Think about what McCain pulled off...

[Reaganfan]

After McCain's downfall, I found myself an outspoken supporter...but I thought he no longer had a chance. On YouTube, I was watching an interview back from November when McCain was speaking about his campaign and what they needed to do. He said, "We have to win two of the first three, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina."

He achieved this goal, but could have never done it had it not been for Huckabee's rise in Iowa, and Thompson's strength in South Carolina.

Think about the significance of last night. John McCain won South Carolina. The state that for decades has every Republican who has won it go on to the nomination. The state where "dirty politics" ended McCain's hopes of being President in 2000.

Will McCain go all the way? I sure hope so....and things look good.

[Alcon]

Think about the significance of last night. John McCain won South Carolina. The state that for decades has every Republican who has won it go on to the nomination. The state where "dirty politics" ended McCain's hopes of being President in 2000.

Political junkies need to step back and realize that most people, not even most caucus voters, care about this sort of thing that much.

But McCain managed a few things:

1. Effectively killed off every campaign but Romney's, while Giuliani's languishes separately.
2. Got more good news coverage.
3. Continued his momentum.

But let's not overstate the importance of things like this being the state that ended his 2000 campaign...most people just don't care.

[8 out of 11 is not deserved]

Clearly Mac is back...

The Republican party needs to nominate somebody who can expand the base outside of  just the "Bush" states.  Primarily appealing to just the evangelicals will no longer work. That's Rudy, Mac, or Romney.  Huckabee or Thompson would be a disaster. 

I thought Mac was politically dead.  He is our best chance to win the presidency if the conservatives will get behind him.  We need Obama to lose next weekend and wakeup the republican party.  The democrats will choose Hillary.  Mac is our best shot at stopping this.   

Wake up Republicans.....get behind Mac....he brings us the independent votes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Think about the significance of last night. John McCain won South Carolina. The state that for decades has every Republican who has won it go on to the nomination. The state where "dirty politics" ended McCain's hopes of being President in 2000.

Political junkies need to step back and realize that most people, not even most caucus voters, care about this sort of thing that much.

But McCain managed a few things:

1. Effectively killed off every campaign but Romney's, while Giuliani's languishes separately.
2. Got more good news coverage.
3. Continued his momentum.

But let's not overstate the importance of things like this being the state that ended his 2000 campaign...most people just don't care.

Yes. This is similar to the "neighboring state advantage" crap that needs to be brought to a rest as well.

[J. J.]

I though he was dead, but I have never put too much stock in Iowa.  Except for Michigan (Romney's home state), McCain has won those states he has contested.

Romney has lost two states he contested, and Huckabee has lost one and won one; the one Huckabee lost should have been one of his stronger states. 

Since 1972, NH's neighbors have done well, generally, in that state.  Though weak, Muskie (ME) won (1972), Dukakis (1988), Kerry (2004) (both MA).  The losses were Kennedy (MA- 1980), Dean (2004-2004, VT, to Kerry), and Romney (MA-2008).  Of the losers, NONE went on to be the nominee; it does not look good for Romney.

Right now, the only thing that stands between McCain and the nomination is Florida and Rudy Giuliani.

[TomC]

Right now, the only thing that stands between McCain and the nomination is Florida and Rudy Giuliani.

No, if Thompson drops out, McCain has to keep Fred's evangelical vote from going to Huckabee. He certainly needs to wath Romney, who has after all, won three states to McCain's two. And most importantly, McCain needs money.

McCain's in better shape than he was pre-NH, but it is certainly not as simple as knocking off the guy coming in 6th in most contests.

[TomC]

And McCain needs to work on his economic empathy. That part of his victory speech last night sounded at best perfunctory and possibly a little insincere.

[J. J.]

Right now, the only thing that stands between McCain and the nomination is Florida and Rudy Giuliani.

No, if Thompson drops out, McCain has to keep Fred's evangelical vote from going to Huckabee. He certainly needs to wath Romney, who has after all, won three states to McCain's two. And most importantly, McCain needs money.

McCain's in better shape than he was pre-NH, but it is certainly not as simple as knocking off the guy coming in 6th in most contests.

Money won't be an issue if McCain wins Florida.  Momentum, right there, for once, is more important than money.

[TomC]

Right now, the only thing that stands between McCain and the nomination is Florida and Rudy Giuliani.

No, if Thompson drops out, McCain has to keep Fred's evangelical vote from going to Huckabee. He certainly needs to wath Romney, who has after all, won three states to McCain's two. And most importantly, McCain needs money.

McCain's in better shape than he was pre-NH, but it is certainly not as simple as knocking off the guy coming in 6th in most contests.

Money won't be an issue if McCain wins Florida.  Momentum, right there, for once, is more important than money.

I agree that it's more important. My point is that you are oversimplifying the obstacles to McCain's nomination. I believe he'll get it, but it is far from over.

[Keystone Phil]

It is amazing how his campaign came back to life. Almost everyone thought he was finished last fall. Hats off to everyone who still believed in him. I'm thrilled that I'm rooting for him again over having to choose between Rudy and Romney.

[Meeker]

It's remarkable has his campaign managed to bring itself back from near flat lining over the summer, I'll give you that.

However, the South Carolina victory really isn't that amazing. He received 90,000 fewer votes than he did in 2000, and quite frankly had either Thompson or Romney not been in the race, Huckabee probably would've won. The only reason he won this time is that unlike in 2000 the conservative vote was split up enough to allow him to squeeze a victory in.

Keep in mind, 67% of South Carolina Republicans did not want John McCain to be the Republican nominee. Not exactly a stunning endorsement from the state. 

[Reluctant Republican]

I really am happy for McCain and I confess, somewhat surprised he pulled this off, I thought SC would go for Huckabee. But you know, I’ve always had a special place in my heart for McCain. Even when I was supporting Dr. Paul and thought the other Republicans were evil corporatist warmongers, I always had a soft spot in my heart for McCain, and I take heart from these results. Putting on my “hack” hat for a moment, it warms my heart to see that both Huckabee  and McCain, both of whom don’t have much money for much of their campaigns, can still have such a big impact on the race. I think even many Democrats will acknowledge that money played a far greater role in determining the frontrunners in their race, at least this time around.

But yeah, it looks good that McCain will be the nominee, considering that him or Romney[!] would be the only Republicans I could really consider supporting in the general. So it looks like the Republicans have one more vote in their favor. Try not to get too overjoyed guys, ha.

[Padfoot]

I'm semi-impressed that he beat Huckabee.  Its also impressive that McCain has been able to resurrect his campaign after so many declared it dead over the summer.  However, just as much of the credit for those victories goes toward the general confusion on the Republican side as it does to McCain.  So, I'm not ready to bow down to McCain's awesome strategy or campaigning prowess.  If you consider him the current front runner its only by a hair.  Romney is still leading in delegates and cash.  McCain has far from clinched this thing and he could still go down in flames at any moment.  Right now the two biggest things he will need to overcome are the delusion Giuliani supporters in FL as well as Romney's ability to use his cash to compete in a wide range of media markets come Feb 5th.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The political animal in me is deeply impressed.

However, he owes a great deal to Huckabee and Giuliani - Huckabee's viability sucking up conservatives and Giuliani's implosion.

I do wonder what kind of position he'll be in should he get the nomination, whether his attempts to suck up to the Christian-right will come back to haunt him also the South Carolina comments about his "strong pro-life record" may hurt him among women - given the liklihood that the female vote will shift back hard to the Dems - he can barely afford to lose any more.

[Reaganfan]

The political animal in me is deeply impressed.

However, he owes a great deal to Huckabee and Giuliani - Huckabee's viability sucking up conservatives and Giuliani's implosion.

I do wonder what kind of position he'll be in should he get the nomination, whether his attempts to suck up to the Christian-right will come back to haunt him also the South Carolina comments about his "strong pro-life record" may hurt him among women - given the liklihood that the female vote will shift back hard to the Dems - he can barely afford to lose any more.

You are acting as if every women in the country is pro-choice, that is strongly not the case.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The political animal in me is deeply impressed.

However, he owes a great deal to Huckabee and Giuliani - Huckabee's viability sucking up conservatives and Giuliani's implosion.

I do wonder what kind of position he'll be in should he get the nomination, whether his attempts to suck up to the Christian-right will come back to haunt him also the South Carolina comments about his "strong pro-life record" may hurt him among women - given the liklihood that the female vote will shift back hard to the Dems - he can barely afford to lose any more.

You are acting as if every women in the country is pro-choice, that is strongly not the case.

Women are, as a majority, pro-choice.

[Padfoot]

The political animal in me is deeply impressed.

However, he owes a great deal to Huckabee and Giuliani - Huckabee's viability sucking up conservatives and Giuliani's implosion.

I do wonder what kind of position he'll be in should he get the nomination, whether his attempts to suck up to the Christian-right will come back to haunt him also the South Carolina comments about his "strong pro-life record" may hurt him among women - given the liklihood that the female vote will shift back hard to the Dems - he can barely afford to lose any more.

You are acting as if every women in the country is pro-choice, that is strongly not the case.

Women are, as a majority, pro-choice.

and they also make up a majority of the electorate at least when it comes to voter participation.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The political animal in me is deeply impressed.

However, he owes a great deal to Huckabee and Giuliani - Huckabee's viability sucking up conservatives and Giuliani's implosion.

I do wonder what kind of position he'll be in should he get the nomination, whether his attempts to suck up to the Christian-right will come back to haunt him also the South Carolina comments about his "strong pro-life record" may hurt him among women - given the liklihood that the female vote will shift back hard to the Dems - he can barely afford to lose any more.

You are acting as if every women in the country is pro-choice, that is strongly not the case.

Women are, as a majority, pro-choice.

and they also make up a majority of the electorate at least when it comes to voter participation.

Yep 54-46.

[Nym90]

McCain has still not proven he has expanded his support above and beyond what he had in 2000. It'll be interesting to see if he can do that in the races ahead.

Yes, beating Huckabee in South Carolina is impressive (though far less than it would've been if Thompson weren't in the race). But the fact that he still doesn't do well with the party base has to be a bit concerning.

McCain is very lucky that Romney is a Mormon; if it weren't for this one fact, he likely would've been the Religious Right candidate in this race, and would've won the nomination with that support combined with his backing from the business community. He still could win it on a war of attrition since he has more money than McCain.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Two major things helped John McCain

1. The establishment candidate: It's his turn
2. The media loves him for being such a media whore

[Smid]

McCain didn't win SC - Thompson effectively gifted it to him by splitting the conservative vote.

That said, his win does push up his prospects in Florida, and with a win in Florida, he'll pick up in the north-east (the latest polls I've seen have him ahead in Pennsylvania and New Jersey and trailing Giuliani by just three points in NY). If Giuliani bows out, McCain will pick up his vote.

I guess what I'm suggesting is it doesn't matter how or why McCain won South Carolina - the fact that he won it still gives him delegates at Convention and still gives him momentum in the primaries still to come.

[Lief 🗽]

As others have said, McCain didn't do anything remarkable: he lost a good chunk of the support he had in 2000, and only barely beat an underfunded extremist because his good friend and former supporter was splitting the conservative vote.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

As others have said, McCain didn't do anything remarkable: he lost a good chunk of the support he had in 2000, and only barely beat an underfunded extremist because his good friend and former supporter was splitting the conservative vote.

That doesn't change the bandwagon effect.

[Smid]

Exactly - McCain didn't do anything remarkable - but it's still going to give him a boost.

[opebo]

I'm not that impressed with McCain.  He's just benefiting from the incredible awfulness (even to Republicans) of the rest of the field.  The best of a bad lot, but not well liked at all.  I do think his tin ear on economics will be his biggest problem in the general, followed by his poor speaking/campaigning ability.