2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Yank2133]

Trump has a 42% approval rating in that poll.

If he is hanging around that number, then it doesn't matter what the generic ballot lead is.

[Yank2133]

Trump has a 42% approval rating in that poll.

If he is hanging around that number, then it doesn't matter what the generic ballot lead is.

This. The economy has never been a major factor in midterms... well, sometimes it has but the popularity of a president is more important.

Yeah, if the President starts cranking out 50%+ approval ratings then I will be concerned. But he is hanging around the high 30's to early-mid 40s then his party is going to be in trouble in November.

[Yank2133]

Trump has a 42% approval rating in that poll.

If he is hanging around that number, then it doesn't matter what the generic ballot lead is.

This. The economy has never been a major factor in midterms... well, sometimes it has but the popularity of a president is more important.

Yeah, if the President starts cranking out 50%+ approval ratings then I will be concerned. But he is hanging around the high 30's to early-mid 40s then his party is going to be in trouble in November.

To add to my point. Trump had a 43% approval rating in the exit polls here in VA during the election in November.

The GOP was completely wiped out.

[Yank2133]

Yeah, you two missed the point. Go look at the polls in January 2010 and then look at the final result in November 2010.

[Yank2133]

Yeah, you two missed the point. Go look at the polls in January 2010 and then look at the final result in November 2010.

From D+2 to R+9

The point is even when generic ballot polls showed the party in power doing fine. The environment and the President's approval rating were the bigger indicator.

[Yank2133]

Republicans and Trump's numbers really took a hit with this recent shooting, at least according to Q.

I kind of doubt that.

Historically, parties tend to see a bump early in the cycle, but things tend to regress as we enter the spring.

[Yank2133]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

Enthusiasm polling is more predictive than GCB. I've been predicting a 70+ seat loss and that enthusiasm poll only makes it seem more likely

70 seems like a stretch.

I think Democrats would peak around 40-50 seat pickups. 70 would suggest that R's would lose the Senate as well and I don't see that happening at all.

[Yank2133]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

Enthusiasm polling is more predictive than GCB. I've been predicting a 70+ seat loss and that enthusiasm poll only makes it seem more likely

70 seems like a stretch.

I think Democrats would peak around 40-50 seat pickups. 70 would suggest that R's would lose the Senate as well and I don't see that happening at all.

You don't? Heck, at this point I'd give it better than 50/50 odds. B currently comes down to whether or not Democrats sweep Indiana, Missouri, and Arizona, and I would give them better in 50/50 odds in each race currently. Do that in a Lloyd any mini upset and some place like West Virginia Montana or North Dakota, and that's that.

Hold a gun to my head for any one of those three races and I say the Democrat wins. Now, admittedly if you hold a gun to my head and ask me whether I'm ready to bet they sweep all three, I'm a bit more hesitant. But hearing the chamber click, I'd have to say yes. If for no other reason the way things are shaping up nationally makes me believe Donnelly Will Survive, the Arizona GOP is probably screwed especially if Kelli Ward is the nominee, and mccaskill is again  getting some assistance from the GOP committing own-goal errors

Yeah, I may be underestimating Democrats chances when it come to the senate. Historically, Senators from the opposing party in states won by the president in the previous election tend to do well. And Arizona looks like a prime pick up for Democrats, hell who knows maybe Texas even flips if the Cruz continues to poll underwater.

[Yank2133]

You guys got to stop letting Limo troll you.

[Yank2133]

"Sean T at RCP" is getting in on the sh**tfest as well...

Although do bear in mind RCP does have a slight R bias.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/996099288018059264

What a horse**** take.

It is mindboggling how pundits throw out conventional wisdom when it concerns Republicans. If Democrats were in the same position as Republicans, these same clowns would be telling us they are doom (and they would be correct.)

44% approval rating lol, how the **** is that good?

[Yank2133]

"Sean T at RCP" is getting in on the sh**tfest as well...

Although do bear in mind RCP does have a slight R bias.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/996099288018059264

What a horse**** take.

It is mindboggling how pundits throw out conventional wisdom when it concerns Republicans. If Democrats were in the same position as Republicans, these same clowns would be telling us they are doom (and they would be correct.)

44% approval lol, how the **** is that good?

Obama had 46% approval in 2010, and we know what happened.

I know and Clinton was in the mid-40s as well when the Dems got clobbered in 1994.  Trump had a 43% approval rating here in VA and looked what happened to R's in the general assembly.

It is bizarre how pundits keep lowering the bar for Trump and Republicans.
 

[Yank2133]

lol at all these polls after listening to conservatives concern troll democrats the last couple of weeks.

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is this just men in general or white men. Because if the GOP is only leading by one, then how are Democrats only up by 7?

[Yank2133]

I have said it before, but Comstock is getting Blanched.

[Yank2133]

Lol, Comstocked is gonna probably be a new verb here after the midterms.

Ask, I thought the experts told me VA-10 was a tossup, so this can’t be right!

Yup.

Does this mean we can retire the phrase "Blanched" or does that have a new separate meaning?

These are important questions to ask.