Now for some detailed city analysis of 2008. Please note in the cases of races that are more primaries than actual elections, no prediction of the “primary” result is made.

Aix-en-Provence (UMP): The right won this city from the PS in 2001. The incumbent, Marysse Joissains has seen her base divided, with two of her deputies supporting the MoDem list. The left, however is also divided between two candidates. The city, however, voted at 57% for Sarkozy in May 2007. Tossup

Amiens (New Centre): Gilles de Robien, former UDF Minister of Education and former MP remains mayor of Amiens, with very high favorables. While the city barely re-elected its NC deputy (as well as Gremetz, a Communist) in June, it voted for Royal in May 2007. The left is, after all, united; Maxime Gremetz having finally declined interest in running. A poll mentioned in this blog earlier showed Robien with a wide lead. While things have most certainly changed, such as the entry of the MoDem into the race, Robien certainly has an advantage. Lean NC-PSLE

Angers (PS): The right has its eyes on this city, which has been Socialist since 1977. Antonini, the PS mayor faces Christophe Béchu, who has received the support of two of the mayor’s deputies and a part of the MoDem. In addition, the left is divided, with the PCF forming a list with the far-left. Lean PS

Argenteuil (UMP): Argenteuil, city of former Communist leader Robert Hue and in the hands of the right since 2001, is one of the cities the left wants to reconquer. The Socialists, however, are split between 2 candidates (one receiving PCF and LO support, the other receiving Green, Radical, and PT support). The right will try to exploit the lefts’ division to hold this city, which voted for Royal in both rounds of the 2007 election. Tossup

Besancon (PS): The left has maintained its control over the capital of the Doubs since 1953, and the right hopes to end that. However, once again, the right is split, with the UMP divided between its official candidates and the former president of Franche-Comte. Lean PS

Bordeaux (UMP): Alain Juppé, former Prime Minister and defeated for re-election in 2007, is running for re-election in Bordeaux. The Socialist candidate, the regional president Alain Rousset hopes to repeat the victory of Royal in the city in 2007. Juppé, however, has the support of Bayrou’s MoDem, leaving the race. Both have high favorables, although Juppé’s is a bit higher. A poll by TNS-Sofres in January showed him leading 52-39. Safe UMP

Boulogne-Billancourt (UMP): As is common in other safe UMP cities, this race is more of UMP primary election between the official candidate (an ex-UDF) and the mayor until 2007 (who resigned in favour of his protegé, who declined to run against the official candidate). The former mayor has the support of the right-wing majority in this city, where Sarkozy took 66%. I do not predict party primaries, so. Safe UMP

Brest (PS): The incumbent Socialist mayor of a safe Socialist city has received the support of the united left (PCF, UDB, Greens etc.) against a divided right. In 2007, Royal easily won, with 56%. Safe PS

Caen (UMP): Defeated in June 2007, Brigitte Le Brethon (by regional president Philippe Duron), faces the same competitor in March. Caen, traditionally right-wing, voted for Royal with 55.6% in May 2007. Tossup

Clermont-Ferrand (PS): This race could have been heated between the incumbent Serge Godard and Immigration Minister Brice Hortefeux, but Hortefeux finally declined to run (looking instead to run in the 2010 regionals). The left is united, as is the right. Safe PS

Dijon (PS): A look at 2007 results would hint at the competitiveness of the race (Sarkozy won with 52%), but the Socialist Rebsamen (who has MoDem support) is very safe. A poll by TNS-Sofres indicated that he led 56-35 and that he had a 72% favorable rating. Safe PS

Grenoble (PS): The Socialist incumbent Michel Destot is safe in Grenoble against the leader of the “young UMP” Fabien de Sans Nicolas. Destot would dominate in a runoff against the right 60-40, with a good transfer of votes from a Green list (credited of 12% support). Safe PS

Le Havre (UMP): Le Havre is bizarre- in 2007, the Communists actually gained a seat in the city when nationwide they lost seats. The left, however, is divided, with no union between the PCF and the Socialists, both of which are running independent lists. Daniel Paul, a Communist deputy could narrowly defeat the Socialist list (which, however, would still have enough votes to maintain itself in a runoff) in the first round. The total of 3 left-wing candidates in the first round would be 44%, to 47% for the UMP incumbent Antoine Rufenacht. In a runoff, Paul is tied with Rufenacht but Rufenacht would defeat the Socialist list. Le Havre could very well fall to the Communists in 2008. Tossup

Le Mans (PS): In this city, in the hands of the left since 1977, the Socialist incumbent Jean-Claude Boulard faces the UMP councillor Veronique Rivron. The MoDem has been joined by the Left Radicals, traditional allies of the Socialists. Boulard is safe in a city where Royal scored 56% in the runoff. Safe PS

Lille (PS): Martine Aubry, first elected in 2001 but defeated in the 2002 legislative elections is hoping to be re-elected easily. While she personally is safe, the right could potentially pick up neighboring cities (such as Turcoing) which would tip the “greater Lille” to the right. Safe PS

Lyon (PS): The division of the right in 2001 (between the Millonists and Michel Mercier, UDF) led to the left’s capture of the capital of Gaul and the “capital of the UDF” with Gerard Collomb (PS). The UMP candidate, Dominique Perben hopes to regain this “accidental loss”, but he faces a very popular mayor (when he himself has low favorable ratings). While Perben has been able to rally a part of the MoDem (with pressure from Michel Mercier) and the Millonists, his electorate is weaker. The transfer of votes from the “official” MoDem list would benefit Collomb 53-42. There is a realistic chance, that if the MoDem is weak (divisions are very apparent), Collomb could win over 50% of votes cast citywide. Safe PS

Marseille (UMP): The UMP incumbent, Jean-Claude Gaudin hopes to win a third term against a left that is united, for the first time since Gaston Defferre’s death. The race will be a tight one, but with relatively high favorable ratings, Gaudin has a narrow advantage in both rounds. Lean UMP

Metz (DVD): While the city of Metz is right-wing country, with the UMP controlling 3 of the 3 seats in the National Assembly, the municipal election is more of a right-wing primary between Jean-Marie Rausch, the 78 year old Divers Droite incumbent and the UMP candidate, Marie-Jo Zimmerman. Rausch has opened his list to a defeated Socialist primary candidate, but his former deputy, the MEP Nathalie Griesbeck leads the centrist MoDem. Lean DVD

Montpellier (PS): The Socialist incumbent, H. Mandroux is faced by a confident right, based on the scores obtained by Sarkozy in 2007 in the city. However, Mandroux remains popular and has Communist support. While the Greens are running an independent list, they will likely fusion with the incumbent’s list. Lean PS

Montreuil (CAP/PCF): The race in Montreuil is a left-wing primary, without the Socialists. The CAP (party close to the Communists) mayor Jean-Pierre Brard faces Dominique Voynet, Green candidate in 2007 and local Senator. The Socialist has renewed its support to Brard, but local Socialists have also rallied the Green candidacy. Lean CAP/PCF

Mulhouse (GM): The former Socialist and Secretary of State for Co-operation and Francophonie Jean-Marie Bockel is running for re-election… as a “Modern Left” candidate supported by the UMP. He is faced by an “official” Socialist candidate, who represents a local party divided by Bockel’s floor crossing but decries Bockel’s “traitorious” move. Bockel hopes that his support by most of the UMP will result in his re-election in this very right-wing Alsatian city. Safe GM

Nancy (PR/UMP): The right Radical A. Rossinot, re-elected since 1983, hopes to win a fifth term. However, the left is confident based on the left’s good scores in 2007. The MoDem too is confident, with Francoise Herve, who had obtained 17% in 2001. Lean Radical

Nantes (PS): The leader of the Socialist group, Jean-Marc Ayrault is running for a fourth term, with the support of the Greens, PCF, Radicals, and the UDB. Nantes, which voted for Royal in 2007, is a traditionally left-wing city. The UMP candidate, Sophie Jozan, has, however, obtained the support of one of Ayrault’s deputy. As for the MoDem, it counts on the 21% that voted for Bayrou in April 2007. Safe PS

Nice (UMP): The battle in Nice, a right-wing stronghold, is another right-wing primary. The UMP candidate, Christian Estrosi must face the unhappy ex-FN incumbent, Jacques Peyrat, who leads a dissident list. The left is also divided between an official PS candidate and its 2001 candidate, both of which are running. In a poll by TNS-Sofres, Estrosi had 51% by the first round, compared to 18% for the PS and 14% for Peyrat. He would also defeat the Socialist and Peyrat in a three-way runoff (57-28-15) and would trounce the Socialists 70-30 in a two-way runoff. Safe UMP

Nimes (UMP): Although his term has been marked by scandals, Jean-Paul Fournier (UMP) remains popular in this former Communist city. The right, however seems safe. Sarkozy and the UMP dominated the city in the 2007 election. The left is divided between Alain Clary, the former PCF mayor, a Socialist list, a Green list, and a LCR list. Fournier would defeat Clary 57 to 43 in a runoff and would defeat the Socialist candidate 60 to 40. Safe UMP

Orleans (UMP): This UMP pickup in 2001 is vulnerable to the left, who is running united under the former PS mayor and Senator. The MoDem supports the incumbent, Serge Grouard. While the UMP swept the department in 2007, UMP and PS candidates were neck-to-neck in the city, which voted for Sarkozy (51%). Lean UMP

Paris (PS): The left, under Bertrand Delanoë, picked up the capital from a divided right in 2001. As in Lyon, the right is hoping to compensate for the “accidental loss” of the city in 2001. The UMP candidate, Françoise de Panafieu has been able to rally (for the most part) the Parisian right, used to division. The MoDem, led by MEP Marielle de Sarnez hopes to repeat the party’s good scores (especially in de Sarnez’s arrondissement, 18.5% in June) and act as kingmaker between the two rounds. The Greens are running an independent list, as they did with great success in 2001; however it is likely they will fusion with Delanoë’s lists, as in 2001. The Socialist success in the city in June (such as the pickup of the 12^th arrondissement’s constituency) makes the left optimist, but Panafieu counts on the support of the right and of certain MoDems (such as Jean-Marie Cavada). However, Delanoë is highly popular in the city and the left seems in a good position to keep the city. Safe PS

Perpignan (UMP): Jean-Paul Alduy is leading the UMP in a traditionally right-wing city, that also has a strong FN presence. The left enters divided between two candidates, a PS-PCF list and a DVG list. According to an IFOP poll, Alduy has a large lead in the first round, 44-21 over the Socialist. The FN candidate, Louis Alliot would have enough support (13%) to remain in the runoff, as would the DVG candidate (11%). In a four-way runoff, Alduy would win 52-24, with 13% for the FN and 11% for the DVG. Alduy would also win 54-31-15 in a three-way runoff with the FN. Safe UMP

Reims (DVD): With the incumbent stepping down, the UMP must hold this city for the right in another primary battle. Renaud Dutreuil, former Minister and a deputy from Reims is the official UMP candidate, facing another Reims deputy and former Minister, Catherine Vautrin. In this right-wing city, the Socialists have little chance at picking up the city. Safe UMP

Rennes (PS): Edmond Hervé, mayor of the capital of the Bretagne region since 1977, is retiring in favour of Daniel Delaveau, mayor of neighboring Saint-Jacques-de-la-Lande. This city, where Royal obtained 63% in the runoff in 2007, is a solid left-wing city. However, the UMP hopes to gain votes with Karim Boudjema, an independent supported by the UMP. Boudjema calls himself a “half-Sarkozyste”. The MoDem candidate hopes to win back some of Bayrou’s 22% in the city in April. Safe PS

Rouen (UDF): Pierre Albertini, an independent centrist supported by the UMP, MoDem, and NC is extremely vulnerable in a left trending city, especially with mediocre favorable ratings. With the deputy Valérie Fourneyron, the united left hopes to gain this city. According to a TNS-Sofres poll, the left seems quite sure of picking up Rouen, dominating 54-41 by the first round. Safe PS

Saint-Etienne (UMP): Michel Thollière, UMP mayor since 1995 is faced with two strong candidates, Gilles Artigues (MoDem) and Maurice Vincent (PS-united left). Royal won the city on both rounds in 2007 and the Socialist hopes are high. Tossup

Strasbourg (UMP): Strasbourg, in Socialist hands until 2001, is the still the most left-wing city in very conservative Alsace. Fabienne Keller, the UMP incumbent must defeat the former Socialist mayor Roland Ries (from 1997 to 2000), who is in a relatively good position, the Socialists having won 50.9% in the city in June. The Greens are also running an independent list. The MoDem list has received the support of the former Green (now suspended) Yann Wehrling. Two polls showed Ries either narrowly leading or the race tied. Tossup

Toulon (UMP): The UMP under Hubert Falco picked up the right-wing bastion of Toulon from the far-right MNR incumbent Jean-Marie Le Chevallier in 2001. The department’s deputies are all UMP, but the FN remains relatively strong. Safe UMP

Toulouse (app. UMP): Jean-Luc Moudenc, the UMP mayor of Toulouse faces a tough battle in a city which gave Royal 57% of the vote and elected only Socialist deputies (Moudenc himself was defeated in June 2007). However, Moudenc is popular (more so than his predecessor, Philippe Douste-Blazy). While polls indicate a narrow lead for Moudenc in the first round (mainly due to the presence of a anti-liberal list led by a Socialist), the runoff is very tight. The latest poll shows him defeated 52-48 in the runoff. Tossup

Tours (PS): The left is confident of its chances to give Jean Germain a third term. As in 2001, he will face former Culture Minister Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres, who must deal with a divided right. Guillaume Peltier, young deputy of the MPF, who had obtained almost 6% in the June legislative elections, is also running. Safe PS

Villeurbanne (PS): The right is confident of its chances to pickup the Lyon suburb of Villeurbanne from the Socialist incumbent. Royal narrowly won the city, with only 50.9%. Henry Chabert, former deputy of the ex-mayor of Lyon Michel Noir, is leading a tough campaign against the PS incumbent. Lean PS

Time now for some little notes on the intricate system used in municipal elections…

Under 35,000 inhabitants

People vote for a candidate in the first round, where votes are counted by candidate. If one or more has over 50% of the votes, he wins by the first round. For the other seats, it goes into a good ol’ runoff, where a plurality of vote is enough to win seats. These cities have from 9 to 23 seats. What is funny is that electors can “modify” a party list, like scratching out a candidate’s name.

Contrary to what people think, the mayor is not directly elected. Any councillor can run for mayor once he/she is elected. To be elected, you need 50% of the councillors. If not it goes into a runoff. If in this runoff, nobody has 50%, a third round is held where a relative majority is enough.

Over 35,000 inhabitants

Thankfully, it gets simpler… for now. In these cities, parties run lists. In the first round, people vote for one of these lists. If one of them wins over 50%, that lists wins the same percentage of seats as it won votes. Remaining seats are then allocated proportionally using a 5% threshold.

If no list has over 50%, a runoff is held, where only lists with 10% or more are allowed. The winning list wins automatically 50% of all seats, as a sort of “winning bonus” similar to what exists in Greek elections. Remaining seats are then allocated proportionally using a 5% threshold.

The election of the mayor is held under the same rules as described above.

Paris, Lyon, Marseille

That was too simple. Before going further, please note that these 3 cities are each subdivided into arrondissements.

Once again, parties run lists of candidates. The first round follows the same system as described above. Electors, however, elect both a arrondissement council and the city council.

If no list has a majority, a runoff is held in that arrondissement between the lists with over 10% there. The subsequent allocation of seats is determined using the same “formula” as in the other cities with over 35,000 inhabitants.

The arrondissement council elects an arrondissement mayor, using the same system. The election of the city’s mayor uses, once again, the same process.

In part III, I’ll get into concrete 2008 stuff, looking at the important races in the major cities. More interesting than this.

The French local elections are coming up very quick, the first round being held on March 9 and the runoff on the 16th. Up for elections are all 36,783 mayors and around 500,000 city councillors. Also, often being overlooked are the cantonale elections, this year, the “2001 series” of cantons (similar to US counties, but used even more for administrative purposes) are up for re-election. These cantonale office holders are also known as councillors and sit in the general council. They also elect the President of the General Council.

Of course, no better way to start out than with some good ol’ maps. The first one is the one that will spark the most interest. Tis’ a map of the current political affiliations of the incumbent city mayors (taking into account party switches, party creations etc. since 2001)… The Paris petite couronne is also included, mostly to show the current Communist cities.

Most party abbreviations should be quite obvious; CAP is a small anti-liberal commie party, GM is Jean-Marie Bockel’s new centre-left UMP affiliated party, and the CNIP is a fringe conservative party that used to be important.

A few “OMG this party controls this city!” comments should pop up, like the UMP incumbents in the Socialist southwest or the MoDem incumbent in Saint-Brieuc.

Now, for a map of the 2004 President of the GC  (Note: UDF incumbents; all are New Centre except for two MoDem)

After the previous post on the results of the far-right in France since 1946 and a quick analysis of the history of it, time for a shorter but nonetheless important and interesting post on the geographic distribution of the far-right vote since 1956 up to 2007.

Although I said in part 1 how the UFF and the FN were similar, their geographies were entirely different. The vote for the Poujadists in 1956 is similar to the MPF vote in 2007, the UFF received most of its high scores in the Pays de la Loire region, which is a traditionalist and highly Catholic region. The UFF also performed strongly in various departments in the south west and south east of France. Apart from the Vaucluse and a few other departments, the UFF map is different from that of the FN today.

Larger version

Although I said in part 1 how the UFF and the FN were similar, their geographies were entirely different. The vote for the Poujadists in 1956 is similar to the MPF vote in 2007, the UFF received most of its high scores in the Pays de la Loire region, which is a traditionalist and highly Catholic region. The UFF also performed strongly in various departments in the south west and south east of France. Apart from the Vaucluse and a few other departments, the UFF map is different from that of the FN today.

Continuing on to 1965, some patterns can be seen and the map is comparable to 2007

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The vote for Tixier-Vignancour was based in the southeast and southwest. There is a bit of a favorite son factor affecting the vote in the southwest, Tixier-Vignancour was a deputy from the Basse Pyrenees. The Mediterranean coastline departments were still relatively left-leaning in 1965, but the arrival of Pieds-Noirs from Algeria following the end of the Algerian conflict in the 1960s transformed the region, most notably the Bouches-du-Rhone department into FN-Right wing territory.

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Jean-Marie Le Pen is originally from the Morbihan department in Brittany even though he represented Paris-area constituencies most of his life. In 1974, he received 0.74% of vote the vote, and was above his national average in Morbihan department, benefiting from a “strong” favorite son factor, although when working with under-one percent numbers its hard to make any trend out of it. He did however break 1% in the Bouches-du-Rhone, the Var, and Alpes Maritimes.

It would be useless of course to look at the FN’s results up until 1986. Starting in 1986 one can see the strengthening of the FN in the east of France, especially in Alsace and Lorraine and at a lesser extent in the Nord-Pas de Calais.

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The list below shows the departments in which a FN-CNIP list obtained seats and its % score there.

• Alpes Maritimes (20.88%) ;
• Bouches du Rhône (22.53%) ;
• Gard (14.12%) ;
• Gironde (7.94%) ;
• Hérault (15.55%) ;
• Isère (10.14%) ;
• Loire (12.87%) ;
• Moselle (13.29%) ;
• Nord (11.35%.) ;
• Oise (10.75%.) ;
• Pas de Calais (7.83%) ;
• Pyrénées-Orientales (1908%) ;
• Bas-Rhin (13.05%) ;
• Haut-Rhin (14.46%) ;
• Rhône (13.24%) ;
• Paris (10.99%) ;
• Seine-Maritime (6.72%. ;
• Seine-et-Marne (11.90%.) ;
• Yvelines (10.40%) ;
• Var (17.11%) ;
• Vaucluse (18.08%) ;
• Essonne (9.45%);
• Hauts-de-Seine (11.29%) ;
• Seine Saint Denis (14.52%) ;
• Val-de-Marne (11.61%) ;
• Val d’Oise (12.51%)

Since 1986-1988, the patterns in the FN vote have remained more or less the same: the highest scores in the east, south east, and to a lesser extent the north.

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Now we jump to 2002, where Le Pen came out on top in nine out of 22 regions and 35 departments; and as all remember qualified for the runoff. Le Pen won in Alsace, PACA, Lorraine, Bourgogne, and the former Communist stronghold and industrial region of Nord-Pas de Calais. He also won in the Languedoc-Roussillon, Picardie, Champagne-Ardenne, Franche-Comte.

The FN has never broken through in the Catholic regions of Pays de la Loire and Brittany, which has remained a stronghold for the MPF. At the same time, the MPF has never broken through in the frontiste territories. While the FN had regional representation from 1998 to 2004 in the regional councils of these regions, the FN scores there are mostly below national average.

In 2007, Le Pen won no departments and his vote collapsed, most notably in Alsace. while he kept his score at FN average in the Nord-Pas de Calais, where his daughter was the only FN candidate to pass the 12.5% threshold to participate in the second round in the June 2007 legislative elections.

This is meant to be a statistical analysis of the far-right, not a socio political analysis. Therefore, if your eyes can’t stand the sight of percentages, you better run away before its too late. For those still here, no better way to start off than with a neat little Excel graphic. The codes should be straightforward (L for legislative, P for presidential… you get it now). EU, regional, and local elections are not included either for lack of nationwide data or the fact that their inclusion would mess up any trend. Those elections, however, are referenced in the analysis below when they are necessary for the explanation. Lastly, you’ll probably notice that the text involves into a history of the FN, that’s because they’re the only major party of the far-right since its creation.

The above chart shows the evolution of the vote of the far-right from 1956 to 2007 (now).

Larger version

In 1956, the first major post-war far-right party/group was formed- the Poujadists, formally known as Union et fraternité française (Union and French Fraternity). The UFF’s message was radically populist, with the introduction of law projects such as the re-establishment of the States-General (abolished following the Revolution) as a third house in Parliament (to add a social representation to geographical representation). Most of the UFF’s populist, Euro-sceptic, and nationalist ideas are today part of the main ideals of the FN, not surprising considering Le Pen was elected in 1956 as a UFF deputy. Anyways, back to statistics- the UFF realized a breakthrough taking over 2,4 million votes (11.6%) and 52 seats. As other anti-establishment (in this case meaning anti-Fourth Republic) parties in France (PCF, RPF) the UFF was penalized through the complex “apparentées” laws, which was in place to favor the Third Force (Socialists, RGR, MRP, Moderate right). It could have theoretically obtained around 75 seats in a purely proportional system. The UFF was laminated two years later with the birth of the the 5th Republic, only 2 UFF incumbents were re-elected under different banners (including as Le Pen under the CNIP etiquette). The far-right won 3.29% in 1958 and declined to 0.87% in 1962. In the 1965 presidential election, the candidate of the far-right, Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour obtained 5.2% but his candidacy failed to rally many voters not traditionally of the nationalist right. In 1966, the “Tixier Committees” (various far-right parties) were dissolved, which led to the division of the far-right into various short-lived parties. In the 1967 election the far-right fell to only 0.85%. Tixier-Vignancour was defeated in Toulon. In 1968, the far-right obtained its lowest score ever: 0.13%.

In 1972, the nationalist movement Ordre Nouveau, a neo-fascist movement similar to the Italian MSI or German NPD decided to contest the 1973 legislative elections as a larger movement- the National Front. The 1973 FN, similar to the UFF in terms of ideology, obtained 1.32% in the 1973 elections. Le Pen obtained 5.22% in Paris, the best score by a FN candidate that year. Ordre Nouveau was later dissolved by Raymond Marcellin, the Minister of the Interior in June 1973 following a violent anti-immigration rally. Led in an authoritarian fashion by Le Pen, the FN split with Ordre Nouveau, whose few supporters formed the PFN (Party of New Forces) in 1974.

Le Pen, the FN candidate in the 1974 election ran under a ultra-nationalist and populist platform, but obtained only 0.75% and supported VGE in the runoff. In the following 1978 and 1981 legislative elections, the FN obtained less than 1% in both years. In fact, the FN had only 270 members in 1980! Due to three right-wing (RPR) candidates and the pressure of the PFN, Le Pen was not able to obtain his 500 signatures mandatory to run in the 1981 presidential election. In the 1982 cantonale elections (locals), the FN began its non-stop rise, obtaining scores over 12% in various cantons in the Nord-Pas de Calais region. In the 1983 municipal elections, the far-right, even though it had obtained only 0.11% on a national level, obtained scores such as 11.3% for Le Pen in Paris’ 20th arrondissement. However, the first true success for the party came in the 1984 Euro elections where it obtained 10.95% nationally and 10 MEPs. With the rise of the FN, the PFN was dissolved in 1984- the FN had occupied the area of the French far-right.

In the 1986 election, held under proportional representation, the FN surged from 0.36% in 1981 to 9.85% that year. It elected 35 deputies, including Le Pen, Megret, Gollnisch, Peyrat (now UMP mayor of Nice), and Stirbois. The party’s top score in a department was 22.53% in the Bouches-du-Rhone, which became a long-time bastion of the far-right. In the simultaneous regional elections, the FN took 9.56% and elected 137 frontiste councillors. The support of the FN to the RPR/UDF allowed the right to gain the presidency of 7 regions, furthermore, the FN was represented in four, later six regional executives.

In 1987, Le Pen announced his candidacy in the 1988 election under a program not very different from his original 1974 program. Le Pen obtained 14.38%, much higher than 0.74% 14 years prior. In the subsequent legislative elections (held under the old two-round system, not PR) after a dissolution by newly re-elected President Mitterand, the FN and the far-right took “only” 9.79% but nonetheless placed ahead of the right (RPR/UDF) in 9 constituencies (8 in the Bouches-du-Rhone and 1 in the Var) . However, due to the end of PR, the FN lost all of its 35 seats except one in the Var, where Yann Piat was elected in that department’s 3rd constituency (she was excluded/left the FN to join the UDF before being killed in 1994). In the 1992 regional elections, the FN obtained 239 councillors in 22 metro regions.

In the 1993 elections, the FN and the far-right (mostly the smaller Alliance Nationale) obtained a total of 12.72%, and the presence of FN candidates in various runoffs could be held responsible for the defeat of the right and the re-election of Socialist incumbents in the weird constituencies, “marginal constituencies” using the British term. In the 1995 presidential election, Le Pen went up to 15% and in the subsequent June municipal elections, the FN elected mayors in three major cities (Marignane, Toulon, and Orange; later Vitrolles in 1996).

In the 1997 legislative elections, the FN obtained its best result ever in a legislative election- a total of 15.05% for the FN and other far-right parties. The FN mayor of Toulon Jean-Marie Le Chevallier was elected with 53.16% in the runoff, but his election was invalidated in 1998 and his wife, FN candidate in the subsequent by-election, was defeated.

In the March 1998 regional elections, the FN obtained 275 councillors in total, but in late 1998 and early 1999, the FN split with Bruno Megret leaving the FN to form the MNR. It is good to add that the Le Pen-Megret confrontation was long-lasting and not born in 1998 as many wrongly assume. With Megret and the new MNR went 140 FN regional councillors (131 stayed with the FN and 4 went other ways, including to a far-right Alsace regionalist movement). Le Chevallier, mayor of Toulon also left the FN to the MNR (he was defeated for re-election by the first round in 2001).

When people think of the French far-right they automatically think of 2002, not without reason. Although Le Pen increased his score of only 1.86% compared to his 1995 candidacy, the division of the left caused the defeat by the first round of Jospin and the qualification of Le Pen for the runoff. Surprisingly, the total left (PRG, PS, MDC etc) obtained more votes that the right and the far-right! The chart above (if you remember it after all this text) also counts the often-forgotten candidacy of Bruno Megret, who obtained 2.34% giving the FN-MNR a total of 19.20% of the votes nationally. Le Pen was of course defeated in the runoff taking only 18% to Chirac’s 82%. In the subsequent legislative election, the FN and MNR ran separate candidates and the far-right obtained only 12.67% in total, and all its candidates qualified for runoffs were defeated, including Jacques Bompard, mayor of Orange (re-elected in 2001 as FN, but now with de Villier’s MPF).

Contrary to what many thought would be the far-right’s first foray into 20% territory, Le Pen obtained only 10.44% in the 2007 presidential election, a poll afterwards showed that around 30% of his electors voted for the UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy. If those 32% had not voted for the UMP, Le Pen would have taken 21% of the vote and Sarkozy would have come second, not first, behind the PS candidate Segolene Royal. The FN disaster continued after the April presidential election- the far-right took only 4.68% in the first round of the June legislative election. The FN itself tied with the Communists, a party the FN had surpassed for the first time in 1986, with 4.29% each. Only one FN candidate reached the runoff, in the Pas de Calais department (constituency of Henin-Beaumont), Le Pen’s daughter who surprisingly increased the score of the far-right compared to June 2002. Apparently, the FN is hoping to win Henin-Beaumont in the 2008 local elections.

Is it the end of the non-stop rise for the FN? Maybe. Is it, however, the end of the far-right in France? Probably not. In fact, in a by-election in November of 2007, the FN candidate increased his party’s score from a mere 3-4% to 8%. The FN is polling at 8% for the March 2008 local elections.

Although not related to the crazy percentages here at all, it is interesting to note that numerous personalities of what is today the UMP or the UDF began their political careers in the far-right, as many PS personalities began theirs in the far-left PSU. Patrick Devedjian, Gérard Longuet, Alain Madelin were all members of Occident, a neo-fascist group that existed in the 1960s. Funnily, all three above are now pro-European and the latter two are liberals. Jacques Peyrat, UMP mayor of Nice as of now, was also a FN deputy elected in 1986.

Lastly, another thing to think about- as said above about the 1993 election, the presence of FN candidates in legislative runoffs could be blamed for the defeat of the candidates of the parliamentary right (RPR, UDF, DL, UMP) and the election of the left. In fact, in 1997, some RPR and UDF candidates were defeated by the left and the FN in three-way races, called triangulaires. Supporters of the right call these (in)famous races the triangulaires de la mort (transliterated into the triangular races of death).

Part 2- the geographic base of the FN

The Cotes d’Armor has for a long time been the left’s stronghold in Brittany. If one looks through old electoral statistics, the left has always achieved stronger results in Cotes d’Armor than elsewhere in Brittany. In 2007, Segolene Royal took 30% by the first round and 55% on the second round, compared to 28% in Ille-et-Vilaine and 29% in Finistère. The Communists have also performed above average here, for example Buffet took 2.32% in the department, compared to around 1.9% nationally. Geographically, Socialist support is concentrated heavily in the west of the department, in the constituencies of Guingamp and Lannion while also acheiving high results in Saint Brieuc. The eastern regions, Dinan and Loudeac trend minimally more towards the right, and of those two only Loudeac and the south of the department are more right-wing than its neighboring regions. In the first round of the 2007 presidential election, Dinan and Loudeac voted for Sarkozy, the three other constituencies voted for Royal, with her scores in these three constituencies above her departmental average. Royal won all constituencies in the second round, including Loudeac and Dinan. Once again, a clear east-west divide is seen- she took 52% in Loudeac and Dinan but from 55 to 61% in the three other constituencies.

The results of the first round of the legislative election in Cotes d’Armor illustrated excellently the blue wave of the first round. UMP candidates took the lead in 3 constituencies, with Socialists leading in 2 constituencies. One could have believed the left’s lock on the department was crumbling, though that was not the case.

In the first constituency, Saint Brieuc, seat held by the Socialiste Danielle Bousquet, and a generally safe seat for the PS, the result showed a blue wave too, the UMP was up from 25% in 2002 to around 36%! Also, the Socialist vote was up too, from 34% to 39%. However, in 2002, a UDF candidate had taken 12% here, and in 2007 the MoDem ran no candidate in this constituency, the only constituency where they didn’t do so. To explain the increase in Socialist vote, there was less of a division in left-wing votes than in 2002, the idea of vote utile being shown here. Both the Communist and Green vote was down, the PCF had won 7.6% in 2002, the Greens 4.6%, and the Pole Republicain had 1.5%. In 2007, the Communists collapsed to 5.4%, and the Greens were down to 4.5%. Bousquet was of course re-elected, with over 57.7%, higher than her 55% score in 2002 and only a few points higher than Royal’s 57.2%.

The second constituency, formed by Dinan, Cap Frehel, Plancoet voted for Sarkozy in the first round and the seat itself is a marginal. In the first round, Michel Vaspart, UMP candidate on his second try, led the Socialist incumbent Jean Gaubert by two votes! The surge of the left nationwide in the second round provided Gaubert with the power to trounce Vaspart 54.7% to 45.3%. In 2002, the result had been much more marginal, Gaubert had defeated Vaspart with only 50.12%.

The third constituency, dominated by Loudéac and Lamballe, the first one being a city of the right, the other being a city of the left. The constituency is the only one held by the right. The first round of 2007 was easily dominated by the UMP incumbent Marc Le Fur, who was only 2% away from being elected by the first round. He took 48.02%, the Socialists over 10 points behind with 34.7%. Equally surprising is the scale of the centre’s collapse from Bayrou’s 21% in April to the MoDem’s mere 2.9% in June. In the south, Loudéac and surrouding villages all voted at over 50% for Le Fur, while Lamballe voted, in scores much closer than in the south, primarily for the Socialist candidate. In the second round, Le Fur was re-elected taking 52%, down only a few points from 52.7% in 2002.

Guingamp and its constituency is the most solid Socialist constituency in the department, Royal took over 61% in the second round here. This seat is also part of western Brittany’s red belt, the belt that extends into Morbihan where Communists achieve high scores. In fact, in 1997, a Communist was elected in a race including a Socialist candidate. In 2002, the Communists lost half their 1997 vote and fell to 15.8%. In 2007, the Socialist incumbent Marie-Renée Oget easily won the first round taking 32.6% to the UMP’s 26.16%. The Communists achieved their best score region wide, with over 12% and coming first in 5 towns. The MoDem also won 3 towns and took 10.2% in the constituency as a whole. The UDB, a left-wing autonomist party, leader and regional councillor Mona Bras won 4.9%. In the second round, Oget, with a strong reserve from the Communists and UDB easily won, trouncing the UMP with her 63%.

The fifth constituency, whose main city is Lannion votes, more or less, like the department as a whole. With the “blue wave” of the first round, the UMP candidate came out on top with 34% to the Socialist’s 33%. The MoDem was also strong, with 10.9%, the centre’s best score in the department, although far from Bayrou’s 21% in April. Continuing it’s local bellwether tradition, the Socialists carried the seat with 56%, increasing the party’s marginal 50.92% in 2002. The right came out on top, although most times by almost nothing, in the richer seaside resorts, for example Perros Guirec.

As for summing up a general trend in the department, the west is safe Socialist, the east is more marginal, with the south of the department being more rightwards leaning. Without forgetting of course the red belt in the west. Ahead of the 2008 municipal elections, the Socialists will be trying to take back Saint Brieuc from the right, after the left had lost it in 2001. Another target within the left’s reach is Dinan, which voted Socialist in the second round of the legislative elections and whose town hall is currently held by the right.

Political Event of the Year:

France: The election of Nicolas Sarkozy and a new generation of politics. Sarkozy is the first president since 1958 born after the Second World War, the only president without memories from the War in Algeria. The new generation of politicians as witnessed in the presidential race, the two frontrunners had never run for president before, the third placed candidate was only on his second try. All minor parties candidates, with the exception of Arlette Laguiller, were on their first or second attempt.

Canada: The butchering of the environment by the Harper government. Harper and company’s refusal to follow Kyoto, their refusal to commit to environmental protection might ruin their chances of forming a majority, or even a government again in 2008. Honorable mention to Mario Dumont’s ADQ for becoming the official opposition.

Political Gaffe of the Year:

France: The TVA sociale proposed in the week between the first and second round of the general election. The VAT polemic prevented the “blue tsunami/wave” from happening and in fact led to the defeat of UMP incumbents and a better performance than expected by parties such as the Greens, PS, or even the MoDem. Honorable mentions go to Segolene Royal on saying entirely stupid things during the campaign and getting immature in the debate (without forgetting pissing off Eric Besson etc.). Another mention to Bayrou, in his refusal to co-operate with either PS or UMP brought his “MoDem” to 3-4 seats.

Canada: John Tory easily. How stupid can one be? I mean, the PC led in polls at some point early in the campaign before he started talking of his religious school funding. The man just had to focus of the Lieberals and McGuinty’s broken promises instead of talking about a hated idea and losing votes and leading to the re-election of a Liberal government. Honorable mention to Mario Dumont and wanting to call an election over 8% turnout in school board elections. Is it news to anybody that people don’t give two shits about school board elections? Jesus Christ man.

Best Political Maneuvering:

France: Sarkozy’s strategy of ouverture shot the PS another bullet after taking a first one in the presidential election. By taking some of the PS’s leading figures and putting them in government (Bernard Kouchner, Jean-Marie Bockel etc.), or giving them a better job (DSK at the IMF instead of being a opposition MP for a Paris suburb constituency that goes up in flames every once in a while)

Canada: Well firstly, Stephen Harper clearly isn’t as smart as Sarkozy. The best thing he did is naming a Liberal like John Manley head of a panel on the Afghan mission.

Rising Star(s):

France: The new government, and some of its members such as Rama Yade, Rachida Dati, Eric Besson.

Canada: I know everybody will go “JUSTIN TRUDEAU” but no, the guy is another “son of” type of person who seems as arrogant as his father, and for the love of god, the guy isn’t even an MP yet! He needs to unseat an incumbent first! I’d say Michael Ignatieff. If Dion looses the next federal election, Ignatieff has a good shot at becoming Liberal leader.

“Kid Kodak”:

France: And Arnaud “the Bad Student” Montebourg sweeps the award again! When medias are looking for somebody to whine about something they turn to a irrelevant MP of Saone-et-Loire for his irrelevant two cents. And, being on the 8 o’clock news every time the right does something isn’t enough, he also needs to say a stupid thing on Royal/Hollande during the campaign which gets him a “yellow card” from the Grade One teacher, Segolene Royal. Honorable mentions to Noel Mamere, one of the 4/577 Green MPs, Francois Bayrou, Segolene Royal etc.

Canada: John Baird if only Stephen Harper didn’t keep his cabinet in the Mariana Trench all year long.

Country Specific Awards:

France:

2007 Whiner: Arnaud Montebourg and Francois Bayrou.

The Teacher: Segolene Royal and how she gave the bad student, Arnaud Montebourg a “yellow card” for one month for making a stupid comment on her (now over) relationship with party boss Francois Hollande.

Canada:

Deny Reality!: John Baird “it’s not broken! it’s not broken!” on the environment. Uhm, sorry to break your Conservabubble, but it’s broken. Now you and Steve fix it up.

The Rebel: Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams and how he stood up to Steve Harper on the Atlantic Accord. About time somebody stands up to the school Principal.

The Stupidity Award: John Tory for messing up his chances with religious school funding, but also by running in Liberalia (Toronto) against a popular incumbent. As much as may hate parachute-drops, for your own sake, run in some safe PC seat, not in Toronto against the Minister of Education!

“Darn Polls!”

France: Bayrou’s surge from 5% to 23% in about a month, and the second round polls during the June legislative election that still predicted a blue wave.

USA: Huckabee’s primary surge in Iowa and now nationwide from 1-2% to 30% (in Iowa) and second place nationally. January 3rd will tell if the polls were right
Canada: The Green Party’s surge from 4.5% in 2006 to 9-13% in polls now, and the Ontario Greens’ surge from 2% in 2003 to 8% in 2007.

The Socialists have held former Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s Val d’Oise seat (Sarcelles) in a by-election on December 9 and 16. In June 2007, the UMP candidate and lawyer Sylvie Noachovitch had caused a surprise when she led DSK in the first round, before losing 55-45 to DSK. Resigning only a few months later to become head of the International Monetary Fund, his protege and incumbent Mayor of Sarcelles François Pupponi became the PS candidate. This is the constituency of Villiers le Bel, where riots and building destruction happened in November 2007.

While participation was just 25.06%, the PS led the first round by 168 votes over Noachovitch, though the UMP vote was up albeit minimally. The surprise was the FN’s surge, from a mere 4% to 7.47% this election, and over 10% in Villiers le Bel. The Communist vote was also up to 6.03%, while the centrist MoDem lost 0.28% of its June 2007 vote.

Pupponi was elected today with around 54.4% of the vote, down from DSK’s second round score in June.

Could this FN re-birth from it’s June disaster be a nationwide trend? We’ll need to wait until March 2008 for a confirmation on that.

This map showing the vote received by candidates of CPNT (Hunting, Fishing, Nature, and Traditions) reflects an interesting pattern seen in all others CPNT maps, the lands of “hunters”. It sounds silly as we’re used to “centrist lands”, “socialist lands”, but there is also “hunters land”. The Somme has always been where CPNT achieved their best results, in 1999 they won the department in the European elections. Jean Saint-Josse took over 10% in the department in the 2002 presidential elections. Nihous won only over 2.5% here in 2007, but even as the CPNT vote is in quick regression, it remains the best department for the party. In the 4th constituency, located around Abbeville, CPNT achieved it’s best result taking 8.9%, better than Nihous’ 5.38%. In the 3rd constituency, CPNT took over 6%, once again better than Nihous’ score here. Other hunter lands are in the Manche department, in Gironde and a few other spots here and there. The east of France, the urban areas all remain hostile to the rural party.

Maxime Gremetz, dissident Communist and deputy from the Somme, won’t be leading a dissident communist candidacy in the Amiens municipal election in 2008. In 2001, he had led the PCF-Left list against incumbent UDF mayor Gilles de Robien, who won by the first round. As PCF list leader in the 2004 regional elections in Picardy, his 10.86% marked the communist’s best score nationwide. In 2007, he was re-elected as deputy, but not under the PCF banner, running instead as a PCF dissident. The Communists were so fed up with him they also ran a candidate, this only a official PCF against him, which took 11.61%. To add to the confusion, the PS also ran a candidate. He said he dropped out because he didn’t want to “carry the responsibility of the rights’ victory”. Because remember people, at his age being responsible is not yet possible. Try again in 2014. The PS-PCF-Green list in 2008 will be led by Gilles Demailly. A poll by TNS-Sofres published December 11th in L’Union gave NC mayor Gilles de Robien an easy re-election:

• G. de Robien (NC-PSLE) 51%
• G. Demailly (PS-PCF-Green) 23%
• M. Gremetz (PCF) 18%
• (FN) 5%
• F. Dolle (LCR) 3%
• 15% undecided

Maybe it isn’t lack of responsibility on the part of Gremetz, maybe it’s the polling?