US House Redistricting: Arizona

[krazen1211]

Well, the City of Flagstaff is run by Dems.  THey turned the grid on its head.  Their gerry looks very nice though.  

The Hispanic CD in Tuscon Lewis doesn't give Giffords the time of day Lewis. She's F'ed with that map.

I've mapped it. The remainder of Pima is 50.4% McCain and just 48k short of a district - not enough to take in Sierra Vista. They did their homework.
Of course, that also means that the northern seat takes Cochise. Which adds up with the Colorado River district.
Heh, it's only fair. If R's can wetdream about 7-2, D's can wetdream about 4-4-1. Cause that's what all these Dem propositions amount to. Neither will get what he wants, of course.

The grid map, though, splits Pima 3 ways: The Hispanic district, the 1st district that contains a bulk of Pima and Cochise, and the heavy Mormon GOP district based in Gilbert that descends from above.

Any yanking of Yuma County whites out of CD-7 (or its successor) seems like a good thing, even if they go into an already too safe exurban district (current CD-2).

[krazen1211]

Well, the City of Flagstaff is run by Dems.  THey turned the grid on its head.  Their gerry looks very nice though.  

They just ignored it entirely and drew what they thought makes sense. It does make sense, too (after all, that's why it was drawn similarly last time), although the fact that what makes sense is good news for Ann Kirkpatrick cannot have escaped them.  (And of course, the northern two thirds of Mojave make just as much more sense as the remaining bit of Pinal... but are more Republican.)

Just noticed that Winslow is also in the lege seat they drew for themselves. Winslow is much the most marginal of the white towns in those two counties, and has a sizable Navajo presence.

Certainly in my view the great northern district makes some sense, at least to me. The lastest actual map posted by Vadzul does an even better job for the Rs though. The 80% Obama native precincts up north only add up to 100k and will be drowned out by the most GOP parts of Maricopa.

[krazen1211]

Well, the City of Flagstaff is run by Dems.  THey turned the grid on its head.  Their gerry looks very nice though.  

The Hispanic CD in Tuscon Lewis doesn't give Giffords the time of day Lewis. She's F'ed with that map. The blue is Obamaland.  This sucks more of it than I ever dreamed of doing.   That is what happens when you chop Yuma and so forth; it pushes AZ-02 east. Go east young man!

The Grijalva district (which is currently 57% Obama I believe) is going to push 61+% Obama at this rate with these changes.

The Pastor district is already well over 60% even if its not the awesome 66% pack.

[krazen1211]

Current registration in Arizona:

http://www.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/Active_Voter_Count.pdf

On that map, district 1, 2, 3, 6 all should be safe R. 5 is likely R based on registration matching the current CD-5, and their CD-9 somewhat resembles the current CD-1 in registration. Note that Apache Junction is in CD-9.

[krazen1211]

What the heck are they babbling about? That map is basically a dem gerrymander.

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http://www.azredistricting.org/maps/pubmaps/092911/cong-EB-v3a.kmz&hl=en&sll=34.161818,-111.928711&sspn=8.21418,17.53418&vpsrc=0&t=h&z=6

The orange district does not even pretend to be neutral.

[krazen1211]

What the heck are they babbling about? That map is basically a dem gerrymander.

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http://www.azredistricting.org/maps/pubmaps/092911/cong-EB-v3a.kmz&hl=en&sll=34.161818,-111.928711&sspn=8.21418,17.53418&vpsrc=0&t=h&z=6

The orange district does not even pretend to be neutral.

That's the map that was voted down. This is the map that was approved. The remaining 4 Maricopa County districts have yet to be drawn.

Ah. It was then misreported here.

http://tucsoncitizen.com/in-the-aggregate/2011/10/01/az-redistricting-maps-final/

[krazen1211]

What the heck are they babbling about? That map is basically a dem gerrymander.

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http://www.azredistricting.org/maps/pubmaps/092911/cong-EB-v3a.kmz&hl=en&sll=34.161818,-111.928711&sspn=8.21418,17.53418&vpsrc=0&t=h&z=6

The orange district does not even pretend to be neutral.

That's the map that was voted down. This is the map that was approved. The remaining 4 Maricopa County districts have yet to be drawn.

Both the maps look the same, except of course the Maricopa districts haven't been drawn. I doubt CD-2 is up to full population either.

I assume you are referring to the northwestern district. It isn't up to full population. There is some debate as to which parts of Maricopa to add to it to bring it up to population.

Maricopa and Pinal. For some reason, the Mcnulty map split Pinal county 5 ways. That's an Austin style butchering.

[krazen1211]

Following the grid, respecting jurisdictional lines, compactness and communities of interest, as modified by the VRA. If without degrading the former, one can make CD's more competitive, then go for it. It's all right in the statute. The chairwoman characterizes both the Hispanic CD on the border and the Tucson CD's as competitive. The Hispanic CD clearly is not, except for the weak incumbent, and as I say, pending more data, I suspect the Tucson CD is lean Dem. Of course in 2012, both may fall to the Pubbies. I suspect the Dems are headed towards something worse than what they endured in 2010, particularly where blacks are thin on the ground.

Districts like the current AZ-1, AZ-5, and AZ-8 have by definition already proven to be competitive over the last decade. The Democrats in that map sought to move all 3 to the left and make them noncompetitive.

[krazen1211]

Nah, the game with AZ-01 was to excise Prescott and the Colorado River area where all those rednecks gamble, and buzz the river in their stinkpots while drunk. The Hopi make up about 3 precincts, and Native Americans as a whole maybe 30,000 voters or something. That CD was gamed to death, and the Flagstaff city council Dems got just what they wanted. They probably came in their pants. And then this fixation with 3 border CD's.  The game there was to excise from Tuscon that little county Cochise, in the SE corner - contrary to the grid as well as the balance of the statutory metrics. That tipped that CD.

The 1st district is about 46% obama now, up from 44%, due to the swap of Cochise. Tolerable, I suppose. Same with AZ-8, as it takes special gerrymandering to flip that district. Neither are particularly unfair and Gosar should be ok in either. The growing areas in Pinal county are of course the GOP areas, although the district carefully avoids Apache Junction.

[krazen1211]

Which CD is AZ-08?  It is marked on the map, but I see no CD. I assume Tucson is AZ-02.  The Hispanic border CD is about 56-44 Obama or so, but missing about 55,000 voters in my map. We agree on the Tucson CD numbers, which can be quite precisely drawn. I just assume AZ-01 is pretty heavily Dem, but have not drawn it. It just has to be the way it is drawn it seems to me, but maybe I am missing something.

Pretty sure both of us are referring to the white Tucson district, ie, the successor to the current AZ-08 based on current numbering.

AZ-05 is whatever district has Tempe in it, which is about the only Dem area outside the Pastor district.

[krazen1211]

How does this map look? I stayed out of Mesa and Chandler, as well as Scottsdale. Did pick up Paradise valley to make things look nice, but could have just stayed in Phoenix as well. 50-48 Mccain. And the 3rd on my map becomes basically a Mesa-Scottsdale district. And the 9th is Gilbert-Chandler and areas of Pinal.

I also tried to pick up as much Hispanic territory in Tucson as possible without picking up white liberal areas that would make the pubbies happy. About 22,000 people, but probably about 52-53% VAP. I then went down I-10 with my Tucscon district into cochise. Obama still wins the district, but with only 188 votes. 49.4-49.4.

Much more reasonable. It seems a slightly better and cleaner look would be to move those areas of south phoenix into the Chandler/Gilbert district.

[krazen1211]

The Hispanics are complaining, again.

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/article_66b808fd-b973-5f82-a62a-08c0944b2310.html

[krazen1211]

The GOP got some very desirable changes.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/pubmaps/100311/Map_as_of_100211/Cong-Map_as_of_100211.pdf

The Green district is absurd though

[krazen1211]

The GOP got some very desirable changes.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/pubmaps/100311/Map_as_of_100211/Cong-Map_as_of_100211.pdf

The Green district is absurd though

The funny thing is that the Republicans on the Commission don't seem to think that those changes are very desirable. Mathis, Herrera, and McNulty voted yes, Stertz voted no, and Freeman abstained.

Well, the orange district still butchers municipalities.

The GOP should ask for the pieces of Chandler to be removed in exchange for more of Mesa.

[krazen1211]

The GOP got some very desirable changes.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/pubmaps/100311/Map_as_of_100211/Cong-Map_as_of_100211.pdf

The Green district is absurd though

The funny thing is that the Republicans on the Commission don't seem to think that those changes are very desirable. Mathis, Herrera, and McNulty voted yes, Stertz voted no, and Freeman abstained.

I am not sure the GOP got as much as Krazen assumed. The territory in Cochise added to the Tucson CD seems to have far more cattle than people, three heavily Pubbie albeit small precincts in Santa Cruz were excised, and LDS Stafford in Cochise isn't in it. Maybe I will draw it tonight and find out. It does seem however that about 5 heavily Dem precincts in Tucson were removed.

Yeah, looks like it. The Giffords district moved about a point to the right, and that is about it. The more of Pinal County in CD-1, though, the better; as that area will hopefully get the GOP spillover votes moving in from Maricopa and grow faster than the Natives.

5-4 is probably more likely than 6-3 so the Democrats probably net a district. 7-2 is of course very easy to draw with the trifecta but such is life.

[krazen1211]

Definitely not. That would have resulted in a 3-3-3 map, not 4-2-3 or 4-3-2 (whichever we define this thing as). This map seems to be suffering from "too many objectives" syndrome.

We are going to court!  And my team will probably lose. The end.

Probably, yeah. After all, it's on record from the last time round that showing a better way to fulfill the commission's official objectives is not enough.

As I said, the Dems maxed what they thought they could get away with, without taking on excessive legal risk, and maybe Mathis didn't want to make too obvious that she was in the tank for the Dems, given her little shredding incidents and the like. This map is a Dem hatchet job - and  very skillfully done.

Arizona is our Washington...a trifecta state saddled with a crappy commission.

[krazen1211]

Definitely not. That would have resulted in a 3-3-3 map, not 4-2-3 or 4-3-2 (whichever we define this thing as). This map seems to be suffering from "too many objectives" syndrome.

We are going to court!  And my team will probably lose. The end.

Probably, yeah. After all, it's on record from the last time round that showing a better way to fulfill the commission's official objectives is not enough.

As I said, the Dems maxed what they thought they could get away with, without taking on excessive legal risk, and maybe Mathis didn't want to make too obvious that she was in the tank for the Dems, given her little shredding incidents and the like. This map is a Dem hatchet job - and  very skillfully done.

Arizona is our Washington...a trifecta state saddled with a crappy commission.

The Pubs got a good deal out of Washington?

Relative to what a legislature would draw, probably. Seattle almost certainly doesn't stay intact as it historically has.

[krazen1211]

Arizona is our Washington...a trifecta state saddled with a crappy commission.

Well, yeah.

Washington is not decided... but it's pretty much decided that protecting all four Republicans will be the prime consideration.

(And yeah, Grijalva probably would have complained about the district I drew for him. Too little Tucson. Which would have knockon effects in the red district in Glendale probably. Still, there is no reason for a Dem gerry to concede four safe Republican districts in the state. If you're ready to draw competitive districts anyways.)

It's looking like WA Republicans will be getting a pretty great map, though...

Don't Democrats get another seat though?

With a trifecta I presume the GOP would be cut to 2 seats. At the minimum Reichert would be a goner.

[krazen1211]

I tried to do a better job for the GOP.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/1168/another-arizona-commission-map

[krazen1211]

Here comes the nuclear option!

http://azstarnet.com/article_52defe34-1fb5-5e96-96e9-290448ba49f6.html

The law empowers the governor to recommend the Senate remove any member of the commission who is not doing her or his job. And Mathis has come under fire from Republicans who charge she sides too much with the Democrats.

[krazen1211]

Republicans will do anything to win. Their mamas didn't teach them to play fair!

Stop complaining pubbies, just stop. If you had complained less, you would have got a better map before. Seriously, try to win a few swing seats. Morons.

Republicans should stop "complaining," and, start acting to remove her for the reasons stated above. In fact, they should have removed her the instant it became known her husband was active in the Democratic party and she failed to disclose that fact. Had she disclosed that fact in a timely manner, she ought to have removed for consideration for the "independent" seat at that point.

Probably. The GOP has a 2/3 majority and could easily kick Mathis off it they chose to, at least unless they draw proper seats.

[krazen1211]

Yes, the law does not say that after you meet the VRA, then gerrymander to make it "fair."

Effectively it does. Since it presents all the other criteria, which contradict each other to an extent, more or less as one blur, and "communities of interest" and "geographical features" are undefined and unmeasurable anyways, it effectively comes down to "pass the map that satisfies these criteria that has the most competitive districts".

Yeah... bring that law to Massachusetts and you're forced to draw a winnable district for Republicans. Since it can be done without doing too much violence to the map (not nearly as much as the current intra-democratic incumbent-protection-mander does, for instance).

Geographical features are reasonably defined in the proposition as city and county limits. The Michigan standards are of course quite reasonable checks on partisan gerrymandering.

A district consisting of Tempe, the Southern bit of Arizona, Chandler, and the Eastern Part of Mesa (2 municipal breaks rather than 4) comes in at 49.9% McCain. I linked one earlier. I can reasonably infer that the 9th district zigzagging gains them about 3 points.

[krazen1211]

Bottom line, Republicans just aren't going to get as many safe seats as they like, not with any makeup of the commission. As it stands, there are only 2 D+ PVI districts on the map, which is hardly a Democratic gerrymander. No party owns the congressional seats, so it's a bit ridiculous for the governor to claim the map is "thievery". Sometimes you just have to get over it, that's what Democrats in many states have to do.

They don't have to get over it when they have the power to boot the commission.

[krazen1211]

A two-third majority can remove the commissioners, but that can only be seriously used against Mathis. If either of the Democrats is removed the Democratic legislative leaders can just reappoint them ad nasuem. And no replacement for Mathis can be appointed without the consent of the Democrats. So the map will either be:

1. Drawn by this commission
2. Drawn By the State Supreme Court
3. Drawn by the 9th Circuit

Both 2. and 3. might well just impose the commission map as an interim solution if the issue looks like a partisan temper tantrum, in which case the legislature might try a mid-decade redraw and end up in court again.

They could go to referendum, but I am not sure there will be much stomach among low-info voters for it.

They ought to boot the Republican commissioners as well for stupidity, in not including 2006 election results in their 'baseline' standard.

[krazen1211]

Legislative maps are out. Not quite as egregious.

They did split the white liberal population of Tucson in half and connected both to suburbs in order to grab an extra district. They also organized the Tempe area to give the Democrats a shot at 3 districts rather than the 1 they have now, with Democrats favored in 2 of them.

Overall Democrats are capped at 13 seats.