CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When all the vote counting is over, Democrats might end up with more votes cast in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1004353533431468033

RINO Tom won't be happy to see this.

lol what is this forum's obsession with RINO Tom?

[Politician]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/no-democrats-haven-t-shown-they-re-going-win-house-n880516

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You do realize there are a lot of mostly Democratic votes left to count, right? And Dem turnout was up from 2016?

[AndyHogan14]

Seeing all of these "hot takes" online, I cannot help but roll my eyes. I have been following California politics since I was 12-13 years old and while a lot has changed since then, two things have remained fairly constant: 1) it takes forever to count all of the votes (roughly 1/3 of the ballots still have not been counted in OC—my home county) and 2) one should never try to extrapolate the general election results from the primary results. With the jungle primary format, it is much easier to try and do so, but I would warn everyone against that because as people have said before me, primary voters ≠ general election voters.

[Canis]

So a Donelly-Cook Runoff looks pretty certain now how do you think this race will go?

[IceSpear]

Seeing all of these "hot takes" online, I cannot help but roll my eyes. I have been following California politics since I was 12-13 years old and while a lot has changed since then, two things have remained fairly constant: 1) it takes forever to count all of the votes (roughly 1/3 of the ballots still have not been counted in OC—my home county) and 2) one should never try to extrapolate the general election results from the primary results. With the jungle primary format, it is much easier to try and do so, but I would warn everyone against that because as people have said before me, primary voters ≠ general election voters.

The problem being that many of our members actually are 12-13 years old, psychologically if not biologically (and in some cases both.)

[IceSpear]

So a Donelly-Cook Runoff looks pretty certain now how do you think this race will go?

It is far from certain. The gap is small and lots of votes remain to be counted.

But Cook would win in a landslide obviously.

[Babeuf]

A lot of people have forgotten about them, but the fundraising escrow accounts pro-Dem groups set up for the eventual nominees are going to replenish the coffers of the Dem candidates, especially in the competitive California districts where tons of SwingLeft money is going to.

Just from SwingLeft alone (https://swingleft.org/fundraise):
CA49 - 353k
CA10 - 334k
CA25 - 252k
CA39 - 207k (what a waste to give this to the lottery winner lol, but that's how it ended up going)
CA21 - 193k
CA48 - 192k
CA45 - 188k

[Tintrlvr]

Are we expecting to have a substantial additional amount of votes counted in California today? Or do we have to wait a few days for additional results?

[Gass3268]

Are we expecting to have a substantial additional amount of votes counted in California today? Or do we have to wait a few days for additional results?

There is an OC update by 5PM PT (8PM ET), not sure about others.

[Gass3268]

Are we expecting to have a substantial additional amount of votes counted in California today? Or do we have to wait a few days for additional results?

There is an OC update by 5PM PT (8PM ET), not sure about others.

New update coming in 2 minutes (OC at least).

[Gass3268]

Keirstead jumped back into 2nd place

[bilaps]

I think Rohrabacher gets reelected in November.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is going to take weeks to sort out

[Tintrlvr]

Keirstead jumped back into 2nd place

Where are the updated results available?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah, that's close:

DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   33,198   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   18,827   17.2%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   18,782   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   17,601   16.1%

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm kind of glad I didn't participate in this thread last night. It was bad enough watching the results roll in on CNN. So much pessimism and negativity towards the Democrats. If one ever wonders why we are so self-conscious just take a listen to the people saying that Democratic enthusiasm is actually a bad thing for the party or how Trump's NFL shenanigans is the silver bullet issue for Republicans. It was quite frustrating and clearly there was some of that in this thread too.

What I saw was the Democratic Party avoiding a disaster that was never really going to happen. It doesn't look like they are going to be locked out of any races, and the candidates that won are pretty decent. I am less worried than I was 24 hours ago, which I never really should have been. It's amazing what a little patience can do.

In my home state I am surprised to see that John McCann, the GOP nominee for NJ-05 (my district), and his "Steve Lonegan is a loser, I'm Trumpier than he is!" campaign succeeded. Seriously, he sent out mailers with a typically inarticulate quote from Trump about what a loser Steve Lonegan is. For all I know, it worked. I thought for sure I would have to worry about Lonegan's nutty ass potentially representing me in Congress. Instead we got some random guy who seems almost exactly as bad. I'm not too worried about Gottheimer losing though. Hopefully we'll never see Lonegan run for office in New Jersey ever again! Though losing never stopped him before.
As for Menendez, in spite of winning the primary by a closer margin than he should have, I don't think we're going to see a repeat of 2002 with Torricelli. The environment does not seem like it will resemble 2002. Menendez just sucks though. I doubt he will lose but I would rather that he makes an effort to remind Democrats and Trump opponents what's at stake, as control of the Senate hangs in the balance. If he does that, Hugin's inevitable ads attacking him for being corrupt shouldn't be too much of a threat in this state. We've elected corrupt people many times before. I just don't want Menendez to get lazy with this, he really needs to get back in the good graces with New Jersey's voters. They aren't all like me. He has my vote because I'm a partisan hack and I do not want to risk the Democrats taking control of the Senate, even though it's not particularly likely either way. I would still consider this race safe Democratic. His alleged vulnerability may very well be yet another media narrative.

Finally, I want to talk about Montana's senate primary on the Republican side. I was very amused to see how competitive Fagg was against Rosendale for most of the night, I honestly wonder how many of the votes for him were in jest: "Hardy har, his name is Fagg, he won't win but I'm voting for him!" I guess that makes up for the whole wedding cake thing, Republicans. It was also amusingly awkward to hear Anderson Cooper and Steve Kornacki, two gay men, say his name as they discussed the election returns. Rosendale won though of course. But if that primary indicates anything, it's that he might not be a great challenger. Tester is probably one of the more favored Romney-Trump state Senate Democrats.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Hopefully it is not an exact tie. Under California law, a tie for 2nd place means that both make it to the runoff, which would mean that there would be vote splitting in the general.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Someone who is evidently confused on how the California primaries work:

https://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA/status/1004518471177261056

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hopefully it is not an exact tie. Under California law, a tie for 2nd place means that both make it to the runoff, which would mean that there would be vote splitting in the general.

I was wondering what happened if there was a tie for 2nd, thanks.

Of course it's an incredibly unlikely scenario, but could they agree to flip a coin or something and the loser withdraw?

[Oryxslayer]

Hopefully it is not an exact tie. Under California law, a tie for 2nd place means that both make it to the runoff, which would mean that there would be vote splitting in the general.

I was wondering what happened if there was a tie for 2nd, thanks.

Of course it's an incredibly unlikely scenario, but could they agree to flip a coin or something and the loser withdraw?

In the extremely unlikely event this happens, the state dems would probably hand one a golden parachute to drop out - of course the chances of this happening are extremely low. Recounts and ballot challenges will see to that. The main downside of this whole process though is that Rouda and Keirstead will still be at each others throats for the entirely of the next month over ballot access, and maybe even longer then that. hard to unite the regional coalition quickly in that scenario.

[136or142]

So, what are the seats with no Democratic challengers currently? I know NC-3 doesn't have one.

Also the Georgia 9th District held by Republican Austin Scott.  There was a Democrat in the race at one point but that person dropped out to run for State Agriculture Commissioner instead.

[136or142]

What is Young Kim like? Is she moderate?

She's a social conservative extremist.  Ardently anti-LGBTQ.  She was defeated when she ran for reelection to the State Assembly in 2016 after first being elected in 2014.  I was surprised that Republicans rallied around her as their consensus choice here instead of Bob Huff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So, what are the seats with no Democratic challengers currently? I know NC-3 doesn't have one.

Also the Georgia 9th District held by Republican Austin Scott.  There was a Democrat in the race at one point but that person dropped out to run for State Agriculture Commissioner instead.

Austin Scott is in the 8th.  The 9th (my district!) is represented by Doug Collins.  We actually had a Democratic primary this year, not that it will make much difference in November.

[136or142]

So, what are the seats with no Democratic challengers currently? I know NC-3 doesn't have one.

Also the Georgia 9th District held by Republican Austin Scott.  There was a Democrat in the race at one point but that person dropped out to run for State Agriculture Commissioner instead.

Austin Scott is in the 8th.  The 9th (my district!) is represented by Doug Collins.  We actually had a Democratic primary this year, not that it will make much difference in November.

Sorry! Everything else is correct though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Someone who is evidently confused on how the California primaries work:

https://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA/status/1004518471177261056

We obviously elect 2 governors in June.

And I thought the newspaper that thought they could call a race with a tiny fraction of percentage of a vote difference because "100% of precincts were reporting" were dumb.