Alabama 2020: Will Doug Jones win a full term?

[Coldstream]

I’d rate Jones as a better candidate than Nelson, McCaskill or Donnelly worse than Manchin and Tester and roughly even with Heitkamp. I don’t think he’s finished, but I’d rate his chance at 10-20% against a generic Alabama R - but then if the GOP nominate someone terrible again his chance goes up.

[ctherainbow]

But he should go down fighting.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

No, but I still think should give it his all and go down fighting like Heitkamp. The next Democratic president should then give him a cabinet position as a consolation prize (same with Kendra Horn if she's unable to win Oklahoma 5 again).

Shouldn’t cabinet positions be given based on aptitude for the job and not as a consolation political reward

Doug Jones definitely has the aptitude to be Attorney General.

[ElectionsGuy]

No, but I'm confident Nate Silver will give him at least a 30% chance of winning based on incumbency.

[Mr. Smith]

Massachusetts, 2012: Will Scott Brown win a full term?

...And there's your answer.

[IceSpear]

No, but I'm confident Nate Silver will give him at least a 30% chance of winning based on incumbency.

And retail politics.

[Blair]

FWIW there's a lot better choices for AG who A.) Have more experience B.) Are more progressive C.) Have a bigger national profile

But ofc its likely he won't- but in a sense that's liberating for a candidate. He just needs to raise money like crazy, pack a van and start travelling the state in 2020.

[MAINEiac4434]

No, but I still think should give it his all and go down fighting like Heitkamp. The next Democratic president should then give him a cabinet position as a consolation prize (same with Kendra Horn if she's unable to win Oklahoma 5 again).

Shouldn’t cabinet positions be given based on aptitude for the job and not as a consolation political reward

The man who prosecuted the Birmingham bombers and brought justice to six little girls definitely has the aptitude to serve as Attorney General, and certainly more than Jeff Sessions.

[MT Treasurer]

Even I think this race is Lean R, especially if Republicans actually put up a competent candidate.

[UWS]

His chances are as high as the chance that 2 +2 = 5.

[The Mikado]

Probably not, but it will be interesting to see just how far ahead of the Democratic Presidential nominee he runs. I could see a situation where Trump wins Alabama by, say, 21 points, while Jones loses by 9 or so at the same time.

[Calthrina950]

No. After what happened in Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota last week, and what nearly happened to Manchin in West Virginia, it's clear that Jones has no chance. I now think Alabama is Safe Republican for 2020. Jones will lose by at least 10-11%, if not by much more. Any Republican who is not named Roy Moore will defeat him easily.

[Former Kentuckian]

Probably not, but it will be interesting to see just how far ahead of the Democratic Presidential nominee he runs. I could see a situation where Trump wins Alabama by, say, 21 points, while Jones loses by 9 or so at the same time.

I think it will probably look a lot like Kentucky 2016 where Hillary got 32.68% and Jim Gray got 42.7%.

[MAINEiac4434]

So here's a crazy hot take: Jones could win if Sessions is the GOP nominee.

Sessions has become a persona non grata among Trumpist circles for recusing himself from the Mueller investigation. He became Trump's favorite punching bag.

He's still beloved among Alabama Republicans, though, so if he ran he'd win the nomination. But because he's so despised by Trumpists, some unhinged Trump alcolyte mounts a write-in campaign. And that third party candidate takes just enough votes away from Sessions to allow Jones to win by a hair.

[UncleSam]

So here's a crazy hot take: Jones could win if Sessions is the GOP nominee.

Sessions has become a persona non grata among Trumpist circles for recusing himself from the Mueller investigation. He became Trump's favorite punching bag.

He's still beloved among Alabama Republicans, though, so if he ran he'd win the nomination. But because he's so despised by Trumpists, some unhinged Trump alcolyte mounts a write-in campaign. And that third party candidate takes just enough votes away from Sessions to allow Jones to win by a hair.

You’re right. That is crazy.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

So here's a crazy hot take: Jones could win if Sessions is the GOP nominee.

Sessions has become a persona non grata among Trumpist circles for recusing himself from the Mueller investigation. He became Trump's favorite punching bag.

He's still beloved among Alabama Republicans, though, so if he ran he'd win the nomination. But because he's so despised by Trumpists, some unhinged Trump alcolyte mounts a write-in campaign. And that third party candidate takes just enough votes away from Sessions to allow Jones to win by a hair.

I see it, something like this:

Jones: 46.55%
Sessions: 46.49%
Parker: 6.54%
Other/write-in: 0.42%

[Alabama_Indy10]

So here's a crazy hot take: Jones could win if Sessions is the GOP nominee.

Sessions has become a persona non grata among Trumpist circles for recusing himself from the Mueller investigation. He became Trump's favorite punching bag.

He's still beloved among Alabama Republicans, though, so if he ran he'd win the nomination. But because he's so despised by Trumpists, some unhinged Trump alcolyte mounts a write-in campaign. And that third party candidate takes just enough votes away from Sessions to allow Jones to win by a hair.

Sessions is still relatively popular around here. I think Republicans in Alabama will be completely united in 2020 and would be very surprised for any notable person to run a write-in campaign.