For Romney victories of each size:
Romney picks off both Ohio and Virginia and wins. He also takes Nevada due to enormous Mormon turnout, suburban whites abandoning Obama, and a poor housing market.
Romney wins all the major battlegrounds, but his EV victory looks smaller than his PV victory due to Obama holding on in Pennsylvania. New Mexico's massive Democratic trend since 2004 shows itself, and Obama holds there as well.
Romney wins every state that could reasonably be considered competitive except Minnesota, and notably wins a West Coast state for the first time in 24 years. Notably, Romney makes a late ad dump in California, hoping he can land a blow by gobbling up a large amount of suburban white support, but Obama holds there by about 6 points due to minority turnout.