Polling out of Alaska is notoriously bad ...
I know I said this before, but I think a lot of bad polling in Alaska has had to do with long-time incumbents outperforming the polls (namely Ted Stevens and Don Young). I'm not sure the polling has been that beyond that.
Democrats have done fairly well in Alaska within the past 10 years. Mark Begich was elected in 2008, defeating an institution of Alaska politics (Ted Stevens). If took a wave in 2014 to take him out, and only barely then. Democrats once reached parity in the Alaska Senate and got very close in the Alaska House. And if you recall, before her national prominence, Sarah Palin was quite popular on both sides (before she fully joined the Fox News types). I remembering seeing Sarah Palin on the news once or twice shortly after her election and I thought she was a pretty compelling figure at the time (this was way before McCain chose her as his running mate). If it wasn't for her, Democrats probably would have won the Governorship in 2006 and Obama could have possibly even won the state in 2008.
I agree with all of this except Obama would've lost there in 2008.