2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Virginiá]

Then after 2020, if the commission passes, he should get an SLC centric district.

Yes, ideally. But it should be noted that even if that initiative passes, it is only a statute, and Republicans can repeal it with a majority vote. I'm a little skeptical it will remain unaltered or even at all regardless of how much support voters get it, but then again, maybe I'm just too jaded.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Romney pulls Love over the finish line.

[ltomlinson31]

https://twitter.com/jonathankappler/status/1051909760814108672?s=19

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/jonathankappler/status/1051909760814108672?s=19

Decent numbers. This race will be close.

[Devils30]

The Trump approval seems very credible here...+2 and down from his +10 in 2016. This and the VA-2 seem realistic unlike these Nevada polls with Trump more popular than in 2016.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Siena will release a NY-27 poll tomorrow morning (one of their polls, not part of the Upshot project).

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1051833792145575936?s=19

Why the huge swing in the Iron range ?

Because that's a junk poll.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1051939004512460801

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1051833792145575936?s=19

Why the huge swing in the Iron range ?

Because that's a junk poll.
[/quote]

No, this is a junk poll:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1051939004512460801

[Xing]

Republicans flipping MN-08 and OR-05 by 15 and 23 respectively... either there's going to be a red wave way more massive than 2010 and 2014 combined, or pollsters don't know what the hell is going on right now. I wonder which it is...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

No, this is a junk poll:

There can be more than one junk poll, you know. Just because a second poll is a junk poll doesn't make the first poll non-junky

[MT Treasurer]

R+15 is obviously hard to believe, but Stauber winninig definitely isn’t, even if you believe the 2016 trends were just a "one-off" (which is certainly a bold assumption).

[Virginiá]

R+15 is obviously hard to believe, but Stauber winninig definitely isn’t, even if you believe the 2016 trends were just a "one-off" (which is certainly a bold assumption).

Personally, when I have some doubt about the staying power of 2016 trends in some states, I try to take the actual % share Trump or Clinton got and work with that. In this case, Trump won some of these districts big but he only actually got 53.1% in MN-01 and 54.2% in MN-08. Though MN-07 is quite a blowout.

In the end, Trump only got 44.92% in Minnesota, statewide. That is pretty terrible, so it's not like these people seem to love him. With that, I'm not convinced Democrats are never going to pull in 5, 6, 7 or more point wins again in MN. It just might be that such future wins dig deeper in metro areas and leave a district like MN-01 or MN-08 somewhat less competitive, at least in the near future.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1051939004512460801

Folks, we have a winner for worst poll of the cycle. UMontana can breathe a huge sigh of relief, because their Tester+24 polls looks like the pinnacle of survey analysis by comparison.

[KingSweden]

R+15 is obviously hard to believe, but Stauber winninig definitely isn’t, even if you believe the 2016 trends were just a "one-off" (which is certainly a bold assumption).

I would be unsurprised by, let’s say... Stauber +5

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1051939004512460801

Folks, we have a winner for worst poll of the cycle. UMontana can breathe a huge sigh of relief, because their Tester+24 polls looks like the pinnacle of survey analysis by comparison.

This poll got entered in the 538 database, and immediately dropped Schrader's win % from 99.8% to 84%.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article220063970.html

FL-26 Mason-Dixon: Curbelo (R-inc) 46, Mucarael-Powell (D) 45

[wbrocks67]

PA-07

Susan Wild (D) 49%
Marty Nothstein (R) 35%

http://www.wfmz.com/news/pennsylvania/republicans-make-gains-in-second-69-newsdesales-university-poll/807473989

[OneJ]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article220063970.html

FL-26 Mason-Dixon: Curbelo (R-inc) 46, Mucarael-Powell (D) 45

At least I can say with certainty that Curbelo is not as safe as we once thought he was.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1051939004512460801

Folks, we have a winner for worst poll of the cycle. UMontana can breathe a huge sigh of relief, because their Tester+24 polls looks like the pinnacle of survey analysis by comparison.

This poll got entered in the 538 database, and immediately dropped Schrader's win % from 99.8% to 84%.

I mean, so did the Tester one.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL. The Democratic wave may be overestimated, but the idea that a Democrat will beat Blanche Lincoln is hilarious.

[Ebsy]

PA-07

Susan Wild (D) 49%
Marty Nothstein (R) 35%

http://www.wfmz.com/news/pennsylvania/republicans-make-gains-in-second-69-newsdesales-university-poll/807473989

"Make gains, still down by 14 points".

[2016]

New CNBC News Poll suggesting NO WAVE ala 2010....Democrats +6

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/mixed-signals-for-democrat-blue-wave-in-november-cnbc-survey-says.html

That FL District Telemundo Poll should give Democrats some concern too. If this were a WAVE Curbelo would be done and dusted but he ain't.

Over the past week or so we've seen a pretty noticeable shift. Will it last that's now the Question. GOP isn't done here just yet despite CNN & ABC saying otherwise.

[ON Progressive]

New CNBC News Poll suggesting NO WAVE ala 2010....Democrats +6

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/mixed-signals-for-democrat-blue-wave-in-november-cnbc-survey-says.html

That FL District Telemundo Poll should give Democrats some concern too. If this were a WAVE Curbelo would be done and dusted but he ain't.

Over the past week or so we've seen a pretty noticeable shift. Will it last that's now the Question. GOP isn't done here just yet despite CNN & ABC saying otherwise.

http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1006-Ftop.pdf

As we can see here, there is no way there's going to be a red wave in 2010! Democrats ahead in the generic ballot by 3, surely Republicans are doomed this time!

[2016]

New CNBC News Poll suggesting NO WAVE ala 2010....Democrats +6

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/mixed-signals-for-democrat-blue-wave-in-november-cnbc-survey-says.html

That FL District Telemundo Poll should give Democrats some concern too. If this were a WAVE Curbelo would be done and dusted but he ain't.

Over the past week or so we've seen a pretty noticeable shift. Will it last that's now the Question. GOP isn't done here just yet despite CNN & ABC saying otherwise.

http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1006-Ftop.pdf

As we can see here, there is no way there's going to be a red wave in 2010! Democrats ahead in the generic ballot by 3, surely Republicans are doomed this time!

LOL, Newsweek was crap.