Breitbart/Gravis: Trump +4 in CO, +1 in OH (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 27, 2024, 01:03:31 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Breitbart/Gravis: Trump +4 in CO, +1 in OH (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Breitbart/Gravis: Trump +4 in CO, +1 in OH  (Read 3312 times)
StatesPoll
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 441
WWW
« on: September 26, 2016, 12:02:22 AM »
« edited: September 26, 2016, 01:13:37 AM by StatesPoll »

Liberal's Hero, Nate Silver's adjustment is same as poll results.
Colorado, Breitbart/Gravis 9/22-9/23: TRUMP +4%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/colorado/#plus  

Ohio, Breitbart/Gravis 9/22-9/23: TRUMP +1%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/#plus  



= Colorado Freiwal is collapsed.
Logged
StatesPoll
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 441
WWW
« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2016, 03:57:05 AM »

And the crosstabs are too GOP friendly. This poll is a outlier.

really? I don't think so.
This Poll oversampled Hispanic +4% & Undersampled Black 2% =almost doesn't make a chance

https://www.scribd.com/document/325276782/Colorado-Breitbart-Gravis-Poll-Sept-25#from_embed

Page 7,  Race: White 78% | Hispanic 18% | Asian 3% | Black 1%
2012 Exit Poll: White 78% | Hispanic 14% | Black 3% | Asian 3% | Other 3%

Logged
StatesPoll
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 441
WWW
« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2016, 05:10:44 AM »
« Edited: September 26, 2016, 05:40:02 AM by StatesPoll »

And the crosstabs are too GOP friendly. This poll is a outlier.

really? I don't think so.
This Poll oversampled Hispanic +4% & Undersampled Black 2% =almost doesn't make a chance

https://www.scribd.com/document/325276782/Colorado-Breitbart-Gravis-Poll-Sept-25#from_embed

Page 7,  Race: White 78% | Hispanic 18% | Asian 3% | Black 1%
2012 Exit Poll: White 78% | Hispanic 14% | Black 3% | Asian 3% | Other 3%


I know we are supposed to ignore you, but I just wanna point out that the demographics of 2012 and 2016 are quite different.

Hisapnics % in Colorado almost didn't increase during 2010->2015
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/08/accessible
2010: 20.7% -> 2015: 21.3%.
just 0.6%(considering low turnouts & low reg % of Hispanics. it could be even lower than 0.6%.)

ye ye, demographics of Colorado changed soooooooooooo much.
(Plus, turnouts of HS/Some College Whites in Colorado would be ↑↑↑↑ for sure.)

Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.022 seconds with 12 queries.