Super wealthy towns that heavily swung against Donald Trump
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  Super wealthy towns that heavily swung against Donald Trump
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Author Topic: Super wealthy towns that heavily swung against Donald Trump  (Read 22140 times)
NOVA Green
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« Reply #100 on: November 21, 2018, 01:12:26 AM »

In Tennessee, I would look for Brentwood and Franklin in Williamson County and Belle Meade in Davidson County.

From eyeballing it, Trump seems to have gotten about 70% of the two-party vote in Brentwood (compared to 75-80% for Romney), about 65% in Franklin, compared to maybe 70% for Romney (but Franklin has some amount of an urban core of its own that was significantly closer, albeit still won by Trump).

Belle Meade had a massive swing, from Romney winning the two-party vote 78-22 to Trump only winning it 62-38.  Granted, third party votes increased from 17 to 113 (all but six of the 113 for Johnson) over that time period.  I can't seem to find the precinct data for the 2015 Nashville mayoral race, but I remember hearing that it voted 90% for David Fox in the technically non-partisan race.

I want to thank you for having the privilege of living in the great Volunteer State, where your SoS office actually posts precinct level returns for the entire state on their official website---- totally awesome, and I wish more states would learn from that leadership and ease of availability to this data. Smiley

County level precinct maps are a bit more hit and miss, since there is county-to-county variance in detailed maps, but for better or worse, larger concentrations of wealthy Americans are a bit more likely to be clustered in Metro areas and Shelby, Davidson, & Williamson Counties all have maps available on their respective websites....

So I pulled about some additional numbers for Tennessee to see what wealthy voters did in 2012 and 2016....

So to go back to Metro Nashville----

#1 Wealthiest-  Belle Meade (Davidson County- MHI $202.1k/Yr-- Pop 3.0k)

(98.3% White, 0.8% Latino)

2012: (22.0% D- 77.1% R)       +55.1% R
2016: (35.5% D- 58.0% R)       +22.5% R       (+33% Dem Swing)

#2 Wealthiest- Forest Hills (Davidson County- MHI $ 174.5k/Yr-  Pop 4.9k)

(93.6% White, 1.7% Latino, 1.4% Asian-American)

2012: (32.0% D- 67.0% R)     +35.0% R
2016: (43.1% D- 51.2% R)     +8.1% R           (+27% Dem Swing)

#3 Brentwood---- Covered Above in my preceding post

#4 Shackle Island (Sumner County)---- Not able to obtain bcs of precinct maps

#5 Oak Hill--- ( Davidson County---- MHI $110.7k/Yr--- Pop 4.6k)

(96.2% White, 1.7% Asian, 1.5% African-American)

2012: (34.7% D- 64.0% R)        +29.3% R
2016: (43.4% D- 50.7% R)        +7.3%  R       (+22% Dem Swing)

Wow--- so we have two of the five wealthiest places in Metro Nashville where Trump barely cleared 50% of the vote!!!!

So, here's a bonus number I pulled for Metro Memphis:

#1 Wealthiest- Germantown- (Shelby County- MHI $ 109.7k/Yr- Pop 39.1k)

(83.8% White, 6.7% Asian, 5.1% African-American, 3.6% Latino)

2012: (21.5% D- 77.5 % R)          +56.0% R
2016: (29.8% D- 69.2% R)           +39.4 % R      (+17% Dem Swing)

Also, a total aside, but anyone from Tennessee or our resident experts on Southern politics have an explanation as to why wealthy White voters in Nashville appear to be more receptive to Democratic Presidential candidates than those in Memphis?











I would also look at Franklin in Williamson County, which is bigger, but still very wealthy as well.  But, my guess on Nashville vs. Memphis is two-fold.  First, the music industry is obviously huge in Nashville, and, in small population places like Belle Meade and Forest Hills (what about Green Hills?), the music industry could have contributed to the large swing in Nashville (but would be less of a factor in rich areas of Williamson County, given the larger population).

Second, West Tennessee and Middle Tennessee are very different (and both are wholly different from East Tennessee).  People who think of Tennessee as an Appalachian state are really only thinking of East Tennessee (which includes Knoxville), which is actually ancestrally Republican and almost uniformly white.  Middle Tennessee is really its own entity, with whites being slightly more Republican than in Kentucky, but less than in Alabama and Mississippi (though it has some in common with South-Central Kentucky and North Alabama).  West Tennessee, on the other hand, is very much part of the Deep South and more resembles Mississippi than East Tennessee, politically, culturally, and geographically.  It is also majority-black or very close to it (Obama actually won West Tennessee in 2012, but I don't think Hillary quite carried it in 2016).  Apart from a few liberal whites (and actually a semi-significant Jewish population) in downtown Memphis, West Tennessee's white voters are much more like Mississippi's.  In fact, if West Tennessee whites voted like East Tennessee whites (East TN is probably 70% Republican, but 90%+ white), West Tennessee would be overwhelmingly Democratic because of Memphis.  In fact, in 2012, simply adding Memphis (the TN-9 section) to Mississippi would have made Mississippi a virtual tie.

Fun Fact: The precinct of the downtown precinct where Nashville's famous Lower Broadway is actually voted overwhelmingly for Trump.



I just found some interesting data that shows a pretty stark divide between Brentwood and Belle Meade, even though they are usually thought of as very politically similar (i.e. ultra-rich and conservative).

2014 Amendment One (which said that abortion is never protected by the TN Constitution "including... when the pregnancy results from rape or incest or when abortion is necessary to save the life of the mother"):

Belle Meade (Davidson County precinct 23-4):
No: 65.4%
Yes: 34.6%

Brentwood (Williamson County precincts 6- 1-3, 7- 1-3):
Yes: 53.5%
No: 46.5%

I would include Franklin too, but its borders are harder to define, but it certainly seems like it went for Yes fairly convincingly, since it includes most of the rest of Williamson County, which went for Yes by more than Brentwood did.  However, the one No precinct in all of Williamson County was in Franklin.

Compare that to Amendment 3 (which made income tax unconstitutional in Tennessee):

Belle Meade:
Yes: 67.4%
No: 32.6%

Brentwood:
Yes: 76.2%
No: 23.8%


And, to show that this simply doesn't reflect that there are that many more Democrats in Belle Meade:

2016 President (2-party vote):

Belle Meade:
Trump: 62.0%
Clinton: 38.0%
(Johnson votes were 6.5% of Trump+Clinton total)

Brentwood:
Trump: 66.4%
Clinton: 33.6%
(Johnson votes were 4.3% of Trump+Clinton total)

So, while Brentwood is slightly more conservative overall than Belle Meade, it is significantly more socially conservative, with a majority even being willing to pass a constitutional amendment that will potentially ban abortion with no exceptions in Tennessee if Roe is overturned.  This likely also explains why Belle Meade trended far more away from Trump than Brentwood did in 2016, considering that it has somewhat of a socially liberal/moderate streak.

That's quite an interesting take on what so far appears to be a significant swing towards the Democratic Nominee Nationally in '16 among relatively wealthy voters, since thus far we haven't necessarily seen a major difference in swings between *regions* of the country.

I wonder to what extent the pattern that you have observed in wealthier Metro precincts in a "Bible Belt" state like Tennessee might also apply to places all the way from Texas/Oklahoma up to North Carolina???

So are some of the variances in swings among "relatively wealthy voters" (High MHI cities and precincts) in much of the South ("Bible Belt") however we choose to define it, potentially explained as a result of areas where there are higher concentrations of Evangelical Christians vs more the "Country Club" Republican types....

Sounds like a Masters Degree research project to me Wink .... but still more seriously I think you are the first to have identified a potential variance in upper-income Southern swings with a potential correlation with a more Evangelical (Southern Baptist?) bent than among other traditionally overwhelmingly Republican  wealthy demographics in Metro areas of the Southlands in the '16 General Election....

I think we need some more posters from the Southlands on here to examine this in more detail....

I could pull some Texas numbers on various elections for many counties, but unfortunately, they make it damn difficult for the Citizens to actually vote on Statewide Citizens Initiatives, so I don't believe it's possibly to pull numbers from abortion and taxation related initiatives, the same way that I used to be ably to easily do for Oregon....

Thanks Extreme Republican!    Looking forward to you picking up that shovel and digging some more, because it looks like you might be on to something that could well explain variances in '16 swings among this Demographic in parts of the Midwest as well.









I know this is really old, but, in light of 2018 (and my being stunned at Bredesen crossing 70% in Davidson County), I went back to look at the 2012-to-2016 swings in Southern Davidson and Williamson Counties in more detail.  In particular, here are five interesting suburban House districts with the 2012, 2016, and 2018 (House) results:

TN-56 (Southern Davidson County, including Belle Meade and other upper-income Republican parts of Davidson County/Nashville):
Romney +23, Clinton +0, 2018 Democrats +2
Total Swing: D+25

TN-61 (Northern Williamson County, centered in Brentwood):
Romney +49, Trump +32, 2018 Republicans +31
Total Swing: D+18

TN-63 (Eastern Williamson County, including East Franklin and Nolensville- and the district I'm moving to in December):
Romney +49, Trump +39, 2018 Republicans +36
Total Swing: D+13

TN-65 (Western Williamson County, including Downtown Franklin and Spring Hill)
Romney +40, Trump +35, 2018 Republicans +36
Total Swing: D+4

The wildcard: TN-49 (Northwestern Rutherford County, including La Vergne and Smyrna):
Romney +19, Trump +20, 2018 Republicans +5
Total Swing: D+14 (R+1 from 2012-2016 only)
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So, in most of these districts, it appears that there was only minor deviation from the 2016 results this year (for the State House), but that doesn't explain the relative mystery of TN-49.  It's probably the least rich of these districts in the Southern suburbs of Nashville if that counts for anything, but there are still wealthy pockets there for sure.  Plus, the incumbent ran in 2018, and you would expect open seats like TN-56 and TN-61 to show the stronger swings (especially since they showed the strongest 2012-2016 swings in the first place), but they barely budged.

I think it makes sense that the Davidson County district has had the strongest anti-Trump swing.  That district is pretty moderate on social issues (and probably even more liberal on the types of cultural issues Trump brings up, like immigration) and is probably also the district that is changing the fastest in terms of the types of people living there, as traditionally Republican neighborhoods like Green Hills start to become the slightest bit trendy.  This district voted No on Amendment 1 in 2014 for sure (as every Davidson precinct did)- and a fair amount of the No voters may have even been in the "pro-life, but..." category but found the language to uncompromising to vote for.  The Republican-No on 1 voters there are probably the types of people who are now beginning to vote Democrat.

But, my other mystery is what caused the significant difference in the size of Democratic swings within Williamson County.  Adjusted for cost of living, Williamson County is the richest county in the United States (and is the richest in the South even without that adjustment).  While there are a couple less populated areas of the county, there isn't really anywhere in the county that isn't well off economically.  The difference in swings between Brentwood and Franklin is something that has perked my attention and is something I want to look at more.  I have always viewed Brentwood and Franklin as very similar to each other, but there are some differences.  Franklin (Downtown Franklin) has the feel of an old Southern town with a lot of history if you know where to look, while Brentwood is mostly a sea of mansions with a "downtown" that includes a few shopping centers but not a city feel.  Cool Springs, the area between them (mostly technically within the Franklin city limits, but with some spillover into Brentwood), is the area I thought would trend the most due to apartment complexes popping up everywhere in the area, but everything I have seen shows that its precincts are trending right at the county average.  I will not talk about that for the rest of this analysis, as Cool Springs is in Central Williamson County and actually finds a way to spill into all three congressional districts in the county).

But, my question remains about TN-65 (which saw virtually no trend) versus TN-61 (that saw a significant trend).  Both are wealthy and are entirely in Williamson County.  TN-65 does include the rural areas of the county, but areas like Fairview pale in terms of population to the major towns of Brentwood and Franklin.  TN-63 includes areas of both Brentwood and Franklin, as well as the also-wealthy town of Nolensville, and saw a swing in the middle of the other two.  I will have to go back and run the Amendment 1 numbers by HD in Williamson County and see if I notice a significant difference like I did when looking at Davidson County.  I think I have raised a couple questions, but, for me, the difference in swings in the Southern Nashville suburbs remains an open question- and we barely even hit on why TN-49 didn't swing until 2018 when all the others did their swinging from 2012-2016 and stayed put in 2018.


Thanks Extreme Republican for posting!!!

This is all extremely interesting....

Thinking that now we are starting to see final official precinct level results roll in from throughout the Unites States, it might be time to start a new thread and revival movement, in the spirit of the '16 thread, to further examine the '18 Midterm results within a National Context, since at least the data we currently have available appears to indicate that these types of communities swung heavily DEM in the '18 US-SEN and US-House Elections in most parts of the Country.

Thoughts???
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mvd10
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« Reply #101 on: November 21, 2018, 03:56:03 PM »

Darien (CT) went from 65-34 Romney to 53-41 Clinton. This time around it narrowly voted for Republican nominee Corey in the senate race (50-49 Corey) and by a larger margin for Stefanowski in the gubernational election (62-36). New Canaan voted basically the same (slightly more Democratic, narrowly went for Murphy in 2018 for instance). These towns were really Republican though, even the 2018 performances pale in comparison to Romney's performance (or downballot candidates in 2010/2014).

Weston (MA) was 51-47 Obama in 2012, 68-26 Clinton in 2016 and 60-35 Warren in 2018.
Dover (MA) was 55-42 Romney in 2012, 59-33 Clinton in 2016 and 54-42 Warren in 2018.
I'm too lazy to post the rest of the results, but Massachussetts and Connecticut basically just have town-level election results.

I haven't seen detailed results, but from what I see in the 2018 TX-senate precinct maps Cruz did about as well as Trump in extremely wealthy Dallas areas (maybe slightly worse), but Beto significantly improved compared to Clinton (third parties were much weaker in TX-sen than they were in the 2016 presidential election). I suspect the same happened in Houston.
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