Will we have nominees on the morning of February 6?

[Joe Biden 2020]

The way things are going, I'm not sure we will have a nominee in either party on the morning on Wednesday, February 6, 2008.  It could possibly come all the way down to the March 4 states, with other big prizes at stake such as Texas.

[Ebowed]

I am fervently praying that whoever the prospective Democratic nominee is, they announce their conversion to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints on that date.

[Mr. Morden]

Depends on what you mean by "having nominees".  Will any candidate from either party have clinched the nomination in the sense that they'll already have won a majority of delegates?  Almost certainly not.  Will one candidate have won decisively enough on Feb. 5th, such that it's blazingly obvious that they will eventually clinch the nomination officially and be the nominee (such that, say, Intrade will give them a >90% probability of winning the nomination)?  Probably yes, for both parties.  I've explained why I think that's the case in other threads in the last week or so, but I can lay it out in detail again if you like.

[Ben.]

Depends how MI and SC on the GOP side and NV and SC on the Dem side go... if the results remain inconclusive for the GOP and Obama does well in NV and SC then the races remain wide open. In which case Feb 5 could be pretty interesting, not sure about the GOP race, but on the Dem side both the Obama and Clinton campaigns will be able to wage 'national' campaigns on Feb 5 (if both candidates remain in contention till Feb 5th that is).

[elcorazon]

Depends on what you mean by "having nominees".  Will any candidate from either party have clinched the nomination in the sense that they'll already have won a majority of delegates?  Almost certainly not.  Will one candidate have won decisively enough on Feb. 5th, such that it's blazingly obvious that they will eventually clinch the nomination officially and be the nominee (such that, say, Intrade will give them a >90% probability of winning the nomination)?  Probably yes, for both parties.  I've explained why I think that's the case in other threads in the last week or so, but I can lay it out in detail again if you like.

so you think that is Obama wins 3-4 states, including Illinois and Californiaand Nevada, while Hillary wins Florida, NY and NJ and most of the other states, Obama's done.  Or Hillary's done.  Or do you just think that one of the 2 will win more decisively than that... in other words, if Obama wins SC and Nevada, he'll cruise to victory in  the majority of Feb 5 states, or if Hillary wins Nevada, she'll do the same, either way leading to a presumptive nominee at that point.

[Verily]

I am thinking we will not, at least on the Democratic side, although that depends on the results of Nevada in a few days. For the Republicans, it hinges on today; if McCain wins Michigan, it will be very difficult for anyone to stop him winning the nomination.

My current Feb 5 prediction for the Democrats:

Alabama: Obama
Alaska: Obama
Arizona: Clinton
Arkansas: Clinton
California: Clinton
Colorado: Obama
Connecticut: Clinton
Delaware: Obama (I'm really unsure about this one.)
Georgia: Obama
Idaho: Obama
Illinois: Obama
Kansas: Clinton
Massachusetts: Obama
Minnesota: Clinton
Missouri: Obama
New Jersey: Clinton
New Mexico: Clinton
New York: Clinton
North Dakota: Obama
Oklahoma: Edwards
Tennessee: Obama
Utah: Obama

When factoring in proportionality, that gives pretty much equal delegate totals despite Clinton winning most of the big states. (Clinton leads about 820-760, but Obama would lead substantially in pre-Feb 5 delegates for basically equal delegate counts.)

[Mr. Morden]

Depends on what you mean by "having nominees".  Will any candidate from either party have clinched the nomination in the sense that they'll already have won a majority of delegates?  Almost certainly not.  Will one candidate have won decisively enough on Feb. 5th, such that it's blazingly obvious that they will eventually clinch the nomination officially and be the nominee (such that, say, Intrade will give them a >90% probability of winning the nomination)?  Probably yes, for both parties.  I've explained why I think that's the case in other threads in the last week or so, but I can lay it out in detail again if you like.

so you think that is Obama wins 3-4 states, including Illinois and Californiaand Nevada, while Hillary wins Florida, NY and NJ and most of the other states, Obama's done.  Or Hillary's done.  Or do you just think that one of the 2 will win more decisively than that... in other words, if Obama wins SC and Nevada, he'll cruise to victory in  the majority of Feb 5 states, or if Hillary wins Nevada, she'll do the same, either way leading to a presumptive nominee at that point.

I don't know what's going to happen in either NV or SC (though right now it looks like Obama is the clear favorite in SC), nor am I making any particular predictions about exactly how each of the possible NV/SC scenarios affects the national situation.  I just think that the chances are extremely high that going into Feb. 5th one of the two of them will be far enough ahead nationally that they'll be the decisive winner of Feb. 5th, and become the presumptive nominee (rather than some kind of even split, where they each win 10 states or something like that).

If Feb. 5th happened today, for example, Clinton would clearly win, as she's leading nationally by nearly 10 points.  Now maybe in 3 weeks, it'll be Obama who's leading by nearly 10 points, but I just don't think it's that likely that they'll be dead even.  And even if they're kind of close, if one of them wins even a few more states/delegates than the other, the media will probably crown them "the winner of Super Tuesday", and it'll probably be nearly impossible for the other candidate to ever regain enough momentum to make a comeback.

[Ben.]

I am thinking we will not, at least on the Democratic side, although that depends on the results of Nevada in a few days. For the Republicans, it hinges on today; if McCain wins Michigan, it will be very difficult for anyone to stop him winning the nomination.

My current Feb 5 prediction for the Democrats:

Alabama: Obama
Alaska: Obama
Arizona: Clinton
Arkansas: Clinton
California: Clinton
Colorado: Obama
Connecticut: Clinton
Delaware: Obama (I'm really unsure about this one.)
Georgia: Obama
Idaho: Obama
Illinois: Obama
Kansas: Clinton
Massachusetts: Obama
Minnesota: Clinton
Missouri: Obama
New Jersey: Clinton
New Mexico: Clinton
New York: Clinton
North Dakota: Obama
Oklahoma: Edwards
Tennessee: Obama
Utah: Obama

When factoring in proportionality, that gives pretty much equal delegate totals despite Clinton winning most of the big states. (Clinton leads about 820-760, but Obama would lead substantially in pre-Feb 5 delegates for basically equal delegate counts.)

Apart from Kansas that would probably be my hunch if Obama comes out of NV and SC in good shape (of which there should be an evens chance - touch wood!)... it's also worth noting that both candidates will still be picking up delegates in states where they actually lose (for Obama i think he might be able to get decent shares of the vote in both NJ and NY, while CA could be pretty close).

But no campaigns have really started working the Feb 5 states what is more the NV and SC contests are going to have such a big impact on the race that it's probably not worth getting into forcasting the Feb 5 states yet. 

[Jacobtm]

A Republican nominee on Feb. 6 seems likelier than a Democratic one, but far from assured.

Then again, even if one Republican wins big on Feb. 5, he could still end up with far short of a majority of the delegates and or states. If any candidate won 12 states and 40% of the delegates, that would be a huge victory, but far from enough to ensure that someone who won maybe 7 or 8 states and 25% of the delegates won't be able to come back.

[Mr. Morden]

Then again, even if one Republican wins big on Feb. 5, he could still end up with far short of a majority of the delegates and or states. If any candidate won 12 states and 40% of the delegates, that would be a huge victory, but far from enough to ensure that someone who won maybe 7 or 8 states and 25% of the delegates won't be able to come back.

I don't think that'll happen though....though it's *possible*.  If the GOP used the Dems' rules for delegate selection (meaning that every state had to use some variation of proportional representation), then this thing could go on forever.  But since on the GOP side, most states use either WTA by statewide total or WTA by district (which often leads to the statewide winner getting something like 90% of the state's delegates), you could easily have someone leading the crowded GOP field with just about 35% of the vote nationwide, but still winning a clear majority of the delegates.

[War on Want]

Then again, even if one Republican wins big on Feb. 5, he could still end up with far short of a majority of the delegates and or states. If any candidate won 12 states and 40% of the delegates, that would be a huge victory, but far from enough to ensure that someone who won maybe 7 or 8 states and 25% of the delegates won't be able to come back.

I don't think that'll happen though....though it's *possible*.  If the GOP used the Dems' rules for delegate selection (meaning that every state had to use some variation of proportional representation), then this thing could go on forever.  But since on the GOP side, most states use either WTA by statewide total or WTA by district (which often leads to the statewide winner getting something like 90% of the state's delegates), you could easily have someone leading the crowded GOP field with just about 35% of the vote nationwide, but still winning a clear majority of the delegates.

I bet you that after this election the GOP will change this, because of the many angry supporters of failed candidates complaining.

[Gustaf]

I disagree with Mr. Morden. I think the media generally likes the horse-race aspect of these things. In my experience the media tend to make races look more competitive than they really are. It's different when there is only one or two states having a primary because the winner gets so much hype for it. I expect Obama to make it pretty close by Super Tuesday. There is a good chance that Clinton does well enough to finish the race at that point, but even if Obama does better than her she will stay in the race and have a pretty good shot.

For the GOP the winner-take-all system makes a difference obviously. It's fully concievable that the race could go on there too though, especially given all the bad news out of Michigan.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I disagree with Mr. Morden. I think the media generally likes the horse-race aspect of these things. In my experience the media tend to make races look more competitive than they really are.

The media never helped Gore or Kerry when Bush had massive leads.

[Gustaf]

I disagree with Mr. Morden. I think the media generally likes the horse-race aspect of these things. In my experience the media tend to make races look more competitive than they really are.

The media never helped Gore or Kerry when Bush had massive leads.

Doesn't the hackishness ever get you tired?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Let me ask another question related to this.  Is there a possibility one or both parties may not be decided until the convention?  Especially, if the GOP mess that fezzy predicts comes true?

[Mr. Morden]

I think that the only way a Republican nominee will come out on the 6th is if it's Rudy.  If he doesn't dominate, no one will and we'll end up with a big mess.

Because no one besides Giuliani could possibly hold the kind of 10 point national lead he held a few months ago?:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

[Mr. Morden]

Let me ask another question related to this.  Is there a possibility one or both parties may not be decided until the convention?  Especially, if the GOP mess that fezzy predicts comes true?

Well, again, possible, but really unlikely, IMHO.

And as I said in the Intrade thread, if the primaries don't resolve things for, say, the GOP, I can't see them just waiting around for a couple months while the presumptive Dem. nominee starts running their general election campaign.  I assume that the party leadership would try to negotiate whatever deal would inevitably come out of the convention months in advance, so that you could have a presumptive GOP nominee in June, rather than wait all the way until early September.

[Gustaf]

Let me ask another question related to this.  Is there a possibility one or both parties may not be decided until the convention?  Especially, if the GOP mess that fezzy predicts comes true?

That on the other hand is very, very unlikely. There is a small chance, but not much.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Let me ask another question related to this.  Is there a possibility one or both parties may not be decided until the convention?  Especially, if the GOP mess that fezzy predicts comes true?

Well, again, possible, but really unlikely, IMHO.

And as I said in the Intrade thread, if the primaries don't resolve things for, say, the GOP, I can't see them just waiting around for a couple months while the presumptive Dem. nominee starts running their general election campaign.  I assume that the party leadership would try to negotiate whatever deal would inevitably come out of the convention months in advance, so that you could have a presumptive GOP nominee in June, rather than wait all the way until early September.

That is true, because after the Republican convention there would only be exactly two months until Election Day.  So, I would expect that we know the November matchup by March at the latest.

[© tweed]

McCain yes, Democrats no

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The winner take all aspect of the GOP primaries only helps settle things if one candidate wins a majority of the Super Duper Tupersday delegates and/or States.  If they get split three or four ways, there may not be enough momentem to force a decision.

[Lief 🗽]

For the Democrats, I think Clinton will win slightly more delegates, essentially tying the race. But the primaries and caucuses leading to Super Tuesday II (Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont) are all very favorable to Barack Obama, which I would think would give him the momentum to win Ohio and Texas, thus taking the nomination.

[gmo]

Let me ask another question related to this.  Is there a possibility one or both parties may not be decided until the convention?  Especially, if the GOP mess that fezzy predicts comes true?

After scheduling and what I perceived as an overall media lean to establish nominees in a snap, I think if Feb5 leaves either race (but especially both races) still quite scrambled and uncertain there may be a strong swing the other way.  As opposed to talking about somebody's momentum the discussion may dwell on how wide open it is and help keep it open.

But going all the way to the convention is hard to imagine.  Would be interesting though.