Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Alcon]

Yet again, you've completely failed to understand what's going on, CARL.

Rasmussen released the Senate side of a Senate/Presidential poll, with cross-tabs that indicated Presidential support by Senate support.  Using the method I described above, these results correctly predicted McCain +4.  I made the mistake of not including the Presidential preferences of voters undecided in the Senate race, which incorrectly came out to McCain +1-3 (with rounding error leeway).  My conceptual methodology was fine; I just made an arithmetic error.

Calling this an "extrapolation" was incorrect, since it implies I was "assuming" something based on trends or arbitrary allocations.  I was just extracting results that already existed in the poll.

As for:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Where did this BS come from?  I've never said that.  I was using gender as an example of what I'll call a "full-sample subsample set" (FSSS)*, and I haven't even mentioned the Rasmussen national poll.

I really do encourage you to contact the Vorlon, Sam Spade, or any other poll-savvy poster (or one with remotely competent math knowledge), to explain to you that there's nothing wrong with what I did.  The only source of non-human error would be rounding error.

* - Something like male + female, or Begich + Stevens + Undecided, that adds up to 100% of the sample.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Yet again, you've completely failed to understand what's going on, CARL.

Rasmussen released the Senate side of a Senate/Presidential poll, with cross-tabs that indicated Presidential support by Senate support.  Using the method I described above, these results correctly predicted McCain +4.  I made the mistake of not including the Presidential preferences of voters undecided in the Senate race, which incorrectly came out to McCain +1-3 (with rounding error leeway).  My conceptual methodology was fine; I just made an arithmetic error.

Calling this an "extrapolation" was incorrect, since it implies I was "assuming" something based on trends or arbitrary allocations.  I was just extracting results that already existed in the poll.

As for:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Where did this BS come from?  I've never said that.  I was using gender as an example of what I'll call a "full-sample subsample set" (FSSS)*, and I haven't even mentioned the Rasmussen national poll.

I really do encourage you to contact the Vorlon, Sam Spade, or any other poll-savvy poster (or one with remotely competent math knowledge), to explain to you that there's nothing wrong with what I did.  The only source of non-human error would be rounding error.

* - Something like male + female, or Begich + Stevens + Undecided, that adds up to 100% of the sample.

First, my apologies on one respect, i.e. I have never seen a pollster release the Senate side of a poll prior to the Presidential side.

It appeared to me that you were projecting from the existing national poll.  Your use of fake numbers and assumptions made what you are now asserting very unclear.

Second, there is still a minor problem, i.e. the hidden assumption that those voting in the Presidential election are the same as those voting in the Senate election.

While the "roll-off" typically is modest (1 to 2%), it can be substantial (watch what happens in Montana this year).

[Aizen]

CARLHAYDEN, shut the hell up

[Alcon]

First, my apologies on one respect, i.e. I have never seen a pollster release the Senate side of a poll prior to the Presidential side.

Your insanely limited semi-apology is accepted.

It appeared to me that you were projecting from the existing national poll.  Your use of fake numbers and assumptions made what you are now asserting very unclear.

Second, there is still a minor problem, i.e. the hidden assumption that those voting in the Presidential election are the same as those voting in the Senate election.

While the "roll-off" typically is modest (1 to 2%), it can be substantial (watch what happens in Montana this year).

It was not unclear.  I explained it four or five times, and you repeatedly misunderstood even the basics of what I was doing, while being snotty about it.

The sample sizes for the Senate and Presidential were the same.  And even if they were different, I'd be producing a poll with a few different respondents, but the same sample size and margin of error.  If there are 500 Presidential responses, it's just as valid as a poll, even if it isn't officially released as the Presidential poll.

Not that it matters; I'm pretty sure that Rasmussen either discards respondents who refuse any answers, or combines these into Undecided or Other -- hence why all of their polls are sample size n=500, even in the Presidential cross-tab of the Senate poll.

I'm going to assume, by "fake numbers and assumptions," you meant "clearly-labeled examples that I didn't understand."  Let me point out that I never mentioned the Rasmussen national poll, and clearly stated what I actually used.  So, you're the only one here that made incorrect extrapolations and fake assumptions.

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday June 24, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Currently, Obama wins the vote from 80% of Democrats while McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans. The two contenders are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. However, one of the key stats in the race remains the potential for volatility in a race with two little known candidates—32% of voters are either uncommitted at this time or could change their mind before Election Day. Thirty-six percent (36%) say they are certain to vote for Obama while 32% are that certain of their support for McCain.

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)

[Kalimantan]

CARLHAYDEN, are you really this thick or just taking the piss?

[King]

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 45%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, -1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 45%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Just 22% now say the McCain is too old to be President, down from 30% who held that view earlier. Forty-one percent (41%) continue to believe that Obama is too inexperienced.

Currently, Obama wins the vote from 81% of Democrats while McCain is supported by 84% of Republicans and holds a three-point edge among unaffiliated voters. The two contenders are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. However, one of the key stats in the race remains the potential for volatility in a race with two little known candidates—30% of voters are either uncommitted at this time or could change their mind before Election Day. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say they are certain to vote for Obama while 33% are that certain of their support for McCain.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, June 26, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Eraserhead]

Thursday, June 26, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

What an uneventful day!

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, June 27, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 40% / 45%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind. Thirty-three percent (33%) are just as certain they will vote for McCain. Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans are certain they will vote for McCain and 68% of Democrats say they same about Obama. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 30% are certain to vote for McCain, 25% for Obama and 45% say they could change their mind before Election Day. Part of the reason for this extraordinary fluidity is that the candidates are relatively unknown. Another factor is that the issue array is not as settled as in recent elections.

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, June 28, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Tender Branson]

Sunday June 29, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, June 30, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Gustaf]

Well, congratulations Alcon. I think your point actually ended up getting through.

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, -1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 24% say national security issues are their highest priority. Obama leads 61% to 33% among those who focus on the economy while McCain leads 62% to 34% among national security voters. Obama also leads among the 11% who see domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care as most important. McCain leads among the 9% who say fiscal issues are tops and among the 6% whose primary interest is in cultural issues

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)
McCain: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+1, -1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, July 3, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Due to the Fourth of July holiday weekend, the Presidential Tracking Poll will not be updated again until Monday. However, other polling data will be released each day over the weekend, including additional demographic data on the Presidential race.

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, 5 July, 2008

An analysis of Rasmussen Reports data from 15,000 telephone interviews shows that libertarian voters favor Obama over McCain.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of the nation’s voters are both fiscally and socially conservative. Twenty percent (20%) are both fiscally and socially moderate. Fifteen percent (15%) of all voters are fiscally moderate and socially liberal. Two groups of voters each include 10% of the voting population—those who are fiscally conservative and socially moderate along with those who are fiscally moderate and socially conservative. Nine percent (9%) are fiscally and socially liberal.

Fiscally conservative / Socially conservative (24%): Obama 13%; McCain 82%

Fiscally moderate / Socially moderate (20%): Obama 59%; McCain 30%

Fiscally moderate / Socially liberal (15%): Obama 80%; McCain 13%

Fiscally conservative / Socially moderate (10%): Obama 25%; McCain 67%

Fiscally moderate / Socially conservative (10%): Obama 40%; McCain 51%

Fiscally liberal / Socially liberal (9%): Obama 91%; McCain 6%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/libertarians_favor_obama_and_other_looks_at_election_2008

Dave

[RJ]

Fiscally conservative / Socially conservative (24%): Obama 13%; McCain 82%

Fiscally conservative / Socially moderate (10%): Obama 25%; McCain 67%

With the mess the Republicans have made of the budget and national debt in the last 28 years, how on Earth can fiscal conservatives be so pro McCain???

[Eraserhead]

Populists/Social facists favor McCain and libertarians and moderates favor Obama.

[Tender Branson]

07/07/2008:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 44%

Obama leads by twelve percentage points among women, but trails by three among men. Among White Women, McCain leads by just four percentage points. That’s a much smaller advantage among White Women than George W. Bush enjoyed four years ago.

Overall, McCain leads by nine among White Voters. Obama leads 94% to 3% among African-American voters and 61% to 30% among Hispanic voters.

Obama - 56% favorable, 42% unfavorable
McCain - 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

07/07/2008:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 44%

Obama leads by twelve percentage points among women, but trails by three among men. Among White Women, McCain leads by just four percentage points. That’s a much smaller advantage among White Women than George W. Bush enjoyed four years ago.

Overall, McCain leads by nine among White Voters. Obama leads 94% to 3% among African-American voters and 61% to 30% among Hispanic voters.

Obama - 56% favorable, 42% unfavorable
McCain - 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable

The key numbers
Women +12%
Men only -3%
AA +89%
Hispanics +31%

- if this holds out Obama will do well. These are the groups Obama needs to outperform Kerry in markedly to win.

[kevinatcausa]

Indeed.  If Obama manages to outperform Kerry markedly in the both the critical group of "Women" and that of "Men Only", I like his chances against McCain

[Tender Branson]

July 8, 2008:

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

Obama - 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain - 53% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

In other news:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has done a far more effective job than Republican John McCain in recent weeks moving himself to the middle in the minds of voters, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys.

During the Primary campaign season, Obama was viewed as politically liberal by an ever-increasing number of voters that grew to 67% by early June. However, since clinching the nomination, he has reversed that trend and is now seen as liberal by only 56%.

Twenty-two percent (22%) characterize the Democrat as Very Liberal, down from 36% early last month.

McCain similarly has been seen as politically conservative by more and more voters, also hitting 67% a month ago, but he is still viewed that way by 66%. While19% saw him as Very Conservative in early June, that figure now has risen to 28%.

The Democratic candidate is viewed as a political moderate by 27%, up from 22% three weeks earlier, while McCain is seen as a moderate by 23%, down from 26% in the survey at the beginning of June.