BPS Latino voters in AZ, CA, NV - Biden +20, +22, +15

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1786033509993156907?s=46

[Rand]

What is BPS, Border Patrol Surveys? Are they polling migrants as they cross the border?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know this isn't a poll but the polls in NV and AZ are silly towards Trump +8/6

[kwabbit]

In 2020, CNN exits had Biden +24 in AZ, Biden +52 in CA, and Biden +26 in NV. Of course, precinct analysis would find a more Dem result, but that's not apples to apples.

[Vern]

Fair to say that Latino will shift to the right this coming election. The big question is, by how much.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Latinx aren't shifting right Trump isn't winning AZ by 6 and NV by 8 and NC by 10 all lies

Users don't think polls lie, they lied to us in 22 and 2016 with Hillary and red wave that was supposed to happen in 22

That's why we vote, ballots not vote on a computer

[GeorgiaModerate]

My gut feeling (not backed up by any data) is that this is consistent with Biden winning AZ but losing NV.

[SnowLabrador]

My gut feeling (not backed up by any data) is that this is consistent with Biden winning AZ but losing NV.

According to exit polls from 2020, Biden won Arizona Latinos by 24 points. If he's "only" leading with them by 20 this time, he needs to make a sizable improvement with white voters. If he doesn't, he's not winning Arizona.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

My gut feeling (not backed up by any data) is that this is consistent with Biden winning AZ but losing NV.

Same here. This feels like saying Biden would win GA but not FL in 2020, which turned out to be the right call. Even if Biden or Trump win both NV and AZ, I suspect NV will be to the right of AZ.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My gut feeling (not backed up by any data) is that this is consistent with Biden winning AZ but losing NV.

Same here. This feels like saying Biden would win GA but not FL in 2020, which turned out to be the right call. Even if Biden or Trump win both NV and AZ, I suspect NV will be to the right of AZ.

NV always have an R bias users need to know that

[Vern]

My gut feeling (not backed up by any data) is that this is consistent with Biden winning AZ but losing NV.

Same here. This feels like saying Biden would win GA but not FL in 2020, which turned out to be the right call. Even if Biden or Trump win both NV and AZ, I suspect NV will be to the right of AZ.

NV always have an R bias users need to know that

NV, AZ and GA will vote for Trump.

[Eraserhead]

Why are Latinos so lukewarm on Catholic Joe? Bernie whooped his ass among them while the 2020 primary was still competitive too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My gut feeling (not backed up by any data) is that this is consistent with Biden winning AZ but losing NV.

Same here. This feels like saying Biden would win GA but not FL in 2020, which turned out to be the right call. Even if Biden or Trump win both NV and AZ, I suspect NV will be to the right of AZ.

NV always have an R bias users need to know that

NV, AZ and GA will vote for Trump.

Yeah sure Lake, Masters, Walker and Laxalt agreed with you as always we still have to vote you Rs haven't won anything, as ai keep telling users thus

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will get some version of a 270 to 319 map and it's not over until we vote not polls, I would learn closer to 319 than 278, due to Early voting

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Why are Latinos so lukewarm on Catholic Joe? Bernie whooped his ass among them while the 2020 primary was still competitive too.

Latino numbers were highly pumped up 2008-2016. Obama was the first non-white candidate and ran as a populist so this probably gave him a slight boost. He was also on the younger side which helps him here as Latinos are younger on average.

Clinton hammered Trump hard on immigration in 2016 and so did very well, but this effect wore off as he became an incumbent.

We are seeing a return to the usual 90s/early2000s numbers among Latinos

[Kamala's side hoe]

Why are Latinos so lukewarm on Catholic Joe? Bernie whooped his ass among them while the 2020 primary was still competitive too.

Latino numbers were highly pumped up 2008-2016. Obama was the first non-white candidate and ran as a populist so this probably gave him a slight boost. He was also on the younger side which helps him here as Latinos are younger on average.

Clinton hammered Trump hard on immigration in 2016 and so did very well, but this effect wore off as he became an incumbent.

We are seeing a return to the usual 90s/early2000s numbers among Latinos

The Latino population has grown considerably as younger and naturalized voters have entered the electorate, and comprise a larger share of the D coalition than before.(Appreciate the meme stanning of OR Dems by the way, Mr. Non-Oregonian)

Hispanics as the new Irish: A historical analogy to help us understand the present moment.

Given all the hand-wringing about a “Great Replacement”, it’s astonishing how much of a non-event this has been. Texas is still a deep red state. Texas Hispanics still lean toward the Dems, but they shifted strongly toward Trump in 2020, and Republicans in the state still reliably get 40% of the Hispanic vote. Meanwhile, Texas’ culture, which always had very large Mexican influences, has not noticeably changed as a result of the influx.

This reinforces my thesis that the best historical analogy for Hispanic immigration to the U.S. is the great Irish immigration of the 1800s. The usual analogy we draw is to the Italians, but I think the Irish make a better model. First of all, Irish immigration, like immigration from Mexico and Central America — but unlike immigration from Italy — was very drawn-out over a long period of time:

Like Hispanics, Irish migrants were mostly working-class folks who came for mainly economic reasons — pressures from poverty back in Ireland, plus the great dream of making it in America. And like Hispanics, they provoked a sustained and ferocious pushback from nativists.

-snip-

[DrScholl]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

Trump's polling overall is rarely better than his 2020 results. I know that the question mark is if Democratic constituencies turn out less, but I think that's the bigger issue than Biden losing support.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

My gut feeling (not backed up by any data) is that this is consistent with Biden winning AZ but losing NV.

According to exit polls from 2020, Biden won Arizona Latinos by 24 points. If he's "only" leading with them by 20 this time, he needs to make a sizable improvement with white voters. If he doesn't, he's not winning Arizona.

I think Biden will improve quite a lot with white suburbanites in Arizona.
I do think he'll probably win Arizona but lose Nevada.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

[DrScholl]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

[DrScholl]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

[omar04]

That's a big shift in California-2020 exit polls showed Latinos were about 75% Biden to 25% Trump.