If a decade ago, you were shown the 2024 House map what would you assume about current politics?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I know I've made thread like this before, but now that we have a few changes in different states, would be curious. You know nothing about partisanship, who controlled the drawing of the maps, or who represents the districts, just the district boundaries.



I would assume generally Democrats ended up in a better place to control redistricting compared to last time, with Texas and North Carolina being the only 2 obvious extreme Republican gerrymanders. However, it's clear Democrats controlled states like IL, NM, NV, and OR. It's also clear states like MI, PA, and VA ended up with some sort of bipartisan/neutral map. Given how clean Michigan's map is I would assume it was some sort of commission.

I would wonder if something happened to the commission in Arizona because a decade ago that type of map would've been a pretty solid 7R-2D (to be fair even today it is a bit of an R-friendly map).

I would assume Florida finally got a truly fair map and that Dems held up well enough that seats like FL-02, FL-04, FL-15, FL-27, and FL-28 were swingy seats.

Louisiana and Alabama would also tell me the VRA was somehow strengthened or reinforced - by 2014 it was clear Democrats were not winning back control of those states anytime soon.

I think my general assumption would be Democrats improved a lot with non-white voters since 2014, hence why Republicans had to cede additional votes sinks in Houston, Dallas, and Atlanta, why new VRA seats were called for in AL and LA, why the South Texas seats could afford to be weakened, why Dems could crack Clark County 3 ways to make 3 safe D Nevada seats, ect

I think the strange configurations for seats like KS-03 and NE-02 would make me think Dems improved a bit in the suburbs, but not a ton and those maps are designed to make those seats likely R. OH-01 also still works as an effective crack.

It would also be clear that Republicans generally gained in rural areas given on every R geerrymander, urban blue areas are combined with rurals that used to be swingier, and also things like Democrats only drawing 1 Dem seat in Southern Illinois.

What would you have thought?