Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

NHK poll also has Abe Approval/Disapproval at 39(+2)/42(-1).  

This gives LDP an Aoki index of 71.8 (32.8+39).

Historically this sort of number meant defeat against a united non-JCP opposition and a marginal victory against a splintered one.  

In 2000 LDP-KP barely won a majority with a Aoki index of 50.4.  
In 2004 Koizumi barely won the Upper House election against an united non-JCP opposition led by DPJ with an Aoki index of 76.1
In 2007 Abe lost to a united non-JCP opposition led by DPJ with an Aoki index of 69.8
In 2010 DPJ lost the Upper House election against LDP-KP with an Aoki index of 68.8

These numbers does not bode well for LDP-KP whose path to significant victory only lies in the splintered nature of the HP-JCP and DCP vote base.  One wildcard is the DCP-JCP alliance and possible tactical voting between HP and DCP.

[jaichind]

Asahi poll for Tokyo holds grim news for HP.

It has LDP well ahead in 12 seats, KP well ahead in 1, LDP marginally ahead in 7 and LDP-Opposition neck-to-neck in 5.  I am pretty sure the 5 are 3 DCP and 2 HP.

For party support in Tokyo (not PR) it has

LDP     29
KP        4
HP        6
CDP      7
JCP       5

[jaichind]

Latest Mainichi projection

LDP over 300 by itself
HP at most 54 seats, at most 23 district seats of which 10 are quite competitive
CDP around 40 seats
KP will not keep 35 seats from 2014 for sure, will win 9 district seats
JRP hard to keep 14 seats today, LDP ahead in 8 Osaka seats (out of 19 Osaka seats 4 will go to KP, 1 will most likely go to CDP, 1 will go to pro-CDP independent, so if 8 are LDP so that leaves 5 for JRP)
JCP lose seats from 21 from 2014
SDP most likely 1 seat

Chart version of Mainichi projection



If you take their medium guess it comes out to

             District      PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          223         69      292             35.5%
KP               9         22        31             12.5%
JRP              5           6       11               5.5%
HP             17         31       48              17.5%
CDP           13         34       47              19.0%
SDP             1           1         2              1.5%
JCP              1         13       14               8.0%
Ind            20           0       20    most likely something like 4-5 pro-LDP and rest anti-LDP
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

Well, if LDP-KP can get to 48% in terms of PR vote and the HP and CDP remain divided in the district seats then this sort of result seems quit possible and in fact likely.

[jaichind]

Sankei's poll also showed that 40.5% would like to see a change in government, as opposed to 50.5% who would like to see the LDP stay in.

Also, wtf, how the hell is the CDP charging up so high, so quickly? Not even I would have said that would ever happened, and I would be a huge partisan hack when it comes to the CDP.

To be fair the question is not "change in government" but "LDP centered administration"  vs "non-LDP centered administration."  The difference is there seems to be a lot of LDP voters that are not so happy with Abe.  They would be for a LDP centered administration even while disapproving of Abe.   How they vote would also be decisive. 

As for CDP surge a lot of it came from JCP and SDP so the CDP vote increase is really cannibalization of the Left.  A couple of weeks ago JCP polling was surging as Left DP voters went their way.  Now CDP took that vote back and are now eating into marginal JCP support.

[jaichind]

FNN projection

LDP to get majority of 233 for sure.  Could get to its pre-election size (~290) if one adds in pro-LDP independents.  
HP in big trouble in Tokyo, will struggle to get to pre-election size of 57
CDP seat share to surge and will compete with HP for the position of largest opposition party
KP will struggle to get 34 seats it had before the election is called
JCP will struggle to get 21 seats it had before the election is called
JRP is in trouble in Osaka and will lose seats from the 14 it has before the election is called

Here is chart version



If you take the medium case it is

LDP     286
KP         33
NPD        1
JRP       10
HP        44
CDP      52
SDP        1
JCP       15
Ind       23   (4-5 are pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)



Back in 2014 they came out with


Which was vs final result

LDP    311   ->   290
KP       32   ->     35
PFG      2    ->       2
JIP      26    ->    41
DPJ     69   ->     73
PLP       2   ->       2
SDP      2   ->       2
JCP     15   ->     21
Ind       6   ->       9

So in 2014 Sankei overestimated LDP and underestimated the third pole party JIP.  That is one ray of hope for HP and JRP since they are third pole parties.  

[jaichind]

Early voting hits 3.86%, a record high

[jaichind]

Out of curiosity, what specifically makes the CDP to the left of the LDP or the HP? Obviously opposing constitutional revision and speaking about a more open society, but in terms of specific policy?

In theory also nuclear free Japan which in this case HP is also for but I think CDP is more hard-line on. Also on issue of security and civil liberties HP leans authoritarian and CDP is libertarian.   

[jaichind]

山口(Yamaguchi) poll on party support.  Abe is from this prefecture which has always been the most pro-LDP prefecture. 



LDP    51
KP       3
JRP      1
HP       6
CDP     5
SDP     1
JCP      3

[jaichind]

Out of curiosity, what specifically makes the CDP to the left of the LDP or the HP? Obviously opposing constitutional revision and speaking about a more open society, but in terms of specific policy?

In theory also nuclear free Japan which in this case HP is also for but I think CDP is more hard-line on. Also on issue of security and civil liberties HP leans authoritarian and CDP is libertarian.   

Ah, I see. But Education, Health Care, Taxes, etc. those kind of domestic issues are not concerns for the left as much, like they are in Western Europe and North America?

On these topics in Japan it is "we are all Social Democrats now."  Although sometimes Libertarian splinter Third Pole parties like YP (2009-2014) does come along once in a while to challenge this. 

[jaichind]

Former Tokyo governor and famous leader of the Japan Far Right 石原 慎太郎(Ishihara Shintara) surprisingly tweeted  praise for CDP founder and leader of the Japan Center-Left 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) for having political courage.  Of course Ishihara is an enemy of Koike who beat the LDP candidate in 2016 Tokyo governor race.   Ishihara's son and LDP MP 石原 伸晃(Ishihara Nobuteru) organized that race for the LDP candidate telling Koike not to run for Tokyo Governor.

Ishihara must be taking pleasure at Edano's CDP pulling down HP's electoral prospects, especially in Tokyo.

[jaichind]

Honest question: What are the chances of Abe not winning?

Depends on definition of winning.

If winning is LDP-KP majority at 233, then 0%.  If you exclude all the hack projections, my projection of LDP-KP at around 285 is pretty much the most negative for LDP-KP out there. 

If winning is LDP-KP getting enough seats for Abe to continue as PM which would be around 270 the chances are pretty much still near 0%

If winning is LDP-KP getting enough seats for Abe to win re-election as LDP leader in Sept 2018 which would be around 290 then I would have it at around 50/50 shot although rest of the Japanese political discourse has it around 10%

If winning is LDP-KP getting 2/3 majority of 312 then the current Japanese political discourse has it slightly less than 50/50

If winning is LDP-KP getting around the same ratio of seats as 2014 which would be around 320 then the current political discourse has it slightly greater than 50/50.

[jaichind]

Turnout details from NHK poll

Certain to vote + voted early

Total electorate:  61%
Non-Aligned: 48%
Pro-Ruling parties: 70%
Pro-Opposition parties: 77%

[jaichind]

Projections from political analysts 小林吉弥(Kobayashi Yoshiya) who has an extreme projection of LDP-KP under-performance and a CDP surge on the PR section and 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) who has a more mainstream projection.  



I was able to break down their projection using my method of grouping along with PR seats


For 小林吉弥(Kobayashi Yoshiya) he sees a CDP and JCP surge who tactically vote for HP district candidates to defeat LDP.  HP voters does not seem to reciprocate leading to an more muted result for CDP in the district seats.

              District     PR     Seats        Implied PR vote
LDP          179         65      244             33.0%
KP               9         23        32             13.0%
NPD             0           0         0               0.3%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              9           7       16                5.5%
HP             50         23        73              14.0%
CDP           12         36        48              20.0%
SDP             1           1         2                1.5%
JCP              1         21       22               12.0%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        9           0         9     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  12           0       12      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      0          0         0      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465



For 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) also sees CDP surging past HP int the PR section but has less tactical voting between CDP and HP voting blocs leading to a significant LDP-KP victory although just missing the 2/3 majority.  He also has JCP overperforming expectations.

             District     PR     Seats        Implied PR vote
LDP          211        64       275             32.5%
KP               8         24        32             13.5%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              7           7       16                5.5%
HP             18         28        46              16.5%
CDP           12         32        44              18.0%
SDP             1           1         2                1.5%
JCP              1         19       20               11.5%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)      10           0       10     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  14           0       14      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      0          0         0      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

[jaichind]

Turnout details from NHK poll

Certain to vote + voted early

Total electorate:  61%
Non-Aligned: 48%
Pro-Ruling parties: 70%
Pro-Opposition parties: 77%

That's... rather high.

Back in 2014 61% also claimed in the NHK poll that they are certain to vote.  Turnout was 52.7% partly because of a snowstorm. I think turnout will be higher this time even though there seems t be a hurricane coming.  The bad news for LDP is the hurricane seem to be hitting Southern Japan election day vs in 2014 the snowstorm seem to be hitting Northern Japan.

[jaichind]

Paddypower odds

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/world-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=4912714

They have 1/3 for HP to be the second largest party after LDP and 5/1 for CDP to be the second largest party after HP. 

With the recent CDP surge I think this is mis-priced.  While HP is more likely to emerge with more seats than CDP the gap might be that large.

[jaichind]

Average PR curve has CDP almost catching up and overtaking HP

[jaichind]

Latest ニコニコ (NicoNico) projection has LDP-KP going from just below 2/3 to just above 2/3.  NicoNico pretty much has the best projection record last few election cycles.



              District    PR     Seats      Implied PR vote
LDP          220        64       284             33.0%
KP               9         25        34             13.5%
JRP              5          7        12                5.5%
HP             18         28       46              16.5%
CDP           12         35       47              19.0%
SDP             1           0         1                1.0%
JCP              1         17       18              10.5%
Ind(LDP)      4           0         4      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(Oppn)  19           0       19      (ex-DP ex-LP or plus various anti-LDP elements)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

They mostly dialed back their JRP projection to be inline with other projections.   It also has CDP overtaking HP overall and especially in the PR section. 

They have LDP-KP PR at 46.5% with KP and JCP doing well so they must be expecting a lower turnout.  I insist turnout will be higher and that LDP-KP will be around 45% in PR and with better tactical voting in district seats will see LDP-KP with a lot less seats.

[jaichind]

Hurricane to hit Southern Japan on 10/22

[jaichind]

Turnout by age group since 1967



The 2014 turnout collapse is especially strong with the 30s and 40s age population.  Most of them are disillusioned marginal DPJ voters.

[jaichind]

Shikoku News Agency poll and projection (pretty much like all the others).  I think this is done in conjunction with Kyodo News. 

PR vote which given the CDP numbers seem like it is an older poll

LDP   34.7
KP      8.0
JRP     1.8
HP    14.7
CDP    6.7
SDP    1.9
JCP     3.2

Seat projections  

          low-medium-high
LDP    265～281～296
KP         26～32～37
NPD          0～0～1
JRP         7～13～20
HP         42～52～66
CDP       37～48～58
SDP          1～2～2
JCP       10～14～19
Ind        17～23～28  (4-5 pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)

It has LDP-KP at 313 seats, just over 2/3 majority.

[jaichind]

Isn't Okinawa usually quite anti-LDP though?

Yes, but it is small compared to rest of Southern Japan in terms of population.

[jaichind]

Last go2senkyo.com poll does show a shift toward LDP and CDP



PR vote  LDP and CDP increase while HP falls
LDP    ~37
KP       ~7
HP     ~13
CDP   ~20
JCP     ~7



District vote - clear swing toward LDP
LDP    ~42
HP      ~13
CDP    ~15
JCP      ~7



Hope for CDP   Yes/No  ~33/~45



Hope for HP   Yes/No    ~18/~60



Hope for HP (Tokyo)   ~22/~60



Abe approval 50(+4)/50(-4)

[jaichind]

Latest and last JX Tokyo poll



HP is falling further behind as CDP surges

LDP   30(+1)
KP       5(-1)
HP    16(-2)
CDP   23(+5)
JCP     8(+1)

With these numbers I suspect HP might get a total of zero seats in Tokyo FPTP district seats with CDP gaining at least 3-4 seats from DP's 1 last time.

[jaichind]

Tokyo News national projection



LDP    281
KP       34
NPD       1
JRP      15
HP       47
CDP     46
SDP       2
JCP      14
Ind      25  (4-5 pro-LDP rest anti-LDP)

The low JCP numbers seems to suggest high turnout but KP numbers are too good for that.  Most likely a low turnout election plus a bleeding of JCP support over to CDP.

[jaichind]

It is clear that Koike had totally bungled this election and most likely blown any chances she has in the medium and most likely term at becoming PM.  One again Abe timed the election as to eliminate his most dangerous rival before she becomes a threat.  Even if Abe loses his 2/3 majority it is worth it to kill of any chance of Koike becoming a national rival of Abe in 2018. 

Two factors hurt Koike.  The first one which is the timing of the election is not anything Koike could have done anything about.  The main problem here is that she is trapped.  The way to create a splash for HP is for her to take over as leader.  But that leaves open the criticism that she is abandoning the citizens of Tokyo. 

The other factor was something of Koike's own making.  When DP disbanded and asked to join HP en masse to run on the HP ticket Koike insisted on a litmus test on Constitutional reform and refused to admit anyone DP member that had leadership roles of DPJ/DP in the past.  What that is logical to create a brand for HP and go after the LDP Center-Right vote what she could have done was to make a deal with these DP members that she would not admit.  She could have said "we cannot admit you but, wink wink, you can run as an Independent and HP will run a candidate against you."   She did this for some DP members but did not for a large number of them forcing them to form and gather behind CDP which now is eating into HP's space.  HP lost both ways.  HP failed to win a significant amount of the LDP vote and lost the Center-Left and now Center space to CDP.