader and 2007 presidential candidate (winning 18.6%) Francois Bayrou had hoped to win, was defeated by a relatively unknown local Socialist leader. She also defeated the Gauche Moderne (ex-PS, supported by the UMP) incumbent, Yves Urieta, in office since the death of the Socialist ‘king’ of Pau, André Labarrère, in 2006. She took 39.76 to 38.81 to Bayrou, Urieta took only 21.42. However, if Urieta had stayed out of the runoff, Bayrou could have been elected. In Orthez, the PS defeated the incumbent with over 60% in the runoff. Same result, but closer in Oloron-Sainte-Marie, where the PS was able to gain with 50.92 in the runoff. On the right-wing cities along the coast, a status-quo more or less prevailed. In Bayonne, the DVD incumbent won in a three-way runoff against a PS candidate and another DVD. In Biarritz, the MoDem incumbent prevailed in a four-way runoff (MoDem, DVD, PS, DVG). In the city of the Interior Minister, Michele Alliot-Marie, she was of course easily re-elected with 55.6 in the first round. The Basque nationalists, though, took nearly 20% of the vote. Finally, in the only major left-wing city on the coast, Hendaye, the right was able to pull off an upset in a three-way with the Basque nationalists (who took nearly 10% in the runoff). The Basque nationalists, however, lost their only seat in the general council to the UMP. In the general council, led by the MoDem, the PS obtained a near-majority of seats, but when it came down to elect the President, a non-breakable tie happened and the UMP Jean Castaings was elected, being the oldest candidate. Total PS +2

Next: Midi

French Locals 2008: Limousin, Auvergne

March 24th, 2008 by hashemite

Limousin (PS +2)

Correze: Chiracquia has fallen. In Tulle, the first secretary of the PS, Francois Hollande was re-elected with over 72% by the first round (compared to only 51% in 2001). The pink tsunami in the department also made two other right-wing cities, Brive-la-Gaillarde and Ussel fall to the left. Ussel is in fact located in the 3rd constituency, the only remaining UMP constituency and Chirac’s stronghold. The tsunami also made the general council of Correze finally switch to the left. The most right-wing department in the Limousin is now left-wing. Total PS +2

Creuse: The re-election of the 3 major city Socialist mayors in the Creuse was a simple formality, the left took 73% in Gueret, 60% in La Souterraine, and “only” 59.75% in Aubusson. All this, of course, by the first round.

Haute-Vienne: In the Limousin’s most left-wing department, where division does not result in a right-wing gain, the left was of course easily re-elected in Limoges and Saint-Junien. Alain Rodet, the PS mayor of Limoges took 56% and the left took 73% in Saint-Junien. All this, of course, by the first round.

Auvergne (=)

Allier: Despite the general council switching to the left, the left didn’t do so good in the communes. In Montlucon, the UMP incumbent was barely re-elected with 50 some percent, with the PS far behind with 24% and the PCF with 21.6%. In Moulins, the UMP incumbent squeaked by, with 46% to 44.4% to the PS. However, there was a dissident DVD list. In Vichy, the UMP incumbent was re-elected with 51.2% in the runoff. The general council, however, gave the left a majority over the right. To compensate for them losing the Seine-Saint-Denis to the PS, the PS gave the Communists the presidency of the Allier department. The PCF had held the department until 2001.

Cantal: In the first constituency, less conservative and more urban than the second, the left, already holding Aurillac, was easily re-elected, with over 63% in the runoff. In the rural second constituency, the right was re-elected with 66% in Saint-Flour, a stronghold for the right.

Haute-Loire: In the stronghold of the catholic right, the right did well, better than in 2001 in fact. Despite the department being a stronghold for the right, Le-Puy-en-Velay is an exception. In 2001, the left gained Le-Puy-en-Velay to the general surprise. However, in 2008, the UMP, led by then-government spokesperson Laurent Wauquiez gained the city by the first round with around 56%. In Yssingeaux, the right-wing incumbent was re-elected with 69%. Total UMP +1

Puy-de-Dome: The bastion of Giscardie, the Puy-de-Dome is still the base of the Auvergne left. Indeed, in Issoire, the left benefited from the presence of two DVD lists to defeat, with a plurality, the incumbent DVD mayor. The total of the right, however, was larger than that of the left. In Riom, the PS took 53.64% by the first round, defeating the UMP and a MoDem at 20%. In Thiers, there was no right-wing list, leaving the battle between the DVG incumbent and the PS candidate. The DVG incumbent took 56%. In Clermont-Ferrand, where the far left is often over to 10% threshold, 2008 was no different. After Brice Hortefeux declined to run in Clermont for the UMP, the competitiveness of the city ended and Serge Godard (PS) was likely to win. He did win, in a four-way runoff. He took 51.7% in the runoff, compared to 22.34% for the UMP and a non-negligible 15.34% for the far-left. The MoDem took 10.6%. In Chamalieres, Giscard’s city now held by his son, his son was re-elected with 57%. Total PS +1

French Locals 2008: Basse-Normandie, Haute-Normandie

March 23rd, 2008 by hashemite

Basse-Normandie (PS +2)

Calvados: After the defeat of the two incumbent UMP/NC deputies last June in Caen, the right was in a comfortable position to take Caen from the hands of Brigitte Le Brethon, the UMP incumbent. The right and before that the centrists had ruled Caen since 1959. However, the pink wave of 2008 benefited the left, which won 56.3% in the runoff, largely defeating the incumbent. In the more conservatives cities of Vire, Bayeux, and Lisieux, right-wing incumbents were easily defeated, despite the fact that Vire and Bayeux were starting to trend towards the left. Total PS +1

Manche: The Manche confirmed its friendliness to incumbents again in 2008, giving the right another term in St-Lo, despite many saying that the right was about to lose it. In the working-class region of Cherbourg-Octeville, the PS incumbent was, of course, easily re-elected. The constituency of Cherbourg-Octeville, the 5th constituency, is in fact the only constituency in the right-wing department to have elected Socialist deputies.

Orne: Despite still being largely dominated by the right in the general council, the Orne’s 2 largest municipalities are now Socialist. The PS successfully held Argentan, with over 60% and the PS gained Alencon by the first round, largely defeating the UMP incumbent. In Flers, the race was not stressful for the DVG incumbent, who won no less than 100%. Total PS +1

Haute-Normandie (PS-PCF-DVG +3)

Eure: The left-wing wave in Seine-Maritime (see below) also spilled into Eure and its prefecture of Evreux. Evreux, formerly held by the UMP Jean-Louis Debre (now president of the Constitutional Council), decided to dump his UMP successor, Jean-Pierre Nicolas in favour of a new DVG mayor, Michel Champredon. Elsewhere, however, no notable change took place, with the right holding onto Bernay and Vernon and the left holding onto Louviers and Val-de-Reuil. Total DVG +1

Seine-Maritime: The left wave really stands out in Seine-Maritime. The largest result for the left was in Rouen, where the PS candidate defeated, by the first round, the centrist-UDF incumbent Pierre Albertini. Rouen, had elected centrist mayors since 1945 (except for one PS between 1995 and 2001), the most notable of whom was Jean Lecanuet. In Dieppe, despite the fact that the CNIP incumbent was not standing again, the left, led by a young Communist, won by the first round. In Le Havre, however, the PCF failed to win this other communist area from the hands of the UMP Antoine Rufenacht. After merging lists with the PS, the PCF candidate and deputy Daniel Paul lost, with the UMP taking about 54.7%. In two other cities held by the left, such as Elbeuf and Fecamp, the left largely won. Total PS +1 PCF +1

Next: Limousin, Auvergne

French Locals 2008: Centre

March 22nd, 2008 by hashemite

Centre (PS-PCF +2)

Cher: The results in the Cher were not that surprising taken as a whole. The Radical-UMP mayor of Bourges, Serge Lepeltier, was re-elected to his office by the first round, defeating a PS and far-left list. The west of the Cher, meaning the 2nd constituency, is still a Communist “stronghold”, still held by the PCF in the National Assembly. It confirmed its alliegance to the PCF by largely dumping the DVD mayor in Vierzon in favour of a Communist. This all happened by the first round, with Sansu (PCF) defeating the DVD incumbent with over 57.6% of the votes. In the rural southern conservative city of Saint-Amand-Montrond, the right kept its hand on the city, easily, defeating the MoDem and PS in the runoff. The right, which had hopes to win the department back, failed to do so. Total PCF +1

Eure-et-Loir: To the general surprise, stability prevailed in the major cities of Eure-et-Loir. The most surprising result was the UMP mayor Jean-Pierre Gorges holding Chartres, even more surprising considering that a month before that, the Socialists had won his seat in a by-election. In fact, the race was a re-match between the same candidates (the UMP, PS, and MoDem list leaders had all stood in the by-election). Gorges was re-elected, when polls gave him defeated and pundits had signed off Chartres as an easy PS gain. Also noteworthy is the MoDem collapse in Chartres, falling to just 13.7% compared to over 18% in the by-election and June general election. Stability also prevailed elsewhere, the left held Nogent-le-Rotrou and the right held Dreux (a former FN stronghold under the Stirbois family inc.). In Chateaudun, a UMP dissident defeated the UMP mayor. For an unrelated lighter note, the UMP president of the general council, Albéric de Montgolfier is related to the Mongolfier brothers…

Indre: The largest city of the Indre department, Chateauroux, in PS hands until 2001, failed to switch to the left and the UMP incumbent was re-elected with 50.23% by the first round. The left held Le Blanc and Issoudun, the department’s left-wing bastion.

Indre-et-Loire: On the municipal level, the left, already controlling the two major cities of Tours and Amboise, held both of them easily. In Tours, the former stronghold of the christian conservative Jean Royer (until 1995, type Jean Royer on ina.fr for fun) the Socialist Jean Germain defeated the UMP sacrificial lamb, former Minister of Culture Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres (already defeated in June 2007). The MPF candidate and the rising star of the party, Guillaume Peltier won 8% in the city and won 21% in the canton of Tours-Val de Cher. The left also held Amboise with 58.9%, despite it having given Sarkozy 55% in May 2007. On the cantonales scene, the left gained the general council for the first time ever. The right had controlled the department since… 1958.

Loir-et-Cher: The left scored an important victory in the department, taking the prefecture of Blois from the NC incumbent. In addition, they held Vendome narrowly against a right which had hoped to cancel out Blois with a gain in Vendome. In the leftist city of Romorantin-Lanthenay, the PS incumbent was re-elected with about 63% by the first round. Total PS +1

Loiret: Serge Grouard, the UMP incumbent, held Orleans narrowly, with 51.37%. In Montargis and Gien, the two other cities of the department, the right easily won, as expected, but with the independent PCF lists doing well, with over 20% in Montargis and 14.6% in Gien.

Next: Normandie