Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[super6646]

Here to be on 1st page

Edit: Damn it!

[Senator Cris]

I think is somewhat interesting that the President has a better approval rating in Minnesota than in Wisconsin and Michigan.

[pbrower2a]

I think is somewhat interesting that the President has a better approval rating in Minnesota than in Wisconsin and Michigan.

Obama won Minnesota by a smaller margin than those in which he won Michigan and Wisconsin in 2008, and by close to the same margin by which he won Wisconsin in 2012 and less than by which he won Michigan in 2012.  Minnesota has a lower ceiling for Democrats than he does in many other states, but the floor for Democrats in Minnesota has been just under 50% since 1972. The last times that the Republicans won big in Minnesota was for Eisenhower...and if you have ever seen my overlay of the Eisenhower and Obama elections and compared the personalities of both Presidents, you would not find such so ironic. 

In the event of a nationwide blowout for the Democratic nominee (some Democrat 57 and Trump 43) which might allow the Democrat to win 400 or so electoral votes -- Texas deciding under/over 400, you might see Minnesota going 55-45 for the Democrat while America as a whole goes 57-43. Oh, Minnesota leans Republican?

No. Minnesota simply isn't very elastic in its voting. It's going to be about even in a Republican blowout (second-best state for McGovern in 1972, and best for Mondale in 1984) and close to the national average in a Democratic blowout (1964, 1992, 1996, and arguably 2008).

[KingSweden]

Per DKE - Looks like Gallup has POTUS at

40A (-2)
55D (+1)

I do not have a link.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Per DKE - Looks like Gallup has POTUS at

40A (-2)
55D (+1)

I do not have a link.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx (your numbers are correct).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Axios/SurveyMonkey, July 25-27, 2509 adults including 2225 registered voters (this is not the SurveyMonkey weekly tracker)

Among adults:

Approve 43 (strongly 25)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 45)

GCB: D 49, R 38

Among RV:

Approve 45 (strongly 28)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 46)

GCB: D 52, R 42

[pbrower2a]

Suffolk, Nevada.

46-49 favorability (which I do not use anymore on my maps)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Suffolk_Nevada_July_2018_27823.pdf

[Sir Mohamed]

Suffolk, Nevada.

46-49 favorability (which I do not use anymore on my maps)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Suffolk_Nevada_July_2018_27823.pdf

That's actually not a bad number for a state that voted for Hillary in '16.

[twenty42]

Suffolk, Nevada.

46-49 favorability (which I do not use anymore on my maps)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Suffolk_Nevada_July_2018_27823.pdf

That's actually not a bad number for a state that voted for Hillary in '16.

I think NV and NH flip to Trump in 2020, and AZ flips Dem.  This will be a wash, of course, and the RB will still decide the race.

[Adam Griffin]

Trump 46/49 in Georgia.

[pbrower2a]

Trump 46/49 in Georgia.

You know the joke about Georgia, don't you? It's that Atlanta is a very sophisticated city surrounded by Georgia. A similar joke can be made of Chicago and Illinois or (almost) Indianapolis and Indiana.

Not my favorite pollster -- but the 2018 midterm election looks like a potential disaster for Republicans.

Republicans might be able to canvass in this state -- just avoid black and Hispanic voters, but at this level I am seeing more support for the African-American female Democrat running for Governor of Georgia than there ever was for some black fellow running from Illinois
 for President.  Senators Isakson and Perdue have approvals in nearly the same area as President Trump. Mercifully for Republicans, neither is up for re-election in 2018. In 2020 and 2022 they will be vulnerable.

Democrats have edges in Secretary of State and the general ballot for the House of Representatives.  Greater Atlanta is probably no less D than such places as Cleveland . But it is one giant metro area dominating the politics of a state, something like Phoenix -- if with a different ethnic mix and about seven times as much rain as Phoenix -- which also has trouble with air quality, rain or not. The President's environmental policies can hurt him in Georgia. 46-49? I have seen wilder polling of Georgia, and I have just tossed one such poll on this map. The 100-DIS model says that Georgia is still possible for Donald Trump.,

It is risky to draw conclusions from one pollster to another, let alone try to extrapolate an answer to an unasked question...  but if you compare the Marist polls of Arizona. Florida (neighboring!). and Ohio to the Gravis poll of Georgia, and making an analogue for Georgia one gets

st    app     elect/not reelect
    
AZ   42-48     35-57
FL    42-46    37-54
OH   42-49    34-58

GA   46-49     39-58  (estimate)

Based on what I see of the Marist polls of three states that Trump won by margins of 3.5%, 1.17%, and 8.07% in 2016 -- a state that he won by 4.09%  should be very much in play. I have seen worse polls of Georgia for Donald Trump. Things get really bleak for President Trump should the Democrat win the gubernatorial election , and a Democratic nominee can make campaign appearances with the Governor practically at will as Obama could not.  

No, I am not showing this extrapolation on the map. I do not show any estimates other than 100-DIS. But I can treat Georgia as a pure toss-up at this point. It is worse for Republicans in 2020 than it was for them in 2008 or 2016.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump 46/49 in Georgia.

You know the joke about Georgia, don't you? It's that Atlanta is a very sophisticated city surrounded by Georgia. A similar joke can be made of Chicago and Illinois or (almost) Indianapolis and Indiana.

I've seen a T-shirt that says "Atlanta: an island in a sea of rednecks."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos, July 26-30, 1873 adults

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac has an upcoming poll on Texas to be released at 2PM EDT. Q usually releases its polls in the early morning, but the state is Texas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, July 26-30, 1993 registered voters.

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+1)

GCB: D 44 (+3), R 37 (-1)

[Brittain33]

Morning Consult/Politico, July 26-30, 1993 registered voters.

I read this as a date typo.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ohio CD-12: Monmouth, July 26-31, 512 registered voters (change from last month).

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 49 (+2)

[twenty42]

Discussion and debate over Trump’s approval are painfully boring at this point. His aggregates haven’t budged in almost four months.

[pbrower2a]

Discussion and debate over Trump’s approval are painfully boring at this point. His aggregates haven’t budged in almost four months.

But we get more substance to polls. For six states we now have the overt question of whether to re-elect or not re-elect the President. In five states that he won and one that he barely lost he gets results that suggest that he would lose ever one of them decisively.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac has an upcoming poll on Texas to be released at 2PM EDT. Q usually releases its polls in the early morning, but the state is Texas.

As promised

TEXAS

(36 electoral votes).

From Quinnipiac:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Texas' college grads still approve of the President 56-42, which is lower than one used to expect.

Senator Ted Cruz has a positive approval rating barely above 50 (50-42, both approval and favorability), but only a 6-point gap over his challenger Beto O'Rourke (49-43).

Governor Abbott has a large, but shrinking lead over his Democratic challenger.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2559


At this point I must consider Texas a toss-up for 2020. Donald Trump is the worst cultural match for Texas as a Republican Presidential nominee since Barry Goldwater.  

Texas is the difference between a Democrat winning the state as did Barack Obama in 2008 or Bill Clinton in the 1990s -- and an Eisenhower-style win. It has looked like the state containing the 400th electoral vote for a Democrat since about 1992.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, July 29-31, 1500 adults including 1222 registered voters.

Among all adults:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

Among RV:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (nc), R 40 (+2)

[twenty42]

Discussion and debate over Trump’s approval are painfully boring at this point. His aggregates haven’t budged in almost four months.

But we get more substance to polls. For six states we now have the overt question of whether to re-elect or not re-elect the President. In five states that he won and one that he barely lost he gets results that suggest that he would lose ever one of them decisively.

So are red states getting redder then? If he is losing support in swing states but his national support is staying put, it has to fill in somewhere.

[The Mikado]

Discussion and debate over Trump’s approval are painfully boring at this point. His aggregates haven’t budged in almost four months.

But we get more substance to polls. For six states we now have the overt question of whether to re-elect or not re-elect the President. In five states that he won and one that he barely lost he gets results that suggest that he would lose ever one of them decisively.

So are red states getting redder then? If he is losing support in swing states but his national support is staying put, it has to fill in somewhere.

Eh. He got 46% of the vote in 2016 and is polling today around ~41%, so you should expect state polls to have him ~4-6 or so off his election result. Some states he's significantly lower than that, others he's held strong.

[KingSweden]

Discussion and debate over Trump’s approval are painfully boring at this point. His aggregates haven’t budged in almost four months.

But we get more substance to polls. For six states we now have the overt question of whether to re-elect or not re-elect the President. In five states that he won and one that he barely lost he gets results that suggest that he would lose ever one of them decisively.

So are red states getting redder then? If he is losing support in swing states but his national support is staying put, it has to fill in somewhere.

Quite possible. Polling suggests that much of his movement comes from gains with GOP since the tax cuts. States with more Republicans and conservative Indies would hypothetically have less drop off.

[pbrower2a]

Discussion and debate over Trump’s approval are painfully boring at this point. His aggregates haven’t budged in almost four months.

But we get more substance to polls. For six states we now have the overt question of whether to re-elect or not re-elect the President. In five states that he won and one that he barely lost he gets results that suggest that he would lose ever one of them decisively.

So are red states getting redder then? If he is losing support in swing states but his national support is staying put, it has to fill in somewhere.

Atlas red or the more commonly-used red in American politics?

Approval ratings for President Trump are uncannily stable, and that seems to reflect that people who disapproved of his Presidency early have been becoming more intense in their disdain for him. He has been successful so far in loading the pain onto the same people. No American President has been successful at that -- unless you mean South American President, as in Hugo Chavez in Venezuela.

Ordinarily 46% of the popular vote isn't enough to win the Presidency, but Trump won the right votes, which is barely possible in a 2% difference between the winner and loser of the popular vote.  Considering that we have not had a President Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, McCain, or Romney, Trump is an unlikely winner. To win again, he needs to gain support -- either from those who voted for Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or Hillary Clinton just to have a chance to win in 2020.

I doubt that Trump could lose more support in ultra-partisan Democratic states such as California, Maryland, Massachusetts, and New York. His losses of support are where they can be -- in states that he either barely lost (Minnesota and New Hampshire) or lost by any margin. Going from 67-26 to 55-44 in West Virginia would hurt him in a re-election bid.  But going from a 1% margin of victory in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to even a 1% loss defeats him if he isn't picking up Minnesota (he won't lose Minnesota while winning Michigan or Wisconsin) . If he is losing a state that he won by more than 8% (Ohio) he has no chance of winning Pennsylvania. Then there is Florida...and then there is Arizona.

Polls for the President from Georgia and Texas are awful for a Republican. Those states have not voted for a Republican nominee for President since 1994 and 1976, respectively. Trump absolutely needs both, but he is now sure of neither.

Republican-leaning states (Atlas blue) seem to be drifting away from Trump. The strong Democratic states cannot go more D.  The Democratic nominee for President is going to run up Obama-like or Reagan-like margins in those states.