Ontario 2018 election

[mileslunn]

One more important caveat: we have been in field for just one night.

Also how many respondents?  If say only 100 or 200 it might be due to large margin of error.  If 400-500 more likely to be in the ballpark.

More than 500.

Okay then I think that is significant although always good to get another day to just to confirm.

[mileslunn]

Big news: Hazel McCallion endorses Doug Ford.  Not sure that will make a big difference provincewide but could definitely help in Mississauga where she was very popular.  Definitely a good catch and helps deflect from the bad news.

[PeteB]

Big news: Hazel McCallion endorses Doug Ford.  Not sure that will make a big difference provincewide but could definitely help in Mississauga where she was very popular.  Definitely a good catch and helps deflect from the bad news.

As we discussed this morning .  There will be a video of the endorsement by tonight.

Who would give Doug a high-profile character endorsement...?

Anyone know Hurricane Hazel’s thoughts on this election?

You'd be surprised...and yes, HH is going to be one of them!

[PeteB]

BTW, somewhat confusingly, Hazel McCallion also endorsed Charles Sousa, the current Finance Minister, as the MPP in Mississauga Lakeshore today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et87aTDXjS0

[Hatman 🍁]

Meh. The PCs were probably going to sweep the city anyways.

[Mike88]

Maclean’s-Pollara poll: (online poll)

38% NDP (+8)
37% PC (-3)
18% Lib (-5)
  5% Green (-1)
  2% Others (+1)

Poll conducted between 21 and 22 May. Polled 870 voters in Ontario. MoE of 3.3%.

[mileslunn]

Meh. The PCs were probably going to sweep the city anyways.

If they are winning all these seats in GTA, only way I can see NDP making up for this is pick up a whole bunch of rural Southwestern Ontario ridings.  Certainly possible although recent history shows pretty strong Tory base, but when you start polling in high 30s parties win places they wouldn't expect.

[DC Al Fine]

Maclean’s-Pollara poll: (online poll)

38% NDP (+8)
37% PC (-3)
18% Lib (-5)
  5% Green (-1)
  2% Others (+1)

Poll conducted between 21 and 22 May. Polled 870 voters in Ontario. MoE of 3.3%.

Sub 20% for the Libs? That's approaching wipeout territory.

[Hatman 🍁]

Meh. The PCs were probably going to sweep the city anyways.

If they are winning all these seats in GTA, only way I can see NDP making up for this is pick up a whole bunch of rural Southwestern Ontario ridings.  Certainly possible although recent history shows pretty strong Tory base, but when you start polling in high 30s parties win places they wouldn't expect.

I've already posted the seats I think the NDP would win to form a majority, and it only included on Mississauga riding (Malton). Replace that with Oxford or Elgin or Whitby or Kitchener-Conestoga or Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, and there you go.

[King of Kensington]

Here's Hatman's list again, to spare everyone else having to look back 10 pages.

Well, it would involve a near (or complete) whipe out of the Liberal Party, but here are 63 seats (what is needed for a majority) the NDP could win. Some of these are a bit far fetched, but one has to suspend their disbelief a bit if this is going to be possible.

1. Ottawa Centre
2. Ottawa—Vanier
3. Bay of Quinte
4. Kingston and the Islands
5. Peterborough—Kawartha
6. Durham
7. Oshawa
8. Brampton Centre
9. Brampton East
10. Brampton North
11. Brampton South
12. Brampton West
13. Mississauga—Malton
14. Scarborough Centre
15. Scarborough—Guildwood
16. Scarborough North
17. Scarborough—Rouge Park
18. Scarborough Southwest
19. Don Valley East
20. Beaches—East York
21. Davenport
22. Parkdale—High Park
23. Spadina—Fort York
24. Toronto Centre
25. Toronto—Danforth
26. University—Rosedale
27. Humber River—Black Creek
28. York South—Weston
29. Hamilton Centre
30. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
31. Hamilton Mountain
32. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
33. Niagara Centre
34. Niagara Falls
35. St. Catharines
36. Brantford—Brant
37. Cambridge
38. Guelph
39. Huron—Bruce
40. Kitchener Centre
41. Kitchener South—Hespeler
42. Perth—Wellington
43. Waterloo
44. Chatham-Kent—Leamington
45. Essex
46. London—Fanshawe
47. London North Centre
48. London West
49. Sarnia—Lambton
50. Windsor—Tecumseh
51. Windsor West
52. Algoma—Manitoulin
53. Mushkegowuk—James Bay
54. Nickel belt
55. Sault Ste. Marie
56. Sudbury
57. Timiskaming—Cochrane
58. Timmins
59. Kenora—Rainy River
60. Kiiwetinoong
61. Thunder Bay—Atikokan
62. Thunder Bay—Superior North
63. Toronto—St. Paul's

[King of Kensington]

I'd really like to see a poll with the NDP with a comfortable lead in the City of Toronto.  Scarborough "should" be going NDP but Ford makes that harder.

[PeteB]

I'd really like to see a poll with the NDP with a comfortable lead in the City of Toronto.  Scarborough "should" be going NDP but Ford makes that harder.

I said it before but I will say it again - careful what you wish for.  If NDP has a major boost, and the Liberal vote totally tanks in Toronto, you will have NDP picking up a lot of TO seats, but you will also have PC pick up 7-10 extra seats, that they otherwise wouldn't.  And with the current polling, that is probably enough for a PC majority.

[DL]

Any way you slice it, i expect the Liberals to be reduced to just 3 or 4 seats

[King of Kensington]

Ideally, the "John Tory Liberal" constituency of North Toronto/North York stays Liberal but the Ford municipal vote in Scarborough doesn't really translate into PC votes in the end.

I suppose that's possible.  The Liberals are still AFAIK polling close to 30% in Toronto and I don't think there's been an even drop everywhere.  I suspect their vote has tanked much more in "Ford Nation" (remember that some working class outer TO seats including the one Ford is running in stayed Liberal in the 2011 federally) than in the more well-to-do districts.

[mileslunn]

Ideally, the "John Tory Liberal" constituency of North Toronto/North York stays Liberal but the Ford municipal vote in Scarborough doesn't really translate into PC votes in the end.

I suppose that's possible.  The Liberals are still AFAIK polling close to 30% in Toronto and I don't think there's been an even drop everywhere.  I suspect their vote has tanked much more in "Ford Nation" (remember that some working class outer TO seats including the one Ford is running in stayed Liberal in the 2011 federally) than in the more well-to-do districts.

If Liberals are at 30%, they just play kingmaker.  Due to distribution of vote, PCs at 30% in 416 wins a lot of seats due to poor showing in downtown whereas NDP at 30% also wins a lot of seats due to strong support downtown and pockets in the suburbs.  Liberal support in 416 tends to be evenly spread out so if at 40%, they sweep the city, if it only 30% they lose almost everything.

[lilTommy]

Ideally, the "John Tory Liberal" constituency of North Toronto/North York stays Liberal but the Ford municipal vote in Scarborough doesn't really translate into PC votes in the end.

I suppose that's possible.  The Liberals are still AFAIK polling close to 30% in Toronto and I don't think there's been an even drop everywhere.  I suspect their vote has tanked much more in "Ford Nation" (remember that some working class outer TO seats including the one Ford is running in stayed Liberal in the 2011 federally) than in the more well-to-do districts.

If Liberals are at 30%, they just play kingmaker.  Due to distribution of vote, PCs at 30% in 416 wins a lot of seats due to poor showing in downtown whereas NDP at 30% also wins a lot of seats due to strong support downtown and pockets in the suburbs.  Liberal support in 416 tends to be evenly spread out so if at 40%, they sweep the city, if it only 30% they lose almost everything.

The Pollara had no Toronto Regional, but Yes the TO liberal vote is rather strong, they will out poll the province wide vote. I think Ipsos had the OLP at 27, but province wide were low 20's. There's probably 3-5 seats that will remain OLP even at around/just under 30%.

[King of Kensington]

But is the Liberal vote more efficient than in the 2011 federal election in Toronto?  We shall see. 

Best case scenario for a "progressive" minded voter I think is the NDP winning everywhere it can but the "John Tory Liberal" vote blocking the PCs in a few seats (or the city being entirely orange and blue while the perfect storm makes up for this in SW Ontario).  Worst case scenario is that the PCs get all the territory Ford won municipally plus the more middle class and well to do outer districts due to vote-splitting. 

I still think the PCs can eke out a majority with a similar or even smaller share of the popular vote than the NDP, unfortunately.

[cp]

Maybe another angle might help clarify things:

At what point does the OLP reach BQ 2011 levels? That is to say, what province-wide percentage of support is the tipping point between being a respectable third (10-25 seats) and being utterly routed (<5 seats)? Digging a bit deeper, if the OLP *did* reach that level province-wide, where would they be polling in the GTA?

Also, Hatman, bless you for giving us that tidbit

[PeteB]

BTW, somewhat confusingly, Hazel McCallion also endorsed Charles Sousa, the current Finance Minister, as the MPP in Mississauga Lakeshore today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et87aTDXjS0

To close this off - here's the video of today's McCallion endorsement of Doug Ford:

https://www.cp24.com/video?clipId=1401972

In the one-minute video, McCallion poked fun at Ontario Liberal ads in which they concede things haven't been "perfect" in Wynne's Ontario.

"Well, that's one way of putting it," she says. "As mayor, I never ran the city based on debt."

McCallion called Ford the right leader to "fix" the finances in Canada's largest province, improve health care and get hydro bills under control.

"I know the real Doug Ford and Doug is a family man. He's hardworking. He cares about people of all ages and can be trusted."

Ford, she says, will be "the people's premier."

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet has tweeted NDP in lead for first time, but this only on survey so far, still have evening samples and they are three day rolling averages.  Also urban Southwest Ontario oversampled so will be interesting if we are seeing a convergence here.

[Pericles]

Wow looks like the NDP are even with the PCs already and could end up even better. This campaign has gone brilliantly for them so far.

[Hatman 🍁]

I had done a transposition of the mayoral vote a while ago, but never posted it. King of Kensington keeps mentioning Tory Liberal seats, so here are the top John Tory ridings:

1) Don Valley West: 68%
2) Eglinton-Lawrence: 60%
3) Toronto-St. Paul's: 57%
4) Spadina-Fort York: 49%
5) University-Rosedale: 49%
6) Willowdale: 48%
7) Etobicoke-Lakeshore: 47%
8 ) Beaches-East York: 46%
9) Don Valley East: 45%
10) Toronto Centre: 44%
11) Etobicoke Centre: 44%
12) Parkdale-High Park 44%
13) Don Valley North: 43%
14) Toronto-Danforth: 42%

[PeteB]

I had done a transposition of the mayoral vote a while ago, but never posted it. King of Kensington keeps mentioning Tory Liberal seats, so here are the top John Tory ridings:

1) Don Valley West: 68%
2) Eglinton-Lawrence: 60%
3) Toronto-St. Paul's: 57%
4) Spadina-Fort York: 49%
5) University-Rosedale: 49%
6) Willowdale: 48%
7) Etobicoke-Lakeshore: 47%
8 ) Beaches-East York: 46%
9) Don Valley East: 45%
10) Toronto Centre: 44%
11) Etobicoke Centre: 44%
12) Parkdale-High Park 44%
13) Don Valley North: 43%
14) Toronto-Danforth: 42%

Out of those:

Safe NDP:
Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth

Safe (as much as they can be) Liberal:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

TCTC (Liberal/PC)
Willowdale
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley East
Etobicoke Centre
Don Valley North

TCTC (Liberal/NDP) :
Beaches-East York


So, if the Liberal vote collapses totally, PCs can get an extra 6 seats here.  Add another 4-5 Scarborough seats and Etobicoke North, and they have a majority.

[King of Kensington]

So, if the Liberal vote collapses totally, PCs can get an extra 6 seats here.  Add another 4-5 Scarborough seats and Etobicoke North, and they have a majority.

Unless somehow a 1990-style wave delivers about a dozen or so seats in rural and rurban Ontario to the NDP offsets that.

[mileslunn]

Ekos, Innovative research, Mainstreet (for subscribers only), and Forum will all be out tomorrow.  Abacus on Sunday.  If they all show the NDP ahead, then that means Horwath is favoured to win.  Off course devil in details matter as PC vote is more likely to show up and more motivated but that might only save them if a point or two behind, won't work if more than five points behind or even 3 points.