Latino Decisions: Week 11. Obama 73, Romney 21

[opebo]

I highly doubt the Mittens Hispanic performance will be this awful. 30% is more like it.

Why would you doubt that?  They really dislike the anti-Hispanic party, and he's an out of touch rich to boot.

[opebo]

If this were true uniformly outside of Florida, Obama would win Arizona.

Really?  Wouldn't he still need like 38-39% of whites?  The electorate of Arizona must be like 65% non-hispanic white, isn't it?

[opebo]

If this were true uniformly outside of Florida, Obama would win Arizona.

Arizona will be very close, mark my words.

I don't really think it will...but I wouldn't completely rule out something similar to Nevada 2008 (outperforming every opinion poll by a lot). Won't be enough, of course, even if.

Yeah I also don't think it will be all that close.. its supposed to be about 57.4% white... and that's just the census figure, I guess the electorate must be far, far whiter than that.  I guess it'll be like 53-46, maybe 52-47 at best.

[opebo]

Not a great pollster, then. 

In fairness, they're attempting probably the most difficult task - tracking Hispanics.  How do other pollsters fare with this?  Perhaps worse than Latino Decisions.