CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Yikes. Rouda is clearly the better candidate here.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Link?

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Yikes. Rouda is clearly the better candidate here.

No he's not.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Link?

https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm#c-1653

They update every weekday at 5PM Pacific

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Looks like they've only added about 3k votes... if there's actually 55k (now 52k) votes left to count, this is going to take forever.

[Bidenworth2020]

Looks like they've only added about 3k votes... if there's actually 55k (now 52k) votes left to count, this is going to take forever.

When have CA- election results not?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I might be derailing the thread a bit but I would be remiss if I didn't bring up the fact that Antonio Sbato Jr. is going to be the Republican nominee in CA-26. More evidence that the Republican Party is the real starer party. I look forward to his defeat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Yikes. Rouda is clearly the better candidate here.

True, but Rohrabacher should be favored over either one.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Yikes. Rouda is clearly the better candidate here.

True, but Rohrabacher should be favored over either one.

He's damaged goods in a district Clinton won.   I'd put him as one of the top 3 or top 5 most vulnerable incumbents in the country.  He didn't even get a third of the vote in his primary.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Yikes. Rouda is clearly the better candidate here.

True, but Rohrabacher should be favored over either one.

He's damaged goods in a district Clinton won.   I'd put him as one of the top 3 or top 5 most vulnerable incumbents in the country.  He didn't even get a third of the vote in his primary.

He did very well in 2016, and while I think it will be closer this time, I still think he wins 52-48.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Yikes. Rouda is clearly the better candidate here.

True, but Rohrabacher should be favored over either one.

He's damaged goods in a district Clinton won.   I'd put him as one of the top 3 or top 5 most vulnerable incumbents in the country.  He didn't even get a third of the vote in his primary.

He did very well in 2016, and while I think it will be closer this time, I still think he wins 52-48.

He's toast against Rouda.

[LimoLiberal]

Really, really want Corey Stewart to win the primary in 5 days. But I think Freitas is the slight favorite now, he's surging and Stewart is getting a lot of negative stories dropped on him. Bad for Kaine, who will still likely win against Freitas but would easily blowout Stewart.

[john cage bubblegum]

Preliminary data is up (credit to Mencken for posting this in the CA House Megathread).

I did some fuzzy math with some precinct results that have been reported then cross examined with both the number of registered voters in these precincts vs the expected primary turnout of Orange County as a whole (37-38% was the current estimate?) and uhhhhh...

...

There's probably a good number of votes left to count. This is probably gonna take awhile so don't hold your breath folks.

We now have this handy page from the CA SOS website, giving us the statewide unprocessed vote, county by county.  I presume it will be updated daily. 

As of this afternoon, there are 2.6 million votes left to be counted, although that figure includes 390k provisionals, some of which won't be valid.  About 4.25 million votes have been counted thus far, so that means something like 36-37% of the total vote has yet to be counted.

[Gass3268]

This is incredible, there were only 500K less votes cast in this primary than there was in the 2014 general election:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004908997718237185

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This is incredible, there were only 500K less votes cast in this primary than there was in the 2014 general election:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004908997718237185

Can't wait to see how Fox continues to try and spin this.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This is incredible, there were only 500K less votes cast in this primary than there was in the 2014 general election:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004908997718237185

Can't wait to see how Fox continues to try and spin this.

What is there to spin? Republicans didn't do that bad in these primaries, as they only lost 1 congressional district so far if you go by the combined D vs combined R vote. Of course, there's still late-mail ins waiting to be counted, and the general is more favorable to dems than the primary, but it's not like these primaries are a disaster for republicans. It's more neutral than anything.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This is incredible, there were only 500K less votes cast in this primary than there was in the 2014 general election:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004908997718237185

Can't wait to see how Fox continues to try and spin this.

What is there to spin? Republicans didn't do that bad in these primaries, as they only lost 1 congressional district so far if you go by the combined D vs combined R vote. Of course, there's still late-mail ins waiting to be counted, and the general is more favorable to dems than the primary, but it's not like these primaries are a disaster for republicans. It's more neutral than anything.

They've been trying to act like the results mean the death of the Blue Wave, is what I meant.

[Kodak]

This is incredible, there were only 500K less votes cast in this primary than there was in the 2014 general election:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004908997718237185

Can't wait to see how Fox continues to try and spin this.

What is there to spin? Republicans didn't do that bad in these primaries, as they only lost 1 congressional district so far if you go by the combined D vs combined R vote. Of course, there's still late-mail ins waiting to be counted, and the general is more favorable to dems than the primary, but it's not like these primaries are a disaster for republicans. It's more neutral than anything.

Of course, getting shut out of the Senate race will probably still have bad effects downballot for the GOP. But considering how far they've fallen, at this point the expectations are pretty low for a neutral or good year.

[136or142]

I might be derailing the thread a bit but I would be remiss if I didn't bring up the fact that Antonio Sbato Jr. is going to be the Republican nominee in CA-26. More evidence that the Republican Party is the real starer party. I look forward to his defeat.

Republican soap opera actress (and businesswoman) Kimberlin Brown Pelzer also won her primary.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Yikes. Rouda is clearly the better candidate here.

True, but Rohrabacher should be favored over either one.

He's damaged goods in a district Clinton won.   I'd put him as one of the top 3 or top 5 most vulnerable incumbents in the country.  He didn't even get a third of the vote in his primary.

He did very well in 2016, and while I think it will be closer this time, I still think he wins 52-48.

He's toast against Rouda.

This overconfidence is f###### ridiculous. Rouda's own d@mn internal has him down four points. Now he could very well still win (this has and will continue to be a close race) but claiming that either Rohrabacher or the dem at this point is toast is huetarded and hawkish. But if I don't agree with you and instead call this a tight race with a slim GOP advantage, I am automatically a concern troll.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Really, really want Corey Stewart to win the primary in 5 days. But I think Freitas is the slight favorite now, he's surging and Stewart is getting a lot of negative stories dropped on him. Bad for Kaine, who will still likely win against Freitas but would easily blowout Stewart.

Yeah, this sounds about right, although I think Stewart narrowly edges out the primary. But I would not be surprised either way, Jackson aint a factor.

[mencken]

This is incredible, there were only 500K less votes cast in this primary than there was in the 2014 general election:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004908997718237185

To be fair, 2014 turnout was pretty pathetic, with the fewest total votes in a California gubernatorial race since 1978 (and I'm pretty sure California's population has grown considerably in the interim).

[Gass3268]

Cool LA County precinct map

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Yikes. Rouda is clearly the better candidate here.

True, but Rohrabacher should be favored over either one.

He's damaged goods in a district Clinton won.   I'd put him as one of the top 3 or top 5 most vulnerable incumbents in the country.  He didn't even get a third of the vote in his primary.

He did very well in 2016, and while I think it will be closer this time, I still think he wins 52-48.

He's toast against Rouda.

This overconfidence is f###### ridiculous. Rouda's own d@mn internal has him down four points. Now he could very well still win (this has and will continue to be a close race) but claiming that either Rohrabacher or the dem at this point is toast is huetarded and hawkish. But if I don't agree with you and instead call this a tight race with a slim GOP advantage, I am automatically a concern troll.

The dem hacks on this forum have literally gone off the deep end. Every single poll is proof the GOP is doomed, even if it shows the Republican leading.

They were always off the deep end lol

Of course, so are you XD Though I think we both know you don’t really believe the nonsense you put out and just do it for a laugh.

[Landslide Lyndon]

When is the next update on California?