Can Trump win AZ without Maricopa county? (user search)
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  Can Trump win AZ without Maricopa county? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Can Trump win AZ without Maricopa county?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Maricopa will trend right in 2020, so it doesn't matter.
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 39

Author Topic: Can Trump win AZ without Maricopa county?  (Read 1122 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,667
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« on: December 31, 2016, 10:08:11 PM »



Phoenix itself is too much like socal. The rest of the state is like rural Wyoming and Colorado.


It's definitely nothing like Wyoming,  there's some similarities to Colorado.   It has way more Native Americans then either one for starters, and much more of a military presence too.   

Wyoming is also almost exclusively rural, while Arizona does have a few smaller cities (Flagstaff, Yuma, etc).   
Those towns are the sizes of the biggest towns in Wyoming. Its a good comparison. Wyoming has a lot of natives. Colorado has a lot of Airmen.

It would be very hard for Trump to win wo Mariicopa.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,667
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« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2017, 08:55:05 AM »
« Edited: January 01, 2017, 08:59:48 AM by Spicy Purrito »



Phoenix itself is too much like socal. The rest of the state is like rural Wyoming and Colorado.


It's definitely nothing like Wyoming,  there's some similarities to Colorado.   It has way more Native Americans then either one for starters, and much more of a military presence too.  

Wyoming is also almost exclusively rural, while Arizona does have a few smaller cities (Flagstaff, Yuma, etc).  
Things that Arizona and Wyoming that are similar:

- Ranchers, cowboys, western culture and some agriculture.
- Both big states
- Rural areas are conservative
- Have similar medium sized cities. Cheyenne, Casper are a lot like Prescott and Prescott Valley in population. Laramie Wyoming is a smaller version of Flagstaff.

Things that Arizona and Wyoming that are NOT similar:

- Arizona has two large metropolitan area, Phoenix and Tucson. Wyoming does not have either.
- Arizona has more Native Americans and Latinos.
- Wyoming has more natural resource jobs in oil fields and mining


That is an interesting question. What is making Arizona more conservative than the states around it. It's not  a dependence on the EPA letting them do whatever they want.

My guess is that its more like Florida- old people threatened by changed to the point they risk their social security. And Arizona is part of the Jello Belt. I heard they are Mormons there than Non-Fundamentalist Protestants...
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,667
United States


« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2017, 02:16:03 PM »

Not especially likely. If you want to be technical and say the D only wins it by a few thousand votes, then yes, but I think if that happens, Yuma and Pima would also swing just enough with Maricopa to flip the state.

That is probably why there are areas that will always be a bellwhether even if they lean a certain way.
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