🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Just a reminder: All but one constituencies were won by the CDU five years ago. Only Leipzig 2 went to the Left.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I noticed something quite interesting:

Now for the time in history there are two Western states in which the Left is stronger than in another Eastern state. The strongest Western states for the Left are (my home state of) Saarland with 12.8 % in the 2017 elections and Bremen with 11.3 % in the 2019 elections, both state parties are now stronger than those in Saxony and Brandenburg. While Saarland is quite unique because of Oskar Lafontaine (who helped the Left gain 21 % in 2009), now the times for the Left as major Eastern party seem to be officially over.

It will be exciting to see if Thuringian Governor Bodo Ramelow is capable of defending his post in October's election.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Meißen 2: AfD direct + list vote
Bautzen 3: AfD direct vote, CDU list vote (strange)

[Tender Branson]

Bautzen III has also been won by the AfD candidate by 0.4%

[Tender Branson]

Middle Saxony II has also been won by the AfD candidate.

[Tender Branson]

Vogtland I (AfD by 0.2%)

[urutzizu]

To those interested in an interactive Map of the Results as they fill in:
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-sachsen-2019-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1281842.html

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Bautzen III has also been won by the AfD candidate by 0.4%

Do you think many AfD voters gave their second vote to the CDU in order to circumvent the 30-mandate cap?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Zwickau 2 and Zwickau 4 and Erzgebirge 4 also go to the CDU (first + second vote).

[Tender Branson]

To those interested in an interactive Map of the Results as they fill in:
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-sachsen-2019-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1281842.html

That map shows that the AfD is ahead in 15 districts for the direct vote, when they need 9.

It seems their strength today is making up for their stupidity when submitting their flawed list.

[palandio]

To those interested in an interactive Map of the Results as they fill in:
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-sachsen-2019-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1281842.html

That map shows that the AfD is ahead in 15 districts for the direct vote, when they need 9.

It seems their strength today is making up for their stupidity when submitting their flawed list.

Keep in mind that some of their constituency winners are also on the list (7 out of 15 I think). That makes 8 districts that actually matter.
election.de has a useful map that shows which constituencies have AfD candidates that are not on the list by red dots:
http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_sn19.pl?map=190824
(The colors are from the election.de forecast and hence outdated.)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Péter Vida is not unknown in his constituency Barnim II. He is a Member of the Landtag, leader of BVB/FW and Spitzenkandidat (lead candidate).

Since 2003 he is a member of the city council of Barnim Bernau.
BVB/FW achieved the highest percentage of votes in the municipal elections this year, at 21.5%.

Congrats! Never had I forecast that the impossible would recur.
Two different candidates, two different constituencies.

[Beezer]

I think right now there are 4 districts that have been won by the AfD with candidates not on the list...

Erzgebirge 2
Vogtland 1
Mittelsachsen 4
Bautzen 3

[urutzizu]

I think right now there are 4 districts that have been won by the AfD with candidates not on the list...

Erzgebirge 2
Vogtland 1
Mittelsachsen 4
Bautzen 3

Strange. I can count 7 right now:
Görlitz 1
Bautzen 4
Bautzen 3
Nordsachsen 3
Mittelsachsen 4
Erzgebirge 3
Vogtland 1
(assuming AFD dont win anything in Dresden/Leipzig)

Not that much of this matters anyway, it might make the difference whether its CDU/SPD or CDU/SPD rather than Kenia. Its not like 2002, where literally 1 Constituency decided the Federal Government...

[Beezer]

OK, I think I might have been looking at an outdated table over on the Tagesschau site... http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2019-09-01-LT-DE-SN/index.shtml

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Five different parties have won a direct seat. Never have I seen such a map. I don't even know when that has happened before in a state election. (In federal elections it's standard.)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The Saxon result map is interesting, too:



Left politician Juliane Nagel has been re-elected in her constituency Leipzig II.
Despite faring quite moderately, the Greens have at least won 3 direct seats.

[urutzizu]

Its one hell of a Urban-Rural divide for the Greens. They are winning Constituencies in Leipzig and Dresden but barely cracking 5% in most Rural ones. In Erzgebirge 2 they are on 2,9%.

[urutzizu]

Clear now. AFD will win 7 or 8 Constituencies where the Candidate is not on the list. The 7 I mentioned plus possibly Dresden 6. ARD is saying 116 total seats, ZDF says 120. They will be in the dry under ARDs projection but will miss out on 2/3 underhang seats with ZDF. Yes that word exists

Edit: They are out in Dresden 6, so 7 it is.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Clear now. AFD will win 7 or 8 Constituencies where the Candidate is not on the list. The 7 I mentioned plus possibly Dresden 6. ARD is saying 116 total seats, ZDF says 120. They will be in the dry under ARDs projection but will miss out on 2/3 underhang seats. Yes that word exists

I learnt a new technical term today: generische Direktmandate.
A pizza coalition is now obsolete in Saxony.

[Keep Calm and ...]

I think AfD will win 8 Constituencies where the Candidate is not on the list.
Number 8 is Görlitz I.

[urutzizu]

I think AfD will win 8 Constituencies where the Candidate is not on the list.
Number 8 is Görlitz I.

Oh. I might have missed one. Can you list all eight please? The only seven i could find were the ones mentioned earlier:
Görlitz 1
Bautzen 4
Bautzen 3
Nordsachsen 3
Mittelsachsen 4
Erzgebirge 3
Vogtland 1

[Keep Calm and ...]

You missed Meißen 3.

[urutzizu]

You missed Meißen 3.

Yep. Good spotting. Eight it is. With the Updated Seat count (ARD:37;Total:118)(ZDF:39;Total:120) they would have either one or zero underhang seats respectively. It will get interesting if AFD members die/resign. They would have nobody (or in case of ARDs projection only one person) to replace them.

[TheSaint250]

Are Freie Wähler parties considered to be just additional groups of conservatives in all states, or does it vary by state? I remember reading that the Bavarian branch was, and someone in the thread noted that the Brandenburg one is, too.

Also, what's the reason behind their rise across the board?