Italy 2013: The official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

My 75% prediction is obviously wrong.

You think it will be higher or lower than that?

[Keystone Phil]

My 75% prediction is obviously wrong.

You think it will be higher or lower than that?

If the 10 PM update is down right points from 2008, I think his point is that it will obviously be lower.

[Hash]

A new results thread would be a fine idea, given how long this one has gotten already.

[Antonio the Sixth]

My 75% prediction is obviously wrong.

You think it will be higher or lower than that?

If the 10 PM update is down right points from 2008, I think his point is that it will obviously be lower.

But the drop happened so suddenly from 7 to 10. I wonder what that could mean...

A new results thread would be a fine idea, given how long this one has gotten already.

Yeah, you're right. I'll do one in a couple hours.

[Niemeyerite]

At what time do polls close tomorrow?

My prediction:

IBC 34.5%
Berlusconi 27%
M5S 22.5%
Monti 9%
Ingroia 5%
Others 2%

Turnout 72%

[SPQR]

Checked out some of the polls myself. Italy does not really seem to have invented socio-economic background analysis - its all horse-race top numbers.

Nevertheless, as the Senate minimum voting age is 25, it might be possible to infere on the 18-25 vote by comparing Camera and Senate polling (assuming the pollsters are filtering out non-eligible respondents for their Senate results).

The table below lists the Camera minus Senate differences per coalition for the Feb. 8 Ipsos poll (the only one I have found so far that covers both chambers nationally):

Bersani              -0.7          
Berlusconi          -0.6        
Grillo                 +0.4            
Monti                 +1.3            
Ingroia              +0.1  
others                -0,5        

This indicates that both Bersani and Berlusconi are having problems with the youth vote, which is instead being absorbed by Grillo and, surprisingly, Monti.

It's not just that.
There are quite a few people who vote for Ingroia in the Camera and vote for Bersani in the Senate,especially in battleground regions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If a new results thread isn't created by someone (when such a thread is needed) then I'll split this one: this is a pretty basic convenience issue.

[Andrea]

They close at 3PM Italian time

@Antonio

I think it will lower at this point...unless they all go to vote before going to work tomorrow. But with current umemployment rate, some may prefer to stay in bed.

[Keystone Phil]

If a new results thread isn't created by someone (when such a thread is needed) then I'll split this one: this is a pretty basic convenience issue.

Antonio said he will start one later tonight. I think this should be kept open until early tomorrow. We can still have some general discussion here.

As for Julio's question, polls close at 3 PM (Italian time) with an exit poll released once the polls close.

[Niemeyerite]

Thanks, Andrea and Phil.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is it OK if I open the results thread at 8PM Western (ie, 11PM Eastern and 5AM European)? I'll try to go sleep early so that I can wake up early for tomorrow's results.

I can keep this thread open until I wake up tomorrow, so that you guys can still post here until polls close in Italy.

[MaxQue]

My 75% prediction is obviously wrong.

You think it will be higher or lower than that?

If the 10 PM update is down right points from 2008, I think his point is that it will obviously be lower.

But the drop happened so suddenly from 7 to 10. I wonder what that could mean...

A new results thread would be a fine idea, given how long this one has gotten already.

Yeah, you're right. I'll do one in a couple hours.

I think than Phil explanation is right. There was football tonight and some people listened to it instead of going voting.

[RogueBeaver]

Leaked exits apparently say Bersani by 5, Monti underperforming.

[Keystone Phil]

Leaked exits apparently say Bersani by 5, Monti underperforming.

Underperforming when he was already expected to get 10-15%? Oh my.

[MaxQue]

Leaked exits apparently say Bersani by 5, Monti underperforming.

Underperforming when he was already expected to get 10-15%? Oh my.

Maybe the poster who predicted 9.7% wasn't that far of the real answer. Well, for sure, those exits will be off, since voting isn't finished yet.

[RogueBeaver]

Monti: Towards the lower end of that, 11% or so.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Poor Monti. He deserves to the be the face of the Italian center-right, not a washed-up perverted old huckster like Berlusconi.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's his fault. He had his chance, he cocked it up.

[RogueBeaver]

He's not a politician. I dunno what a post-SB PDL will look like given that it's more personality cult than ideologically-based political party. An ICB/Monti Senate coalition might push Bersani a bit farther on the economic front, since his own track record is decidedly mixed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bersani by 5 is a bit worrisome (especially for Senate). Do we have any idea about the voting patterns of people who go vote on Mondays?

[Keystone Phil]

Bersani by 5 is a bit worrisome (especially for Senate). Do we have any idea about the voting patterns of people who go vote on Mondays?

I know I'll be attacked for sounding like I broken record but Milan will be up not because they're normally second day voters but because of today's circumstances.

I'm looking at the major population centers and a few things stand out:

Turnout in Naples is way down (ten points). Berlusconi easily won the city in 2008 but the situation was very different. Since then (aside from the regional election), PdL has struggled in Campania. I'm under the impression that lower turnout in the city proper will help but news isn't much better in the countryside, where turnout is down about eight points.

Rome's turnout is slightly down but the countryside is drastically down. That's bad for Berlusconi. Really no other way to slice it.

On the flip side, Tuscany's numbers are surprisingly bad. Emilia-Romagna was close to matching their 2008 numbers at the 19:00 update. Now, it's down by five. Puglia is at 47.66% compared to 56.11% in 2008. Basilicata is at 47.08%/56.55% in 2008.

This could end up being very interesting.

[SPQR]

He's not a politician. I dunno what a post-SB PDL will look like given that it's more personality cult than ideologically-based political party. An ICB/Monti Senate coalition might push Bersani a bit farther on the economic front, since his own track record is decidedly mixed.

There is no such thing as a post-SB PDL.

Just remember that,when Berlusconi had semi-retired and Alfano seemed to have become the new leader,PDL was closer to 10% than 20%.

[Franknburger]

O.k., here is my projection. Uninformed as I am, I may as well get bold. First my assumptions:

Turnout will be lower than last, time, but not that low. I expect it at 75.5%. Reduced turnout will primarily affect younger to middle age low-info voters, and as such hurt mostly Berlusconi, but also the other 'traditional' candidates (Monti, Bersani). Cell-phone only has been under-polled (as everywhere), meaning that candidates / lists with appeal to young urban voters wil overperform relatively to the polling.
The low-info female demography (female equivalent to 'blue-collar Joe Siy-pack, let's call them white coat workers, or Gianna Piccolo) will make up much of the 'undecideds'. They primarily vote on personality, and have traditionally been attracted by Berlusconi, but his sex scandals have hurt his standing with them, which is among the reasons for lower turnout. Bersani and Monti have no appeal to them, while Grillo, Ingroya and Vendola may have some.

Now my prediction (average of last polls in brackets, makes is easier for me to calculate swings):

PD (29.8 ):                    29.1
SEL (3.9)                        4.7
other Bersani (0.7)          0.6
Bersani (34.4)             34.4

PDL (20.3)                      20.2
Lega (5.1)                        4.7
Other Berlusconi (4.0)       3.9
Berlusconi (29.4)         29.0

Grillo (15.3)                    16.2

Monti (9.5)                       8.7
UDC (3.1)                        3.0  
FLI   (0.9)                        0.7
Centro (13.5)               12.4            

Ingroya (4.2)                    4.4

Regional (incl SVP)            0.6

Others                              3.0  

[minionofmidas]

Poor Monti. He deserves to the be the face of the Italian center-right, not a washed-up perverted old huckster like Berlusconi.

I couldn't disagree more. Being a washed-up old huckster like Berlusconi is exactly what Monti deserves.

[Keystone Phil]

Grillo, being a real attention whore, decided to wait until today to vote so all of the coverage seems to be about him in the final hours.