Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

[

The problem with your logic is that if the Liberals manage to hold on to a seat like Don Valley North (which they won with a 20 point difference), they should  much more easily hold on to Toronto Centre, which they won with 40 points.  There is no logical reason for voters to abandon the Liberals for the NDP in the inner-core ridings and NOT abandon them for the PCs in places like Don Valley North, Willowdale or even Don Valley West. As @mileslunn said, a wave is a wave.
[/quote]

We have to look at local riding characteristics as well as larger swings and polling.
For Don Valley North, there is an inarguable Star Liberal candidate and the PC candidate is weaker and lesser known, that give the OLP a local boost in that the candidates name can help hold some OLP vote on personal popularity. DVN does not have a very strong NDP base, under 20% I believe, so the logical anti-ford vote should migrate to the OLP. I wont argue that the PC polling increase will see their vote increase here but I think the advantage is going to go to the local OLP and Candidate herself. I think the Anti-ford vote will be a stronger motivator then the anti-wynne vote in Toronto specifically. Their vote has been halved and that'why they are pegged for only 5 or so seats.

In Toronto Centre; you do not have an incumbent OLP running either but no "Star" OLP candidate, in fact the NDP nominated I believe about a month earlier or so then the OLP. The NDP has a much strong voter base here and this, the entire core of the DT, is a swing progressive area with a very low conservative voter base. Remember the NDP pulled in over 40% in a By-election and General election (Just under 40) under the old boundaries which included the heavy Liberal Rosedale. The Increase in PC vote is not coming from places like this, and if it is, that PC vote is coming from the OLP, not the NDP.  


[/quote]

Fair enough, although we can argue whether Shelley Caroll in DVN is the RIGHT "star candidate".  However, the math is still inescapable.  Also, contrary to media mantras, not all Liberal voters have NDP as their second choice (just look at Hazel McCallion).

In 2014 Liberals had 52% in DVN, PC had 33% and NDP had 11% (give or take a few decimals.  For the PC to take this over, they only need to hold their vote, and get an 8-12 % swing from the Liberals.  Can they do it?  I don't know, but if they can't and the Liberals hold on to at least 45%, then I am arguing that they sure as heck can hold a 40% advantage in places like Toronto Centre, even with a 10-15% swing to the NDP.  

In other ways, you can't have your cake and eat it too,  Either the OLP vote collapses completely, and both NDP and PC gain seats across TO, or the Liberals hold the inner core and some outer ridings in TO and finish with more seats in TO than the pundits are currently projecting.  You can't have OLP collapsing in Toronto Centre and holding in DVN.  My prediction (subject to Kathleen Wynne's performance in the debate) is still that the Liberals will hold on to at least 7-9 seats in TO, and many of them will be the seats NDP are targeting - we'll see.

[PeteB]

Question for the Ontarians: why does the NDP seem to do better in rural southwestern Ontario than rural eastern Ontario?

In SW Ontario, there's a lot of manufacturing even in ridings thought of as "rural."

Pretty much this. Using my riding of Oxford for example, there's the Toyota plant in Woodstock and the Cami plant in Ingersoll. Both are very significant employers in those cities. There's quite a bit of other manufacturing as well, but those are the two most notable examples.

So, like the US Rust Belt?

Agreed on all the points.  Rural SW is really more akin to Michigan and Eastern ON is more like rural Virginia.  There is a public acceptance of NDP as a viable alternative in the SW which is simply not there in small towns of Eastern ON.  That is why NDP have a real shot at PC ridings in K-W, Sarnia, Brantford, Chatham etc. and very little chance anywhere in E. ON, outside a few Ottawa ridings, Kingston and maybe Peterborough.  I still stand by my prediction that any talk about NDP taking over completely rural ridings even in SW ON (like Elgin Middlesex London) is pure scifi.

[PeteB]

Just putting this out there:

Fed 2011 Toronto Centre Transposed result...

Lib: 39%
NDP: 36%
Cons: 18%

And for good measure - Fed 2011 Don Valley North Transposed result:

...If this riding existed in 2011, the Conservatives would have won with 40.3 per cent of the vote, followed by the Liberals with 37.3 per cent....

[PeteB]

In other ways, you can't have your cake and eat it too,  Either the OLP vote collapses completely, and both NDP and PC gain seats across TO, or the Liberals hold the inner core and some outer ridings in TO and finish with more seats in TO than the pundits are currently projecting.  You can't have OLP collapsing in Toronto Centre and holding in DVN.  My prediction (subject to Kathleen Wynne's performance in the debate) is still that the Liberals will hold on to at least 7-9 seats in TO, and many of them will be the seats NDP are targeting - we'll see.

Yes, you can. Universal swing isn't a thing outside of theory. It assumes every place has similar voters swinging in the same way. See Lib Dems in 2015, where they mostly collapsed except in a few places with popular incumbents.

Also, DVN can have anti-Ford tactical voting for Liberals, which won't be a thing in Toronto Centre (where PC is totally out of running).

1. If there is a universal swing - i.e. Liberal to NDP, let's say by 20%, then the results in Don Valley North would be Lib - 32%, PC-33%, NDP-31% and the PC tightly win DVN.  BTW, it would take more than a 20% swing to allow NDP to win Toronto Centre!

2. Anti-Ford strategic voting - I will give you that, but keep in mind that assuming every Liberal voter will be motivated primarily by this is incorrect.  In some ridings, such as this one, fiscal concerns, religious issues or local matters will trump anti-Ford sentiment.

[PeteB]

Innovative Research
PC 36%(+1)
NDP 31% (-)
Liberal 26% (-1)

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-pre-test-Wave-2-.pdf

Interesting, I guess we don't have a consensus on polls. I suspect maybe early next week we will but don't now.

I think that the consensus is that the Liberals are crumbling and the NDP is picking up that support, but ALSO that the PC vote is holding steady.  There is also a higher than usual number of undecided voters (15-20%), who could swing many ways.

A lot will depend on the debate and the final days of the campaign.

[PeteB]

Uh oh

http://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/05/25/pc-candidates-accuse-ndp-ignoring-anti-semitism-within-party/

NDP are lucky that the media has not picked up any of these allegations yet.  Of course kooks are present in any party (exhibit A: Andrew Lawton, PC candidate for London West), but the problem for the NDP is that:

1. They have a fair amount of candidates who apparently do not understand what teamwork is, and do not consider themselves obligated to follow the party platform or hold some of their more controversial thoughts private, and who certainly do not clear their actions with the campaign and

2. They are essentially "protest" candidates and are just not ready for prime time and cannot understand that what they say in their little circle will reverberate across the province.  Now that the NDP seems to have a shot at government, this behavior will hurt them.  Laura Kaminker's pacifism may be well received in some downtown urban centres, but will probably not help the NDP in rural ridings and smaller towns. Harden's opinions on getting rid of the Catholic school boards may have merit, but will probably ensure that the NDP win very few seats in Eastern Ontario.  Tasleem Riaz's facebook Nazi meme share may be unintentional, but it will kill off any chances of NDP being competitive in many Jewish communities.

Andrea Horwath, I feel your pain !

[PeteB]

Laura Kaminker's pacifism may be well received in some downtown urban centres, but will probably not help the NDP in rural ridings and smaller towns. Harden's opinions on getting rid of the Catholic school boards may have merit, but will probably ensure that the NDP win very few seats in Eastern Ontario.  Tasleem Riaz's facebook Nazi meme share may be unintentional, but it will kill off any chances of NDP being competitive in many Jewish communities.

Andrea Horwath, I feel your pain !

The Laura Kaminker story was a big stoyr a week ago and through the long weekend...and NDP support just kept going up. No evidence of any impact

Harden's past views on Catholic schools are also irrelevant. He has said he will follow party policy and no one seriously thinks the NDP is suddenly going to eliminate the Catholic school system...in any case in a downtown, secular "urban intelligentsia" riding like Ottawa Centre, I'll bet most people would agree with Harden about merging the school systems into one.

The Jewish vote is only really relevant in three or four ridings (Thornhill, York Centre, Eglinton-Lawrence and St. Paul's) and the NDP could win 100 out of 124 seats and not even come close in any of those four...

Like I said, the NDP are lucky (so far) that the MSM has not really picked up any of these stories (not really considering the Toronto Sun as MSM). If they do, we'll see whether there is any impact on voter intentions.

[PeteB]

Ontario: the last place in the world debates change anything.

I think that this time it will make a difference.  Look for the debate to determine these three things:

1. Can Andrea Horwath convince the public that her personal likeability can translate into an effective head of government?  This will literally determine if NDP peaks at 45-50 seats or if it can go above 63 seats and take over.

2. Can Doug Ford convince any fiscal Liberals that he is the better option?  With the current PC vote efficient and holding steady, he can count on about 45-50 seats.  With the large number of fiscally conservative TCTC seats in Toronto, Ottawa and the 905, this could seal the deal for a Premier Ford.

3. Can Kathleen Wynne, as her last act, save the Liberals from total annihilation? A decent contingent of 15-20 seats is possible and, while it would be still a loss, it would also be a huge improvement from the 5 seats that the polls are predicting.

[PeteB]

Worth noting - the latest LISPOP projection:

PC - 64 seats
NDP - 48 seats
Liberal - 12 seats

A brand new set of polls from Ipsos, Pollara and Leger among approximately 3000 respondents released this week with virtually identical results, suggest that popular support levels in Ontario at the moment are NDP 38%, Conservatives 37%, and Liberals 21%. When that gets translated into seats through the LISPOP algorithm, the totals are Conservatives 64, NDP 48, and Liberals 12. This would put the province on the verge of minority government. The Conservatives could only lose one more seat and retain a majority. The discrepancy between vote support and seat totals results from the Conservative vote being more efficiently distributed than the New Democrats, who would waste votes by winning a number of ridings by big margins. All these polls were conducted before the Ford membership buying tape was known, and this Sunday's leadership debate could also have a huge impact upon the election outcome.

[PeteB]

Really Interesting discussion here

https://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/the-changing-minds-of-ontario-voters

Erin Kelly of Advanced Symbolics on their polling
14 ridings that the NDP needs to win, and can swing the NDP to gov't, only need a 5 point swing of PC voters to the NDP. NONE are named but Bay of Quinte, which is now described as PCvsNDP seat.

I heard it this morning - a very interesting perspective.  But the bottom line is that Erin (or "Polly" ) is not confident of calling the election because of the large number of undecideds.

[PeteB]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

[PeteB]

An interesting article in the SF Chronicle:

https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Rob-Ford-s-brother-tests-a-Canadian-brand-of-12943899.php

[PeteB]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

Not necessarily a better way to look at it is look what the Tories got.  Provincewide they got 35.1% in the last federal election which is not far off what they are polling now so if the 65.7% who voted for progressive parties went mostly NDP they could win here.  Off course PCs have an incumbent MPP which probably helps a bit.

If you look at the 2014 transposed results (courtesy of electionprediction.org) PC had 39%, Liberals 38% and NDP 17%.  While that still means that there is a potential majority against the Tories, it's a huge leap to assume that ALL of these Liberal voters (in a reasonably conservative area of Ontario) would suddenly jump in bed with the NDP.  If even 25% of the Liberal voters chose the PC (or if a minority of the former Liberal voters just abstained), the Tories would hold the seat.

I could more easily imagine the Liberals potentially winning Bay of Quinte, by getting all the anti-PC vote, but not right now when they are in a freefall.

[PeteB]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

[PeteB]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

But lets look at the context of 2011 vs 2015

NDP - 23%/12%  -11
Liberal - 20%/50% +30
Cons - 52%/34% - 18

Big shifts can happen here, its not out of scope to say the NDP can win here now when in 2015 the Liberals went from third to winning and gaining 30%. The NDP momentum now is not that far off of the Trudeau momentum in 2015.

It certainly CAN happen.  I am just sceptical, with the PC vote pretty much holding steady in the polls, about Bay of Quinte being that riding.  I am sure that the majority of former Liberal voters in the riding prefer the NDP to the PC, and I am sure that some of them will actually even bother enough to come out and vote for the NDP.  But the leap from there to the conclusion that NDP would have enough votes to win, against an incumbent who won the old Prince Edward Hastings riding with 60% last time, would imho require the PC numbers to start falling significantly.

In my book, NDP would have to take 4 or 5 Ottawa ridings, before they start taking rural ridings in the East, like this one, and I am not yet seeing any indication of that happening.  Tbh I am not even convinced yet that they can take Ottawa Centre from Naqvi.

[PeteB]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

That was just me being a snarky dick.

It's Friday - snarky dick works !

[PeteB]

Ford sure doesn't like this Forum poll

https://twitter.com/JohnLorinc/status/1000098044531036160

Dear John letter... how quaint...

I was commenting on how Andrea Horwath has problems with her candidates. Ford on the other hand has no problems...he is a one man show...from campaign planning...to execution... to writing letters to the pollsters..?!?

There is a case to be made that the Forum poll was an outlier, but this is NOT how to make it! Nor is this how to run a campaign - we'll see if it hurts him.

[PeteB]

Not that I'm saying it'll matter in the end, but Bay of Quinte is the most likely seat the "poppy" issue will cost the NDP - if there's one.

I saw The National Post made something over that.  Maybe they should stop posting articles from disgraced convicted felon Conrad Black before they judge other people.

Is he still relevant? I know he went apesh*t when Bob Rae got elected and maybe single handily played a role in bringing down the NDP government. How will Bay Street react if the NDP wins this time?

We'll see the Bay Street reaction in a week. Andrea Horwath was with the G&M editorial board on wednesday. I don't expect the Globe to endorse her but their opinion in that editorial will signal if Bay St. will play ball. Of course, she has to win first.

[PeteB]

Could Jim Bradley lose?

I think so.  He's never run in an election where the Liberals were the third place party.

How strong of an incumbent is he?

I've dealt with Jim on some other business matters and my perception was always that he had a huge local stature and wide community support. That is important down in Niagara and, had you asked whether he can lose a few weeks ago, I would have said NO. Now, however, I think that St. Catharines is wide open to both PC and NDP. If the Liberals manage to keep 15-20 seats though (and I know I am in a minority here, even thinking that), I wouldn't be surprised to see Bradley's as one of them.

[PeteB]

Could Jim Bradley lose?

I think so.  He's never run in an election where the Liberals were the third place party.

How strong of an incumbent is he?

I've dealt with Jim on some other business matters and my perception was always that he had a huge local stature and wide community support. That is important down in Niagara and, had you asked whether he can lose a few weeks ago, I would have said NO. Now, however, I think that St. Catharines is wide open to both PC and NDP. If the Liberals manage to keep 15-20 seats though (and I know I am in a minority here, even thinking that), I wouldn't be surprised to see Bradley's as one of them.

Further to this discussion, here is Global TV's take today:

St. Catharines [PC-NDP] Liberal incumbent Jim Bradley has held this riding since 1977 and despite four decades of ebbs and flows in the Liberal tide, he’s always managed to return to Queen’s Park. This time, though, the anti-Liberal tide may be too deep, even for Bradley. Both the NDP and the PCs, perhaps sensing that change is about to come to St. Catharines, have each sent their leaders to this riding. Wynne has not dropped in. Tory Sandie Bellows is a slightly better bet than New Democrat Jennie Stevens to end Bradley’s long tenure.

[PeteB]

Further to this discussion, here is Global TV's take today:

St. Catharines [PC-NDP] Liberal incumbent Jim Bradley has held this riding since 1977 and despite four decades of ebbs and flows in the Liberal tide, he’s always managed to return to Queen’s Park. This time, though, the anti-Liberal tide may be too deep, even for Bradley. Both the NDP and the PCs, perhaps sensing that change is about to come to St. Catharines, have each sent their leaders to this riding. Wynne has not dropped in. Tory Sandie Bellows is a slightly better bet than New Democrat Jennie Stevens to end Bradley’s long tenure.

Instinctually, I would give the PCs an advantage given that any residual strength Jim Bradley maintains hurts the NDP more.  Though I guess one could counter that with "populism...orange wave...Andrea is the agent of change."

I agree. St. Catharines is fertile ground for the Ford populism and the Liberal voters who stay with Bradley will negatively impact the NDP's chances of overcoming the PC candidate. Bradley's voters tend to be strong local community guys, who would presumably be interested in what the NDP is offering.  Still, I would label this as a genuine 3 way race ( I am still not writing off Bradley either, but only on the slim chance that Wynne kills it in the debate tomorrow).

[PeteB]

And, since I keep talking about it, here is a speech that Kathleen Wynne should give (at the debate or elsewhere), and one which I think would keep the Liberals to 15-20 seats, and ensure a minority government:

Suggested "Save the furniture" speech for Kathleen Wynne tomorrow:

The Liberals have been in power for fifteen years and I have been privileged to be your Premier for the past five. During this time we have made great progress in labour rights such as raising the minimum wage, ‎helping the least privileged, improving our environment, and bringing Ontario firmly into a leadership position, both economically and as a great place to live.

At the same time we  are aware that we have made some mistakes and become too complacent. Some of those mistakes I have begun to fix and others will continue this work, after I am gone. I accept that people want change and that my party may not form the next government.  But, when faced with a choice, you always have to look‎ at the alternatives, and choose the best option for you, your family, community and the province.

You essentially have two choices‎ before you - one is to give a majority to one of the other two parties and the other is to ensure that there are checks and balances in the next parliament. 

If the PC party gets into power you will face severe cuts to employment and services, the death of compassion and environmental rights and, don't kid yourselves, your life may never be the same. Their leader had the opportunity to prove his worth at the City of Toronto, where the city was a subject of ridicule worldwide, and the promised efficiencies never materialized.‎

If you choose the NDP, you may be making the same mistake that your parents did in 1990 - bringing an inexperienced protest movement into government, where unchecked they can do more harm then good. If they can make a ‎seven billion dollar mistake in their projections now, think how incompetent they may be in power. Sometimes those who mean well don't have the capacity to follow through, and you are really gambling with your wellbeing here. Is the gamble worth it?

What is your alternative then, you ask? Vote for those candidates, whom you feel will fight for you, but do not do it mechanically, or by party affiliation. What I can promise you is that, if we have a strong contingent of Liberal MPPs at Queens' Park, whoever forms government may or may not have our support, but they will always have to reckon with Liberals who will NOT give them a carte blanche‎ to dismantle our values, our prosperity and our compassion. 

I thank you for the privilege of being in charge of this province and ask you to think wisely and make the decision that is right for your future.
‎

[PeteB]

Game changer!

https://twitter.com/OntarioPCParty/status/1000439982430085121

This will bring back the socons pissed about Allen who also drink vote. Its like eight people but I'm one of them. Woo cheap beer!!!

Looking at this seriously (yes, I know it's hard to ), there are two possible conclusions:

1. PC campaign feels that they have to bolster their core support (Buck beer is Ford Nation campaign promise), OR

2. Doug Ford came up with this brainwave on his own and didn't consult anyone.

My money (at least one beercan's worth) is on #2.

[PeteB]

Well this is a surprise - if trade unionists like Romano that could certainly help him get re-elected:

https://www.sootoday.com/local-news/surprise-pc-endorsement-shows-union-members-need-to-be-wooed-says-local-2251-prez-934848

To a degree yes, but from the Northern ON point of view, it's just hedging your bets and ensuring that a possible future Minister (as Romano will undoubtedly be if PC wins) understands who is supporting him. NDP is already well represented in the North, so what does Soo have to lose by choosing Romano instead of a rookie NDP MPP?

Just shows that contrary to the current hype, the PC and NDP are pretty "egal" out there in the real world.

[PeteB]

Also, I fully expect that one of the two Liberal MPPs in Thunder Bay (Mauro or Gravelle) gets re-elected. It would strengthen TB's position in any minority government situation, and leave them as viable future Liberal leaders.