Would you agree with this list of political eras and realignments (user search)
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  Would you agree with this list of political eras and realignments (search mode)
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Author Topic: Would you agree with this list of political eras and realignments  (Read 3275 times)
Virginiá
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« on: May 19, 2017, 11:27:06 AM »

...and somehow manage to win back congress in 2010 in the largest wave since the 1930's. That's a very clear cut sign that the Reagan era in politics is still the dominant force in this country. Obama's approval rating was nearly twice that of Bush yet the country threw the Democrats out of office during his term with the same level of condemnation as they did for Bush and the GOP.[/color]

Wouldn't the Democrats success downballot from 1986 - 1992, at the time, serve as a similar argument that we weren't in a new era? Although, I suppose GHWB's election would also be a counterargument. I think you are right that we are still milling about in the Reagan era, but the 2010 election alone doesn't seem like the best angle. The timing of the beginning of Obama's presidency meant that Democrats had to absorb a lot of anger, as the recession was still going on when he took office. In light of that, the PPACA was probably bad timing, even if well-intentioned. All of that was bound to be hard on Democrats, and all things considered, their House PV loss wasn't as drastic as the actual offices lost would suggest.

Also, and I know I'm nitpicking here (Tongue), but I'd say 1958 and 1974 were bigger waves if you consider more than just the House of Representatives. Democrats gained 15 Senate (almost 19) seats in '58, and both waves had huge implications at the state level.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,884
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2017, 12:00:33 PM »

Not necessarily. Tip O'Neill and the Democrats of that era worked very well with Reagan and Bush even in spite of how far right Reagan was considered when he won in 1980. By comparison, today's GOP wouldn't work at all with Obama and were ultimately rewarded for their obstinance in the short and long run.

Actually that is a good point. I'd like to think of a time that happened in reverse, but the New Deal realignment was and all-in-one deal, all at the same time.

This is true at the senate and state level. The New Deal coalition was much more far reaching than the Reagan coalition was. In this sense I guess I could see the Reagan era ending sooner in 2020. That would be only 40 years compared to the FDR era which lasted 48 years. I'm torn on this though. On one hand millennials will make up just under 40% of the electorate in 2020 and polls show that progressive policies are popular with the American people as a whole. On the other hand, unions have been decimated and many of those workers are going to the GOP. Gun owners, evangelical christians, nativists, and baby boomers are not shrinking fast enough to lead me to believe that they'll be outnumbered anytime soon. So idk Tongue

This is why I had pestered TD if a realignment could occur earlier than the electorate was fully ready for. Given everything we are seeing, it's really not a stretch to imagine a Democrat taking back the White House with a sizable win (perhaps 2008-like) in 2020, and then proceeding to fully realize the implications of generational turnover in 2024. I agree that 2024 is probably going to be the most consequential display of Millennial/GenX political power, but in 2020 they will still be strong as well, keeping in mind that Democrats don't just have a slight advantage among these groups - in fact, they regularly pull in landslide margins. After Trump, I'd be willing to bet the 2020 Democrat, if the right choice, could be gifted with Obama '08-like margins among 18-29 year olds, and similar with 30-40 year olds, given that those voters are the 18-29s of the Obama era.

Though, I might be a little optimistic in light of recent events Roll Eyes
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