Australia - 7 September 2013

[morgieb]

Ironically I reckon Mal has a better chance of becoming leader in government rather than in opposition.

Meanwhile, check out this http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-28/vote-compass-map-battlelines-seats-at-odds/4909772.

Interesting that for about 90% of the left-wing questions, my electorate finishes in the Top 10. The electorates that do seem very similar.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

One of them is mine!!

[morgieb]

One of them is mine!!

They're all commies and hippies down in Canberra

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://youtu.be/TB1Ev85ASBg

Team Rudd clearly thought this one of his best moments... and I think it was.

[RogueBeaver]

For some reason there are still leaks about how Gillard might've been better. In what universe is losing 10-20 seats worse than losing 40?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

20? Lol... moving on.

It's pretty stupid - you want to absolve yourself of blame in case of defeat....  probably best to wait. I think this election is going to end up much closer in the end than the polls are currently expecting. Considering they were destined for 3-4 terms in opposition ... a winnable position for 2016 is 1000x better.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oh and PVO was pretty repulsive tonight - he said that Ed Husic was 'bitching and moaning' ... while Husic was there... totally unprofessional.

[RogueBeaver]

Won't even make it that far since there'll almost certainly be an early DD if Abbott wins. As for PVO, I'd only have a problem if he used that expression about a female guest.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Saying it when the parliamentarian is there really was unprofessional, especially when said with such petulance, I think it's basic manners... maybe that's just me.

If he goes to a DD - he'll get punished. There's almost ALWAYS a swing against whomever calls it. I done expect his majority to be big enough to risk it. If its the carbon price ... maybe, but considering that the PPL is not that popular, it would take massive balls to go to a DD on that.

Hmmm - that's a good line, 'vote for Abbott, vote for a double-dissolution until he gets what he wants'

[RogueBeaver]

How about zeroing out the rate through a regular budget bill, or does it have to be done through separate legislation?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How about zeroing out the rate through a regular budget bill, or does it have to be done through separate legislation?

The price and rate of increase is legislated, so he'd have to amend the existing legislation. Xenophon could help as he was opposed to the price, but he'll still expect some form of mechanism.

[RogueBeaver]

Thanks for explaining that. Now I'm very convinced of a DD since a de facto (w/Right microparties) or de jure Senate majority is required for repeal.

Re PVO/Husic: All settled over drinks, apparently.

[Platypus]

Ironically I reckon Mal has a better chance of becoming leader in government rather than in opposition.

Meanwhile, check out this http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-28/vote-compass-map-battlelines-seats-at-odds/4909772.

Interesting that for about 90% of the left-wing questions, my electorate finishes in the Top 10. The electorates that do seem very similar.

Melbourne Ports make the lefty ten on the settlement, republic, foreign aid, turn back the boats, abortion access, more immigrants, uni funding, climate change, defence spending, marriage rights, health insurance rebates, non-govt schools (the state split on that is delicious), euthanasia, indigenous recognition, carbon pricing, and stimulus spending.

On the right-wing side for paid parental leave equal pay.

Not sure where it lies politically, but also on the list for least favourable to restricting foreign purchase of agricultural land, and on restricting 457s.

Not on either list for car funding, business regulation, mining tax, live animal exports, affirmative action for women, NBN pricing, CSG, Trade Union power, and workplace protections.

I think that's pretty much exactly how a proper latte liberal would side, really - left of everything except the one that means they get less money for pooing out a kid, regulation, unions, and not sure what they're talking about with the farms but it sounds kinda racist so I better oppose it.

The fact that the Liberals are running a reasonably strong campaign in the seat shows just how lacking Danby is in local support. The seat ought to be as safe as houses, and while Labor will win it, it won't be as comfortable as it ought to be.

[Platypus]

Spent the early hours muddling around with this:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/senate-calculator/

With entirely reasonable figures, ended up with NSW electing 2 Coalition, 2 Labor, 1 Green, and.... 1 Liberal Democrat.

The ACT has... Kate Ellis and.... Simon Sheikh

For Victoria, Labor and the Liberals both get two over the line, and then a loooong count as the Motoring Enthusiasts rise, and rise, and rise, and rise, and rise from 0.3% of the vote to the fifth senate spot. Greens edge out Labor for the 6th.

I don;t know how much faith, if any, to put into this

[morgieb]

Yeah, I've noticed a lot of weird stuff about calculations in the Senate.

But perhaps that's because of the amount of parties running.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

... where was Husic in this picture?

Oh and my political judgement is a DD on climate change (which is what it would end up being) would be a very very risky call.

Consider that only 1/3 of DDs in the past end up with the Government in a stronger position... 1951 & 1987 (but the advantage to the Government was so small they didn't proceed in 1987)... it's not a bet I'd be prepared to make.

Again, while Tony is claiming this election as a referendum on the carbon tax, the degree of public feeling on this has dwindled. On issues of climate change and the environment, the ALP is a clear leader and the Vote Compass (albeit not as scientific as it claims) shows near 60% want more or much more done on climate change.

I think he'd regret it.

[RogueBeaver]

More PVO: an excellent column on econodry reform, intra-Liberal dynamic and some historical background. Just what I was looking for.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've been fiddling with the Senate calculator for NSW... and I have Sinodinos being elected #6, on the back of Greens preferences... JUST pipping Pauline Hanson.

ACT... Sheikh could plausibly win, on both ALP and by my reckoning, Sex Party preferences...

[RogueBeaver]

I won't be able to watch live next Saturday, since polls close at 0400 EST. Not that I'm expecting any surprises, but there are few things I enjoy more than watching a live result.

Senate: So doesn't seem like Hanson has a shot. Thank God.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Current prediction...

IND ---> LNP
- Lyne, NSW
- New England, NSW
- Dobell, NSW
- Fisher (barely), QLD

ALP ---> LNP
- Lindsay, NSW
- Banks, NSW
- Reid, NSW
- Corrangamite, VIC
- Deakin, VIC
- Bass, TAS
- Braddon, TAS

LNP ---> ALP
- Brisbane, QLD
- Forde, QLD
- Herbert, QLD
- Hasluck, WA

GRN ---> ALP
- Melbourne, VIC

... yes, I think the ALP primary in VIC is recovering enough to think that Bandt won't survive.

So....

LNP: 79 (net gain of 6)
ALP: 69 (net loss of 2)
Ind: 1 (net loss of 4)
KAP: 1 (no change)
GRN: 0 (net loss of 1)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Also... seats to watch...

- Macquarie
- Bennelong
- Robertson
- Greenway (duh)
- Barton
- Dawson
- Longman
- Solomon
- Hindmarsh
- Indi
- New England (there's a CHANCE that Flustermuffin Joyce might have to go to preferences)
- Brand
- Swan

[Platypus]

That's essentially my pre-election prediction

[Smid]

Antony Green discusses the possibility of Pauline Hanson defeating Arthur Sinodinos. Last week, he also wrote on his blog about the possibility of the First Nations Party defeating Labor in the Northern Territory in the Senate.

There have previously been discussions about a threshold to remain in the Senate count.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

From a purely academic perspective... the Senate is going to be fascinating.

[Platypus]

The simplest solution is probably requiring everyone to number all the boxes above the line, but it's still not exactly a simple solution.

Anyway, used his calculator for South Australia, and got 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, and then eventually Xenophon, before Sarah Hanson-Young from the Greens sneaks in over the No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics by about 20,000 votes at the very end.

It's hard to know what kind of percentages to give Palmer and Katter's parties, which makes a lot of the difference I think.

For the NT, 1 Labor, 1 Country Liberal.

WA, 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green, but Ludlam has to wait for full distribution.