State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Ebsy]

So far this year Republicans have picked up one seat and Democrats have picked up two. So +1 for Democrats in special elections.

What did Republicans pick up outside a few party switches?

White Democrat was appointed to a position in the governor's office in Louisiana, no Democrat filed to fill his seat, so the election was between two republican. LA-42.

[mds32]

I am counting special election wins only in the pickups

[Ebsy]

2014 Results from SC-84



Obama got 35.1% of the two party vote here in 2012.

[Mr.Phips]

2014 Results from SC-84



Obama got 35.1% of the two party vote here in 2012.

From what I can tell, it looks like a Dem hasn't held this seat since at least the 1980s and possibly before.  I'm not holding out much hope for a close race here.

[Ebsy]

Ronnie Young (GOP) wins in HD-84, something like 60-37, so a 7 point swing to the Democrats from 2014.

[Ebsy]

2014: GOP + 28.86
2017 Special: GOP +20.65

8 point swing from the last time this seat was contested.

[Holmes]

Wow, that turnout is abysmal.

[smoltchanov]

Wow, that turnout is abysmal.

Those few, who cared - voted, other - had more pressing problems.

[mds32]

Wow a couple thousand dollars could have helped the SCDP pull an upset there. A 7-point swing to the Dems with a 10-3 spending disadvantage? If that was closed up it could have been more like Oklahoma. The SCGOP should be lucky the SC Dems are disorganized.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow a couple thousand dollars could have helped the SCDP pull an upset there. A 7-point swing to the Dems with a 10-3 spending disadvantage? If that was closed up it could have been more like Oklahoma. The SCGOP should be lucky the SC Dems are disorganized.

Ossoff is sucking up all the Democratic money.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wow a couple thousand dollars could have helped the SCDP pull an upset there. A 7-point swing to the Dems with a 10-3 spending disadvantage? If that was closed up it could have been more like Oklahoma. The SCGOP should be lucky the SC Dems are disorganized.

Not a chance

[Holmes]

Wow a couple thousand dollars could have helped the SCDP pull an upset there.

Um. No.

[mds32]

Wow a couple thousand dollars could have helped the SCDP pull an upset there.

Um. No.

There was literally only $13000 in the race. If she had instead of a 10k to 3k disadvantage a 13k to 10k advantage that 7-point swing could have become a 14-point swing easily

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just throwing more money at a race doesn't necessarily help. Just ask Meg Whitman or Jeb Bush.

[mds32]

Just throwing more money at a race doesn't necessarily help. Just ask Meg Whitman or Jeb Bush.

Correct, in a low turnout affair however, where more voters can be pushed and motivated to get out then the more $$$ you have the more people you can turnout.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Just throwing more money at a race doesn't necessarily help. Just ask Meg Whitman or Jeb Bush.

Correct, in a low turnout affair however, where more voters can be pushed and motivated to get out then the more $$$ you have the more people you can turnout.

Especially if you spend it wisely (persuasion-trained paid canvass, field organizers, digital advertisement and organizing) rather than foolishly (JEB's SuperPAC lining the state highways of NH with lawn signs in the days before the primary).

[Ebsy]

Upcoming races:

June 15

TN-95: Vacant following Mark Lovell's (GOP) resignation.

Julie Byrd Ashworth (DEM)
Kevin Vaughan (GOP)
Robert Schutt (IND)
Jim Tomasik (IND)

The seat was Obama 23, Romney 78 in 2012.

June 20

SC-70

Vacant after Joseph Neal (DEM) passed away.

Wendy Brawley (DEM)
Bill Strickland (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 70, Trump 27 in 2016 and Obama 74, Romney 25 in 2012.

SC-48

Vacant following Ralph Norman's (GOP) resignation to run for SC-05.

Bebs Barron Chorak (DEM)
Bruce Bryant (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 35, Trump 60 in 2016 and Obama 35, Romney 63 in 2012.

None of the above races look to be competitive so it will mostly be interesting to watch the swings.

[mds32]

Upcoming races:

June 15

TN-95: Vacant following Mark Lovell's (GOP) resignation.

Julie Byrd Ashworth (DEM)
Kevin Vaughan (GOP)
Robert Schutt (IND)
Jim Tomasik (IND)

The seat was Obama 23, Romney 78 in 2012.

June 20

SC-70

Vacant after Joseph Neal (DEM) passed away.

Wendy Brawley (DEM)
Bill Strickland (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 70, Trump 27 in 2016 and Obama 74, Romney 25 in 2012.

SC-48

Vacant following Ralph Norman's (GOP) resignation to run for SC-05.

Bebs Barron Chorak (DEM)
Bruce Bryant (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 35, Trump 60 in 2016 and Obama 35, Romney 63 in 2012.

None of the above races look to be competitive so it will mostly be interesting to watch the swings.

Actually the Tennessee race is interesting. Not for the Democrat, but for the Independent Robert Schutt who has a surprisingly huge fundraising haul. He could get into the high 20% range with well over $20k for a special election like this.

[GlobeSoc]

Upcoming races:

June 15

TN-95: Vacant following Mark Lovell's (GOP) resignation.

Julie Byrd Ashworth (DEM)
Kevin Vaughan (GOP)
Robert Schutt (IND)
Jim Tomasik (IND)

The seat was Obama 23, Romney 78 in 2012.

June 20

SC-70

Vacant after Joseph Neal (DEM) passed away.

Wendy Brawley (DEM)
Bill Strickland (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 70, Trump 27 in 2016 and Obama 74, Romney 25 in 2012.

SC-48

Vacant following Ralph Norman's (GOP) resignation to run for SC-05.

Bebs Barron Chorak (DEM)
Bruce Bryant (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 35, Trump 60 in 2016 and Obama 35, Romney 63 in 2012.

None of the above races look to be competitive so it will mostly be interesting to watch the swings.

Actually the Tennessee race is interesting. Not for the Democrat, but for the Independent Robert Schutt who has a surprisingly huge fundraising haul. He could get into the high 20% range with well over $20k for a special election like this.

Is he going to be a spoiler or draw roughly even numbers on both sides?

[mds32]

Upcoming races:

June 15

TN-95: Vacant following Mark Lovell's (GOP) resignation.

Julie Byrd Ashworth (DEM)
Kevin Vaughan (GOP)
Robert Schutt (IND)
Jim Tomasik (IND)

The seat was Obama 23, Romney 78 in 2012.

June 20

SC-70

Vacant after Joseph Neal (DEM) passed away.

Wendy Brawley (DEM)
Bill Strickland (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 70, Trump 27 in 2016 and Obama 74, Romney 25 in 2012.

SC-48

Vacant following Ralph Norman's (GOP) resignation to run for SC-05.

Bebs Barron Chorak (DEM)
Bruce Bryant (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 35, Trump 60 in 2016 and Obama 35, Romney 63 in 2012.

None of the above races look to be competitive so it will mostly be interesting to watch the swings.

Actually the Tennessee race is interesting. Not for the Democrat, but for the Independent Robert Schutt who has a surprisingly huge fundraising haul. He could get into the high 20% range with well over $20k for a special election like this.

Is he going to be a spoiler or draw roughly even numbers on both sides?

Since there is a Libertarian in the race that will take 4% probably I can imagine that he could play spoiler depending on his ideology. I checked out his financial reports, he is up with advertisements.

[mds32]

TN-HD-95 Special Election tonight

Next week:
SC-HD-48 (R) - Safe R Hold
SC-HD-70 (D) - Safe D Hold

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

12/18 in:

Vaughan (R): 2486
Ashworth (D): 1340
Schutt: 117
Tomasik: 21
Write-In: 2

https://electioncommission.shelbycountytn.gov/ElectionResults/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

Vaughan (R): 3099 (61.9%)
Ashworth (D): 1737 (34.7%)
Schutt: 143 (2.8%)
Tomasik: 25  (0.5%)
Write-In: 3 (0.1%)

Turnout: 5007


https://electioncommission.shelbycountytn.gov/ElectionResults/

[mds32]

Dems got a 12-point swing in that seat.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dems got a 12-point swing in that seat.

Still, getting less than 35% is pretty pathetic.