In that case Maryland, New Jersey and Minnesota are "winnable" as well.
Minnesota is winnable for Bush. But Maryland and New Jersey?
MD: Gore by 16.3%
NJ: Gore by 15.9%
MD is out of the question unless Bush gets 56-57% of the nationwide PV. But lets look at NJ.
Lets give Bush a HUGE 4% boost in NJ for 9-11. That brings it down to 12%. Bush still needs 55% of the nationwide PV to win NJ.
State-by-state vote results can swing, irrespective of the national swing. The national popular vote swing in 2000 was roughly 3% towards Republicans.
Take New Jersey:
2000: Gore by 15.9%
2004: Kerry by 6.7%
My guess is that if the race would have been 53%-46%, Bush would have probably won New Jersey.
