Australia General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

No idea. Another person damaged by the mess is Peris, since Crossin alleges that Gillard did this for less-than-pure reasons. ALP takes a hit all-around.

[RogueBeaver]

I'll believe that a challenge happens when I see it. If no challenge in March then they'll wait till post-election, depending on whether Rudd and/or Swan lose their seats.

[RogueBeaver]

"We aren't sure who we want as leader: depends who has better poll numbers on a given day."

[RogueBeaver]

You really think Rudd's numbers would hold once the shine wears off and everyone remembers why he was ousted to begin with? Plus the optics of restoring an overthrown leader, one who's already been publicly nuked (*coughSwancough*) by some of his party's most influential people? I certainly don't think so. Ads go up, numbers go down, yet again people start pining for a switch. Gillard has to take the bullet, like Howard in 2007.

[RogueBeaver]

They can't repeal it de jure without Senate control, which would take a couple of cycles if ever. What he could do is gradually reduce the rate with corresponding cuts to compensate- de facto repeal. Doubt that happens though.

[RogueBeaver]

If they want to look on the bright side, what they've done will probably remain untouched and they won't be forced immediately onto the policy defensive like when Howard came at them like a freight train with WRA, waterfront reform and the early Budgets. But yeah, otherwise pretty terrible.

[RogueBeaver]

Where? Last Newspoll had 55-45. If true... that's not 1996, more like 1975/7. Still no way to flip the Senate this cycle.

[RogueBeaver]

Howard for Yarralumla? I'd think age and the precedent of appointing an ex-PM would kill this idea.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/push-among-libs-to-pick-howard-for-yarralumla/story-e6frgd0x-1226589465804

[RogueBeaver]

If the current polls hold it would be late '70s all over again, question is whether they do. I think Labor claws back a bit and we're back to '96 or '04 assuming the trajectory doesn't change.

[RogueBeaver]

Labor shouldn't get too down. Remember the 1996, 2004 and 2007 elections and the triumphalist punditry that emerged after each. Stuff like this.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/09/1097261866624.html

[RogueBeaver]

Same here. We'll see fluctuations like that till polling day.

[RogueBeaver]

When's the budget due again? Last I heard nothing major was expected from it.

[RogueBeaver]

Antony Green says there is a path to partial Senate control. Enough for repeal, not much else.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/03/could-western-australia-deliver-the-coalition-control-of-the-senate.html

[RogueBeaver]

Also, congrats to the Laborites here for 1993 @ 20. Without that there wouldn't have been a PM Howard.

[RogueBeaver]

I wouldn't be surprised.

[RogueBeaver]

Green's new calculator is out.  56-44 is 99-46 on a uniform swing.

Gillard isn't going, and switching is one way for 2 leaders to share a bullet. As if Howard had suddenly punted the football into Costello's lap in spring '07...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2013/calculator/

[RogueBeaver]

Long Rinehart profile from the New Yorker.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2013/03/25/130325fa_fact_finnegan?currentPage=all

[RogueBeaver]

I`ll believe it when I see it.

[RogueBeaver]

When does caucus normally meet? It could just be a yellow light... but isn't this how 2010 went down? Is there a TV feed we non-Aussies could watch?

On a related note, who are the best #auspol reporters to follow on Twitter? Ones who actually Tweet that is.

[RogueBeaver]

Is the Carr leak a coincidence? The news that "this has to be settled by Thursday?" These things take a few days minimum if done half-competently.

[RogueBeaver]

Nothing on Twitter yet.

[RogueBeaver]

Heh, who knows. I think it would be monumentally stupid, but if they're in full-blown panic mode...

[RogueBeaver]

Oakes reported that Ruddites are pinging, but they won't try moving till Friday earliest.

http://www.coastalleader.com.au/story/1376500/gillards-silver-lining-rudd-a-no-go-for-regional-australia/?cs=2452

[RogueBeaver]

But, but, DO SOMETHING.

[RogueBeaver]

Internals might be hidden again.

http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/sa-poll-showed-rudd-was-rebounding-before-2010-coup/story-e6frfkp9-1226601984968