Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

First wave results for Mexico State  (non-null results)

MORENA              36.99%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  36.08%
PRD                     17.73%
PAN                       7.21%
PRI rebel                1.43%
PT                         0.56% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

If this is indicative of the results then there was a PAN collapse just like the polls picked up and significant tactical voting for the two front runners.  

[jaichind]

PRI claims that early results show a PRI win in Edomex (Mexico State)

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)

MORENA              37.75%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  35.44%
PRD                     17.08%
PAN                       7.47%
PRI rebel                1.64%
PT                         0.63% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

[jaichind]

Looks like PAN completely tanked in Edomex.  And to think that the PAN candidate Vázquez Mota was its 2012 Presidential candidate.   It seems her political career is over. 

[jaichind]

Veracruz has municipal elections tonight as well.  It will be PRI-PVEM (in most cities but in some cities PRI and PVEM run separately) vs PAN-PRD vs MORENA.  It seems the PAN-PRD alliance that won here last year is holding up as they are running in alliance in all cities.   

[jaichind]

MORENA claims victory in Edomex with a predicted victory size of 5%-7%

[jaichind]

The early results from Veracruz municipal elections looks ominous for PRI.  Last year it was a near 3 way tie between PRI-PVEM, PAN-PRD and MORENA.  So far PAN-PRD is will ahead followed by MORENA with PRI-PVEM bring up the rear in terms of vote share.

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)

MORENA              36.11%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  32.82%
PRD                     20.69%
PAN                       7.76%
PRI rebel                1.95%
PT                         0.67% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

Looks more and more ominous for PRI. 

[jaichind]

Financiero projects neck-to-neck for Coahuila (between PRI and PAN) which is not a surprise given the polls leading up to the election.  At least PRI seems to have avoided a clear defeat although a PRI defeat is more likely than not in my view.

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)

MORENA              35.15%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  34.43%
PRD                     20.09%
PAN                       7.76%
PRI rebel                2.02%
PT                         0.55% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PRI closes the gap

[jaichind]

MXN down 0.4% from Friday so far.  I suspect if PRI does badly MXN will fall a lot more.

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)

MORENA              34.61%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  34.51%
PRD                     20.71%
PAN                       7.64%
PRI rebel                1.98%
PT                         0.55% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

near tie between PRI and MORENA

[jaichind]

Veracruz results so far (79 out of 212 cities reporting) - vote share non-null

                 Vote share       Leading
PAN-PRD       31.58%          35
PRI-PVEM      17.02%          14
PRI                 1.84%            2
PVEM              1.56%           2
MORENA       25.65%           8
PANAL            6.28%           6
MC                 5.50%           6
PT                  3.23%           2
PES                2.39%           2
Ind                4.86%            2

[jaichind]

I reckon PRI will end up winning Edomex - gut feel.

We'll see!

Jaichind thanks for all your updates, really appreciated, love following Mexican politics.

Yeah, the trend seems to be running in favor of PRI.  Of course the best outcome for MORENA is to lose Edomex in a close election, yell fraud, take no accountability in running a state and continue to lock up the anti-establishment vote, and then in 2018 PRI and PAN split the establishment vote for AMLO to win.

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)

MORENA              33.88%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  32.89%
PRD                     23.21%
PAN                       7.56%
PRI rebel                1.86%
PT                         0.59% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PRD surging.

[jaichind]

Veracruz results so far (91 out of 212 cities reporting) - vote share non-null

                 Vote share       Leading
PAN-PRD       32.78%          47
PRI-PVEM      16.77%          15
PRI                 2.00%            4
PVEM              1.57%           1
MORENA       25.03%         10
PANAL            6.10%           4
MC                 5.58%           5
PT                  3.15%           2
PES                2.19%           2
Ind                4.82%            1

PAN-PRD now the number one force in Veracruz

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)

MORENA              32.95%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  31.74%
PRD                     24.01%
PAN                       8.67%
PRI rebel                1.89%
PT                         0.74% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PRD surging.  Gap between MORENA and PRI still small.

[jaichind]

Early Coahuila results (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     40.87%
PAN                         36.69%
MORENA                  11.78%
PRI rebel                   6.02%
PRD                          1.60%
PT                            1.48%  (dropped out to support MORENA)

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)

MORENA              32.43%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  31.63%
PRD                     23.39%
PAN                       9.91%
PRI rebel                1.91%
PT                         0.77% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PAN going up a bit.  PAN might make it to double digits

[jaichind]

Veracruz results so far (125 out of 212 cities reporting) - vote share non-null

                 Vote share       Leading
PAN-PRD       32.72%          60
PRI-PVEM      16.95%          23
PRI                 1.95%            3
PVEM              1.71%           3
MORENA       23.02%         12
PANAL            6.38%         10
MC                 6.27%           6
PT                  3.87%           4
PES                2.41%           2
Ind                4.73%            2

[jaichind]

Early Coahuila results (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     39.81%
PAN                         37.30%
MORENA                  13.06%
PRI rebel                   5.348%
PRD                          1.54%
PT                            1.40%  (dropped out to support MORENA)

MORENA ganging ground.

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)

MORENA              32.71%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  31.51%
PRD                     21.85%
PAN                     10.91%
PRI rebel                2.11%
PT                         0.91% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PAN going up a some more.

[jaichind]

Veracruz results so far (149 out of 212 cities reporting) - vote share non-null

                 Vote share       Leading
PAN-PRD       32.38%          71
PRI-PVEM      17.33%          32
PRI                 1.90%            4
PVEM              1.69%           3
MORENA       22.35%         14
PANAL            6.42%           8
MC                 6.81%           8
PT                  4.00%           5
PES                2.53%           1
Ind                4.59%            3

[jaichind]

Early Coahuila results (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     39.13%
PAN                         37.40%
MORENA                  13.26%
PRI rebel                   6.11%
PRD                          1.51%
PT                            1.31%  (dropped out to support MORENA)

This one will be close it seems

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)

MORENA              33.23%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  31.36%
PRD                     21.04%
PAN                     11.21%
PRI rebel                2.14%
PT                         0.92% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PAN going up a some more as MORENA-PRI gap opens.  One thing is for sure.  If PRD-PAN formed an alliance than this would have been a very close 3 way battle.