Would Giuliani spark a 3rd party challenge from the right?

[StateBoiler]

Here's a scenario I think might happen. This scenario would be contingent on Giuliani winning the Republican nomination for President.

-Point One: I think there's a number of Republican operatives that have the assumption they will lose 2008 regardless due to blowback from the Bush presidency.

-Point Two: Giuliani will be pressed by some Republicans cause they want to defeat the Democrats and think they cannot nominate the typical conservative that will be able to do the job of winning the election because he is moderate on some issues.

-Point Three: Religious conservatives, mindful of Point One, will defect temporarily to a Constitution Party-type candidate (if not that party). This will serve two purposes.

Purpose One: The Democrat, probably a liberal, will win. What can be better for bankrolls and recruiting for religious conservatives than a liberal President? If Giuliani won this hypothetical election, religious conservatives would have just as much disgruntlement, but it would be muted cause of the conundrum of "Who else could we support, the Democrat?"

Purpose Two: If a Giuliani candidacy fails without these religious conservatives, it would reinforce that the Republican Party cannot win without them. And we know that Republicans cannot and will not ridicule this group. So these religious conservatives could force themselves to have more say-so in future nominations.

An example of Purpose Two is Ralph Nader's 2000 performance showing liberal disgust with "The Third Way", and Howard Dean's underdog challenge forcing the rest of the Democratic Party left in 2003. A perfect example of the effect of this is Joe Lieberman. He went from being accepted by acclimation as his party's Vice Presidential nominee at the 2000 Democratic Convention to being kicked out of the party and is now shouted down by Democratic activists and politicians alike.