Bulgaria 2013

[GMantis]

I was thinking of making a thread for this for a long time and of course someone beat me

Perhaps I can still add something to the amusing, though rather short description of the parties by WillipsBrighton.

GERB - basically Boyko Borisov's tool to take and keep power. Besides him, it's mostly an appalling collection of mediocrities and lackeys. They present themselves as populists, but in fact are ulta liberals (in the European sense). Borisov's rule has also been the most authoritarian since 1989. And yes, they're deeply connected with the Mafia, though you don't hear much about it from the tame media.

BSP - they are post-Communist, though they are trying to remodel themselves as a modern social democratic party - without much success, though by veering to the right they have lost many of their supporters to various nationalist parties. Their opposition to GERB's government was always rather muted and the fact that their leader is refusing to run for Prime Minister doesn't inspire much confidence (and that his appointed candidate is also very conservative on economics doesn't inspire much enthusiasm among BSP core voters).

MRF - nationalist Turkish party but also as much pro-corruption and pro-Mafia as GERB It's widely considered that the new leader is just for PR purposes and Dogan is still firmly in control behind the scenes. By the way, polls almost always underestimate MRF as their supporters are undersampled and they get many votes from Turkey. For various reasons, they are the most hated party in Bulgaria and most leading parties (with the notable exception of BSP) have declared that they won't ally with them.

Atack - nationalist party, but they unofficially supported Borisov for a long time, which almost led them to extinction, until the recent protests have energized them and they're practically a lock in to enter parliament now.

Movement "Bulgaria of the Citizens" (BDG) - Mostly relies on the personal popularity of Bulgaria's first European commissar and on the remains of the UDF. They are close to the 4% threshold, but will probably enter.

The parties below will probably not enter parliament, though their chances are growing after the recent scandals hitting GERB.

Order, Law and Justice (RZS) -  supposedly a populist party, but mostly the means for their eccentric leader Yane Yanev to enter parliament. They zealosly supported GERB during most of the last four years and most indications are that they will gladly continue in this role if they manage to get in - for which they have a good chance.

Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria (DSB) - For all practical purposes a fan club of Ivan Kostov, former prime minister and principal architect of most of the dubious reforms which still shape Bulgarian society today. The fact that his chance to enter parliament is rather low shows well how popular those reforms where. He may have a chance if Borisov is damaged enough by scandals.

National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria (NFSB) - a collection of various nationalist groups, including parts of "Attack", which were alienated by their support of the GERB government. Most notably, they are supported by the cable TV station SKAT which once propeled "Attack" into parliament but broke away from them in 2009.

UDF - Second oldest of the parties currently running, as well as a former party of many of the politicians of the other parties, but now just a pale shadow of its old glory. The were for a long time stronger than DSB, but now that most of their notable personalities have abandoned them and they broke away from their alliance with DSB, they seem to be headed towards the oblivion they should have entered long ago.

Below these are various nationalist and personality parties who have little to none chance to enter parliament, though the so called "company vote" (ie vote buying and the like) shouldn't be discounted.

[GMantis]

Cheers for the explanation.

So Bulgaria joins the Eastern Europe trend of Left-less elections.

Not quite. The BSP has a moderately left-wing platform (very, very moderate as they still propose a flat tax rate for all but a small minority), while the various nationalist parties and protest parties (parties that were formed or claim to represent the mass protest movement) often are very much to the left of BSP, but except for Ataka and perhaps NFSB they have little chance to enter parliament.

During the last days, a big eavesdropping scandal hit GERB. Will it have any impact on the results?

Polls are very mixed. Some predict GERB over 10% in front of BSP, others have them almost dead even.

It has had some effects and in recent polls the margin between BSP and GERB has narrowed.

For example (number of deputies - 240 in total -  in parenthesis):

                  Alpha Research (7-8 May)     Mediana (6-8 May)   Sova Haris (2-7 May)  Gallup Int. *
GERB         33% (96)                               32% (88)                 33.2% (99)                  34.3% (93)
BSP           28% (81)                               31.5% (87)              32.4% (97)                  33.8% (91)
MRF          10% (29)                               11.6% (32)              8.3% (25)                    10.2% (28)
Ataka       7.5% (22)                             8.0% (22)                 6.4% (19)                    5.3% (14)
BDG         4% (12)                                 4% (11)                    3.8%                           5.2% (14)        
RZS         2.7%                                                                       3.8%
DSB                                                       1.9%                         1.7%
NFSB                                                      2.1%                         1%
UDF                                                                                         2.3%

An outlier, NCIOM (who are suspected of being controlled by GERB), has indeed a nearly 10% margin: GERB 34% (101), BSP 25% (74), MRF 13% (38), Ataka 9% (27).

It seems that most of those who are disappointed with GERB either won't vote or will prefer voting for a minor party (with some suggesting as many as 8 parties in parliament), which explains GERB is still consistently in the lead. It has also been suggested that the GERB vote may be inflated, due to voters being reluctant to claim that they oppose them.

* Not affiliated with Gallup, Inc.

[GMantis]

In other news, GERB are retaliating to the eavesdropping scandal by claiming that Sergei Stanishev, the leader of BSP, bought his position of leader of PES by awarding a contract for Bulgarian identity documents to Siemens, which has connections with Hannes Swoboda, the President of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats. Stanishev who doesn't seem to be fazed by this rather dubious accusation (as Swoboda pointed out, Stanishev wasn't even nominated by him), has stated that he would give up his parliamentary immunity and challenged the former interior minister Tsvetanov, who is deeply involved in the wiretapping scandal) to do the same.

Regarding the electoral campaign, thankfully this dreary, content-less, debate-less and pointless campaign is ending today, which is the best that can be said about it. Somewhat more interesting is how a new government is going to be formed. As coalitions are not exactly popular among Bulgaria's electorate, all leading have been making solemn vows not to enter into certain (or any) coalitions. In short:

Boyko Borisov has said that he won't ally with anybody (he has backtracked recently to claim that an alliance is possible with a right-wing party)
BSP and MRF have promised won't ally with GERB.
Ataka won't ally with anybody and especially not with GERB and MRF (not that anyone would want to ally with them).
BDG won't ally with GERB, BSP or MRF
The situation is further complicated by the fact that it's very likely that three parties may be needed to form a stable coalition. So it remains to be seen whether one (or all) of the party leaders have been shamelessly lying or whether there will be yet another election...

[GMantis]

Is the King Simon II Movement still around? I know they changed their name to something more generic but does that party even still exist? Or have they totally changed into the DBG?

Yes, it's now called the National Movement for Stability and Progress (the acronym is the same in Bulgarian) and they're no longer led by Simeon. They're participating in the election together with the People's Party Freedom and Dignity, a breakaway fraction from the MRF.

[GMantis]

What are the reasons Bulgarian voters are voting on such horrible parties? I get that voters are cynical and apathetic by now, but its still surprising that such high numbers support parties that are so objectively awful.

So what factors are at work here. Clientilistic networks where they hope to gain if "their" patron gets in? Media monopolies distorting reality?

There is obviously a lack of choice. At this point all major parties have been discredited at this point but the alternatives are too divided and weak. The mass protests earlier this year were directed against all parties, which had the drawback that they were unable to organize themselves for the election and as a result there are several parties who claim to represent them (though many of these are just of collection of have-been politicians) and of course many simply won't vote due to their disgust with the political system.

Your explanations are partly correct. While no one can really hope to get anything from their vote (except those selling theirs, of course), in some cases local oligarchs, who have practically taken over government in certain areas, have pressured their employees into voting for them (or for parties they support). While this euphemistically called "company vote" doesn't appear in polls, it nearly managed to get a political party in parliament last time around and according to some estimates could reach up to 200,000 votes this time. Regarding media manipulation, this certainly exists, with most mass media having become extremely pro-GERB and with most polling agencies under control of various parties (very often GERB). Which may explain why GERB still hasn't collapsed despite all the revelations about them.

[GMantis]

Speaking of electoral irregularities, Bulgarian police seized today 350 thousands supposedly defective ballots, which were for some reason kept by the printing house which also made all other ballots. In an interesting coincidence, the owner of this company is a local GERB councilor. In light of this, one wonders how many ballots would have been found if this raid had been carried out earlier...

[GMantis]

A relatively close race so far, according to the "temperature" reports:

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Apparently, now it's getting warmer around the BSP headquarters (31.7), while around the GERB headquarters it's getting cooler and cloudier (28.6)...
In other news, a mobile listening station has been spotted with equal frequency near Bankya and Buzludzha at 30.4%. 11% claim to have seen the station near the Saray, while 6% have seen it at protests in front of Sofia's mosque. 3% report seeing it in front of SKAT TV and it has been seen with lesser frequency at other places.

Bulgaria has an exit-poll ban until the vote is over, but the news media uses "temperatures" instead ...

Book rankings are also popular on election day. For example, a newspaper is rating comics popularity among their staff.

[GMantis]

Did you vote and if yes, for which party ?

Yes, for the Bulgarian Socialist Party.

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There is of course the official site of the Central Electoral commission, though it's only in Bulgarian. Electoral geography has pretty detailed results, usually with maps, though of course with some delay. The problem with the official results is that besides the national level results, only the electoral district and individual precinct results are reported. From the precinct data more detailed maps can be made, though it's a laborious process.

[GMantis]

Care to explain the joke behind that article for those of us who don't speak Bulgarian?

I presume you're asking about the comics? Most of them have the party colors and the silhouettes of their leaders, but the comic "titles" are also hints:
The first one is "We can return.." which references BSP motto "Let's return Bulgaria to people".
The second one is titled "We build and we go", referencing GERB's claim to have build more than any other government since 1989.
The third is "The tower is speaking, answer Falcon", alluding to Dogan, the former MRF's leader, who's name means falcon in Turkish.
Fourth is "I have a plan" referencing Ataka's controversial economic program.
The fifth is "Television games", referencing the National Movement for the Salvation of Bulgaria, which was formed around SKAT television.
Sixth is "Isn't it normal to be me", which parodies the opening lines of a frequently aired radio ad by Miglena Kuneva, leader of DBG.
Seventh is "The violets are not speaking to me any more" and is a joke about how the DSB leader Ivan Kostov once said that he talked to his violets.
Eight is "We bring signals. Of all kinds" referencing how the leader of RZS Yane Yanev became famous by reporting alleged cases of corruption and abuse of power.
Ninth is "Do you remember madam", which is the name of an old song. This is presumably about the UDF, who has only memories to give them comfort. The lion silhouette is also a reminder of their old symbol.
The last one is "And some ride a bicycle", which is about the Greens

[GMantis]

Thanks.

So the Movement for Stability and Progress isn't even worth mocking? They did run the country more recently than the UDF.

Probably they're not getting enough votes in the exit polls to reach 1 percent. After all, who is going to vote for the King's party if the King has left it. But it's possible that they're under-polled, as they're allied with a breakaway faction which is likely to be under-sampled and/or get most of their votes from abroad. So it's not entirely impossible for the NMSS to enter parliament or come close, but it won't be due their efforts.

[GMantis]

All the parties are horrible, but it would be cool if BSP won and the pattern of governing parties never winning re-election held up.

Even if BSP lost, it seems unlikely that GERB would be able to form a government. Of course, MRF have been capable of even more dramatic reversals.

The Bulgarian Embassy in London is right next to my house and at the moment there's a massive queue outside, but it's moving so slowly it looks as if no-one is even entering the building. Perhaps the fact that people are lining up from 2 completely different positions on each side of the building doesn't help.

Interesting, in Bulgaria turnout is slightly lower than last time. I wonder if these are people enraged by Borisov's attempt to steal the election or people afraid of the "communists" winning.

[GMantis]

While no one can really hope to get anything from their vote (except those selling theirs, of course), in some cases local oligarchs, who have practically taken over government in certain areas, have pressured their employees into voting for them (or for parties they support). While this euphemistically called "company vote" doesn't appear in polls, it nearly managed to get a political party in parliament last time around and according to some estimates could reach up to 200,000 votes this time.

Which party was that, out of curiosity?

Lider, the personal party of Hristo Kovachki, owner of various energy-related businesses. The core voters of his party were the workers in his plants or mines, by all accounts under threats. He won a municipality, where he controlled a large coal mine, the main employer there.

[GMantis]

While no one can really hope to get anything from their vote (except those selling theirs, of course), in some cases local oligarchs, who have practically taken over government in certain areas, have pressured their employees into voting for them (or for parties they support). While this euphemistically called "company vote" doesn't appear in polls, it nearly managed to get a political party in parliament last time around and according to some estimates could reach up to 200,000 votes this time.

Which party was that, out of curiosity?

Lider, the personal party of Hristo Kovachki, owner of various energy-related businesses. The core voters of his party were the workers in his plants or mines, by all accounts under threats. He won a municipality, where he controlled a large coal mine, the main employer there.

How did he pull that of? (assuming secret ballots) Was the workers told they would be fired if he didnt get a certain percentage?

Perhaps, or manipulation at the ballot stations located in those areas where he controlled the local economy.

Polling place "shuttle service" in Bulgaria:



(I often forget how poor most parts of this country (and in Romania) still are ...)

Most people aren't that poor, though most Gypsies (like those in the picture) certainly are.

[GMantis]

Speaking of Romas (isn't gypsies a politically incorrect name these days, like ni**er ? Even though like 90% of people here in Austria refer to them as "Zigeuner" as well, and not as Roma ... ):

Not really. To an extent I'm influenced by the usual Bulgarian term (tsigani, which has the same etymology as the German word), which are used by the vast majority of people here as well. And at least here there are much worse words than Gypsy, which would be the equivalent of  ni**er. Also, the word Roma, apart from being "politically correct" (I mean by this a word that is mean to change the meaning of a subject just by renaming) and factually incorrect (only some Gypsies use this term), is also essentially a racist word, as it means "human" (implying that all others are not human).

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Most parties have declared that they want to help them integrate in Bulgarian society. In reality, all of them prefer to just leave the Gypsies them alone and do little else except providing welfare payments. Attempts to help them with matters that are actually important, most notably education, have been patchy at best.

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Yes, the numbers before the percentages are the party numbers, as listed on the ballot. In this case, starting from the top, they are: GERB, BSP, MRF, Ataka, DBG, Center - Freedom and Dignity (a coalition which includes the former King's party), DSB, UDF, RZS and NFSB.

[GMantis]

Yeah, I guess it's pretty bad when you have only 1 embassy for tens of thousands of expat voters in those cities, when usually there is 1 precinct for every 500-1000 voters in the home country ...

Precincts abroad are made by request and usually there are indeed only up to 500 wanting to vote. In Turkey, where a lot more people want to vote, there are also many more precincts. In this case it seems that many Bulgarians have suddenly decided to vote.

[GMantis]

It looks like the main reason for the mile-long wait in London and other Bulgarian embassies around the globe is that turnout there picked up SIGNIFICANTLY in the afternoon for some reason and the embassy folks have to handle a great deal of same-day-registration as well, because many people in the lines did not pre-register and now the embassy-folks have to register them when they want to cast the ballot, which requires some bureaucratic stuff incl. signatures and so on ...

So my theory seems to be correct. But we'll have to find out which of the two suggestions is correct

All the Bulgarian parties want the Roma to find work.

In Western Europe.



(I use Roma and Zigeuner - and "Zico" - interchangeably in daily life.)

I won't deny that most Bulgarians response to criticism by the EU on the treatment of Gypsies is "Why don't you try to integrate them?". And judging from the way France behaved or how Bulgaria and Romania's membership Shengen membership is endlessly held up, most Europeans don't seem to want to integrate them either...

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Partly that, but also due to today's events.

[GMantis]

All the Bulgarian parties want the Roma to find work.

In Western Europe.

Which they are mostly not doing either if they get here ...

In most cases these poor people are pushed into trucks by mafia-like organisations and people traders and transported to Austrian/German cities where they "beg" for money by looking disabled (but when the day is over they walk away like a healthy person etc.), then they go to some empty house/factory building that looks like a trashcan and the next day they are transported by their "supervisors" back to the city center again and the thing starts again ... And the local authorities/police can't do much about it, they can just issue warnings that they will be arrested the next time they encounter them at this property, but can't actually deport them because they are EU citizens. And their puppet masters are actually in Romania/Bulgaria and get most of the money they "beg". A vicious circle in which these poor people are only tools for their puppet masters that need to be jailed.

Most of the "puppet masters" are Gypsies as well, of course.

[GMantis]

today's events

?

Hundreds of thousands extra ballots, made by a GERB local councilor, found; BSP leading in some exit polls; things like that.

[GMantis]

More exact results by the exit polls (deputies in parenthesis):

                           Gallup                 Alpha Research             MBMD                    Sova Haris
GERB                  30.3% (96)         31% (97)                       31.4% (98)            31% (101)      
BSP                    27% (86)            27.1% (85)                     26.2% (81)            25.3% (82)  
MRF                    10.7% (34)         11.05% (35)                   11.5% (36)           10.3% (33)
Ataka                  7.5% (24)           7.5% (23)                      8.2% (25)              7.3% (24)

DBG and DSB are the closest to the 4% threshold.                    

[GMantis]

You speak German IIRC; this is how your country gets reported on here:
http://www.fr-online.de/politik/bulgarien-wo-die-sonne-vom-himmel-faellt,1472596,22704722.html

Interesting point of view. I have to admit that I wasn't aware that old people are from cities to the countryside, perhaps because in statistics they're balanced by all the Gypsies moving in the other direction.

[GMantis]

GMantis, what do you think is a likely coalition if only the 4 parties manage to stay above 4% ?

In decreasing order of likelihood:
GERB-MRF
BSP-MRF (lower because they will likely not to reach 121)
GERB-Ataka



BSP-MRF-Ataka (or more correctly a minority government. tacitly supported by MRF and Ataka)














GERB-BSP
But even GERB-MRF looks dubious at the moment. It seems quite possible that there will be new elections soon...

[GMantis]

Dumb question: Who is the BSP candidate for Prime Minister? You said it was someone other than Stanishev.

Plamen Oresharski, independent and finance minister of the BSP led grand coalition between 2005 and 2009. Rather strange choice for a socialist led coalition, considering  that under his administration one of the lowest flat tax rates in the world was implemented here.

[GMantis]

Dumb question: Who is the BSP candidate for Prime Minister? You said it was someone other than Stanishev.

Plamen Oresharski, independent and finance minister of the BSP led grand coalition between 2005 and 2009. Rather strange choice for a socialist led coalition, considering  that under his administration one of the lowest flat tax rates in the world was implemented here.

Reminds me of when the Hungarian Socialist Party nominated independent former Finance Minister Péter Medgyessy. Medgyessy did win, so maybe not so weird.

There were valid reasons for this choice, but still it's not something that will attract left-wing voters. Ataka had far more left wing positions and it shows (especially considering that a few months ago had been totally written off).

[GMantis]

Interesting read from today's Standard (for German-understanders Lewis and GMantis) about a youth welfare official in Vienna that has been "silenced" now and accused of racism for stating a fact (and very likely the truth) about Roma kids and also Afghan kids coming here:

http://derstandard.at/1363710732864/Rassismusvorwurf-Sprechverbot-fuer-Wiener-Jugendamt-Mitarbeiter

I'm sure those Gypsy and Afghan children will be happy to know to know that their rights are being protected by this measure

I remember when Volen Siderov made the presidential run-off election in 2006, one of the few foreign leaders who called to congratulate him was National Bolshevik Party leader Eduard Limonov. If Attack is half as eccentric as the NBP, yeah, they got some left-wing positions here and there.

They're calling for nationalizations, they're certainly left-wing on economics. In fact, that's largely how they got into parliament in the first place.

[GMantis]

Wikipedia says there was infighting between Stanishev and former president Georgi Purvanov. Is that why they appointed an independent third person as their candidate? Also, what was the nature of the rivalry between Stanishev and Purvanov? Purely personal or was one more left-wing than the other?

I agree that the infighting played a role why the popular Parvanov was not appointed. Unlike the non-party Oresharski, Parvanov was a member of BSP and could certainly undermine Stanishev from within if he became Prime Minister.
As for the reasons for the rivalry, obviously both think that they're the best possible leaders of BSP. As for whether he was more left-wing, it's difficult to say. Parvanov is more opportunistic, while Stanishev is generally more straightforward when defending his positions (though he's also been capable of compromises with right-wing forces). All in all, I wouldn't say that ideology was the main reason for the conflict between them.