Italy 2013: The official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

It looks like PSI is negotiating some names to be put in Bersani's quota of candidates within PD lists. So I suppose they won't field their own list leaving Tabacci as the first (only) party below threshold in the CL.LOL!

That's what happened to MpA in the right-wing coalition in 2008.

[SPQR]

There are so many quotes from Lega Nord politicians about how corrupt Berlusconi is and how they would never,ever ally with him or PdL again.
And they are all from 2012.

But is it really worth the time,when it's blatant that they are just a bunch of (racist) idiots?

[RodPresident]

Voting for SEL is to push Bersani to left and to prevent PD establishment into making new government as Monti II. If I were Italian, I'd vote for Grillo or Civic Revolution.
To Italian people: Who are the candidates to replace Napolitano as President of the Republic?

[Keystone Phil]

To Rod's question: it was supposed to be Monti. I guess that has been kissed goodbye!

[RodPresident]

It will be an interesting election. Can be one elder statesman from the left, like Amato, Prodi or D'Alema? Or somebody outside of politics.

[Keystone Phil]

Isn't D'Alema a more controversial figure though?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't think Presidency will be seriously discussed until we have the result of parliamentary elections. If the left get an absolute majority in both houses, I doubt they'll be very warm on Monti after how he is (and will probably keep) slamming them for the campaign. If there's no clear majority, however, putting Monti there might be a way by PdL/PD to keep him away from Palazzo Chigi... if he accepts.

@Rod: M5S is literally a bunch of crazies. They're not by any means a serious voting options. Civic Revolution might be well meaning, but they'll be pretty useless.

[SPQR]

Voting for SEL is to push Bersani to left and to prevent PD establishment into making new government as Monti II. If I were Italian, I'd vote for Grillo or Civic Revolution.
To Italian people: Who are the candidates to replace Napolitano as President of the Republic?

Grillo?GRILLO?
Oh my...

Anyway PD's lists for the two Houses are already enough to the left.

As for the next President,the only real candidate was Monti,who I suppose is not viable anymore.
Prodi is respected enough,even though many people (in the center-right,obviously) just associate him to TAXES!!11!1!1!1
D'Alema is hated even within the center-left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Prodi would make a fine President (he's certainly more fit for that job than for Prime Ministership).

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, Lega is facing a new scandal, apparently dealing with the embezzlement of the funds allotted to their Senate group.

Hopefully this will make their participation to the right coalition nigh irrelevant.

[Keystone Phil]

So I guess the Lega leadership didn't care about aligning with Berlusconi after they called him corrupt; they'll just end up saying, "So are we! Thus, we are running together!"

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Isn't accusing an Italian politician of being corrupt like just accusing him of being a politician anyway?

[SPQR]

Isn't accusing an Italian politician of being corrupt like just accusing him of being a politician anyway?

Nah.
Just go and check the number of condemned politicians between the various parties.

[Andrea]

PDL and Lega reached their coalition agreement. As for what the agreement is supposed to say, I will forget it as they have a good track record in backtracking saying we all misunderstood.

[Andrea]

Looking at the Senate

Berlusconi led Veltroni by 9.3% in 2008 at national level

The following regions were won by Berlusconi:

Sicily (25 seats available overall) 25.8% lead
Lombardy (49) 23.1%
Veneto (24) 22.8%
Campania (29) 17.2%
Friuli Venezia Giulia (7) 12.4%
Apulia (20) 11.7%
Piedmont (22): 9%
Calabria (10) 8%
Sardinia (Eight) 3.3%
Lazio (28) 2.8%
Abruzzo (7) 2.6%
Liguria (Eight) 1%

PD carried

Tuscany (18) 16.1
Emilia Romagna (22) 12.8%
Umbria (7) 10.8%
Marche (Eight) 8%
Basilicata (7) 7.6%

Molise having just 2 seats, it's likely to end up 1-1

Abroad, 2 seats in Europe (so another 1-1 tie), 2 seats in South America (PD finished third last time), 1 each in North America (PDL won by 1.2%) and  Oceania/Asia/Africa/Antartide (PD won by 1.7%).

Valle d'Aosta and Trentino still have FPTP constituencies. I read somewhere SVP made a pact with PD in Alto Adige.

A further problem for PD (other that the worst regions for them are the ones with more seats in play) is that if they lose Veneto, Lombardy and Sicily again, they won't get all the opposion seats but they will probably have to divide them with Grillo and Monti (they should get 8%).

[Iannis]

You can say what you want but there is literally no way in hell Monti can be labelled as anything other than right-wing.

If you identify liberal with right-wing, well, but it seems that in 2013 we don't use this kind of labels for european liberals. very reasonable

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Lega needs to die slowly and painfully.

[SPQR]

Andrea's analysis actually confirms that Berlusconi's win in 2008 was anything but a landslide...4 regions within 3.3%,which would have dramatically changed the composition of the Senate.

Anyway,the campaign will now be all around the Senate,at least for PD. There is no way that Berlusconi will get close enough at a national level,his only hope is that his southern crooks (Grande Sud,one of the parties with the higher number of criminals in history) hand him Sicilia and Calabria,and that Lega helps him with Lombardia and Veneto.
In that case,as Andrea pointed out, the fact that the opposition seats would have to be split amongst PD,Grillo and Monti would make a PD majority in the Senate impossible,and only God knows what would happen then.


Final note: there are talks of a "non-aggression pact" between PD and Ingroia's Movement in the Senate race,at least in the battleground regions.

[Keystone Phil]

You guys might not be able to but would anyone care to handicap the North/Central American race in the Camera? I know PD and PdL each got a seat last time. I don't know who is running for PD or the other parties though I'll be filled in soon... A heads up by anyone (Andrea?) would be appreciated though.

I'm going to be helping the PdL incumbent (who actually lives ten minutes away from me). He's a pretty well known figure in the Italian-American community (specifically in Philly where he won by seven points. He carried the U.S. and the overall constituency by three points) so that should be a big help but Italians living abroad and dual citizens will obviously have other issues on their mind as well.

It will be a very interesting experience to be involved in a foreign campaign while in the U.S. His campaign kickoff is actually a month from today in my neighborhood. That ought to be something. I might not be too hot on the abroad seats in principle but I do love that Italy has it. It makes it more interesting to observe and gives me a chance to witness and engage in the campaign first hand.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm getting word that Berlusconi is (again) stepping aside and Alfano will be the center-right's candidate for Prime Minister though it looks like Maroni wants Tremonti as the candidate.

Berlusconi is supposedly the "coalition leader" but Alfano will be the candidate for Prime Minister. What a campaign.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Maybe that was Lega's terms for joining the coalition.

[Keystone Phil]

Maybe that was Lega's terms for joining the coalition.

It had to be but, as far as I can understand, they're still pushing for Tremonti as the Prime Minister candidate while it seems like Alfano is getting the nod.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm getting word that Berlusconi is (again) stepping aside and Alfano will be the center-right's candidate for Prime Minister though it looks like Maroni wants Tremonti as the candidate.

Berlusconi is supposedly the "coalition leader" but Alfano will be the candidate for Prime Minister. What a campaign.

Wow.

Phil, this Alfano character is from the Mezzogiorno, right? How much do you know about him?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Crazy election just became even crazier.

[Keystone Phil]

He's from Sicily. He was elected in 2001 and was Berlusconi's Justice Minister during his final term. He became party leader when Berlusconi resigned in 2011.