Italy 2013: The official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Crazy election just became even crazier.

Bascially.

Not that much though. If 1 is a normal election, and 100 is the level of craziness of, say, 1994, this election went from 1000 to 1050 maybe.

This election is only as crazy as 1994 if Grillo wins (because, basically, that's what happened in 1994).

2013 is crazy in a different way than 1994, but not necessarily less (though I admit I was exaggerating a bit).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lewis, are you really supporting Rivoluzione Civile? They are basically a staler version of SEL, and contrary to SEL they would be a wasted vote for the left coalition (ergo, a vote for Berlusconi).

[Antonio the Sixth]

PD is (probably) going to win anyways, and I'm not one to easily forgive the extortion attempt of 2008. Big artificial centre-"left" parties can go hang unless they're really, really needed to prevent the so much worse.
Which obviously means I also doubt SEL's judgment and/or integrity.

1. This is Italy, so never EVER say "X is going to win anyways".
2. I of course fully share your contempt for PD, but they are still worth voting for considering the alternatives.
3. SEL's decision makes perfect sense, both in terms of electoral strategy (thresholds and all), and in terms of actual political influence (because being inside a governing coalition allows you to have leverage on policy, something RC won't have in any case).
4. Ingroia is such a boring person. He's basically the hybrid of a less crazy Grillo and a less inspiring/charismatic Vendola. And I can certify, he's really painful to listen to, worse than Bersani and not so much better than Monti.

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PD wants a French system (two-round single member), Renzi a little more emphatically so than Bersani, but both support it unequivocally. The Monti coalition says the current law sucks but hasn't said anything about what they want to do instead. My bet is that they'd love a "German" system (which would make it impossible for a coalition to rule alone). As for PdL, they have been very good at bullsh*tting about this for the past year or so, and what they would do is anyone's guess.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Maybe Berlusconi can hold PD-SEL *just* short of a Senate majority.

Is it really something to wish for? You know I'm not a big fan of "stability" for stability's sake, but Italy really desperately needs some.

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From what I've understood, he took on his own the decision to "step down into politics" ("scendere in politica", as we say following Berlusconi's word), and then a myriad of parties which were in electoral dire straits decided to make him their standard-bearer, probably for the sole reason that he was a new face.

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I haven't heard anything specific from SEL and RC, but I guess they'd by far prefer some PR of sorts, like the other smaller parties (for the same reasons PD supports single-member).

As for M5S, they officially don't want elections at all. They're all about "direct democracy", and will find a reason to grumble about whatever electoral reform is done.

[Antonio the Sixth]

they will find a reason to grumble about whatever electoral reform is done.

And they won't have to look hard, it'll be elephant-sized.

True, true, but they even whined about a decree that divided by four the number of citizen signatures needed to run a list for these elections (effectively making their life much easier).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tonight Berlusconi will be the guest at Santoro's show on La7.

I'm sure not gonna miss that one. There's gonna be blood.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Antonio, you know me, you know I'm on the left side of the Front de gauche here in France, but that I would never vote for the NPA, and besides I profoundly and utterly despise the PD. So I'll let you pick my vote : SEL or RC ? I would be leaning RC right now for just exactly the same reasons as Lewis (actually I was about to write a post pretty much like his own).

So what shall it be ? And justify it !

I can't really say much more than what I've already said to Lewis. There's one thing I must add, though: Vendola is a fascinating politician. It's a shame you don't know Italian, but anyone who does should look up for some of his speeches. They are absolutely beautiful. It's not just political posturing, beautiful promises and the usual stuff, there is something that there has not been in Western politics for a long while: thought. Vendola manages to eloquently combine the moving lyrism of his rhetoric with a deep ideological reflection about the fundamental roots of modern issues. He never appeals to the basic instincts of a crowd, never engages into easy (and effective) populism, but always tries to elevate the debate and speak to the mind of people. Honestly, there are not many politicians I have more respect for than Vendola. He might even be unique. My vote for SEL, whose platform is actually a tad too radical for my tastes, is above all a personal vote for Vendola (it's also a protest vote against the PD, of course).

I don't think Ingroia is a bad guy, but he's supported by a bunch of hacks like the Rifondazione guys, he brings nothing particularly new or interesting to the political stage, and, should I remind you, it's a spoiled vote for the left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Since you guys are discussing about which party you support, why don't you go and vote here? https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=167558.0

[Antonio the Sixth]

Setting aside from political stuff...

Best.
Show.
Ever!

The word "epic" is so often misused that it's important to point out when it is actually approriate. What happened was epic in every possible way. Drama, action, twists, tension, flame wars, fun... Every Italian-speaker should rush to go watch this, because it's more entertaining than the most epic action movie.


In terms of "who won", Berlusconi might have been as good as he wanted (and yes, I admit he was very skillful and energized), but nobody can compete with the determination and wit of Santoro and the intelligence and irony of Travaglio. Yes, Berlusconi was preety good, but not enough to twist the fundamental truth of what they said.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     

That's an interesting angle I hadn't thought of, yeah.

PD won't win an absolute majority anyway. There aren't many outcomes you can safely exclude, but you can probably exclude this one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     

That's an interesting angle I hadn't thought of, yeah.

PD won't win an absolute majority anyway. There aren't many outcomes you can safely exclude, but you can probably exclude this one.

Huh? If the coalition wins it gets 54% of the seats, even if it wins with 33% of the vote. If PD gets ~92% of the coalition votes, it gets a majority of the seats, even if that's on 30% of the vote, no?

92.9% of the coalition vote, yes (316/340). Assuming PD takes 35% (a very generous assumption - they're lucky if they get over 30), that would mean that all the other parties in the left coalition that are represented (probably, SEL plus one of PSI or CD) would have to win less than 2.66% of the vote. That's not going to happen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

'twould take a mass bleeding specifically from SEL to RC. So yeah, I guess you're right. Maybe if they magically switched lead personnel.

Glad to see you recognize that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That seems to be true according to polls...

I'd really like to see Monti displace Berlusconi, since he perfectly represents what honest, well-meaning and serious right-wing politician would be like. However, it's become pretty clear it's not going to happen. Italian right-wingers have been brainwashed for the last 20 years, and they'd follow Berlusconi everywhere even if he was found with 50 dead (and underage) boys.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Grillo got epically trolled with list symbols.


Official M5S symbol:



Symbol officially registered by a M5S dissident before the official M5S could register theirs:



And now he's threatening to boycott the election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Moderati Italiani in Rivoluzione

"Revolutionary moderates"...

...



Seriously?....



...like in, seriously?

Aaaaaaaand we have a winner for the silliest list name of the election!

[Antonio the Sixth]

I read it elsewhere as "Moderates in the Revolution" though it hit me at first as "Moderate Revolutionaries," too.

Yeah, though "in Rivoluzione" I'd say means something closer to "revolutioning", "in the process of a revolution", etc. It's quite closer to the idea.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.

Anyway, the most recent polls posted in the official polling archive (realized somewhere between the 5th and 9th) give:

- Left 39.8 - 38 - 38.5 - 40.3 - 34.9
- Right 23.1 - 27 - 30.7 - 24.4 - 24.9
- Monti 17.6 - 16 - 10.5 - 15.1 - 13.8

The left's lead ranges from 16.7 to 7.8, and averages 12.3. The Euromedia poll seems to be an outlier.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.

Or Left/Right/Monti/Clowns/Far Left

Like it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh for Christ's sake.

My reaction as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OH GOD, now there are talks of a "pact" between Monti and Bersani... Just what Berlusoni needed to come across as the "real alternative"...



HOW CAN THE ITALIAN LEFT BE SO FUCKING RETARDED?!?!?!? HOW?!?!?!?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What kind of pact?

Don't know for sure, something along the lines of a coalition agreement if nobody gets an absolute majority (something that would probably happen anyways, but which it's UTTERLY STUPID to talk about BEFORE the GODDAMN ELECTIONS).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bersani hits 40% in most recent poll (Piepoli) but Berlusconi up to 30%...

Italia. Bene Comune -  40%

Center-right -  30%

Con Monti per l'Italia -  10%

M5S -  10%

Rivoluzione Civile -  10%

Others -  2%

RC at 10%? This looks like a joke.

Also, the fact all coalitions are at exact tenths of support is pretty weird. Where do you get these numbers?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pathetic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lowest common denominator. But as LBJ said in another context, don't get in a pissing contest with a polecat.

Very true. I've always said Monti made a very stupid choice and would probably lose a lot by entering in the political playing field.

He's already lost a lot of his "integrity" advantage by promising the same tax cuts as everybody else despite having been the one who raised taxes to their current levels. Monti is a good person, but politics are making him lose a lot of the good he had.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, heard about this in tonight's TG. Seriously, have they lost it?

(I mean, Pannella has always been slightly crazy, but he seemed also very principled to me)