2008: Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain

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Arizona is sticking with its Senator John McCain. Obama's win in Indiana was a fluke, the only way I see her winning it is if Bayh is her running mate. If he's not on the ticket, Indiana narrowly stays Republican. Georgia, North Carolina, and West Virginia probably don't flip either.

In exit polling, Clinton outpolled Obama.

That's because Clinton wasn't the nominee. If she did win the nomination, she probably loses Indiana, North Carolina and NE-2 from Obama's 2008 map, but she probably gains Missouri (plus Arkansas if she picks Blanche Lincoln or Mark Pryor, or she holds Indiana if she picks Evan Bayh, or she picks up Tennessee if she picks Phil Bresdsen).

I don't think she would have outperformed as much as polls show, but she did seem to be a stronger candidate then.

The polls from May showed Obama polling better in general. Of course she'd have been stronger in some areas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Democratic_nominee_vs._Republican_nominee_2