The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[gottsu]

Buttigieg says he'll decide by Thanksgiving and announce his decision publicly shortly thereafter, presumably before Christmas.

I would definitely support him and maybe even donate, but he stands no chance.

So why he starts like he has almost no chances?

[gottsu]

Another instance of Jeff Flake calling for someone to run against Trump, despite voting for Kavanaugh and doing nothing to really oppose Trump.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/flake-calls-trump-supporters-lock-her-up-chants-disturbing-and-fears-for-future-of-republican-party

Umm Jeff, maybe you should run yourself 

Doubt he wants to embarrass himself like that

[gottsu]

Harris was in Iowa today stumping for Democrats and the crowds were quite impressive for a candidate this early in the stage...

https://twitter.com/ZachWahls/status/1054830482314137600

https://twitter.com/caseytolan/status/1054830090188742656

Because she will run as a "second Obama" or "Obama in a skirt" in 2020. Look at her ethnic origin and career. I noticed that earlier.

[gottsu]

Sasse says it’s unlikely he’ll run for president in 2020:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/ben-sasse-donald-trump-challenge-2020

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The way Sasse is talking, he might retire outright, and leave an open seat.

Too bad the Democrats don't have anyone in Nebraska who could make the race interesting...

So why he run for Senate in 2014? To leave in 2020?

He truly would want to run for president, just like Cruz, Rubio, Haley or ex. DeSantis (from the younger generation of GOP-ers) but he sees that has nearly no chances.

[gottsu]

I already mentioned Harris’s visit to Nevada this week, but Steyer was there too:

https://news3lv.com/news/local/early-voting-poised-to-finish-strong-in-clark-county

Michael Avenatti has released his first ever campaign ad, aimed toward the midterms next week.

https://www.politico.com/video/2018/11/01/michael-avenattis-first-2020-ad-067458

God, no!

[gottsu]

O’Malley’s in Nevada today:

https://twitter.com/MartinOMalley/status/1058834089061560320

He’s also now started putting out campaign-style Youtube videos at a rate of more than one a day, in his “This We Believe” series.  E.g.:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc7OrZxOR3w

These videos are full of his fortune cookie-like sayings, e.g.:

“We are stumbling backwards into the future, but the world only spins forward.”

“No people ever mastered the winds of change by pretending that they weren’t blowing.”

Can’t wait for him to talk about how love is a superpower in the primary debates.

"We won the last two Industrial Revolutions, and we can win this one too."

Well, that's certainly an interesting way of putting it.

But if he ends his "testing the waters" he will end up still the same as in 2016... He would have been a serious candidate only by 1976 conditions...

I tend to like him, he's a decent mainstream Dem, he would have been a nice, smooth, but also unobtrusive president, but facts about him are layered by me above...

[gottsu]

https://twitter.com/amanbatheja/status/1073709813123739648

That dog won't hunt with Democrats. Female would be much more preferred.

[gottsu]

https://twitter.com/amanbatheja/status/1073709813123739648

I'm not sure a two white male tickets would play well with the base. Something like that shows how disconnected Biden is.

I think Biden shouldn't run for other reasons.

So what are your reasons?

[gottsu]

V. much doubt she is thinking of 2020, but could be on the trail.

BBC: Angelina Jolie hints at move into politics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46699457

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Angelina Jolie? Who's next? Lindsey Lohan?

Ronald Reagan.

[gottsu]

https://twitter.com/alexburnsNYT/status/1079026674103189507

I was just about to post that story.  Here are the relevant excerpts:

Booker, Gillibrand, Harris, and Warren are moving to put the pieces in place for their campaigns, and “are poised to enter the 2020 presidential race in the next several weeks”, though some of them may start with an exploratory committee (though of course that de facto means that you’re running):

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Other tidbits from the story:

-Gillibrand’s likely campaign manager is Jess Fassler (“her current top aide”).

-Harris’s likely campaign manager is Juan Rodriguez, who ran her 2016 Senate campaign.

-Booker is eyeing Addisu Demissie (who managed his first Senate race and Newsom’s gubernatorial campaign) for campaign manager.

-Warren is likely to pick Dan Geldon (her former chief of staff) for “a senior role directing strategy”.

-Hickenlooper’s likely campaign manager is Bradley Komar, a longtime aide to him.

-Harris will likely base her campaign in Baltimore or Atlanta rather than in California because “her political advisers have concluded that for practical reasons it is essential that she have a base in the Eastern Time zone”.  Nonetheless, she’ll still maintain a sizable office in CA.

-Bloomberg is conducting polling to test his prospects, and will likely decide by the end of February.

-Brown, Klobuchar, and O’Rourke are all moving slower than the others, and don’t expect them to announce in January (though you never know).

-Nonetheless, O’Rourke has “mentioned to political strategists that he’d like to hire a female campaign manager”.

Let the games begin! Go Kamala!

[gottsu]

Warren, Harris, and Gillibrand going with previous campaign members surprised me. I thought they'd have a host of people to raid from Obama/Clinton-world, but it seems not.

Maybe none of them are Obama or Clinton associates? Senate is not a Clintonist stronghold, like DNC.

[gottsu]

Warren, Harris, and Gillibrand going with previous campaign members surprised me. I thought they'd have a host of people to raid from Obama/Clinton-world, but it seems not.

Maybe none of them are Obama or Clinton associates? Senate is not a Clintonist stronghold, like DNC.

Definitely not Warren. A lot of people associate Gillibrand with Clinton based on their past relationships, but Harris-Clinton are known to be close and Harris is generally known to be the favorite of the establishment.

I would agree that Kamala is a establishment pet and also is a woman (of color) which is important for them and likely the longer Kamala's campaign will last, the more support she will be getting from Clintons, as they may brand her as "Second Obama" or "Obama in a skirt" (due to her ethnicity)

But let's don't forget about Warren-Hillary friendship. Warren may have bitched about 2016 primaries, but HRC actively considered her to be VP, and they have been friends for a long years before, so that case is complicated, I was just loosely wondering about the reasons why these candidates above aren't getting establishment's support at the inceptions of their campaigns. Maybe they didn't want to get too early in the fight or doesn't want to bet on the wrong horse as well?

[gottsu]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/02/us/politics/bernie-sanders-campaign-sexism.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&fbclid=IwAR082Exbw6pzFCKajvZ9sATYBcFwt6H1XKbpVYp_p7a2PKss7ALp9cMla14

Bernie is no longer cool.

[gottsu]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/02/us/politics/bernie-sanders-campaign-sexism.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&fbclid=IwAR082Exbw6pzFCKajvZ9sATYBcFwt6H1XKbpVYp_p7a2PKss7ALp9cMla14

Bernie is no longer cool.

Yeah, this hurts the chances of him even running.

It's typical to America and American politics nowadays and for a few dozen years back. You can be a god one day, you can have the large and intrusive media hype, you can have the crowds on meetings and campaign trails, but just another day you can have ex. reports of affair with young staffer from your office from the same guys who yesterday pumped your ex. presidential chances, and people will start to hate you for no reason and they will don't recall now how they cheered for you at ex. your rallies. It's all fluid and cyclical. You did your time well, but now we kindly want you to get off the stage. We want some fresh blood, new spur, and you don't count to that list.

Such great presidents like FDR left no real legacy in minds of most Americans, because they simply forgot about him when he died and Harry Truman became his successor, and they forgot about Truman when Eisenhower take office and so on. Bernie Sanders is not coming out of ordinary posted by me above. The same will happen to peoples like Beto, Warren or Trump, trust me. They all have their time set by American public life, and when it will expire, not one of former ex. Beto's followers will even bother about that. He or she would be worshipping another idol, whose star will fade just like it did before. And it would come full circle.

[gottsu]

Such great presidents like FDR left no real legacy in minds of most Americans, because they simply forgot about him when he died and Harry Truman became his successor, and they forgot about Truman when Eisenhower take office and so on.

Um...you lost me here. The people who lived through the Depression and WWII very, very, very much remembered FDR throughout their entire lives, whether they loved him or (in smaller numbers) hated him. The memory of FDR only has somewhat faded as those people are basically all dead now.

To be frank, New Deal reforms touched relatively small to very small group of people, but there was an large impression in America that these reforms are touching nearly anyone. Does New Deal produced some kind of legacy organizations or adherents who would live way long after Roosevelt's death? Only historians and biographers are working on that in my opinion.

Does his part in WWII is remembered in today's America? You just answered that question above, those who knew that are dead now, and only historians and biographers write books about that which no one really reads (I mean, reading in my country isn't high too).

That means FDR left no real legacy to me.

[gottsu]

I got information from someone (claims to be close to Ohio Democratic Party and DNC) that Sherrod Brown would have guaranteed VP slot to somebody who will win D's primary.

Do you think this is real?

[gottsu]

I got information from someone (claims to be close to Ohio Democratic Party and DNC) that Sherrod Brown would have guaranteed VP slot to somebody who will win D's primary.

Further informations on that are as follows:

- Brown would be also having a blank cheque whether to run or not in Democratic primaries, it has to be up to him only

- He was offered to be a horse of "Rust Belt Act" (whatever that name means) which is being reportedly in the works

- That guaranteed Brown's VP slot would not only limit to the winner of Dem primaries, but to any other Democratic contender, I was told that he would get also guaranteed VP offers from "everyone" contending Democratic primaries

- That case about losing a Senate seat when choosing Sherrod for VP in 2020 (because Ohio governor is a Republican) was of course being considered, but according to the informations I got the stakes in 2020 are higher than losing a Senate seat, because it goes about presidency, and such decision was taken concerning that problem

Have you ever heard of "Rust Belt Act"?

[gottsu]

I got information from someone (claims to be close to Ohio Democratic Party and DNC) that Sherrod Brown would have guaranteed VP slot to somebody who will win D's primary.

- That case about losing a Senate seat when choosing Sherrod for VP in 2020 (because Ohio governor is a Republican) was of course being considered, but according to the informations I got the stakes in 2020 are higher than losing a Senate seat, because it goes about presidency, and such decision was taken concerning that problem

This is absurd logic, the 2020 Senate map favors the GOP as is, why run the risk of losing both the White House and remaining the minority party in the Senate?

I was also told that such decision was made because long-term planning in American politics is not so common, because no one knows what will happen in, say, 5 or 10 years or even earlier, some economic crisis or ex. drought in agriculture. That decision was allegedly taken in Brown's Senate staff and DNC.

[gottsu]

Oh and I'd love it if Hogan primaries Trump. He's got nothing to lose in doing so.

[gottsu]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-18/kamala-harris-s-early-no-on-wall-may-give-her-an-edge-in-2020

Bloomberg's piece about Kamala. That's why she has to be the first female president. She is credible and honest.

[gottsu]

NYT: Hogan is considering primarying Trump and is reaching to the Kristol NT group and others in Iowa. Weld considering running in the GOP primary, while Sasse has gotten cold feet and Flake/Kasich have joined TV.

But after RNC has declared they will support DJT, how Hogan would run his campaign? He would must rely really much on big donors outside RNC or congressional Republicans (both doesn't fancy DJT). Do you think guys that this is possible?

[gottsu]

I got information from someone (claims to be close to Ohio Democratic Party and DNC) that Sherrod Brown would have guaranteed VP slot to somebody who will win D's primary.

Further informations on that are as follows:

- Brown would be also having a blank cheque whether to run or not in Democratic primaries, it has to be up to him only

- He was offered to be a horse of "Rust Belt Act" (whatever that name means) which is being reportedly in the works

- That guaranteed Brown's VP slot would not only limit to the winner of Dem primaries, but to any other Democratic contender, I was told that he would get also guaranteed VP offers from "everyone" contending Democratic primaries

- That case about losing a Senate seat when choosing Sherrod for VP in 2020 (because Ohio governor is a Republican) was of course being considered, but according to the informations I got the stakes in 2020 are higher than losing a Senate seat, because it goes about presidency, and such decision was taken concerning that problem

Have you ever heard of "Rust Belt Act"?

Here are the latest updates:

- Harris (her person, candidacy and campaign) have been well accepted in the circles close to DNC;

- She's ready to kinda cooperate with DNC along DNC's legislative agenda (if such thing will be suiting her needs and views). This is important, because DNC wants to and plan to coordinate the outlook of the Party with the primary candidates, and wants it all to be made run smoothly (so Bernie Bros wouldn't get DNC support);

- Staffs of Harris and Brown are have to be coordinating calendars of each own to talk around questions of "Rust Belt Act" (of which I mentioned above in the quotation);

- Brown would decide whether to start or not within two months, if he'll decide to run, he'll officially launch (like KH did last day in Oakland) his campaign on May 1st (the Labor Day) in Chicago;

- But if Brown decide not to run, he'll be in Windy City anyway and along with KH would presumably officially unveil "Rust Belt Act" in the name of the rest of Democrats and DNC;

- That thing of course, would be meaning that Brown joins Harris on her ticket.

[gottsu]

I got information from someone (claims to be close to Ohio Democratic Party and DNC) that Sherrod Brown would have guaranteed VP slot to somebody who will win D's primary.

Further informations on that are as follows:

- Brown would be also having a blank cheque whether to run or not in Democratic primaries, it has to be up to him only

- He was offered to be a horse of "Rust Belt Act" (whatever that name means) which is being reportedly in the works

- That guaranteed Brown's VP slot would not only limit to the winner of Dem primaries, but to any other Democratic contender, I was told that he would get also guaranteed VP offers from "everyone" contending Democratic primaries

- That case about losing a Senate seat when choosing Sherrod for VP in 2020 (because Ohio governor is a Republican) was of course being considered, but according to the informations I got the stakes in 2020 are higher than losing a Senate seat, because it goes about presidency, and such decision was taken concerning that problem

Have you ever heard of "Rust Belt Act"?

Here are the latest updates:

- Harris (her person, candidacy and campaign) have been well accepted in the circles close to DNC;

- She's ready to kinda cooperate with DNC along DNC's legislative agenda (if such thing will be suiting her needs and views). This is important, because DNC wants to and plan to coordinate the outlook of the Party with the primary candidates, and wants it all to be made run smoothly (so Bernie Bros wouldn't get DNC support);

- Staffs of Harris and Brown are have to be coordinating calendars of each own to talk around questions of "Rust Belt Act" (of which I mentioned above in the quotation);

- Brown would decide whether to start or not within two months, if he'll decide to run, he'll officially launch (like KH did last day in Oakland) his campaign on May 1st (the Labor Day) in Chicago;

- But if Brown decide not to run, he'll be in Windy City anyway and along with KH would presumably officially unveil "Rust Belt Act" in the name of the rest of Democrats and DNC;

- That thing of course, would be meaning that Brown joins Harris on her ticket.

May 1 is way too late for someone polling as low as Brown is to announce, and I find it hard to believe Harris would announce a running mate that early - it would come across as desperate, besides the concerns about the Senate others have noted. How sure are you this source is credible?

Because DNC doesn't want a long or bruising primary - the candidate must be chosen as fast as possible. I said last time that Brown staff is fully aware that Dems could lose a Senate seat, but they  had discussed that and jointly reached a conclusion that WH stakes are higher than a Senate seat. That's the explanation that was given to me. Maybe that situation with Dems is just as 2000 GOP primary, when Bush 43 was chosen after Super Tuesday in March, I don't know.

[gottsu]

And now, one day after saying "we'll make the decision soon", Biden says "I don't have any particular timetable":

https://wtvr.com/2019/01/29/joe-biden-says-hes-in-no-hurry-to-make-a-2020-announcement/

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His aides should convince him to write a doctoral thesis about how to delay his decision on whether to start or not after he'll end his procrastination major!

[gottsu]

What do you think guys if Clintons would accept Schultz and try to promote him?